Papelbon

[Soxfan1]

How possible would it be to convert Papelbon back to a starter?

[Keeper]

Really? Really?

[Will617]

He gets killed as it is enough without good off-speed stuff. I don't think 6 innings of fastballs would be any better than one.

[mvp 78]

He doesn't have the pitch selection.

 

He doesn't want to be a starter.

[Station 13]

Zero. he's declining. His fastball on some days are around 92-93. He can't throw his slider most of the time and his splitter will not save him if hitters lay off.

 

Bard has a better chance if the rotation is open.

[Ravenous916]

not impossible. they would have to stretch him out, he seems so similar to beckett ever since his shoulder subluxed, (went from 99mph fast balls to 95mph, and their windup even looks similar) but his career path would start to look like derek lowe's. (we know what happened to him) I sense that if the sox let him go, that would happen (he'd become someones 4th starter) if he doesn't rebound this season as the ace closer he used to be.

[a700hitter]

not impossible. they would have to stretch him out' date=' he seems so similar to beckett ever since his shoulder subluxed, (went from 99mph fast balls to 95mph, and their windup even looks similar) but his career path would start to look like derek lowe's. (we know what happened to him) I sense that if the sox let him go, that would happen (he'd become someones 4th starter) if he doesn't rebound this season as the ace closer he used to be.[/quote']When he was a starter, he had difficulty the second and third time through lineups.

[soxfan17881]

So now they sign Jenks. The report I heard mentioned set-up man to Papelbon. Where does that leave Bard? How likely is it that they signed Jenks with trading Papelbon in mind?

[a700hitter]

So now they sign Jenks. The report I heard mentioned set-up man to Papelbon. Where does that leave Bard? How likely is it that they signed Jenks with trading Papelbon in mind?

If Papelbon is traded, they will need to fill the bullpen spot. Also, what would they be looking to get for Papelbon. They have every position except catcher locked down.

[Palodios]

If Papelbon is traded' date=' they will need to fill the bullpen spot. Also, what would they be looking to get for Papelbon. They have every position except catcher locked down.[/quote']

 

Then let's trade him for a catcher:D

[soxfan17881]

If Papelbon is traded' date=' they will need to fill the bullpen spot. Also, what would they be looking to get for Papelbon. They have every position except catcher locked down.[/quote']

 

I follow you, but what do they need with either 2 closers (Jenks Papelbon) or 2 setup guys (Jenks Bard)? My thought was Jenks would not be interested in plain middle relief and at $6 million per, I don't think that's what Theo had in mind, either.

[BSN07]

Two heads or arms in this case are better then one.

[jacksonianmarch]

For now, you go with all 3 in the back of the pen forming a rather formidable back end assuming Jenks can get his s*** together and Papelbon doesnt regress for the 4th straight year. If Jenks shows he has the goods, then Papelbon is easily shed and the sox can go with Bard and Jenks

[Dipre]

I follow you' date=' but what do they need with either 2 closers (Jenks Papelbon) or 2 setup guys (Jenks Bard)? My thought was Jenks would not be interested in plain middle relief and at $6 million per, I don't think that's what Theo had in mind, either.[/quote']

 

Most teams don't have one setup guy, but two, and Jenks was informed that he would be setting up with a chance to win the closer's job when he was signed. He was probably won over by the chance to win.

 

They will have enough innings to go around for Jenks, Bard and Papelbon. They sure as hell did last year, and look how that turned out. Having Jenks on board is an excellent "problem" (if that's actually a problem) to have.

 

The problem with the idea of trading Papelbon isn't the team trying to trade him, it's another team trading for him with that massive salary and his downward statistical trends.

[Palodios]

I don't think there will be quite as many crucial innings as there were last year. I don't remember what the statistics were, but if I recall, the Sox had more extra innings than most teams, and more close games too. The offense will provide more runs, and I trust Doubront/Atchison to get through the 5th and 6th innings a lot more than the group in there last year.

[Dojji]

His best years as a reliever were the 2 seasons they had him working the hardest on developing the stuff it would take to start.

 

I'm just saying. Not necessarily calling for him to actually start, but force him to develop his stuff as if he could be stuck into the rotation in any given year and we'll probably see a better Papelbon. Training him as a starter in the preseason would develop exactly the skills he needs in order to succeed in the pen with a diminished heater.

[Dipre]

His best years as a reliever were the 2 seasons they had him working the hardest on developing the stuff it would take to start.

