The Official 2010 Hot Stove Thread.

[EXman369]

According to MLB.com Uggla has a 5 year extenstion with the braves, and Adam LaRoche has agreed to a 2 year deal with the nats.

 

1. Uggla- http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110104&content_id=16391198&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb

 

2. LaRoche- http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110104&content_id=16390488&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb

[example1]

The Sox will have picks 19, 26, 36 and 41, and maybe 50 if Lopez signs somewere. That's one of the best scenarios that could have possibly happened this offseason. They will have a monster draft.

[Dipre]

Red Sox have acquired Max Ramirez, who was dessignated for assignment by the Rangers.

 

Apparently, the Boston Red Sox have become the recycle bin for the Rangers' franchise's discarded catchers.

[Palodios]

I wonder if Taylor Teagarden is available.

[BigPapiEnFuego]

Red Sox have acquired Max Ramirez, who was dessignated for assignment by the Rangers.

 

Apparently, the Boston Red Sox have become the recycle bin for the Rangers' franchise's discarded catchers.

 

At least we didnt have to trade Mike Lowell for him

[diony]

The Sox will have picks 19' date=' 26, 36 and 41, and maybe 50 if Lopez signs somewere. That's one of the best scenarios that could have possibly happened this offseason. They will have a monster draft.[/quote']

 

That's the biggest plus of their offseason, rather than A-Gon & co.

[a700hitter]

AP source: Red Sox add reliever Tony Pena Jr.

By Howard Ulman

AP Sports Writer / January 5, 2011

 

BOSTON—A person familiar with negotiations says the Red Sox have agreed to a minor league contract with right-handed reliever Tony Pena Jr.

 

The person spoke Wednesday on condition of anonymity because the team has not made an announcement.

 

Pena, the son of former Boston catcher Tony Pena, became a pitcher for Kansas City in 2009 after playing shortstop with the Atlanta Braves and the Royals. Last season he was in the San Francisco Giants system where he pitched in 53 games, all in relief, at Double-A Richmond, where he had a 2.35 ERA, and Triple-A Fresno, where his ERA was 6.60.

 

The agreement was first reported by ESPN.com.

 

The Red Sox announced two other moves, claiming catcher Max Ramirez on waivers from Texas and designating righty reliever Matt Fox for assignment.

[Station 13]

Looks like they're not touching the RF fences.

[bsox0407]

Looks like they're not touching the RF fences.

 

yeah i saw that. I heard that since Fenway has Landmark status it would have been a real bitch to get the permits and whatnot.

[Dojji]

Did they really sign Tony Pena, Jr? The guy who 2 years ago was a crap SS? lol.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Not sure if anyone has posted the contract on Beltre.

 

5 years/80mm with a $16mm option for a 6th year, so AAV of $16mm and a total contract of 6 years/96mm.

 

I'm sure he'll be a .280-.300 hitter with about 24-26 bombs a year. I hope the best for him, loved watching him play in Boston.

 

But how could you not?! Dude had a 1.011 OPS with RISP last year. So sick.

 

10mm was a steal, although for CBT purposes he was only recorded at $7mm last year, because of his option, and since he declined the option, we still have $3mm on the CBT books for him this year.

[EXman369]

My dad was listening to the laser show on WEEI and pedroia said that hes going to miss him as a teamate and beltre was one of the most hardworking players on the sox last year

[BSN07]

Looks like they're not touching the RF fences.

 

That sucks. I was looking forward to them moving in.

[Ravenous916]

My dad was listening to the laser show on WEEI and pedroia said that hes going to miss him as a teamate and beltre was one of the most hardworking players on the sox last year

 

Youk is great, but Beltre did make me question who I would like better? Did anyone else feel this way, or is it clear that Youk at 3rd is the better option.

[BSN07]

Youk is great' date=' but Beltre did make me question who I would like better? Did anyone else feel this way, or is it clear that Youk at 3rd is the better option.[/quote']

 

For what Beltre just got paid, Youkilis hands down. Looking at it from purely a talent stand point, Beltre is the better defender now. Youkilis is the more consistent hitter. Youkilis is younger. I think the overall package of Youk going forward is better.

[Palodios]

A career .891 hitter coming off 3 prime years at a club friendly contract. Or a .791 hitter who has never put two back-to-back great offensive seasons together that is costing... oh, not much less than Cliff Lee.

[SoxSport]

The Rangers may have overpaid for Beltre, considering his appetite for contract years. But he should be able to come close to last years' power numbers in Texas, but I wonder if he'll hit .300 again. He's not a high OBP guy.

