The Optimism Thread

[iortiz]

I feel this needs to be said. I'm not trying to be a downer on the "optimism", but I think it might need some tempering. Those that point to 2011 and how long it took them to get to .500 in comparison to this year, keep this in mind. When they righted the ship in 2011, they went on an incredible tear over the middle 4 months of the season. I don't think this current roster is capable of that. I think they'll hover around .500 through the end of May, maybe a little over, and it wouldn't surprise me if they were still around that mark by the end of June.

 

When the OF gets Ellsbury and Crawford back, Bard moves to the BP for his innings limit, Matsuzaka returns, if Melancon figures out how get AL hitters out, and Bailey returns, then I think they could go on a good run. But, right now, I'm not sure the current roster can do what last year's team did during those middle 4 months. Which is fine, just stay within shouting distance over the first 3 months, and finish strong. That should be enough to make the October dance, and they could be quite good by then.

 

I agree with pretty much of your post. 2011 season is completely different than 2012 scenario. if we stay close in the run before the All Star Game, things could turn around in our favor.

 

My only concern is how all these injured players will come back. If ok, yes, we could fight for a PO spot, If no, the scenario will be very tough and likely we won't make it IMO.

 

The most important thing right now is that those players come back 100 % healthy/at their abilities, and current key players (Gonzo, Papi, Peddy, etc.) do not get an injury/underperform.

[BornToRun]

Kuroda isn't a question mark' date=' and Pettitte is a very nice depth option. Also, the Yankees have a lights out bullpen. We have a group of arsonists.[/quote']

 

Kurodas pitched in the nl west his entire career. Those low 3 eras aren't going to transfer to the al east and pettite is 40 and hasn't pitched in over a year. Give me Lester, Beckett, clay, Dan, and prince Felix with cook and dice as depth options any day. The skanks have a better pen but ours has been lights out since the ny series and is showing encouraging signs going forward. As a package, I think we'll prove to have better pitching than new York and our offenses are a wash. We can hang with them.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I feel this needs to be said. I'm not trying to be a downer on the "optimism"' date=' but I think it might need some tempering. Those that point to 2011 and how long it took them to get to .500 in comparison to this year, keep this in mind. When they righted the ship in 2011, they went on an incredible tear over the middle 4 months of the season. I don't think this current roster is capable of that. I[b'] think they'll hover around .500 through the end of May[/b], maybe a little over, and it wouldn't surprise me if they were still around that mark by the end of June.

 

When the OF gets Ellsbury and Crawford back, Bard moves to the BP for his innings limit, Matsuzaka returns, if Melancon figures out how get AL hitters out, and Bailey returns, then I think they could go on a good run. But, right now, I'm not sure the current roster can do what last year's team did during those middle 4 months. Which is fine, just stay within shouting distance over the first 3 months, and finish strong. That should be enough to make the October dance, and they could be quite good by then.

 

I disagree with this for only 1 reason - The schedule.

 

The Sox May schedule is incredibly, incredibly weak.

 

2 v OAK

3 v BAL

3 @ KC

4 v CLE

2 v SEA

2 @ TB (Tough)

3 @ PHI

3 @ BAL

3 v TB

4 v DET

 

So all in all, in the Sox next 29 games, they have a total of 9 tough games. I'm sorry - I don't consider PHI to be a tough opponent right now. They have zero offense (Team OPS of .635. That's horrendous).

 

So in those 29 games, the Sox should be able to post an 19-10 or 18-11 record, which would put them somewhere around 30-21 or 31-20. They definitely have the horses to put up that kind of a record vs that schedule.

 

They are extremely fortunate to have this break in the schedule, though, because when Ellsbury and Crawford get back by mid-to-late June (maybe early July for Crawford), they can hang with any team in baseball.

[a700hitter]

not true about the starting rotation, true about the bullpen..

yankees are 25th overall in pitching and we are 29th..

If Buchholz can't rebound to pre-injury form, this team is going nowhere. I just don't think they can withstand Buchholz not rebounding.

[BornToRun]

If Buchholz can't rebound to pre-injury form' date=' this team is going nowhere. I just don't think they can withstand Buchholz not rebounding.[/quote']

 

I think clay will be fine and if not, I think we can survive. It'd be great and I hope he's the same guy this year but I'm not gonna say we're out of it if he isn't.

[a700hitter]

Kurodas pitched in the nl west his entire career. Those low 3 eras aren't going to transfer to the al east and pettite is 40 and hasn't pitched in over a year. Give me Lester' date=' Beckett, clay, Dan, and prince Felix[/b'] with cook and dice as depth options any day. The skanks have a better pen but ours has been lights out since the ny series and is showing encouraging signs going forward. As a package, I think we'll prove to have better pitching than new York and our offenses are a wash. We can hang with them.