 

I'm just saying. Not necessarily calling for him to actually start, but force him to develop his stuff as if he could be stuck into the rotation in any given year and we'll probably see a better Papelbon. Training him as a starter in the preseason would develop exactly the skills he needs in order to succeed in the pen with a diminished heater.

 

Papelbon wasn't being "trained" to be a starter in neither '07 and '08, and he enjoyed spectacular success in both seasons. What you propose has no factual grounds to back it up.

 

Papelbon's problems stem from diminished stuff and control, something that a different approach (in terms of control) may help solve, but "training him as a starter" simply means stretching him out more, not necessarily widening his arsenal. During '06, for instance, he worked on his entire repertoire during ST, and was a two-trick pony during the entire season.

[BSN07]

I'd rather they didn't trade Papelbon right before his contract season. Given his personality and his lust for that big market setting deal, I think we will see a motivated Papelbon this season. 2006-2007 version more then the 2009-2010.

 

He's seemed less intensive and more cautious over the last couple years. I think it has a lot to do with him wanting to reach Free Agency healthy. I think he realizes that if he wants to set the market, he won't be doing it in Boston. And if Boston isn't going to pay him that record deal why put himself at risk? He's pretty much floated by on FB's the last two years. pretty much ignored his secondary pitches, A.K.A. the pitches that put the most stress o his arm, Slider and Splitter(I am a player and a coach, it's is an undeniable fact these types of pitches put more stress on your throwing arm, I would say the Slider is more stress on the shoulder, and the splitter is more stress on your forearm/elbow). Now after getting by the past two years with decent stats with just the FB for the most part, I'm betting this season we see a lot more variety. All he needs now is that one big year before FA and he's got it made.

 

I expect to see a highly motivated Paps using all his pitches and really showcasing himself this season for that big pay day next November/December. For thoughs reasons alone I think it's better they keep him and cash in, rather the just trading him ow because they have 2 potential replacements.

[Palodios]

I'm not sure if I buy that. He was so intense and he seemed so motivated after blowing the save to the Angels in the playoffs and 2009, but it didn't exactly go anywhere. He's been in a huge downfall for a few years, and it has shown. I've beaten this horse to death, but I think John Farrell let him over-rely on a smaller repertoire of pitches, and I think if Curt Young can get past Papelbon's pride and help him develop more variety, he will be far less predictable and could have a much improved season.

[Dipre]

Actually BSN, your statement is utterly and absolutely incorrect.

 

Here's why:

 

After a 2009 in which Papelbon lost the "feel" for his splitter, (which can happen for long periods of time, just ask Jose Contreras), he had his lower percentage of fastballs and highest percentage of breaking balls and splitters thrown career-wise.

 

Check out the difference:

 

2009:

 

FB%: 81.5, SL%: 9.2, SF%: 9.4%

 

2010:

 

FB%: 69.5% (career-low), SL%: 9..3% (career-best since becoming a closer), SF: 21.2% (Career best).

 

Disclaimer: There are an amount of pitches deemed unrecognizable by the system, and these pitches comprise the difference between the actual percentage and the amount needed to reach 100%.

 

As you can see, last year, he threw more breaking balls than ever before, but the velocity in his fastball, while still there, doesn't represent the same challenge when it doesn't have any movement, and couple that with a splitter that hitters are laying off more than ever, is a recipe for disaster when it comes to Papelbon.

[BSN07]

Papelbon wasn't being "trained" to be a starter in neither '07 and '08, and he enjoyed spectacular success in both seasons. What you propose has no factual grounds to back it up.

 

Papelbon's problems stem from diminished stuff and control, something that a different approach (in terms of control) may help solve, but "training him as a starter" simply means stretching him out more, not necessarily widening his arsenal. During '06, for instance, he worked on his entire repertoire during ST, and was a two-trick pony during the entire season.

 

Papelbon was being groomed to be a SP in 07. He moved back to the BP like 2 days before opening day. Up until that point he was thought to be one of the 5 SP. If he wasn't training to be a starter, someone should have been fired.

[Dipre]

Papelbon was being groomed to be a SP in 07. He moved back to the BP like 2 days before opening day. Up until that point he was thought to be one of the 5 SP. If he wasn't training to be a starter' date=' someone should have been fired.[/quote']

 

What about '08?

 

Arguably his best statistical season after '06, and with a BABIP around normal range (.237 in '06, .313 in '08: Career low BB/9, second-best HR/9, 10.0 K/9, 49.2 GB% (Career-best), 2.38 xFIP (career-best).

