The Official 2010 Hot Stove Thread.

[example1]

No, I think the question is still whether KC would ever do that. You're right about the chances being "not great, but fair". There's the possibility that KC is just a natural fit for the guy and he wants to sign long-term. At the same time, he really is much more valuable in the market. He could easily command $15m per year now, and is entering what should be his prime years already earning $13.5m per. Even the nicest, most self-less person would have a very hard time turning down an extra six million dollars per year to do the same job either way.

 

Will617 is right though; the enormous cost in prospects and salary for a single young player is the very reason the Red Sox invest so much in their farm system. With Ranaudo and Kelly likely available after 2012, as well as Doubront and home-grown aces Buchholz and Lester, I think the FO believes they have a better way of doing things.

 

I was a big fan of their supposed attempt to land Felix Hernandez, and would not be disappointed with most scenarios that would land the Sox Zack Greinke. I wouldn't pursue him as hard as Felix though, he's not as good. For starters, I probably wouldn't be willing to move Lowrie, Kalish or Iglesias.

Iglesias should take over in 2012 when Scutaro's contract expires. Lowrie will be at least a good MLB utility infielder and his bat is probably good enough to stick at 3B if he develops according to his minor league numbers. And Kalish is this team's CF or RF of the future. If they add Werth or Crawford then the OF of Crawford/Werth, Ellsbury, Kalish would be a serious threat on both sides of the ball. Or they could move Ellsbury and put Kalish in CF.

 

They have these good players for virtually no cost. They have quite a bit of value.

[ORS]

Ranaudo available after 2012? That's a bit optimistic, IMO. Kelly I could see, as that gives him 2 more years on top of the 2 already under his belt. Ranaudo is probably starting in low-A in 2011. Your expectation is that he masters low-A / high-A in year one and AA/ AAA in year two. For that to happen, there are no bumps in the road, and history suggests, for most prospects, there's a bump or two.

[BSN07]

I wouldn't necessarily want them to move Lowrie. But if they had to I wouldn't be outraged. The other two I would really like them to try and hold on to.

 

As far as pitcher going the other way. The Sox are in a different position the most other ball clubs. With Lester, Buchholz, Beckett, and Lackey all committed to for the next 3-4 years financially(Buchholz isn't inked long term, but he isn't going anywhere either) The Sox rotation if pretty much full at this point. That leaves pitchers in the system who would be ready between now and then the ends of those deals with pretty much nowhere to go. And yes obviously there are always injuries and non of those guys can be guaranteed to pitch every season. But we can't predict injuries. All I know is those guys are locked into the rotation. So with that in mind I think Bowden and Doubront are two guys to go. Those two coupled with Kelly I believe could be the pitching part of the package. And yes it looks like a lot now. But given the Sox FO's track record. I'm willing to wager that in 4 years time they will have a couple guys in the system big league ready. There will be other talent to replace the talent lost in order to haul in Grienke. That is one thing I am sure of with this FO.

 

If they want to keep Kalish then well Reddick becomes an automatic piece.

 

So altogether I have,

 

Kelly+Doubront+Bowden+Reddick+1(this spot is reserved for possibly a C or IF prospect)

 

Jacko can bitch and gripe all he wants, but that is a solid deal that KC will consider. Especially if the Sox are taking on all of his remaining 27M(something close to that off the top of my head) on his contract.

[BSN07]

Ranaudo available after 2012? That's a bit optimistic' date=' IMO. Kelly I could see, as that gives him 2 more years on top of the 2 already under his belt. Ranaudo is probably starting in low-A in 2011. Your expectation is that he masters low-A / high-A in year one and AA/ AAA in year two. For that to happen, there are no bumps in the road, and history suggests, for most prospects, there's a bump or two.[/quote']

 

I expect Ranaudo in the next waive of groomed pitching prospects. Around the time Beckett and Lackey's deals run out IMO.

[Will617]

So altogether I have,

 

Kelly+Doubront+Bowden+Reddick+1(this spot is reserved for possibly a C or IF prospect)

 

Jacko can bitch and gripe all he wants, but that is a solid deal that KC will consider. Especially if the Sox are taking on all of his remaining 27M(something close to that off the top of my head) on his contract.