I agree that we can hang with them if we have Clay, but not without him.

[a700hitter]

I think clay will be fine and if not' date=' I think we can survive. It'd be great and I hope he's the same guy this year but I'm not gonna say we're out of it if he isn't.[/quote']I don't see success without Clay. The depth options will be needed to fill in for Bard and Doubront who will not be able to go much past 150 innings. We need the top 3 guys to average around 190 innings.

[kapsis21]

If Buchholz can't rebound to pre-injury form' date=' this team is going nowhere. I just don't think they can withstand Buchholz not rebounding.[/quote']

 

i disagree its not the end of the world if Buchholz is not going to be healthy this year. I have faith in our 4 starters they will be able to get us quality innings. Bard is still a work in progress so is Doubbie, but i like them so far. they have yet to blow up a game like Lester Beckett or Buch has done once atleast so far this year. not that i want them to.. but hoping the 4 starters begin to get consistent and in route get Buch on track.

and as far as innings cap, i do see it might become an issue as Bard and Doubbie eats up innings but we have Cook and Dice-k coming back hoping they can get it stabilized even though i hate dice-k freaking stomach churn every time he pitches

[BornToRun]

i disagree its not the end of the world if Buchholz is not going to be healthy this year. I have faith in our 4 starters they will be able to get us quality innings. Bard is still a work in progress so is Doubbie, but i like them so far. they have yet to blow up a game like Lester Beckett or Buch has done once atleast so far this year. not that i want them to.. but hoping the 4 starters begin to get consistent and in route get Buch on track.

and as far as innings cap, i do see it might become an issue as Bard and Doubbie eats up innings but we have Cook and Dice-k coming back hoping they can get it stabilized even though i hate dice-k freaking stomach churn every time he pitches

 

And that allows to us out one of of bard or doubie in the pen to bolster its strength when they hit the innings cap.

[a700hitter]

i disagree its not the end of the world if Buchholz is not going to be healthy this year. I have faith in our 4 starters they will be able to get us quality innings. Bard is still a work in progress so is Doubbie, but i like them so far. they have yet to blow up a game like Lester Beckett or Buch has done once atleast so far this year. not that i want them to.. but hoping the 4 starters begin to get consistent and in route get Buch on track.

and as far as innings cap, i do see it might become an issue as Bard and Doubbie eats up innings but we have Cook and Dice-k coming back hoping they can get it stabilized even though i hate dice-k freaking stomach churn every time he pitches

It killed us last year, and with our depleted bullpen this season, I would not expect a better result.

[Dojji]

And that allows to us out one of our current best starting pitcher or our current second best starting pitcher in the pen to bolster its strength when they hit the innings cap.

[FredLynn]

I don't see success without Clay. The depth options will be needed to fill in for Bard and Doubront who will not be able to go much past 150 innings. We need the top 3 guys to average around 190 innings.

 

Another way to look at this is that Buchholz only appeared in 14 games last year and threw 82 innings. While he was here he was good, but he wasn't here much. Last year Beckett and Lester were our only two consistent effective SP. We absolutely need them to pitch well. Do we also NEED CB to pitch well this year in view of the fact that we had the dual punching bags of Lackey and Wakefield (you can add Miller and Weiland to that list too) and this year we have Bard and Doubront? Not sure about that as long as Beckett and Lester pitch well. If DiceK can come back and contribute than CB could be an afterthought on the DL if he doesn't perform and we still come out ahead. The key is our two good SP and Bard and Doubront continuing to pitch well and stay healthy.

[Dojji]

Our starters by ERA

 

1: Bard 3.72

2: Doubront 4.09

3: Beckett 4.45

4: Lester 4.65

5: Buchholz 8.87

[BornToRun]

Our starters by ERA

 

1: Bard 3.72

2: Doubront 4.09

3: Beckett 4.45

4: Lester 4.65

5: Buchholz 8.87

 

Becketts is heavily weighted by the one abortion in Detroit.

[Dojji]

Becketts is heavily weighted by the one abortion in Detroit.

 

And Bard's are weighted by not having pitched terribly enough in any one game to wind up with an outcome like that.

 

Yet.

 

But until it happens? Kid's still our best starter so far. You don't shoehorn your best starter by ERA into the pen for any reason.

