The Official 2010 Hot Stove Thread.

[ORS]

FTR, Bill James is not high on the kid. The Bill James projections as shown on fangraphs.com are attributed to his name because he has authorized the use of his projection formula to a group that uses it, Baseball Info Solutions. Bill James is consultant for BIS, but he is still an employee of the Boston Red Sox, so his actual opinions are likely proprietary.

[Will617]

FTR' date=' Bill James is not high on the kid. The Bill James projections as shown on fangraphs.com are attributed to his name because he has authorized the use of his projection formula to a group that uses it, Baseball Info Solutions. Bill James is consultant for BIS, but he is still an employee of the Boston Red Sox, so his actual opinions are likely proprietary.[/quote']

 

IMO the Bill James stats are always a little inflated, but I guess they do give you a sense of what Kalish's potential is.

[example1]

If the Redsox get Werth it will be a glaring mistake. The guy is a NL player and will be overpaid due to Boras. Crawford knows the AL east all to well. But we have Theo Epstein as GM so he doesn't understand is a different game. See Renteria See JD Drew ect. Both guys numbers dropped in AL.

 

What numbers do you use to back up your point? Show me something from one of the many sites that do statistics or I will continue to think you're just talking out of your ass.

 

EDIT: You may think Crawford is better. I would argue there's a very good chance he's overrated because of his speed.

[a700hitter]

Daily Reminder to the FO:

 

Get Carl Crawford

 

BTW: You also need a right handed corner IF with pop and a competent cacher. You have a lot of work to do. Get moving. We're bored to tears and we only have two-third of a starting lineup to discuss.

[Dojji]

What numbers do you use to back up your point? Show me something from one of the many sites that do statistics or I will continue to think you're just talking out of your ass.

 

EDIT: You may think Crawford is better. I would argue there's a very good chance he's overrated because of his speed.

 

The thing that makes me nervous about Werth is what a late bloomer he is. He's really only had 3-4 good seasons and only 1-2 really elite ones. I'm not entirely sure that we'll get the Werth we think we're getting with the guy, either because he falls off in the new environment or because he isn't as good as we expected. and when you're spending that kind of money you need to be able to be sure.

[example1]

The thing that makes me nervous about Werth is what a late bloomer he is. He's really only had 3-4 good seasons and only 1-2 really elite ones. I'm not entirely sure that we'll get the Werth we think we're getting with the guy' date=' either because he falls off in the new environment or because he isn't as good as we expected. and when you're spending that kind of money you need to be able to be sure.[/quote']

 

I'm assuming that he's noticably cheaper than Crawford, even if his camp won't admit it now.

 

As worried as I am about the point you raise, I'm more worried about giving Crawford a deal that looks like 20x6. He is not as valuable as people here seem to suggest. An .807 OPS over the past 4 years is not worthy of near-Teixeira money.

 

If Crawford's price gets closer to that of Werth then I would be more than happy for the Sox to go after Crawford really aggressively. I just don't see them passing on the more valuable player who costs significantly less money.

[Rdsxmbnt]

I'm assuming that he's noticably cheaper than Crawford, even if his camp won't admit it now.

 

As worried as I am about the point you raise, I'm more worried about giving Crawford a deal that looks like 20x6. He is not as valuable as people here seem to suggest. An .807 OPS over the past 4 years is not worthy of near-Teixeira money.

 

If Crawford's price gets closer to that of Werth then I would be more than happy for the Sox to go after Crawford really aggressively. I just don't see them passing on the more valuable player who costs significantly less money.

 

I think it depends on which Crawford we're going to get for the life of the contract. The .850 OPS Crawford last year is absolutely a guy I'd pay 6/150 for and he'd be able to hit in the middle of the lineup. But if he's closer to .800 OPS then he's really only fit to be the leadoff guy since a lot of his speed is lost in the #3 hole. I guess it depends on how the FO views this issue and whether Ellsbury is in the long term plans still.