 

If the Royals aren't eating any of his contract, then I don't think it would cost the Sox 5 prospects. But I would guess that KC would be willing to eat a substantial amount of money to get better prospects, given that 1. It's how a lot of teams have been doing it recently, and 2. They're not going to be spending that money on much else.

[bsox0407]

According to ESPN

Yanks and Retardi Agree on a deal.

http://sports.espn.go.com/new-york/mlb/news/story?id=5737221&campaign=rss&source=twitter&ex_cid=Twitter_espn_5737221

[jacksonianmarch]

Peter Gammons of NESN and MLB.com told Boston-based WEEI.com on Thursday that the Red Sox are likely to go hard after Carl Crawford this winter.

 

"There is no doubt in my mind that they are going to go really hard after Carl Crawford," said Gammons. "That will be a matchup with the Angels, and you know there are some puffs of smoke coming out of New York that suggest the Yankees might go after him, even though their primary need is pitching." Crawford, 29, batted .307/.356/.495 in 2010 with 19 homers, 90 RBI and 47 stolen bases. He will draw major bids from a variety of teams.

[example1]

Ranaudo available after 2012? That's a bit optimistic' date=' IMO. Kelly I could see, as that gives him 2 more years on top of the 2 already under his belt. Ranaudo is probably starting in low-A in 2011. Your expectation is that he masters low-A / high-A in year one and AA/ AAA in year two. For that to happen, there are no bumps in the road, and history suggests, for most prospects, there's a bump or two.[/quote']

 

I think it is probably optimistic about both of them to be honest, but he's the same age as Kelly so I tend to lump their development together--however inappropriate that may be given the context.

 

I do see some precedent for superior college pitchers moving quickly through the Sox system, looking at Hansen and Papelbon. I don't expect them to move him through that quickly (certainly not as fast as Hansen), but if they have a dominant 6-7 pitcher mowing people down as he progresses through the system, I think they would find a place for him in their roster proections after 2012.

[jacksonianmarch]

Give Ranaudo some time. He hasnt thrown a pitch in anger as a pro yet. Who knows how long it will take him to get his s*** together

[NateGrey]

I should have clarified. The sox dont have one prospect that would headline a deal for a top notch ace like other teams do. So' date=' a deal for Greinke would gut the sox of their top prospects, something Theo has shown an unwillingness to do[/quote']

 

iglesias? kelly? rizzo? btw, who made you a scout?

 

 

 

[BSN07]

Give Ranaudo some time. He hasnt thrown a pitch in anger as a pro yet. Who knows how long it will take him to get his s*** together

 

I think Ranaudo and Kelly are both on the Lester/Buchholz development time frame. I don't see either rushed unless by 2012 it is an absolute need. It's not just pitch development. It's arm development as well. These guys will need to be taught how to handle the workload there are going to have to sustain in Boston. The documented history of pitchers making too large of jumps in IP and injury is too large to ignore.

 

I see Ranaudo/ Kelly making a mid to late season debut in 2013 and be possibly be part of the Sox rotation in 2014. But that's just my point of view.

[Dojji]

You load up on as many talented players as you can in order to avoid depending on any one of them. I don't count on any prospect at all as a serious big leaguer until they start showing it in AA. That's the flipside of my taking underrated prospects a little more seriously than most -- I also take highly rated prospects a bit less seriously until they start getting the job done in a way that suggests they're close.

[jacksonianmarch]

iglesias? kelly? rizzo? btw, who made you a scout?

 

 

 

 

Iglesias is a glove first SS without much power projection. To the Royals, who now have Colon, dealing away their ace for a glove first SS is not the best idea

 

Kelly took a step back this yr when he hit a wall at AA. My thought is that he rebounds at AA in 2011, but having a rough season definitely drops the prospect stock a bit, and his yr was very rough for him.

