The Official 2010 Hot Stove Thread.

[BSN07]

Ok, then let me re-phrase:

 

First off, it's not a given that Bard will be the closer if Papelbon goes, it could be Jenks. Second, and i mentioned this before, it's very likely that if Papelbon does go they sign an elite reliever to keep the back end of the bullpen as strong as possible, which is why i make mention of the strength of the closer market for next offseason.

 

Now, my other point is that Papelbon returning to the Sox is not impossible. And that's a fair and valid point. I haven't pledged my undying allegiance to him, i'm just saying that if he does good in 2011 he could be back. Simple as that.

 

There are some good RP on the market next season. But non of them are far and away better then Paps. And I don't think many of them have done it in the AL East. It maybe a more "go with what you know" scenario next off season when it comes to the BP.

[a700hitter]

12m? I would have non-tendered him and throw the money at Fuentes.

Of course a Yankee fan would like that move. Every other team in the AL East would be happy about it.

[Dipre]

There are some good RP on the market next season. But non of them are far and away better then Paps. And I don't think many of them have done it in the AL East. It maybe a more "go with what you know" scenario next off season when it comes to the BP.

 

Which is kinda what i've been saying all along.

[Spudboy]

Of course a Yankee fan would like that move. Every other team in the AL East would be happy about it.

 

Exactly.

[Dipre]

It's d'ohny. What'd you guys expect?

[SoxFanForsyth]

This makes no sense.

 

The Sox will not sign Papelbon if he has another year like 2010.

 

If Papelbon has another year like 2008, he'll be signing for a big dollar, multi year contract, which the Sox will not want to do since they can save money internally or on the market.

 

So under what circumstances will the Sox sign him?

 

Papelbon has better odds of repeating his 2008 performance than the Sox re-signing him.

[SoxFanForsyth]

By the way - This is something that I've thought of during the season last year and forgot to mention.

 

Now this may just be coincidence, but it seems as though it has a little bit of weight to it.

 

In 2009, from Opening Day to May 12th, Papelbon posted a 1.20 ERA and had 9 saves in 15 IP.

 

From May 13th - the end of the season, Papelbon posted a 2.04 ERA (not including the ALDS). Fantastic numbers, but somewhat of a drop.

 

Fast forward to 2010. He posts a 3.90 ERA. Blows 8 saves, had a bad season. So what changed?

 

On May 13th, 2009, a guy named Daniel Bard came up. Throwing straight gas, touching 100, making Papelbon's pitches look like they're about 90.

 

I'm not saying that's the reason for Pap's recent struggles, but it's something to think about. Obviously they rarely face the same hitters, but it could cause players timing to get a bit better on Pap's stuff.

[SCM33]

 

If Papelbon has another year like 2008, he'll be signing for a big dollar, multi year contract, which the Sox will not want to do since they can save money internally or on the market.

 

So under what circumstances will the Sox sign him?

 

Papelbon has better odds of repeating his 2008 performance than the Sox re-signing him.

 

I tend to agree with us.

 

Its not that I dont want him here, its that he will price himself out of here whether its years or money based on performance.

 

Sooner or later hes going to want that multi year deal, before he can no longer demand it.

[SoxSport]

Pap gets a raise after a lousy season. Now why didn't I major in Baseball.

[jacksonianmarch]

How does he price himself out of the second best market in baseball? I think Paps will have to take a pay cut regardless on the open market. Soriano had a ridiculously amazing season last yr and didnt get $12 mil a yr on the open market (he ended up just under that). How does Paps plan on beating that?

[SCM33]

How does he price himself out of the second best market in baseball? I think Paps will have to take a pay cut regardless on the open market. Soriano had a ridiculously amazing season last yr and didnt get $12 mil a yr on the open market (he ended up just under that). How does Paps plan on beating that?

 

You might be right, but if hes looking for a long term deal, that is not happening here, so essentially he prices himself out or Boston in terms of contract length. Sooner or later he will wants a long term deal before his arm falls off.

 

Even if he takes a pay cut, but gets offered a deal over 3 years, is it really a pay cut when hes essentially living year to year in Boston?

[jacksonianmarch]

If he has a similar season, 3+ERA, sub 1.30WHIP, then he'll get a 3 yr deal, probably in the range of $24 mil total. And if he does, then I highly doubt the sox offer arb.

