Xander Bogaerts

[Station 13]

http://baseballinstinct.com/2011/08/29/prospect-instinct-xander-bogaerts-ss-boston-red-sox/#more-13363

 

The Bat

Bogaerts’ present value comes from his bat. It is starting to look like it might be a pretty impressive bat. So far, he is posting a .256/.325/.521 slash line. That doesn’t look terribly impressive on the surface. However, the first thing that jumps out is a .521 SLG and a .253 IsoP. In fact, that IsoP has only been eclipsed in the Sally League by two guys you might have heard of – Adrian Beltre and Mike Stanton. Look, yes Bogaerts has a low average right now. He doesn’t walk much and he strikes out more than you’d like. He’s also 18 and getting his first taste of stateside ball and full-season ball. Color me unconcerned. Bogaerts does currently exhibit poor pitch recognition and strike zone judgment. Again, those are things that can come with time and experience. But you can’t teach that kind of power. More impressive is that Bogaerts’ numbers are coming with a .289 BABIP and a 12% LD%. Twelve percent! That’s not a typo. It is way early but Bogaerts could be a real run producer in the future.

 

Our Instinct

 

Bogaerts is probably too raw to show up on a Top 100 list. But he’ll be a guy after next season that anyone who was brave enough to put him on their Top 100 list will be bragging every chance they get. As I said above, there is still so much time and so many games ahead of Bogaerts. With his kind of toolset, you just have no idea how things could turn out. We don’t know what kind of work ethic he has. We don’t know what his general makeup is like. We don’t know if his body is randomly susceptible to injuries. However, what we do know is that Bogaerts has shown the ability to become a special player. The two players that have put up better IsoP’s in the Sally than he has are Adrian Beltre and Mike Stanton. Beltre has been a big time hitter at times and Stanton is showing that he will likely be a big time hitter for a long time to come. Bogaerts has the raw tools to be a player somewhere between those two guys. Whether he achieves that ceiling is up to him and fate. But he is absolutely a guy to watch going forward.

[example1]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/brandon-jacobs-and-xander-bogaerts/

 

Interesting little scouting report on Bogaerts and Brandon Jacobs at fangraphs.

 

Bogaerts projects to be with the Sox by his age 20-21 season. I would put that as more likely at 22-23, but still that's pretty damn young. He's a good looking prospect for sure.

[Dojji]

I like Bogaerts' combination of athleticism and power. He wasn't afraid to take a walk either (.064 IsoD, not great, but enough to show he doesn't swing at everything in sight) so that's a good sign for his development as a hitter.

 

He's exactly the kind of player you love to have in your system. I don't think he'll stick at short, but if he doesn't, there's a number of positions he could move down to that would make him useful. And whether anyone outside the org takes him seriously or not, that bat is worth our attention,

[jacksonianmarch]

The power is intriguing for a kid his age. We'll need to see how he handles the upper levels, but he seems like the real deal. I just think he ends up as a 3b

[example1]

The power is intriguing for a kid his age. We'll need to see how he handles the upper levels' date=' but he seems like the real deal. I just think he ends up as a 3b[/quote']

 

I can't think of the last time there was a SS who people said, across the board, "there's no doubt he can stay at SS". It seems like every player fails in comparison to Omar Vizquel and is suddenly projected to be a LF.

 

I don't know anything about Bogaerts' fielding skills, but the same thing has been said about a whole lot of SS historically.

 

I'm not saying that you're saying anything wrong; you're not. It is just such a common criticism this year I don't know what an MLB SS looks like anymore as a 19 year old.

[Dojji]

I can't think of the last time there was a SS who people said' date=' across the board, "there's no doubt he can stay at SS". It seems like every player fails in comparison to Omar Vizquel and is suddenly projected to be a LF. [/quote']

 

*cough*

 

I guess maybe you mean teenagers?

 

*coughcough*

 

If Bogaerts has the choice between watching his weight carefully and sticking at middle infield, or really developing his power and projecting out at third, I want him at third. Third base isn't SS but it's still a position where good fielding skills are critical and seriously help the team.

[jacksonianmarch]

I can't think of the last time there was a SS who people said, across the board, "there's no doubt he can stay at SS". It seems like every player fails in comparison to Omar Vizquel and is suddenly projected to be a LF.

 

I don't know anything about Bogaerts' fielding skills, but the same thing has been said about a whole lot of SS historically.

 

I'm not saying that you're saying anything wrong; you're not. It is just such a common criticism this year I don't know what an MLB SS looks like anymore as a 19 year old.

