who do you think is on pace for a HOF career?

[Emmz]

6:20am - Dougie gives Six4Three an Atomic Wedgie' date=' makes him demonstrate the art of the BP bunt with his waist band still in his arm pits.[/quote']

 

:lol:

[redsoxfan3]

I was actually just thinking about this in the case of Dustin Pedroia. In my opinion, I think he can be on track to get to 3,000 hits if he can play through the age of 40. The only downfall is the way he plays the game. He is a scrappy player and has been playing hurt throughout this season. Not to mention he has been prone to injuries in the past. If he can stay healthy and can play through the age of 40 at the level he has been able to play at, then I think there is a realistic shot he can make it. Obviously, there might be a drop off in numbers after he ages after his prime. The Rookie of the Year in 2007 and the MVP in 2008 definitely helps. The more hardware he can add to that collection the better. I know he will play until he physically cannot play anymore. I hope he ends his career in Boston, and maybe someday he will have his number retired and will make it into the HOF. There is still a long way to go and it is still fairly early on in his career.

[Orange Juiced]

I was actually just thinking about this in the case of Dustin Pedroia. In my opinion, I think he can be on track to get to 3,000 hits if he can play through the age of 40. The only downfall is the way he plays the game. He is a scrappy player and has been playing hurt throughout this season. Not to mention he has been prone to injuries in the past. If he can stay healthy and can play through the age of 40 at the level he has been able to play at, then I think there is a realistic shot he can make it. Obviously, there might be a drop off in numbers after he ages after his prime. The Rookie of the Year in 2007 and the MVP in 2008 definitely helps. The more hardware he can add to that collection the better. I know he will play until he physically cannot play anymore. I hope he ends his career in Boston, and maybe someday he will have his number retired and will make it into the HOF. There is still a long way to go and it is still fairly early on in his career.

 

Let's say Pedroia is finished by age 37, and accumulates the following career numbers:

 

1200 r, 2400 h, 150 hr, 900 rbi, 200 sb, .300/.360/.450/.810, 115 ops+

 

With, say, two WS titles, one WS MVP, one regular season MVP, a ROY award, and 6 all-star appearances.

 

Is that enough to be voted into the HOF?

[mvp 78]

Let's say Pedroia is finished by age 37, and accumulates the following career numbers:

 

1200 r, 2400 h, 150 hr, 900 rbi, 200 sb, .300/.360/.450/.810, 115 ops+

 

With, say, two WS titles, one WS MVP, one regular season MVP, a ROY award, and 6 all-star appearances.

 

Is that enough to be voted into the HOF?

 

Probably not. That's half the HR's of Ryne Sandberg.

[User Name]

He's not going to hit enough HR's for serious HOF consideration. He needs 3K hits to get in.

[mvp 78]

He's not going to hit enough HR's for serious HOF consideration. He needs 3K hits to get in.

 

If he won an MVP this year and another WS ring or two (let's say 2013 and 2015!) it could get him in if he retires at 37...

[User Name]

If he won an MVP this year and another WS ring or two (let's say 2013 and 2015!) it could get him in if he retires at 37...

 

With less than 200 HR's and less than 1,000 RBI (using the numbers posted above for reference)? Doubtful.

 

With 200 HR's, 200 SB, 2500 hits, 1,000 RBI, 2 MVP and 2 WS rings, his position (2B) may just get him in.

 

Otherwise, 3K hits would be a must IMO.

[redsoxfan3]

Let's say Pedroia is finished by age 37, and accumulates the following career numbers:

 

1200 r, 2400 h, 150 hr, 900 rbi, 200 sb, .300/.360/.450/.810, 115 ops+

 

With, say, two WS titles, one WS MVP, one regular season MVP, a ROY award, and 6 all-star appearances.

 

Is that enough to be voted into the HOF?

 

That is a tough call. Roberto Alomar is a HOF and has somewhat similar statistics to those numbers:

 

1508 R, 2724 H, 210 HR's, 1134 RBI's, 474 SB's, .300/.371/.443/.814, 116 OPS+

 

12 all-star games and five top 10 MVP finishes.

 

In hits that would rank Pedroia in the middle of the road in terms of HOF second baseman. 10 of the 19 would have more hits than him. 12 would have more runs. 8 would have more HR's. 12 would have more RBI's. 8 would have better averages. 9 would have more SB's. 12 would have a higher OBP. 8 would have a higher slugging percentage.

 

I know times are different in terms of getting into the HOF. Craig Biggio received 68.2% of the vote. 75% is required to get in. I think he will probably get in someday. He never won a ROY or MVP like Pedroia, but he by far has better offensive numbers than those final numbers you proposed for Pedroia.

 

I think it will be hard for Pedroia not to get in if he reaches 3,000 hits and consistently puts up decent numbers. I think it is a tough call if he only reaches the totals that you came up with.

[redsoxfan3]

He's not going to hit enough HR's for serious HOF consideration. He needs 3K hits to get in.

 

I agree with this. I think he will almost have to get in if he amasses 3,000 hits. Other than that, there are several factors that come into play here.

[Standing Room]

Pedroia has an outside chance, but it's unlikely. He's currently rated a 22 on his Hall of Fame probability score. The average Hall of Famer is a 50. He's already played eight years, if he plays another eight years he would be 37.

[redsoxfan3]

Pedroia has an outside chance, but it's unlikely. He's currently rated a 22 on his Hall of Fame probability score. The average Hall of Famer is a 50. He's already played eight years, if he plays another eight years he would be 37.

 

Do you have a link to this? I would love to see it.

[Standing Room]

Do you have a link to this? I would love to see it.