[Station 13]

Pap gets a raise after a lousy season. Now why didn't I major in Baseball.

 

His first 4 seasons were ELITE, remember that. It's why he is paid so much when many teams will non-tendered him.

[jacksonianmarch]

Yeah, but you're paying Paps for what he has done a few yrs ago vs what he did over the past 2 seasons. There are some very encouraging signs with Papelbon, that being his K rate and IP. His IP have been remarkably consistent, meaning that you probably dont have to worry about a major injury risk from a major innings jump. The K rate also has been 9.88/9IP or higher for the past 5 seasons with last yrs being 10.21. Also good. The strange thing is that the first 3 seasons are not likely to be repeated. Take a look at his BAA in yrs 1 and 2 of closing. .167 and .146. Seriously, those are hard to do, especially in back to back yrs. And in 2008, he was also dominant (.223BAA), but he only walked 8 batters in 69IP, his next lowest total is 13. Therefore, his 2006-2008 seasons have major outliers that make his numbers a bit harder to appreciate. I think his 2009 season is probably more like his ability, although his ERA was very low compared to his solid 1.15WHIP. I think he settles out more as a 2.30-2.60ERA guy with a WHIP around 1.20 this yr. Numbers that should get him a nice 3 yr deal at probably a 1/3 pay cut per season compared to his arb number

[Will617]

Scenario A: Paps has a terrific year, Sox throw money at him because they don't have other needs, everyone's happy

Scenario B: Paps has a mediocre year, Sox throw slightly less money at him because that's still pretty good (and decently cheap), most people are happy

Scenario C: Paps collides with Adrian Beltre trying to cover 1st base, misses season with rib fractures, toughness questioned. Brought back on relatively cheap contract, some people are happy.

 

Think it's more likely that Papelbon is brought back in each of the above cases. Although, I think that if Papelbon has a good year (i.e. significantly better than last year), that's the least likely scenario for him to return.

I don't think that he's lost anything from a stuff perspective, I think that it's more of an issue of approach and that is fixable.

[SCM33]

You are all basically agreeing with me, while arguing at the same time.

 

Bottom line, Paps will not return here regardless of how well he does. The better he does, the longer deal he looks for at this point. The Sox have not gone beyond 1 year with him in any of the negotiations, why would they as he gets older?

[YAZMAN]

How many days until pitchers and catchers report?

 

 

AAAAARRRRGGGGGHHH!!!!

 

Give me warmth, give me daylight, GIVE ME MY SOX!!!!

[SoxSport]

The Red Sox have a better closer in waiting in Bard. And much cheaper.

 

Why would they want to re-sign Pap for the big dollars and long-term it's going to take? Even if the guy turns around his obvious decline.

 

The hand writing is on the wall. Barring any sudden turn of events this year with Jenks or Bard, Pap is gone no matter what he does.

[bsox0407]

How many days until pitchers and catchers report?

 

 

AAAAARRRRGGGGGHHH!!!!

 

Give me warmth, give me daylight, GIVE ME MY SOX!!!!

 

20 Days Til Truck Day.

 

26 Days until Pitchers and Catchers Report.

[VA Sox Fan]

How many days until pitchers and catchers report?

 

 

AAAAARRRRGGGGGHHH!!!!

 

Give me warmth, give me daylight, GIVE ME MY SOX!!!!

 

:thumbsup::thumbsup:

[Dipre]

I'm going to laugh so hard if the Sox re-sign Papelbon.

[BSN07]

The Red Sox have a better closer in waiting in Bard. And much cheaper.

 

Why would they want to re-sign Pap for the big dollars and long-term it's going to take? Even if the guy turns around his obvious decline.

 

The hand writing is on the wall. Barring any sudden turn of events this year with Jenks or Bard, Pap is gone no matter what he does.

 

Bard is the more promising arm. But let's not forget he has been primarily a set-up man. He hasn't closed games on a consistent basis yet. And we shouldn't just assume it will be a seamless transition. I wouldn't mind them giving Bard a shot to Close. But if Paps comes back after a decent year, I'm fine with them keeping Bard in the 8th inning spot where he's been dominant.