[a700hitter]

The stats that have been cited in this thread don't tell the whole story. There are other stats and facts to be considered.

 

Crawford has been a very consistent player for much longer than Werth. In fact, he has almost twice as many career ABs as Werth and he is 3 years younger than Werth. In fact Werth has only had 3 seasons worth discussing.

 

Until 2008, he was a part time 4th OFer type. Since 2008, he has been blending into the background on the best offensive team in the NL. They have Utley, Howard, Rollins, and Burrell (in 2008). In 2008, the all-time great, Pat Burrell had a better season. I am sure he is available at a much cheaper price than either Crawford or Werth.

 

Werth's power stats have been inflated by playing on the best NL offensive team that plays in a bandbox.

Managers do not go into a Philly series saying that they don't want to let Werth beat them. Managers in the AL know that the way to beat Tampa is to keep Crawford off the bases. That's the game plan, and it has been the game plan since Crawford has been in the league starting in 2002.

At age 28 with twice as many career plate appearances as Werth, it can be argued that Crawford is just entering his prime.

I'd much rather offer a 6 year contract to Crawford than a 4 year contract to Werth. In short, Crawford is a superstar with superstar skills. The choice isn't even close IMO. His speed and base stealing ability alone is a lethal weapon that few in the game possess. IMO if Crawford's agent doesn't get him 50% more than Werth, he is a quack.

 

This debate really does remind me of the 1977 choice between Joe Rudi and Reggie Jackson (although Jackson and Crawford are very different types of players). One went on to the Hall of Fame and the other is largely forgotten. That's how I view Crawford and Werth ending up.

[a700hitter]

I just checked the remaining FA list. If Werth and Crawford come off the board and we don't get one of them, we are looking at a s*** 2011 season. There also ain't a whole lot at first base and third base. Forget about catcher.

 

What do people think about Miguel Tejada for 3B for one year?

[Dojji]

Eh, rather just get Bill Hall back.

[a700hitter]

Eh' date=' rather just get Bill Hall back.[/quote']To play 3B full time?

[Dojji]

Not necessarily, if we have Lowrie, Scoot, Youks and Hall, we can mix and match a little if we have to. It wouldn't be a great solution, but it's better than the ghost of Miguel Tejada.

 

A Hall/Lowrie platoon is about the best chance I can see of putting something together without Beltre or Youks playing third base.

[Northern Star]

To play 3B full time?

 

No thanks.

[a700hitter]

Not necessarily' date=' if we have Lowrie, Scoot, Youks and Hall, we can mix and match a little if we have to. It wouldn't be a great solution, but it's better than the ghost of Miguel Tejada.[/quote']Francona has said that Youk doesn't like being moved back and forth across the diamond, so going into the season he is either going to be the full time first baseman or the full time third baseman. Lowrie and Hall sharing 3B doesn't seem like a great option. Hall is no IF whizz. At 3B if they put down an open garbage can, it would probably catch more balls than Hall would. If Lowrie shared the position with Tejada, at least he'd be sharing the position with a guy that knows why he has a glove on his hand.

[ORS]

The Rudi vs. Jackson choice was a little more clear cut, IMO. By '77 you were talking about .275/.320/.435 with 111 HR / 21 SB vs. .267/.358/.503 with 281 HR / 171 SB, and this is with the better numbers at a more premium position. Jackson was better, by a good margin, at all facets of the game other than BA, where they were equal.

 

This isn't the case with Werth vs. Crawford. Werth is better in some areas, Crawford is better in others. The decision should come down to factors such as: who's skill set is likely to hold up over the duration of the contract, who's skill set is likely to best take advantage of the home park (yes Werth played in a bandbox, but Fenway is an excellent park for RHH power hitters - see the resurrection of Mike Lowell and Adrian Beltre).

 

I too think there should be some concern about Werth's lack of time being a productive player. I also feel there should be concern about paying Crawford big money over big time when his effectiveness is largely dependent upon the first skill to usually fade, speed. If Crawford's power development can continue, it would mitigate some of that concern.

