Crawford Lineup Shuffle?

[SCM33]

Guys, its really not worth it. He is clearly does not have a very high baseball IQ and no matter how it is spelled out or explained, he will not understand. He is a Sox fan though, so lets not bash him.

[Six4Three]

I appreciate that but I happen to make a pretty good living off of my baseball IQ.

 

 

Are you really this stupid, or is you trollin'?

 

How would it be a fail for Pedroia if he gets into position to score more often, yet he finishes with less runs scored than Crawford? Absolutely one of the most ridiculous things I've heard on this forum, along with some of your other posts.

 

Not trollin', I thought this thread was about Crawford's spot in the lineup.

 

Even with MVP Candidate/Youklis/Ortiz hitting behind him you don't think Pedroia is under any obligation to score more than a guy who has Cameron/Drew/Scutaro/Catchers hitting behind him? He should be blowing CC"s run total out of the water. Conversely, CC would be out-scoring Pedroia significantly if he was near the top of the order. How? All through the magic of common f'n sense. Please look at all of ORS' posts, he has proven this for us all several times.

 

ORS, I honestly don't know what you think you've almost tricked me into admitting. I really don't.

[SCM33]

I appreciate that but I happen to make a pretty good living off of my baseball IQ.

 

You make a living off of your baseball IQ? You are telling us that you make money off of your baseball IQ?

 

Explain, Id love to hear it!

 

Are you a scout? Do you work for a baseball team? Maybe I underestimated you!

[iortiz]

Hehe this is becoming comic, Please don't stop!

[Emmz]

I appreciate that but I happen to make a pretty good living off of my baseball IQ.

 

I didn't realize this was THE Steve Phillips. Now it makes much more sense.

[ORS]

I appreciate that but I happen to make a pretty good living off of my baseball IQ.

Yep, file this under the 12" cock and the "I'm married to a supermodel" claims.

 

Not trollin', I thought this thread was about Crawford's spot in the lineup.

Indeed, it is.

 

Even with MVP Candidate/Youklis/Ortiz hitting behind him you don't think Pedroia is under any obligation to score more than a guy who has Cameron/Drew/Scutaro/Catchers hitting behind him? He should be blowing CC"s run total out of the water. Conversely, CC would be out-scoring Pedroia significantly if he was near the top of the order. How? All through the magic of common f'n sense. Please look at all of ORS' posts, he has proven this for us all several times.

Common sense? You must be joking. Common sense is what lead to me recognizing the contradiction in you original point, the one you refuse to address. It's' really a rather simple concept, you said the better baserunner would score more......you said the reason Crawford has scored as many runs as Pedroia, despite their spots in the lineup, was because he was a superior baserunner....however, a common sense review of the stats shows that Pedroia has been the superior baserunner, yet he hasn't scored more runs. This doesn't prove your point, no matter how many times you suggest it does, in fact, it disproves your point, quite effectively. This is what you keep running from.

 

ORS, I honestly don't know what you think you've almost tricked me into admitting. I really don't.

There's no trickery. I've directly, not offhandedly, asked for you to provide a response to the contradiction inherent to you original point. Apparently, this is something you refuse to do.

[Six4Three]

You make a living off of your baseball IQ? You are telling us that you make money off of your baseball IQ?

 

Explain, Id love to hear it!

 

Are you a scout? Do you work for a baseball team? Maybe I underestimated you!

 

 

Steinbrenner. Hank Steinbrenner, pleased to meet ya.

 

 

Just kidding, I help manage a private hedge fund that invests in, among many other things, sports related businesses.

[Six4Three]

 

Common sense? You must be joking. Common sense is what lead to me recognizing the contradiction in you original point, the one you refuse to address. It's' really a rather simple concept, you said the better baserunner would score more......you said the reason Crawford has scored as many runs as Pedroia, despite their spots in the lineup, was because he was a superior baserunner....however, a common sense review of the stats shows that Pedroia has been the superior baserunner, yet he hasn't scored more runs. This doesn't prove your point, no matter how many times you suggest it does, in fact, it disproves your point, quite effectively. This is what you keep running from.