[FredLynn]

Our starters by ERA

 

1: Bard 3.72

2: Doubront 4.09

3: Beckett 4.45

4: Lester 4.65

5: Buchholz 8.87

 

Small sample size. Almost meaningless at this point in the season.

[Dojji]

It's the best stats we have right now.

[a700hitter]

Another way to look at this is that Buchholz only appeared in 14 games last year and threw 82 innings. While he was here he was good' date=' but he wasn't here much. Last year Beckett and Lester were our only two consistent effective SP. We absolutely need them to pitch well. Do we also NEED CB to pitch well this year in view of the fact that we had the dual punching bags of Lackey and Wakefield (you can add Miller and Weiland to that list too) and this year we have Bard and Doubront? Not sure about that as long as Beckett and Lester pitch well. If DiceK can come back and contribute than CB could be an afterthought on the DL if he doesn't perform and we still come out ahead. The key is our two good SP and Bard and Doubront continuing to pitch well and stay healthy.[/quote']The bull pen is much weaker this year, so we need the top three to be good. The bottom of the rotation will need to be bolstered by the depth guys due to innings limitations.

[jung]

But dice is not a depth guy and while I would not have believed it until now...he does appear to be making it back on a more optimistic schedule than I would have thought possible. The way some of the other Sox pitchers returning from TJ have faired also suggests that we are going to get innings out of dice after all. Cook is a depth guy. But he is there.

 

When you combine what the Sox have this year and compare that to what they got from Wake and Lackey last year, I can't come to terms with the idea that the rotation is weaker. I can see where the pen is weaker but not the rotation even if Buch does not improve from where he is now.

 

Plus I just don't buy the idea that 150 is an absolute innings limit for Doubront and Bard. 200 may be a stretch but frankly I think 150 is a pretty arbitrary number.

 

I think the farther we get into the season the less Buch becomes some linchpin to the entire rotation because we have options this year. We had no options last year when Buch went down especially when you consider that Lackey was pitching with about half an arm. Under other circumstances he likely would have and should have been shut down. If Buch has to shut it down completely this year that leaves a hole, easier to fill I think than it was last year but a hole none the less. However we were claiming that all three of them 1,2, 3 in the rotation had to pitch to form. We were basically claiming that Buch had to return to Buch of old in order for the Sox to succeed this year. I simply no longer think that is the case.

[BornToRun]

And Bard's are weighted by not having pitched terribly enough in any one game to wind up with an outcome like that.

 

Yet.

 

But until it happens? Kid's still our best starter so far. You don't shoehorn your best starter by ERA into the pen for any reason.

 

We don't want to mark prior him either. We can't force the kid into 200 innings his first year starting. That's how you get guys hurt.

[a700hitter]

But dice is not a depth guy and while I would not have believed it until now...he does appear to be making it back on a more optimistic schedule than I would have thought possible. The way some of the other Sox pitchers returning from TJ have faired also suggests that we are going to get innings out of dice after all. Cook is a depth guy. But he is there.

 

When you combine what the Sox have this year and compare that to what they got from Wake and Lackey last year, I can't come to terms with the idea that the rotation is weaker. I can see where the pen is weaker but not the rotation even if Buch does not improve from where he is now.

 

Plus I just don't buy the idea that 150 is an absolute innings limit for Doubront and Bard. 200 may be a stretch but frankly I think 150 is a pretty arbitrary number.

 

I think the farther we get into the season the less Buch becomes some linchpin to the entire rotation because we have options this year. We had no options last year when Buch went down especially when you consider that Lackey was pitching with about half an arm. Under other circumstances he likely would have and should have been shut down. If Buch has to shut it down completely this year that leaves a hole, easier to fill I think than it was last year but a hole none the less. However we were claiming that all three of them 1,2, 3 in the rotation had to pitch to form. We were basically claiming that Buch had to return to Buch of old in order for the Sox to succeed this year. I simply no longer think that is the case.

I'd like to be able to agree with this, but I'll explain why I can't get there. We had an off season where we added no talent to the roster from the year before. We exchanged closers (a downgrade IMO). Many people felt that going into the season that we would need to be well conditioned and healthy throughout the season. It's hard for me to believe that we have improved on a 90 win season by adding nothing from outside the organization and by losing our closer, Ellsbury and Crawford to injury for huge chunks of the years. If you want also throw in under performance by Buchholz, the math just doesn't work for me. Just my opinion.