 

see Cito Culver

[example1]

see Cito Culver

 

Pinstripe Ally: (2nd site I found on the kid)

"Some think he profiles better as a centerfielder"

 

...again, can there be a scouting report that just says "going to be a shortstop"?

 

It's a minor criticism (and not a criticism of Culver or Bogaerts or anyone). Just constant across most scouting reports.

 

 

And yes, Doj, I realize that Iglesias does not get that rap. He's also not supposed to be a high offensive/power hitting guy who "might play better at the corner".

[Dojji]

I think it's just the easiest way to not sound like you're gushing about a player. The fact is though that it does wind up true quite a bit (WMB was originally a shortstop, remember) and there's a certain stockiness required for most power hitters that makes playing up the middle unlikely. So it's a mix of things.

[jacksonianmarch]

Pinstripe Ally: (2nd site I found on the kid)

"Some think he profiles better as a centerfielder"

 

...again, can there be a scouting report that just says "going to be a shortstop"?

 

It's a minor criticism (and not a criticism of Culver or Bogaerts or anyone). Just constant across most scouting reports.

 

 

And yes, Doj, I realize that Iglesias does not get that rap. He's also not supposed to be a high offensive/power hitting guy who "might play better at the corner".

 

Pinstripe Alley? I scour a lot of sites and I have never heard of it. Every SR I have read on Culver is that he's quick, good hands, good arm and projects as a SS in the majors. The only question is the stick. I think he should actually ditch batting left handed. His RH swing is his natural side and he mashes righty.

[example1]

Pinstripe Alley? I scour a lot of sites and I have never heard of it. Every SR I have read on Culver is that he's quick' date=' good hands, good arm and projects as a SS in the majors. The only question is the stick. I think he should actually ditch batting left handed. His RH swing is his natural side and he mashes righty.[/quote']

 

I have no idea what pinstripe alley is. It was the second site that came up when I searched for him. This isn't about this Culver guy. It is about the tendency to say that players can't stick/shouldn't stick at SS. You cited him as an obvious example that nobody would say that about, and I found someone saying that on the 2nd site I went to. Just saying...

 

I don't care about Culver, honestly. He should go in your Yankee prospect thread.

[RedSoxFan84]

I'm also very interested to see how this kid develops. He's so young now that there is still so much uncertainty about how good he will become, but I really like his combination of size/athleticism/power. Someone mentioned him moving to 3rd when his body fully develops, but aren't we all banking on Middlebrooks to be the future 3rd baseman for us? I can see Middlebrooks becoming a quality player, so if Bogaerts ends up there, then it means that Middlebrook didn't pan out the way we hoped. Given the situation that we have now in the OF, I wouldn't mind seeing him converted into a corner OF spot as he matures. With him, Jacoby and a (hopefully) new Crawford, our OF would look ok to me. We would then also have Sweeney and Kalish as insurance as well.

[Dojji]

Never bank the future of a position on one prospect. If Bogaerts wants to be a 3B and Middlebrooks wants to be a 3B, you let them both be 3B and pray one of them makes it. It's not like you can't kick one of them to the outfield a la Alex Gordon/Casey Blake if you really need to -- especially because IIRC Bogaerts and Middlebrooks are both on the athletic side of 3B (as in, not Mike Lowell)

[RedSoxFan84]

Never bank the future of a position on one prospect. If Bogaerts wants to be a 3B and Middlebrooks wants to be a 3B' date=' you let them both be 3B and pray one of them makes it. It's not like you can't kick one of them to the outfield a la Alex Gordon/Casey Blake if you really need to -- especially because IIRC Bogaerts and Middlebrooks are both on the athletic side of 3B (as in, not Mike Lowell)[/quote']

 

 

Fair point. As I said in my post, I would have thought that Middlebrooks is the most ready of the two and is the prefered option at 3rd, and that I have no problem with Bogaerts taking that job, but I would think if he does then it means that Middlebrooks has flamed out. On top of that, I was under the impression that Bogaerts was more versatile than Middlebrooks in the amount of different positions that he can play, which is another reason that I was looking at Middlebrooks at 3rd and Bogaerts filling a need somewhere else. However, as you said, if they both compete for the job at 3rd and Bogaerts proves to be a better option, then of course I would want to see us give him that job.

[SouthieFanatic]

Id love to see Xander get some action in Boston by 2013.. Wishful thinking? perhaps

[Station 13]

Id love to see Xander get some action in Boston by 2013.. Wishful thinking? perhaps

 

2013 call up at best during September.

