Jayson Werth or Carl Crawford or neither? (2)

[example1]

Let's try this again with a poll. Will having Gonzalez change opinions?

[a700hitter]

Crawford. AGon hit lefties better than righties in 2010.

[bsox0407]

I really Like Crawford. His Age plays a factor along with his glove. I already know Dipre is gonna say Werth.

[example1]

I think Werth is the better fit. I love how he would fit into this lineup, ballpark and city. I think fans will come to really like his style too.

 

Hopefully his demands are somewhat reasonable because I think they need one more good offensive piece.

[Dipre]

A-Gon career splits:

 

Vs right: .919 OPS.

 

Vs left: .783 OPS

 

2010:

 

Vs right: .887

 

Vs left: .937.

 

This screams fluke.

 

Also, i've said it before and i'll say it again: Crawford is overrated and has platoon issues. His .696 OPS against lefties is embarrassing.

 

Werth plz.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

I'm sticking with Werth. Anyone who chooses neither is probably on the Beltre boat.

[example1]

Crawford. AGon hit lefties better than righties in 2010.

 

I'm not sure I understand why this matters? He hit both really well: 135R/174L OPS+. He also had a .373 BABIP, which is high and suggests statistical variance. That's not to say Gonzalez is bad against lefties like Ortiz, I just doubt we can rely on that to be consistent moving forward (look at his 2009 splits, for instance).

 

Although I would admittedly prefer to watch Crawford every day, there's really good reason to think Werth is the better player who will help them win a bit more. He makes the lineup look more like a "Red Sox" lineup too.

 

I'm not exactly sure where Crawford would fit because I don't think he's this team's #3 with Gonzalez around. Gonzalez is too good to risk not getting up in late game situations. Does that make Ellsbury hit 9th and they put Crawford at leadoff--where he has asked not to hit, apparently? Does that mean Crawford hits 5th or 6th, with mediocre power and OBP skills relative to other options like Werth?

 

Those questions need to be answered for me before the thinking side of my brain will prefer Crawford. My impulsive side would love to watch him.

[example1]

A-Gon career splits:

 

Vs right: .919 OPS.

 

Vs left: .783 OPS

 

2010:

 

Vs right: .887

 

Vs left: .937.

 

This screams fluke.

 

Also, i've said it before and i'll say it again: Crawford is overrated and has platoon issues. His .696 OPS against lefties is embarrassing.

 

Werth plz.

 

Your post's lack of words allowed you to beat me to the punch. Well done, sir.

[bsox0407]

If you sign Crawford Anywhere in the lineup he does damage. I dont know why anyone wouldnt want to bat leadoff. It means you can get on a lot and have a lot of speed and smarts.

[example1]

If you sign Crawford Anywhere in the lineup he does damage.

 

I'm not so sure. He's a player with a .803 OPS over the past 3 years, of which only .349 is OBP. I don't think I want that batting 3rd, 4th or 5th. Like it or not, Werth is the better middle order hitter (.889 over the same span, higher OBP and SLG), so if we are agreeing that Crawford likely won't hit leadoff, and he's not taking Pedroia's spot, then he's either hitting 6th, 7th or 8th. That's a lot to spend for a bottom order hitter (compare it to the cries against JD Drew's relatively puny $14m salary).

 

I realize he's great on the bases, but that seems most valuable hitting 1st or 2nd, maybe 3rd, but not instead of Adrian Gonzalez. Thanks, but no.

[bsox0407]

Its amazing to talk about a player of his caliber batting 6th.

 

Ells

Laser Show

Gonzo

Youk

Papi

Crawford(Werth)

Drew

Scutaro

Salty

[example1]

His caliber of what? Baserunning? His OBP/SLG aren't much to brag about. I'm not sure exactly how to pinpoint his offensive value. He's exciting though.

[bsox0407]

He changes the game. He changes the way the defense has to play. He can hit the ball. Not HRS and he doesn't always get on base. But he wont GIDPs as much as players like Papi and VMart or now Gonzo will. He has the ability to turn that single into a triple.

[BSN07]

Werth is the better fit as things stand currently.