 

 

 

In no universe, Sabermetrica or otherwise, is Pedroia a better baserunner than Crawford. He is scoring as much as Crawford by the 3/4/5 guys driving him in, not by better athleticism or instincts. No collection of stats will prove to me otherwise. If Pedroia was the better baserunner why on earth would I not want him at the top of the order?

[Dojji]

In no universe' date=' Sabermetrica or otherwise, is Pedroia a better baserunner than Crawford. [/quote']

 

Pedroia is a vastly underrated baserunner, and there's more to great baserunning than raw speed. Crawford doesn't have Ortiz ahead of him nearly often enough for me to ever believe that that's the reason he's tailed off this badly in the stolen bases department.

 

On the season Crawford is still .246/.280/.395 and has run himself into 4 outs to go with 8 successful swipes.

 

Pedroia is .263/.375/.358, and has stolen 12 bases and only run himself headlong into 2 outs.

 

By any statistical model you want to use, Pedroia's the better baserunner. AND, he's on base more TO run, which is at least as important if not FAR more so.

 

The difference in OBP alone is .095, and that's seasonlong numbers that take Pedroia's own slump into consideration. There just isn't anything to stand on to move Crwaford up. If anything, he should be moved to the 9 hole.

 

If you hit in the 2 hole your job is to be driven in. You cannot be driven in if you are not on base. This is not rocket science, and the idea is as old as baseball itself. Even "back in the day," it was recognized that at the very least the speed guys, the guys who weren't going to change the game with one swing, needed to be tough at bats and be willing to take their walks. No one ever really thought Vince Coleman was a better leadoff guy than Tim Raines either.

[ORS]

In no universe' date=' Sabermetrica or otherwise, is Pedroia a better baserunner than Crawford. He is scoring as much as Crawford by the 3/4/5 guys driving him in, not by better athleticism or instincts. No collection of stats will prove to me otherwise. If Pedroia was the better baserunner why on earth would I not want him at the top of the order?[/quote']

I don't disagree that Crawford is a better baserunner. The stats support this. He steals many more bases per year, and he scores higher in BsR annually. So, when you look at the big picture, the stats that you are now denying support Crawford as the better baserunner.

 

However, over 2.5 months of this season, Pedroia is leading in those stats. He is, period. Pedroia, so far, has been the better baserunner, and he's got superior hitters following him in the lineup. However, just because they are better doesn't mean they will always be better exactly when Pedroia (or any one specific player) is on base. Baseball is funny like that. Pedroia can lead a player with a superior skillset in stats for that skillset, and good hitters can fail to drive Pedroia in, over a short (2 month) time period.

 

This is why you look at something like linear weights, which takes seasons and seasons of data to identify what each of those events contributes to the game. It wipes away the situational context for the most part. And, a linear weights analysis shows your argument is a weak one.

[Dojji]

I don't know linear weights from shoelaces, but I do know "Crawford hasn't gotten on base as well, stolen as frequently, or avoided running into outs as well as Pedroia has."

 

In a normal year, sure, Crawford should be running circles around Pedroia, but this is not a normal year for CC. At least I hope not given how much the team has invested in him.

[Will617]

However' date=' over 2.5 months of this season, Pedroia is leading in those stats. He is, period. Pedroia, so far, has been the better baserunner, and he's got superior hitters following him in the lineup.[/quote']

 

I think it might be better (more clear) to say that Pedroia has gotten better results on the bases than Crawford has, so far this season.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Pedroia is hitting .500 with a 1.452 OPS, 4 Doubles, 1 HR, 9 RBI in last 6 games. He's absolutely scorching hot right now.

 

Crawford is hitting .352 with a 1.024 OPS, 4 Doubles, 2 Triples, 3 Homeruns, 12 RBI, and 13 Runs Scored in 13 games hitting in the 6 hole.

 

Discussion over.

[Dojji]

I think it might be better (more clear) to say that Pedroia has gotten better results on the bases than Crawford has' date=' so far this season.[/quote']

 

Why sugarcoat it?