[BornToRun]

I'd like to be able to agree with this' date=' but I'll explain why I can't get there. We had an off season where we added no talent to the roster from the year before. We exchanged closers (a downgrade IMO). Many people felt that going into the season that we would need to be well conditioned and healthy throughout the season. It's hard for me to believe that we have improved on a 90 win season by adding nothing from outside the organization and by losing our closer, Ellsbury and Crawford to injury for huge chunks of the years. If you want also throw in under performance by Buchholz, the math just doesn't work for me. Just my opinion.[/quote']

 

Bard and doubront for lackey and Wakefield.

[jung]

I'd like to be able to agree with this, but I'll explain why I can't get there. We had an off season where we added no talent to the roster from the year before. We exchanged closers (a downgrade IMO). Many people felt that going into the season that we would need to be well conditioned and healthy throughout the season. It's hard for me to believe that we have improved on a 90 win season by adding nothing from outside the organization and by losing our closer, Ellsbury and Crawford to injury for huge chunks of the years. If you want also throw in under performance by Buchholz, the math just doesn't work for me. Just my opinion.

 

Well OK but that is a different kettle of fish. We were saying that Buch would have to return to the Buch of old before injuries to Ells and longer term disability to CC were even twinkles in jacko's eyes.

 

If you want to express the thought that when push comes to shove, this is a team designed to win with offense, not pitching or defense anyway and that we may just not have enough offense to overcome our pitching and defense to pull that off...I am with you there. I really wanted Youk to be in this game tonight, not scratched. I really wanted to be able to get a read on this offense against left hand pitchers against tonight's A's pitcher, Milone. I tend to think he is representative of a decent not great but not terrible LH pitcher. I would like us to win this game but I am at least as interested in seeing how we do against Milone.

 

I a bit concerned with the way we can get shut down by pitchers that are good pitchers but not exactly headed for the HOF. As I said earlier all you can do this time of year is look at match ups that you think might mean something and make judgements off of that for now.

[a700hitter]

Bard and doubront for lackey and Wakefield.

Both were with the organization last year, and subtracting Bard from the pen might actually hurt the pen more than it helps the rotation. We added nothing and now we have long term injuries. IMO, Buich under performing or getting injured would he the final straw.

[BornToRun]

Both were with the organization last year' date=' and subtracting Bard from the pen might actually hurt the pen more than it helps the rotation. We added nothing and now we have long term injuries. IMO, Buich under performing or getting injured would he the final straw.[/quote']

 

What do you mean we added nothing? Our rotation is undisputedly better.

[jacksonianmarch]

When you look at his past 355 innings of work and see an ERA of 3.10, yes, you can absolutely expect him to return to those numbers.

 

And don't give me the Phil Hughes bullcrap. He had a good 39 IP in 2010. After that he posted a 4.98 ERA for the remainder of the year over the remaining 137 IP. Buchholz has shown that when he's healthy, he is a very good pitcher.

 

You just refuse to believe that because you're a Yankee fan and you're biased, which is fine, but that's what it is.

 

Taking 4 starts of Buchholz this season and saying he's not a lock to return to the form he was in during his 355 innings prior to that is ridiculous. His velocity is picking up. It's his location that he's missing right now. That's a sure sign of rust.

 

No, you continue to wear your red glasses and refuse to listen to reason. And, I guess we can cherry pick our stats when we want to. That's cool, lol. Hughes and Buchholz's xFIP were nearly identical in 2010. Let's not paint them as being too dissimilar. But, since Buchholz wears the almighty red sox, then he must be ready to be the ace of the sox staff, lol. Both of them have proven they suck thus far in 2012 and are on the chopping block. Don't fool yourself into thinking that isnt a possibility

[a700hitter]

What do you mean we added nothing? Our rotation is undisputedly better.

Shifting pieces from the pen is not adding talent. If Buchholz gets injured, the pitching will not be better than it was last year, IMO. Good for you that you think we can withstand the injuries we have had plus a loss of Buch. I can't get to that analysis.

[jacksonianmarch]

The sox rotation is deeper. It remains to be seen if it is better, especially with Buchholz sucking ass and Lester and Beckett starting off slow (for them). I agree that Doubront and Bard have looked awesome in the rotation compared to expectations.

[Bellhorn04]

The sox rotation is deeper. It remains to be seen if it is better' date=' especially with Buchholz sucking ass and Lester and Beckett starting off slow (for them). I agree that Doubront and Bard have looked awesome in the rotation compared to expectations.[/quote']

 

Lester has been a slow starter for several years now.

[jacksonianmarch]

Lester has been a slow starter for several years now.

 

I am not worried about Lester and Beckett, FWIW. I think both will be fine. It's Buchholz's absolute s*** start to the yr that drops the performance significantly