[ORS]

His caliber of what? Baserunning? His OBP/SLG aren't much to brag about. I'm not sure exactly how to pinpoint his offensive value. He's exciting though.

Linear weights.

 

Think of offense as an equation.

 

1B + 2B + 3B + HR + BB + IBB + HBP + SB + Sac + SacFly + OUTS + CS + HIDP = Runs

 

That's a 13 variable equation, and thirteen equations would give you enough data to solve a system of equations. There are 30 equations every year, and you can take the averages over the years, which means they've kind of got a good idea of the run value of each event. In fact, I've seen some forms where they break down the outs into K, FB, GB, etc (the number of total equations per year, 30, one for each team, allows this.....ie, they can go up to 30 variables).

 

BBRef keeps linear weights performance under the "Advanced Batting" table, found by clicking the "Batting" tab on the player page. The number they list is called BtRuns, and it is relative to league average (for all players, not position depedent).

 

[table]Player|2008|2009|2010

Crawford|-9.0|13.7|26.4

Werth|12.5|25.4|38.9[/table]

 

The edge clearly goes to Werth, however, Crawford is pretty consistenly good for about a +15 in UZR, and Werth, like many average fielders, tends to go through some ups and downs.

 

Overall, it's probably a wash. I'd give the edge to Werth on two things, handedness in his new home park, and the fact that he can play a more premium defensive position (RF vs. LF)

[SoxSport]

I go with Werth because the Sox have two Crawford-type players in Ellsbury and Kalish, and they need another RHD bat to offset the loss of Beltre and VMart. Besides, I think they can get Werth for cheaper--there is steeper competition for Crawford, since the Yankees are obsessed with LHd hitters and pitchers, and the Angels are a good fit.

[Palodios]

Werth definitely makes a lot more sense now than it did Friday afternoon. He fits seemlessly into the team, as many others have projected a quite perfect L/R/L/R/L/R/L/S/S lineup. The big factor is whether or not they will need to outbid the Tigers-- who are also interested in taking Ordonez back for RF, so they may not be interested since they already have Jackson and some solid younger options. I think either Ordonez or Werth would be great options for our OF-- no arbitration for Ordonez--so just getting one of those guys would be fine with me. So, if they beat out the Tigers on Werth, they will still get a 1st rounder from the tigers. But if they get Ordonez, they keep their own 1st rounder. So I think it works pretty well for them in both scenarios.

 

The problem with Crawford is that the Red Sox have some huge problem against signing defensive catchers. Salty/Varitek/Vmart... those guys will never throw out Crawford in a million years. I think Crawford is the kind of guy I'd rather not have to face, much more so than I feel about say the Werth going to the Yankees.

[mvp 78]

Werth - RH, cheaper, shorter deal, similar production, would mash at Fenway

[Emmz]

Werth. Think everyone else has said it, I just love the way he fits in to this.

[italstallianion]

I'm sticking with Werth. Anyone who chooses neither is probably on the Beltre boat.

 

 

Or (as I've seen on other sites) the "trade whatever prospects we have left for Justin Upton" boat.

[GoBruins2011]

Just say no to Upton.

[italstallianion]

Just say no to Upton.

 

 

That might be the first correct thing you've said in 120+ posts. Well, there's gotta be a first time for everything.

[Keeper]

Werth all the way.

[italstallianion]

Look, I think that Crawford is the better player, and he's definitely more exciting, but I think that Werth is a better fit for the team. First, Werth is a little older so he probably isn't trying for as many years, and his contract should be for a smaller AAV than Crawford (at least by demands), so with the amount of money I think we're going to have to shell Gonzalez, I think that we'd save money on Werth over Crawford.

 

Second, I think that Werth is a more balanced player. Crawford is about speed, a little power, good defense (range) and more speed. While nobody will deny that Crawford is a great player, I just think that pure speed isn't something that the Red Sox regularly utilize. In addition, while his range is impeccable, we already have Ellsbury in Center, so having Crawford in one of the corner OF spots (especially LF in Fenway) doesn't properly utilize his speed defensively. In addition, Werth has the ability (speed and arm) to play RF which can move Nancy Drew to left to "hide" him from his lack of speed and potentially lessen his risk of (daily) injury.