 

 

I was probably one of the first beating the" trade Papelbon drum" because he wants huge money and they will never be able to re-sign him. But his value has come down out of the clouds and the market has changed. Especially with Soriano and Mo being already signed in NY. So I have stop beating that drum and am waiting the season out to see how it goes and whether or not I want them to bring him back next year and beyond.

[DirtDog]

Scenario A: Paps has a terrific year, Sox throw money at him because they don't have other needs, everyone's happy

Scenario B: Paps has a mediocre year, Sox throw slightly less money at him because that's still pretty good (and decently cheap), most people are happy

Scenario C: Paps collides with Adrian Beltre trying to cover 1st base, misses season with rib fractures, toughness questioned. Brought back on relatively cheap contract, some people are happy.

 

Think it's more likely that Papelbon is brought back in each of the above cases. Although, I think that if Papelbon has a good year (i.e. significantly better than last year), that's the least likely scenario for him to return.

I don't think that he's lost anything from a stuff perspective, I think that it's more of an issue of approach and that is fixable.

 

Don't forget Bard may struggle a bit. Not llikely, but possible. Jenks could be the next Gagne. We may need Papelbon. Who knows, stranger things have happened.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Bard is the more promising arm. But let's not forget he has been primarily a set-up man. He hasn't closed games on a consistent basis yet. And we shouldn't just assume it will be a seamless transition. I wouldn't mind them giving Bard a shot to Close. But if Paps comes back after a decent year, I'm fine with them keeping Bard in the 8th inning spot where he's been dominant.

 

 

I was probably one of the first beating the" trade Papelbon drum" because he wants huge money and they will never be able to re-sign him. But his value has come down out of the clouds and the market has changed. Especially with Soriano and Mo being already signed in NY. So I have stop beating that drum and am waiting the season out to see how it goes and whether or not I want them to bring him back next year and beyond.

 

Two questions to answer here.

 

1. Do you think, if Papelbon does put up 2008 type numbers, that he will be willing to take a significant pay cut or go year to year?

 

2. If Papelbon puts up 2010 type numbers, would you want him back?

 

The answer to both of these questions is no. Papelbon has clearly stated that he wants to pave the way for future closers in terms of money, and if he puts up 2008 type numbers, he's going to demand a multi year deal with an AAV of 10-12mm. If you want to commit $20-30mm to a closer when we have Bard and Jenks ready to take the ball, then I think you and Theo are on two different pages.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I'm going to laugh so hard if the Sox re-sign Papelbon.

 

You still haven't supplied a single example of when a Papelbon signing is even remotely considered. If he has a 2008 type year, and demands a paycut and a 1 year deal? That's basically what you're insinuating would have to happen. That's crazy.

 

Please, explain how this deal will get done. What has to happen in 2011 for Papelbon and what kind of a contract would the Sox consider?

[SoxFanForsyth]

Scenario A: Paps has a terrific year, Sox throw money at him because they don't have other needs, everyone's happy

Scenario B: Paps has a mediocre year, Sox throw slightly less money at him because that's still pretty good (and decently cheap), most people are happy

Scenario C: Paps collides with Adrian Beltre trying to cover 1st base, misses season with rib fractures, toughness questioned. Brought back on relatively cheap contract, some people are happy.

 

Think it's more likely that Papelbon is brought back in each of the above cases. Although, I think that if Papelbon has a good year (i.e. significantly better than last year), that's the least likely scenario for him to return.

I don't think that he's lost anything from a stuff perspective, I think that it's more of an issue of approach and that is fixable.

 

Scenario A: Paps prices himself out of the Red Sox, the Sox don't need Papelbon with Bard and Jenks. The only way this happens is if Bard gets hurt and Jenks implodes. Also - The Sox would be more likely to spend bigger on a DH with versatility than Papelbon, as well as a 5th man in the rotation to take over for DiceK, depending on Doubront, Britton, and Ranaudo's 2011 success.

 

Scenario B: This would be the 3rd consecutive mediocre year for Papelbon, and the Sox, after just the 2nd mediocre year, showed their willingness to depart from him when they gave Jenks a deal that outlasts Papelbon's contract and includes closer incentives, plus offering Mo a 3 year deal. A 3rd consecutive mediocre year would mean Bard, Jenks, or FA market for the 2012 closer.

 

Scenario C: Probably the most viable option. Beltre's knees, however, have been downgraded to a Weapon of Mass Destruction, as stated by President Obama on 11.7.10.