 

The Angels want to be a LaLa big market team, but they haven't spent like one in the offseason. I hope they keep Soriano from the Yankees. What are they waiting for.

[Will617]

The Rangers may have overpaid for Beltre, considering his appetite for contract years. But he should be able to come close to last years' power numbers in Texas, but I wonder if he'll hit .300 again. He's not a high OBP guy.

 

The Angels want to be a LaLa big market team, but they haven't spent like one in the offseason. I hope they keep Soriano from the Yankees. What are they waiting for.

 

I really don't get why people have this perception that players somehow magically turn it on in contract years. But I'm really too lazy to express all of my opinions on this, so...

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/adrian-beltre-is-not-motivated-by-contract-years/

Now, I think that the Rangers may have overpaid for Beltre (but then again, pretty much everyone on the market has been overpaid for at the top). And I don't mean to single you out, but I just find this idea very common and not really close to true.

[Will617]

In other news, Carl Crawford nearly crashed when he heard about his contract with the Sox.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew/post/Carl-Crawford-shouldn-t-drive-while-receiving-bi;_ylt=AkDcwDf75zORDsIu5bPGCXURvLYF?urn=mlb-304266

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

I'm sure anyone would lol.

[bsox0407]

I'm sure anyone would lol.

 

I would prolly have got rear-ended by a semi cause i would have slammed on the brakes. lol.

[Palodios]

I really don't get why people have this perception that players somehow magically turn it on in contract years. But I'm really too lazy to express all of my opinions on this, so...

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/adrian-beltre-is-not-motivated-by-contract-years/

 

Arbitration doesn't count because it doesn't mean the difference between contract length, just arbitration dollars. And 2009 was a fluke because he was injured. So besides those scenarios, yeah, his only two contract years have been monster years.

[Will617]

Arbitration doesn't count because it doesn't mean the difference between contract length' date=' just arbitration dollars. And 2009 was a fluke because he was injured. So besides those scenarios, yeah, his only two contract years have been monster years.[/quote']

 

What? So, the only thing that players play well for is contract years? I don't understand how arbitration would not apply, given that it's still a significant amount of money on the table.

Furthermore, I'm still not sure how it's possible that players can respond with significantly above-average seasons whenever they feel like it. That would suggest that Beltre was intentionally putting his bat a few centimeters off on some swings. It's one hell of a talent to simply add 30 points to your BABIP whenever you feel like it, without significant change to your batted ball profile. And I doubt that he adds a ton more muscle in those contract years; he looks like a linebacker, year in year out. So if you had to ask me which is more likely - Beltre manipulating his balls to fall for hits more often during contract years, or his numbers in Safeco just being suppressed because it's the worst possible environment for a righty pull hitter (therefore making his Red Sox numbers not too far off what you would expect him to give in most seasons), I'd say the latter.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Arbitration doesn't count because it doesn't mean the difference between contract length' date=' just arbitration dollars. And 2009 was a fluke because he was injured. So besides those scenarios, yeah, his only two contract years have been monster years.[/quote']

 

 

Ok. I guess I can't really debate that Beltre has put up big numbers in contract years, although I strongly believe that the argument should be limited to 2004, as last year he came over to an extremely hitter friendly park for his swing, and he raked, just like he should have.

 

He got a little bit more selective, and his K% decreased by 2% and his BB% increased by 2%. His BABIP was .331 last year, so he got a few more hits which can be attributed to "luck". I find it hard to believe that a player can somehow turn it on and increase his BABIP just because he's in a contract year.

 

Another argument I hate hearing is that Beltre sucked in Seattle, and that he was a disappointment out there.

 

Even with the monster 2004 campaign (not taking his rookie year into consideration), Beltre averaged an OPS of .803 with 23 HR and 81 RBI's per year in LA.

 

When he went to Seattle, outside of his injured season, he averaged an OPS of .774 with 24 HR and 88 RBI's. 30 point drop in OPS? Thanks SafeCo! He still drove in runs and hit bombs.

 

And then you fast forward to 2010, where he was playing at Fenway. Anyone could have expected that a guy who hit 24 bombs a year at SafeCo and drove in 88 runs a year on the Mariners should be good for around 28-30 HR and 100+ RBI's playing in Boston with that line up. Now his batting average and OPS skyrocketed way beyond expectation, but he hit 4 more bombs and drove in 14 more runs than he averaged in Seattle. That's pretty consistent with what should have been expected, as far as pure power numbers and driving in runs.