 

Rizzo is a prospect who has shown a lot of power for a young man, but is waiting for the rest of his offensive game to develop in terms of contact and avg. He does draw a fair share of walks, but 132K's in a MiLB season is a ton. My thought on him is that he puts it together next yr and jumps to the forefront of the sox rankings in a big way

 

Regardless, there arent any guys who headline a package right now. You had one in Buchholz, but now he is your #2 and you arent dealing him. That is what happens with top notch prospects. They graduate to the bigs and become irreplaceable. The sox have a lot of talent, but they dont have that one big prospect to headline a deal like the Yanks have with Montero. Therefore, any deal the sox try to make will involve them dealing away 2-3 of their top 5 organizational players and another 1-2 upper level prospects. This is something Theo has shown an unwillingness to do. And by no means am I pissing on the sox system here. They just graduated a lot of their prospects AND now have an upper level prospect gap that should fill by 2012. I love what they did in the draft in '09 and '10, and think that will start filling in at AA and AAA in 2 yrs.

[BSN07]

David Ortiz says he is still hoping to sign a multi-year deal with the Red Sox and insists that he remains an elite hitter despite the perception that he’s in decline. Big Papi told Rob Bradford of WEEI.com that he won’t be pleased if the Red Sox exercise his $12.5MM option for 2011 instead of offering more security.

 

"I'm not comfortable coming back just for one year because it's going to be the same roller-coaster that I had this year," he said.

 

This isn't going to end well IMO. I don't see the Sox guaranteeing him 2+ years. I was hoping he would have just been happy if they picked up the option. I was thinking the Sox might go to a Vlady type deal, one year guaranteed with an option year. But it doesn't sound like he's going to be happy with anything less then 2 years guaranteed. He may very well be talking himself out of Boston.

 

What other teams would have interest in him? Especially at 2 years guaranteed. I think he's going to be slightly surprised at how small his market is going to be. I would have been begging for the option to get picked up if I was him.

[BSN07]

Iglesias is a glove first SS without much power projection.

 

I think Power at the SS position is over rated in today's game. Outside of Hanley and Tulo, who are more then 20-25 HR threats?

 

IMO the ideal SS is athletic with good contact skills and gap power, While being an excellent defender.

[jacksonianmarch]

It's not a knock, BSN. It is who he is. And the Royals have a better SS prospect with a whole lot more offensive upside.

[Meh]

The Sox could get a top guy, just not Grienke, unless they want to add Buchholz in. They just don't match up well.

[BSN07]

The Sox could get a top guy' date=' just not Grienke, unless they want to add Buchholz in. They just don't match up well.[/quote']

 

What is the one major knock on the Sox system? It's that it's top talent is 2+ years away. The exact same time frame talent that KC s looking for. Or is it you just believe the Sox have no talent at all in their system and that's why they don't match up?

[Meh]

What is the one major knock on the Sox system? It's that it's top talent is 2+ years away. The exact same time frame talent that KC s looking for. Or is it you just believe the Sox have no talent at all in their system and that's why they don't match up?

 

I'm saying they're going to want top tier pitchers or a top tier CF prospect. If RWML didn't get cancer and had a steller year then yeah you could of traded for Grienke, but they don't need Rizzo, they don't need Anderson, they really don't have a pressing need to add Ingelsis, Kelly isn't a top tier SP, more like a No. 3 and you don't trade an Ace for a guy with a middle of the rotation potential...

 

anyways you have Lester, Buchholz, Beckett, Dice-K, Lackey, Wakefield in your rotation... why do you need to add Grienke?

[Keeper]

The Sox could get a top guy' date=' just not Grienke, unless they want to add Buchholz in. They just don't match up well.[/quote']

 

Not that I want Greinke, but that is just not accurate. Buchholz can no longer be looked at as a trading chip, and while I agree that Iglesias wouldn't fit with the Royals (since they have Colon), there are other prospects who could get the job done: Kalish, Rizzo, Lars, Lavarnway, Ranaudo, Doubront, Kelly, Vitek, etc.