[Dipre]

You still haven't supplied a single example of when a Papelbon signing is even remotely considered. If he has a 2008 type year, and demands a paycut and a 1 year deal? That's basically what you're insinuating would have to happen. That's crazy.

 

Please, explain how this deal will get done. What has to happen in 2011 for Papelbon and what kind of a contract would the Sox consider?

 

Papelbon has a good year (2008 repeated), and the Sox decide they feel comfortable keeping him, Bard and Jenks together as a three-headed monster at the back of the pen, so they decide to set a limit on him at 3/36 and put that offer on the table, Papelbon tests the open market, doesn't receive an offer that matches the 3/36 offered by the Sox and decides to return.

 

You don't know the value the Sox have currently set for Papelbon or the value they will set for him after the year. None of us do, and discarding the scenario because you think you know the FO's plan is an exercise in futility. He may be back, he probably won't, but you don't know that, and neither do the rest of us.

 

However, the possibility exists (no matter how much you stomp your feet and scream otherwise) that circumstances may have him returning for the Sox after '11. Spare me the "opinion" part of the argument and focus on the objective viewpoint of the issue, which is:

 

He likely won't be back, but there's a chance he could be, and neither i, nor anyone here, can discount either possibility, because we don't know the FO's actual line of thinking. All we have are speculation and press clippings.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Wow. That's all I can say. Apparently you have it set in your mind that the only reason I think the Sox aren't going to sign Papelbon to another contract is because I don't like him.

 

For someone who constantly gripes about people not reading his comments, you sure appear to have not read any of mine.

 

I'm not even going to address that any further because you can go back to a number of my posts and see why I think it would be a bad move to sign Papelbon to another contract, regardless of his 2011 stats.

 

You really, honestly think that the Sox are going to consider signing Papelbon to a 3/$36mm contract if he comes back and puts up 2008 type numbers?

 

That's crazy when Zumaya (if he bounces back from injury, could be a fantastic 8th inning guy for Bard/Jenks), Valverde, Broxton, Bell, Gonzalez, possibly Soriano if he opts out, Matt Capps, etc are all available, plus you've got internal options that would come at a fraction of the cost.

 

No possible way that the Sox spend $12mm on Papelbon for 3 more years after his recent decline. If he was putting up 2008 numbers consistently for the past 2 years, I'd say ok. But that would be a huge risk to assume that Papelbon would come back and be worth $12mm per year for the next 3 years.

[Dipre]

Holy s***, what the f*** are you talking about? Where did i mention you disliking Papelbon in my previous post? I was talking about you discounting the possibility of his coming back as if it was a 100% certainty.

 

You asked me for a scenario in which Papelbon stays, i gave you a scenario in which Papelbon, stays, and your counter is once again pretending to know the value the Red Sox have or will place in Papelbon.

 

Let me re-say it:

 

The possibility that Papelbon comes back exists, it's unlikely, but it exists, you're just arguing for the sake of arguing, because you don't know the FO's line of thinking or how much money they would be willing to spend on Papelbon based on his 2011 performance, you also don't know how Bard and Jenks will perform, or how interested the FO would be to keep all three of them together if they all dominate.

 

There are a number of realistic scenarios in which Papelbon could stay on the Red Sox, i'm not saying he will, or advocating for him to stay, which is another reason to ask:

Do you read through my posts?

 

Everyone else seems to get it.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Don't assign opinions to me that i haven't presented. I don't like or dislike Papelbon specifically' date=' but i'm rather torn on him, because i don't know whether his performance problems are fixable, but if they are, i'm presenting a completely plausible scenario of him returning to the Red Sox under the right conditions, which is the exact opposite of what you're doing,[b'] since you're the one who doesn't want him back, and admittedly so, regardless of 2011 performance because you don't like him.[/b] So who's the one basing their opinions on the "like" or "dislike" game?

 

Stomp your feet and scream your dislike for Papelbon all you want. There's a chance, if minuscule, he comes back, and your dislike of him shouldn't blind you from the possibility.

 

Also, please don't fabricate and assign opinions for me based on things i have not said. Thank you.

 

RIGHT f***ING THERE!!!!!!!!!!!!!! READ THROUGH YOUR OWN POSTS BEFORE YOU ASK IF I'VE READ THROUGH THEM!!!!!