 

Pedroia has been the better baserunner. You should take Crawford's superior talent into consideration for what will happen going forward, but that has no impact on what has been.

[DirtDog]

Any chance Sox would put Crawford a spot ahead of Ortiz? I know it's kind of ridiculous to move Ortiz or Youkilis down in the order with the way they are hitting right now. But teams wouldn't put such an exaggerated shift on Ortiz if the threat of Crawford was on first or second.

[Will617]

Why sugarcoat it?

 

Pedroia has been the better baserunner. You should take Crawford's superior talent into consideration for what will happen going forward, but that has no impact on what has been.

 

Because calling him the better baserunner sounds as if his skillset has been better than Crawford's over this period of time. Crawford undoubtedly has the better skillset, but Pedroia has gotten better results.

[Dojji]

Any chance Sox would put Crawford a spot ahead of Ortiz? I know it's kind of ridiculous to move Ortiz or Youkilis down in the order with the way they are hitting right now. But teams wouldn't put such an exaggerated shift on Ortiz if the threat of Crawford was on first or second.

 

Might think about it if Papi starts strugglin, otherwise I don't touch the lineup.

[ORS]

I think it might be better (more clear) to say that Pedroia has gotten better results on the bases than Crawford has' date=' so far this season.[/quote']

I did....

 

"so far"

 

That qualifies it as something that is not absolute and limited to a specific timeframe. The results are what they are.

[iortiz]

I did....

 

"so far"

 

That qualifies it as something that is not absolute and limited to a specific timeframe. The results are what they are.

 

Who would you chose in order to generate more Rs early/trough in the game (assign a 2nd spot)? A guy who would be 12 more times on base in 650 AB or a guy who would take 36 more bases once on base in the same number ABs.? THINK!,

 

EDIT/TIP: That difference could be analyzed via linear weights!

 

The most recent version of the formula is:

BR = .47H + .38D + .55T + .93HR + .33(W + HB ) - ABF*(AB - H) or

BR = .47S + .85D + 1.02T + 1.40HR + .33(W + HB ) - ABF*(AB - H)

Where ABF is the coefficient calculated so that the Batting Runs for a league is equal to zero:

ABF = (.47H + .38D + .55T + .93HR + .33(W + HB ))/(AB - H)

 

I would ask you all, which timeframe do you want to take/set/or would be fair? (ORS's (last 162 games) P's .369, CC's .335//// P's MVP's year .376 vs CC's last 5Y without 2008 (his best record) .355//// 2011 P's .361 CC's .283//// Last 28 P's .365 CC's .337), Which period?

 

I asked this^, and nobody answered, so... here the results according their best last 4 Ys.

 

CC's(2006,2007,2009,2010)

 

Rbat (Avg) 5.73

Rbaser (Avg) 5.73

 

P's (2007,2008,2009,2010)

 

Rbat (Avg) 13.5

Rbaser (Avg) 2

 

Rbat (Number of runs better or worse than average the player was as a hitter.)

Rbaser(Number of runs better or worse than average the player was for all baserunning events. SB, CS, PB, WP, Defensive Indifference.)

 

Said that, it's pretty simple to me. No more further discussion.

[SoxSport]

Tito's preferred order is Ells-CC 1-2. That's what he had to start the season, and that's probably where he will go eventually. But they are winning right now with the current order, so there's not much incentive to change.

[redsoxrules]

Tito's preferred order is Ells-CC 1-2. That's what he had to start the season' date=' and that's probably where he will go eventually. But they are winning right now with the current order, so there's not much incentive to change.[/quote']

 

 

And how do you know this how ? Do you speak with Tito daily ?

[seabeachfred]

Frankly, I don't want to mess with the lineup right now at all. It looks like Pedroia might be finally getting it together and Crawford seems to be handling the sixth spot well enough. You start moving CC up in the order and the question becomes do you hit him third and drop Adrian and Youk and Papi one notch down? I'd leave well enough alone and hopefully we won't have to mess with this batting order at all.