 

.302/.373/.509 slash line right now.

Lots of 2B, soon those will turn into HRs again.

[SouthieFanatic]

I agree and yeah nothing before that obviously, but it would be cool to develop him a bit with the big boys instead of in Portland or Pawtucket

[jacksonianmarch]

The problem with Xander is that he will likely be a 3b by that time. He's a bit too thick to play SS long term and I would expect that as he fills out over the next couple years, he'll size himself out of the position. I have said all along that Xander looks like a 3b and with WMB ahead of him, he might end up being trade bait

[SouthieFanatic]

I love Middlebrooks game, but I feel like Xander has the higher ceiling. Id hate to see him traded then erupt in another organization. Then again I use to be high on Tejeda and Beltre (2 years ago), and they seem to have hit a BIG wall in the minors. You just never really know

[jacksonianmarch]

Thing is, by the time Xander is ready, WMB will probably have been in the bigs for 1-2 seasons and you'd have a better idea of what you have. If WMB is hitting .300 with 20HR and 90RBI, then dealing Xander is going from a position of strength. If the kid is hitting .220 with 100K's in 100 games, then maybe you keep him

[SoxFanForsyth]

Bogaerts is still playing SS. Provided that the Sox have WMB at 3B, they may keep XB at SS until Middlebrooks can prove whether he's an everyday player at 3B or not. If he is, you keep Bogaerts at SS.

[Palodios]

The problem with Xander is that he will likely be a 3b by that time. He's a bit too thick to play SS long term and I would expect that as he fills out over the next couple years' date=' he'll size himself out of the position. I have said all along that Xander looks like a 3b and with WMB ahead of him, he might end up being trade bait[/quote']

 

The Red Sox have not cared about the defense of their shortstop position in a long time. If Iggy doesn't last, the seat will be open for XB.

[User Name]

The Red Sox have not cared about the defense of their shortstop position in a long time. If Iggy doesn't last' date=' the seat will be open for XB.[/quote']

 

So the reason Orlando Cabrera was brought to Boston and Alex Gonzales had not one, but two rounds as starting SS for the Red Sox, and the large signing bonus to get Iglesias were all because of offense they could provide at the SS position?

[Palodios]

So the reason Orlando Cabrera was brought to Boston and Alex Gonzales had not one' date=' but two rounds as starting SS for the Red Sox, and the large signing bonus to get Iglesias were all because of offense they could provide at the SS position?[/quote']

 

And how long did Cabrera and Gonzalez last exactly? They were stopgap solutions. The FO wants Iggy to succeed and be the shortstop of the future... but he needs to hit better than .200.

[SoxFanForsyth]

So the reason Orlando Cabrera was brought to Boston and Alex Gonzales had not one' date=' but two rounds as starting SS for the Red Sox, and the large signing bonus to get Iglesias were all because of offense they could provide at the SS position?[/quote']

 

Dude come on now. There is no argument to be made that the Sox care more about defense than offense at the SS position. Just look at ST this year. Iglesias was hands down a better defender, and it's not even close. He could be the best defensive SS in the MLB right now, but he would be a .200 hitter at best.

 

The reason they went with Aviles is because he's a better offensive player. The difference between Iggy and Aviles defensively is about equal to the difference between the two offensively as well.

[example1]

Does anyone know Iglesias's contract status? Wasn't he signed to a 4 year MLB contract? Does that mean that the usual 6 years with arb and arb2 etc., don't apply? If so, he could be a FA in a year or so, right? I could be completely wrong on this.

[Laser Show]

Does anyone know Iglesias's contract status? Wasn't he signed to a 4 year MLB contract? Does that mean that the usual 6 years with arb and arb2 etc.' date=' don't apply? If so, he could be a FA in a year or so, right? I could be completely wrong on this.[/quote']

 

Baseball-reference is saying the earliest that he can be a FA is 2018.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/i/iglesjo01.shtml

[SoxFanForsyth]

The FA clock starts based on MLB time.

[example1]

Even for MLB intl FAs? For instance, of the Sox signed DiceK to a 4 year MLB contract he would be a FA after rather than arb2 and arb3 right?

[Laser Show]

Even for MLB intl FAs? For instance' date=' of the Sox signed DiceK to a 4 year MLB contract he would be a FA after rather than arb2 and arb3 right?[/quote']

 

DiceK's situation is different. He was playing professionally overseas unlike Iggy.