 

Again, his batting average and his OPS skyrocketed last year, so I have no explanation for that, other than he had a little bit more protection and hit at an incredibly hitter friendly park for his swing.

[Dojji]

 

He got a little bit more selective, and his K% decreased by 2% and his BB% increased by 2%.

 

Looks like ordinary variation to me. Any gain there can be written down to pitchers recognizing he was hitting well and staying away from him more than they did in Seattle.

 

His BABIP was .331 last year, so he got a few more hits which can be attributed to "luck". I find it hard to believe that a player can somehow turn it on and increase his BABIP just because he's in a contract year. .

 

Normalize that BABIP and it's still a solid year. And the BABIP is a little higher because Green Monster doubles count as "balls in play" even if they hit 20 feet up on the wall.

 

It's not a question of luck. It's a question of what a player is prepared to sacrifice, when and why. Many of these guys have the talent to get it done like they do in a contract year, every year. Motivation is the issue. The contract year is a goal that forces them to focus on getting the job done, no more, no less.

[Dojji]

Hooooooooold it a second. Someone done snuck something past us.

 

From the TPJ article back on the last page:

 

The Red Sox announced two other moves, claiming catcher Max Ramirez on waivers from Texas and designating righty reliever Matt Fox for assignment.

 

If you'd asked me which was the bigger move, claiming an under 26 catcher with a decent power ceiling, or signing a 29 year old converted shortstop with a 91 mile an hour fastball and Not Much Else, lead with the catcher.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Looks like ordinary variation to me. Any gain there can be written down to pitchers recognizing he was hitting well and staying away from him more than they did in Seattle.

 

 

 

Normalize that BABIP and it's still a solid year. And the BABIP is a little higher because Green Monster doubles count as "balls in play" even if they hit 20 feet up on the wall.

 

It's not a question of luck. It's a question of what a player is prepared to sacrifice, when and why. Many of these guys have the talent to get it done like they do in a contract year, every year. Motivation is the issue. The contract year is a goal that forces them to focus on getting the job done, no more, no less.

 

Actually, place his BABIP from last year at his career average of .295, and it takes his batting average down to .287, which is extremely consistent with his career average of .275.

 

Total Hits (189) less HR (28) = 161

Total AB's (589) less HR (28) less K's (82) = 479

 

Multiply .295 (career BABIP) * Total AB's for BABIP Purposes (479) = 141 Hits, a difference of 20.

 

Take 20 hits off of his total hits column (189-20 = 169) and divide by the 589 and you get .287.

 

To put this into perspective, to go from .275 to .287 in 589 AB's, it requires only 7 more hits. That's miniscule.

 

If we are going to debate whether or not a player can affect his BABIP on command solely by motivation, then we're just going to agree to disagree. There are plenty of players who receive bonuses for achieving offensive goals, which provides them with plenty of motivation and you don't see their BABIP fluctuating significantly in bonus induced seasons.

[Dojji]

I went out of my way, if you'll take a second to read my post, to say that it had nothing to do with BABIP. Focus at the plate and in the weight room is where contract years come from. And the motivation of the contract is where the focus comes from. That's one of those things that the only thing you wind up spotting from just the numbers is the result.

[SoxSport]

James has Beltre at 24 HR, 88 RBI, .283 BA in 2011, still in Boston. Those predictions wouldn't change much in Texas. James is usually conservative in his numbers. He predicts BA to come down a bit.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I went out of my way' date=' if you'll take a second to read my post, to say that it had nothing to do with BABIP. Focus at the plate and in the weight room is where contract years come from. And the motivation of the contract is where the focus comes from. That's one of those things that the only thing you wind up spotting from just the numbers is the result.[/quote']

 

 

But if you normalize his BABIP, he put up a year consistent with his averages. I guess I'm not sure what you're trying to say.

 

His career norms at SafeCo were 24 HR/88 RBI's. He hit 28/102 at Fenway, an expected increase when going from SafeCo to Fenway, and when going from the Mariners to the Red Sox.

 

Normalize his BABIP, and he went from hitting a career .275 to .287. Again, you would expect his average to rise a bit from his career norm, as he had just spent 5 years at SafeCo and moved to Fenway.

 

I'm not sure what you're trying to say. Look, you can sacrifice all you want. Work out all you want. Run all you want. Regardless, your BABIP is going to maintain consistent with your career norms, and in a normal range. So an increase of 36 points in his BABIP which ultimately resulted in his batting average skyrocketing from .287 to .321.

 

I don't know how you can not look at his BABIP when determining whether or not he has control over his contract year.