[ORS]

Tito's preferred order is Ells-CC 1-2. That's what he had to start the season' date=' and that's probably where he will go eventually. But they are winning right now with the current order, so there's not much incentive to change.[/quote']

No it isn't. It's your preferred order, and you are projecting. Also Crawford hit 3rd to start the year.

[Emmz]

Tito's preferred order is Ells-CC 1-2. That's what he had to start the season' date=' and that's probably where he will go eventually. But they are winning right now with the current order, so there's not much incentive to change.[/quote']

 

Ugh, posting what you think other people think as fact is starting to become a trend.

[SCM33]

Tito's preferred order is Ells-CC 1-2. That's what he had to start the season' date=' and that's probably where he will go eventually. But they are winning right now with the current order, so there's not much incentive to change.[/quote']

 

No its not, thats what you want.

 

If thats what Tito wanted, A: He wouldnt have moved Crawford out of the top of the lineup so quickly, and B: Crawford wouldnt have remained down there for this long.

 

Pedroia has heated up and looks like hes back to normal. For the last time, Crawford is not hitting anywhere higher than 6. Get used to it.

[redsoxrules]

LOL WTF?

 

Speed dosent do you any good WHEN YOU CANT GET ON BASE

[Scottish Red Sox Fan]

It is a bit of a dilemma what to do with Carl Crawford in the long term. It's obviously not really ideal to have him hitting 6th - 8th so what to do?

 

I notice a few people suggesting putting Crawford 2nd in the line-up and moving Dustin Pedroia to 3rd. I quite like to have a power bat hitting 3rd so I wouldn't like to see Pedroia in the 3 hole.

 

I think I would go for one of these two scenarios......................

 

Line-Up 1

 

Ellsbury

Pedroia

Gonzalez

Youkilis

Ortiz

Lowrie

Drew

Saltalamacchia

Crawford

 

What I like about this line-up is that you keep Crawford and Ellsbury hitting one after the other with 3 good RBI hitters coming behind them. If we could regularly get Crawford and Ellsbury on base together with Pedroia, Gonzalez and Youk coming to the plate then I think we could cause all sorts of mayhem.

 

It might look strange having Carl Crawford hitting 9th but he's effectively only the number 9 hitter for the first time through the line-up.

 

Line-Up 2

 

Ellsbury

Crawford

Gonzalez

Youkilis

Ortiz

Pedroia

Lowrie

Drew

Saltalamacchia

 

The controversial part of this line-up obviously is moving Dustin Pedroia down to 6th. Pedroia hits well for average so having him hitting behind guys like Gonzalez and Youkilis who get on base a lot could still work out well I think. This line-up also keeps the speed tandem at the top of the line-up which I really like.

 

Whichever line-up we go with there is one thing I really want to see more of...............CARL CRAWFORD RUNNING. We have seriously under-utilised Crawford's base stealing abilities so far this year. It seems as though Tito is giving Jacoby Ellsbury the freedom to steal bases whenever he wants but he is keeping the shackles on Crawford. I don't know why? :dunno: It's clear we're not allowing Crawford to do what he does best though when he only has 8 stolen bases in 2.5 months. Come on Tito, let the man run!

[Palodios]

Lineup 2 will never happen. In a span of 5 batters, 4 are lefthanded, and one is Salty. In the other span, you have 3 of your 4 better bats against LHP all bunched together. Tito will always prefer balance.

[Scottish Red Sox Fan]

Lineup 2 will never happen. In a span of 5 batters' date=' 4 are lefthanded, and one is Salty. In the other span, you have 3 of your 4 better bats against LHP all bunched together. Tito will always prefer balance.[/quote']

 

Fair point.

 

My personal preference, for the moment, would be for the first line-up anyway.

[italstallianion]

I actually wouldn't mind seeing Gonzalez and Ortiz hit back to back at 3 and 4 while Youk is struggling, at least against right handed pitchers. (Probably better to stay L/R/L against a lefty starter)

 

Both Ortiz and Gonzalez are hitting well against lefties thus far this season (Ortiz even has a higher OPS vs. lefties than vs. righties)

 

I wouldn't mind seeing Gonzo and Ortiz go 3/4 vs. right handed pitchers and put Youk at 5.