 

Not to mention that Werth is right handed in a division that has Sabathia, Price, and quite possibly Lee. Werth has the power to tee off on the Green Monster, and he has very underrated speed as well. Werth is a more balanced player that can really FILL OUT the stat sheet. He's also a very efficient baserunner. His SB CS numbers when compared with Crawford are

 

2008: 20/1 vs. 25/7

2009: 20/3 vs. 60/16

2010: 13/3 vs. 47/10

 

And that's including the fact that Crawford played in the same division as the Red Sox and the Yankees, meaning that he can absolutely run track on Martinez and Posada which helps his SB numbers.

 

The only thing I'm worried about with Crawford is him going to the Yankees. I think we'd be hurt more with Crawford on the Yankees than Werth, but with the Yankees likely going to sign Lee, then I don't see them signing Crawford as well. I see Crawford being on a team like the Angels where his style of play fits better with the mentality of the team.

 

For all of those reasons, plus what's already been said in the thread, I think that Werth should be the player the Sox sign, then put in RF and move Nancy Drew to LF.

[Palodios]

Honestly, I could care less about Drew's health. He's much better in the outfield than Werth is, and if his health plummets, he's done here and gets replaced by Kalish next year anyway.

[redsoxrules]

Look, I think that Crawford is the better player, and he's definitely more exciting, but I think that Werth is a better fit for the team. First, Werth is a little older so he probably isn't trying for as many years, and his contract should be for a smaller AAV than Crawford (at least by demands), so with the amount of money I think we're going to have to shell Gonzalez, I think that we'd save money on Werth over Crawford.

 

Second, I think that Werth is a more balanced player. Crawford is about speed, a little power, good defense (range) and more speed. While nobody will deny that Crawford is a great player, I just think that pure speed isn't something that the Red Sox regularly utilize. In addition, while his range is impeccable, we already have Ellsbury in Center, so having Crawford in one of the corner OF spots (especially LF in Fenway) doesn't properly utilize his speed defensively. In addition, Werth has the ability (speed and arm) to play RF which can move Nancy Drew to left to "hide" him from his lack of speed and potentially lessen his risk of (daily) injury.

 

Not to mention that Werth is right handed in a division that has Sabathia, Price, and quite possibly Lee. Werth has the power to tee off on the Green Monster, and he has very underrated speed as well. Werth is a more balanced player that can really FILL OUT the stat sheet. He's also a very efficient baserunner. His SB CS numbers when compared with Crawford are

 

2008: 20/1 vs. 25/7

2009: 20/3 vs. 60/16

2010: 13/3 vs. 47/10

 

And that's including the fact that Crawford played in the same division as the Red Sox and the Yankees, meaning that he can absolutely run track on Martinez and Posada which helps his SB numbers.

 

The only thing I'm worried about with Crawford is him going to the Yankees. I think we'd be hurt more with Crawford on the Yankees than Werth, but with the Yankees likely going to sign Lee, then I don't see them signing Crawford as well. I see Crawford being on a team like the Angels where his style of play fits better with the mentality of the team.

 

For all of those reasons, plus what's already been said in the thread, I think that Werth should be the player the Sox sign, then put in RF and move Nancy Drew to LF.

 

Werth is the better overall player , the stats back it up

[italstallianion]

I don't know about that. I think that Crawford has been more consistent whereas Werth seemed to spike a bit last year.

[Will617]

I don't know about that. I think that Crawford has been more consistent whereas Werth seemed to spike a bit last year.

 

Werth's had wOBAs the last four years of .385, .382, .382, .397. While the last year is certainly a spike, that's not to say that Werth has been horrible the previous few years. Meanwhile, Crawford's best wOBA is .378, and it came last season.

[WhiskeyBreath]

Neither.

 

I wouldn't have minded if they signed Werth to a reasonable deal. Anything less than $85MM or so.

 

No freakin' way on Crawford. He is not worth over $100MM dollars. Sorry, I just don't value SB as much as others. I know he brings a lot more than just base running to the table but If you are going to command elite money like he will get, you better be able to slug the s*** out of the baseball.

[Keeper]

Now that Werth is off the table, trading for Upton sounds like a sensible idea to me.