 

No starter training.

[Dojji]

Papelbon wasn't being "trained" to be a starter in neither '07 and '08' date=' and he enjoyed spectacular success in both seasons. What you propose has no factual grounds to back it up.[/quote']

 

Actually you're wrong, until the very end of spring training in 07 when Mad Julian became our 5th starter we thought it'd be Papelbon and we'd be making do with Timlin as the closer. I still remember the bizarre opera that became as we adjusted to the shift. I loved Crazy Julian very much as a starter too, he was entertaining even though he did suck and every now and again he'd do something totally awesome and wake you up.

 

The other year I was referencing was his epic '06 season where he was impossible to hit before his shoulder gave out.

[Dojji]

What about '08?

 

Arguably his best statistical season after '06, and with a BABIP around normal range (.237 in '06, .313 in '08: Career low BB/9, second-best HR/9, 10.0 K/9, 49.2 GB% (Career-best), 2.38 xFIP (career-best).

 

No starter training.

 

It's a viable position to take, but on the other hand the further removed he's been from his starter training the worse he's done too. He's not a guy who can blast it by at 97 like he could in '08, so the lessons he picked up as a starter on how to throw secondary stuff and use command etc need to be reinforced. I just don't see what it'd hurt.

[Dipre]

Actually you're wrong, until the very end of spring training in 07 when Mad Julian became our 5th starter we thought it'd be Papelbon and we'd be making do with Timlin as the closer. I still remember the bizarre opera that became as we adjusted to the shift. I loved Crazy Julian very much as a starter too, he was entertaining even though he did suck and every now and again he'd do something totally awesome and wake you up.

 

The other year I was referencing was his epic '06 season where he was impossible to hit before his shoulder gave out.

 

2008.

 

Best statistical season since his flukey 2006 (.237 BABIP).

 

No starter training.

[Dojji]

That 2006 was only flukey in the ERA sense. It was at least consistent with 2008 otherwise.

[Dipre]

So that jump in BB/9 (Papelbon's main problem) from 1.04 in '08 to 3.18 in '09 and 3.76 in '10 can be justified by his not training to be a starter?

 

Not buying it.

 

There has to be something else wrong with the guy. And that's exactly my point about the starter training (stretching him out) he can still throw hard, but what if the problem's physical (shoulder) ? You could easily aggravate it by increasing his workload.

[Dojji]

If the problem is physical, then nothing you do is gonna do him any favors, either pitching everyday or pitching a lot every 5th day. If he has shoulder problems of that magnitude he needs to get it looked at.

[Palodios]

After all the talk about avoiding 1+ inning relief appearances for him... his shoulder gets overworked anyway? It would explain a lot. Two years just seems like a long time to decline without it becoming a serious issue.

[BSN07]

Actually BSN, your statement is utterly and absolutely incorrect.

 

Here's why:

 

After a 2009 in which Papelbon lost the "feel" for his splitter, (which can happen for long periods of time, just ask Jose Contreras), he had his lower percentage of fastballs and highest percentage of breaking balls and splitters thrown career-wise.

 

Check out the difference:

 

2009:

 

FB%: 81.5, SL%: 9.2, SF%: 9.4%

 

2010:

 

FB%: 69.5% (career-low), SL%: 9..3% (career-best since becoming a closer), SF: 21.2% (Career best).

 

Disclaimer: There are an amount of pitches deemed unrecognizable by the system, and these pitches comprise the difference between the actual percentage and the amount needed to reach 100%.

 

As you can see, last year, he threw more breaking balls than ever before, but the velocity in his fastball, while still there, doesn't represent the same challenge when it doesn't have any movement, and couple that with a splitter that hitters are laying off more than ever, is a recipe for disaster when it comes to Papelbon.

 

I was speaking more about his attitude rather then on field results. Sorry if I blurred that with my ramblings. To me he just hasn't seemed the same on the mound the last couple years. I admit it is a personal observation, not exactly the best measuring stick.

 

A far as the pitches goes, well you have laid that out nicely and I don't argue with it at all. It just seemed the last couple years he had gotten away from his off speed ad was trying to get everyone one out with FB's and when he did throw something different it wasn't very good offering. Kind of like Joba's slider. He was throwing it just as much, but it wasn't nearly as effective.

 

All in all like I said I expect him to have a big year this year. Nothing like a strong performance in your walk year during a WS run to boost your value