 

Baseball Reference actually has a couple HOF monitors.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/hof_monitor.shtml

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/hof_standard.shtml

 

Looking at the first one, I think I'd have to say that he has pretty much no chance.

[User Name]

Positional standards would really help Pedroia out if he stays at 2B his entire career though.

[Standing Room]

Those measures take positional standards in to account, it has Pedroia ranked with the same probability as Prince Fielder. They don't take advanced defensive metrics in to account though and neither do most of the voters. I think Pedroia's going to be hurt by that.

[User Name]

Those measures take positional standards in to account, it has Pedroia ranked with the same probability as Prince Fielder. They don't take advanced defensive metrics in to account though and neither do most of the voters. I think Pedroia's going to be hurt by that.

 

I understand that, but the fact that you need to take voters' subjective notions (as you just mentioned) into account. 2B is a relatively weak crop offensively, and that can only help Pedroia in the eyes of the voters.

 

By counting stats, if Pedroia keeps up his average season until age 37, he'll have borferline HOF numbers, but also all of the narrative that comes along with him (small stature, big heart, INTANGIBLES!). And there's the fact that Pedroia's fielding is very well regarded by statheads and old-timers alike.

[Standing Room]

I understand that, but the fact that you need to take voters' subjective notions (as you just mentioned) into account. 2B is a relatively weak crop offensively, and that can only help Pedroia in the eyes of the voters.

 

By counting stats, if Pedroia keeps up his average season until age 37, he'll have borferline HOF numbers, but also all of the narrative that comes along with him (small stature, big heart, INTANGIBLES!). And there's the fact that Pedroia's fielding is very well regarded by statheads and old-timers alike.

 

I just don't see it happening. He would need to double his production over the next eight years to be a borderline case according to the probability score Bill James came up with.

[Standing Room]

Scratch that, ignore everything I said. He's actually at 72, not the 30 number I saw next to his name. It looks like he likely will be a Hall of Fame caliber player.

[User Name]

I just don't see it happening. He would need to double his production over the next eight years to be a borderline case according to the probability score Bill James came up with.

 

One of the things that need to be taken into consideration is that year one of those eight years is 2006 in which he had 17 hits.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Pedroia's 162 game average is eerily similar to Jeter.

 

Pedey: .304/.372/.460/.832, 16 HR, 78 RBI, 46 2B, 2 3B, 19 SB

Jeter: .313/.382/.448/.829, 16 HR, 79 RBI, 33 2B, 4 3B, 22 SB

 

Jeters kept it up his entire career, but the way that Pedroia can tolerate pain and play through minor injuries, effectively at that, I can see him playing until he's 38-40 and getting to 3,000 hits.

[redsoxfan3]

Pedroia's 162 game average is eerily similar to Jeter.

 

Pedey: .304/.372/.460/.832, 16 HR, 78 RBI, 46 2B, 2 3B, 19 SB

Jeter: .313/.382/.448/.829, 16 HR, 79 RBI, 33 2B, 4 3B, 22 SB

 

Jeters kept it up his entire career, but the way that Pedroia can tolerate pain and play through minor injuries, effectively at that, I can see him playing until he's 38-40 and getting to 3,000 hits.

 

Ryne Sandberg said that Pedroia is "the Derek Jeter of the Boston Red Sox." That is pretty obvious. A player that will likely play his entire career in Boston. Pedroia is the type of player that you want on your team and can be considered the heart and soul of this team. Great find on the statistics.

[BornToRun]

Pedroia's 162 game average is eerily similar to Jeter.

 

Pedey: .304/.372/.460/.832, 16 HR, 78 RBI, 46 2B, 2 3B, 19 SB

Jeter: .313/.382/.448/.829, 16 HR, 79 RBI, 33 2B, 4 3B, 22 SB

 

Jeters kept it up his entire career, but the way that Pedroia can tolerate pain and play through minor injuries, effectively at that, I can see him playing until he's 38-40 and getting to 3,000 hits.

 

Aren't their road/home splits pretty close too?

[redsoxrules]

Pedroia would need to average 190 hits a year for the next 10 years to reach 3000 hits .

It's doable but unlikely IMO as there will be most likely some injuries in there.

[jacksonianmarch]

Dunno yet. Most of what separates a hall of famer from a standard garden variety good player happens after they turn 35. Lester's got a shot, but he needs to stick around and stay healthy.

 

Ortiz doesn't have a chance. Nice peak but it was too short to put up the "countin' stats." He's basically your quintessential "good player with a few great seasons." Carlos Delgado gets in ahead of him easy.

 

I'd say same for Tek. He was a very good catcher and there were a few years where he was a great catcher, but he wasn't a Hall of Fame catcher. As much as it scalds my soul to say it, Jorge Posada gets in well ahead of Tek.

 

Our biggest potential surprise Hall contender at the moment is probably Youkilis, but he'll need to play well into his early 40's at a high level to get there.

 

Youkilis isn't getting in. Ortiz isn't getting in mostly because of the PED issue and his DH effect. Had he not had the PED cloud, he'd be a borderline case because his offense is and was THAT good. The guys who put up big counting stats make it in based on what they do after 35. The guys who dominated a position for a decade will get in, even if they fade late in their career. Also, winning goes a long way as does being the leader on the team. Pedroia gets in assuming no catastrophic injury. Lester isn't even close mostly because he's basically wasted 2 yrs of his prime plus lost some yrs of his prime with cancer. He's just not that dominant. You know who is on pace to get in? Papelbon. He's already had 7 consecutive seasons of 30+ saves and he is only 32 and in the midst of a vintage yr. If he keeps this up for another 3 yrs or so, he'll end up as one of the best of all time (nowhere close to the best, btw)