[WhiskeyBreath]

I just checked the remaining FA list. If Werth and Crawford come off the board and we don't get one of them, we are looking at a s*** 2011 season. There also ain't a whole lot at first base and third base. Forget about catcher.

 

What do people think about Miguel Tejada for 3B for one year?

 

No thanks on Tejada. There are just too many 1B options on the market for them to have to settle for Tejada at 3B. Sliding Youk over and signing a 1B is their best bet.

 

It's going to be a s*** 2011 season if they don't upgrade their pen too.

[ORS]

I just checked the remaining FA list. If Werth and Crawford come off the board and we don't get one of them' date=' we are looking at a s*** 2011 season.[/b'] There also ain't a whole lot at first base and third base. Forget about catcher.

 

What do people think about Miguel Tejada for 3B for one year?

This is a bit overboard. They could sign neither and still have a successful year, for the following reasons:

 

Jacoby Ellsbury returns as a productive player

Mike Cameron returns from injury and produces like he did in '08

Ryan Kalish continues his progression, and performs at the MLB level

Josh Beckett is healthy and pitches like he did from '07-'09

John Lackey rebounds

David Ortiz experiences no 2-month rough start

Jed Lowrie continues his progression, and takes the starting job from Scutaro

 

Counting on just some of those things happening, and only some of them need to happen to make them competitive, is no more risky than bringing an NL late bloomer into the AL East and expecting a smooth transition, or signing a speed guy into his middle 30's.

 

They can still get better in other areas (mainly another corner IF and BP help) without signing those guys and field a good team.

[ORS]

No thanks on Tejada. There are just too many 1B options on the market for them to have to settle for Tejada at 3B. Sliding Youk over and signing a 1B is their best bet.

 

It's going to be a s*** 2011 season if they don't upgrade their pen too.

I think this is what's going to happen. It just makes sense on too many levels, and Youk's value is maximized at 3B.

[Palodios]

I'd be perfectly fine starting Adam Dunn, Maggy Ordonez, Manny Ramirez, Vladimir Guerrero or Matsui in LF. f*** defense.

[a700hitter]

I just checked the remaining FA list. If Werth and Crawford come off the board and we don't get one of them, we are looking at a s*** 2011 season. There also ain't a whole lot at first base and third base. Forget about catcher.

 

What do people think about Miguel Tejada for 3B for one year?

FYI. My definition of s*** season = no playoffs.

 

No Werth, no Crawford, no Beltre = no playoffs. We might (I stress might) surpass Tampa because they will lose too many players, but the Yankees will blow us away, especially if they get Lee. If the Angels get Crawford, they will be resurrected. The only question will be how long we stay in the Wild Card hunt.

[ORS]

FYI. My definition of s*** season = no playoffs.

 

No Werth, no Crawford, no Beltre = no playoffs. We might (I stress might) surpass Tampa because they will lose too many players, but the Yankees will blow us away, especially if they get Lee. If the Angels get Crawford, they will be resurrected. The only question will be how long we stay in the Wild Card hunt.

Awful strong prediction. Those guys are good, but their production, or close to it, isn't irreplaceable. And, you can get better in more than one facet of the game.

[a700hitter]

No thanks on Tejada. There are just too many 1B options on the market for them to have to settle for Tejada at 3B. Sliding Youk over and signing a 1B is their best bet.

 

It's going to be a s*** 2011 season if they don't upgrade their pen too.

Jose Reyes was discussed a bit yesterday. Getting him would be huge. We could slide Scutaro to 3B. I'm not big on the first base options. I just don't see Konerko leaving Chicago, and I don't like Lee or Pena. I like Dunn, but not for a long term deal, and it would take a long term deal to get him. What about Overbay? He murders us.

[Palodios]

Losing Martinez-- 4.1 WAR

Losing Beltre 7.1 WAR

 

They can't just hope to stay healthy and assume they'll play well without them, those are tough guys to replace in the lineup.

[a700hitter]

Awful strong prediction. Those guys are good' date=' but their production, or close to it, isn't irreplaceable. And, you can get better in more than one facet of the game.[/quote']I've never been reluctant to state a strong opinion. Sometimes I'm wrong. Of course, they are not the only three guys that could help improve the team and put them over the top. They are the only FA guys that I see that would make a difference.

If the FO doesn't go for them, they'll have to do something bold in the trade market whether that be Upton, Adrian Gonzalez, Reyes or someone else. If they don't make a bold trade move and those other guys come off the FA board, it ain't going to be a pretty 2011. Theo would have to build one hell of a bull pen, and I don't have a great deal of confidence in that.

[a700hitter]

Losing Martinez-- 4.1 WAR

Losing Beltre 7.1 WAR

 

They can't just hope to stay healthy and assume they'll play well without them, those are tough guys to replace in the lineup.

That has been my concern since the season ended-- that FO would settle into the belief that the 2010 team was good enough if it didn't have injuries. It might have been, but there were other issues that needed addressing, and certainly if you subtract Beltre and VMart without making some big moves, the team is not going to be good enough. I think they are looking to make some big moves, but sometimes you need to close the deal. If they don't, someone else will. The FA talent pool is limited this year, so the prices will be up. They need to act.

[Keeper]

The thing that makes me nervous about Werth is what a late bloomer he is. He's really only had 3-4 good seasons and only 1-2 really elite ones.

 

Kevin Youkilis says hi.

 

Werth's power stats have been inflated by playing on the best NL offensive team that plays in a bandbox.

 

Have you ever actually seen him hit? Dude has light-tower power to all fields.

[a700hitter]

Kevin Youkilis says hi.

 

 

 

Have you ever actually seen him hit? Dude has light-tower power and power to all fields.

Yes, in fact, I have been to Citizens Field in Philly. Have you?

[ORS]

Losing Martinez-- 4.1 WAR

Losing Beltre 7.1 WAR

 

They can't just hope to stay healthy and assume they'll play well without them, those are tough guys to replace in the lineup.

No doubt. But consider this...

 

Youkilis moves to 3B, where his offensive contribution by WAR is magnified. He's a safe bet to reproduce, or even better, 7.1 WAR.

 

The new 1B need only replace the 4.2 produced by Youkilis last year, which is no small feat, but getting close with a Derrek Lee or Lance Berkman on a short contract isn't out of this world.

 

The catcher position will be a little more daunting, but also consider the production from the outfield as a unit last year (Drew 2.6, Hall 1.0, McDonald 0.8, Kalish 0.6, Reddick 0.2, Ellsbury -0.2, Cameron -0.3) . It's no large assumption to suggest they will get better aggregate production from that unit even without a big FA acquistion. Just going on the year prior to last year you have this (Drew 4.8, Cameron 4.4, 2.7) and you have the development of Kalish as the 4th OF. While they may not replicate what they got from their catcher, they should easily get if from the OF.

 

Now, just replacing last year's production clearly isn't enough, they did miss the playoffs afterall. But they've also got the continued development of Jed Lowrie, hopefully a full season of Dustin Pedroia, and a reasonable expectation that the starting rotation should be better (overall).

 

Fix the BP, and you've got a contender.

[Keeper]

Yes' date=' in fact, I have been to Citizens Field in Philly. Have you?[/quote']

 

Good for you. Wasn't the question, smartass.

 

Jayson Werth on HitTracker:

 

2010

[a700hitter]

Good for you. Wasn't the question, smartass.

 

Jayson Werth on HitTracker:

 

2010

 

2009

 

2008

Here was your question:

 

Have you ever actually seen him hit? Dude has light-tower power to all fields.

It was a bit snarky ...no? The Sox have played Philly and I watch every Sox game, so I have seen him play. I've watched other Philly games too. I answered your question and you reply with name-calling?