[Meh]

Not that I want Greinke' date=' but that is just not accurate. Buchholz can no longer be looked at as a trading chip, and while I agree that Iglesias wouldn't fit with the Royals (since they have Colon), there are other prospects who could get the job done: Kalish, Rizzo, Lars, Lavarnway, Ranaudo, Doubront, Kelly, Vitek, etc.[/quote']

 

you can't trade vitek & ranaudo.... Lavarnway?! They have perhaps the best or second best catcher in the minor leagues in Myers... Rizzo and Anderson? At 1B no since they have the best 1B prospect in baseball and his name is Hosmer. 3B is taken by the best 3B prospect in baseball in Moustakas. I guess you could see if they would want Anderson/Rizzo, etc as a LF or RF, but that would kind of crap out some of their value and you'd be giving away pieces as discount prices and would have to offer up even more.

[example1]

It must be a great time to be a Royals fan, they have Hall of Famers in waiting at every position and couldn't use Casey Kelly, Jose Iglesias, Stolmy Pimentel or Anthony Rizzo in their system.

 

I don't feel it should have to be repeated, but Kelly was playing well above his age level and scouts really like his stuff. He's extremely athletic, has great mechanics and projects to add 2-3 mph to his FB as most pitchers do with a frame like his. One need not look far for examples of pitchers who go on to be very good who have small hickups in their development at some point. In just recent memory, Jon Lester put up a 4.28 ERA/1.32 WHIP in his age 20 season, while at age 22 Daniel Bard put up a 7.08 ERA and 2+ WHIP at A/A+.

[Dipre]

So apparently not only is Kellys ceiling now reduced to that of a number 3 (According to Meh the advanced scout, anyway) and the Royals, whose OF system is nothing to write home about, couldn?t use Kalish, Reddick, or both, and they also couldnt move Colon to 2B (where he could end up anyway) and create an ultra-exciting DP combination with Iglesias.

 

You know, i wonder if one day, ill be able to enjoy the pleasure of an accurate assesment from some of the non-Y228 fans here. That expectation will probably outlive this site by a long time.

[Dojji]

you can't trade vitek & ranaudo.... Lavarnway?! They have perhaps the best or second best catcher in the minor leagues in Myers... Rizzo and Anderson? At 1B no since they have the best 1B prospect in baseball and his name is Hosmer. 3B is taken by the best 3B prospect in baseball in Moustakas. I guess you could see if they would want Anderson/Rizzo' date=' etc as a LF or RF, but that would kind of crap out some of their value and you'd be giving away pieces as discount prices and would have to offer up even more.[/quote']

 

DOn't be any more of a chump than you have to be. You count on NO ONE to produce at the big league level until they actually do. No one. If investing in Lavarnway means he's crowded behind Will Myers, then from the Royals' perspective that's a good problem to have because catching is a position with a significant bust rate and you then get two shots at finding an offensive guy who can actually play the position.

 

If these guys go into each position of their minor league system thinking "Guy X or bust" then the answer for at least 2-3 of them and probably more than that is gonna be "bust." I would hope the Royals would be smart enough to pile up some redundancy in the minors as bust insurance if the opportunity came along (IE not stupid enough not to do so).

 

You'd have thought they might have learned that lesson with their last rebuild when Gordon turned into a huge salvage project and Butler, their next hitting superstar, seems to be topping out as a very nice above average but unspectacular first baseman. That's what more prospects than not do, the Longorias that come into the league already able to produce at an elite level are an extreme minority, so assuming you'll get one at every position you have a stud prospect at is ludicrous. For every Longoria there's two Alex Gordons who can't hack it and at least one Ben Zobrist that's inconsistent, takes forever to get it or is only okay.

 

So if you trade a guy who isn't going to be there when things get good anyway, for more potential studs to pile up some depth and give you a better fighting chance of finding 8 players to stick in your positions without having to splurge in FA, you do it as long as the price is reasonable.

[Palodios]

I think the point has been a bit exaggerated, but there is definitely truth in the fact that when trading an ace quality pitchers, the Royals will want a better pool of prospects because of the fact that their best prospects right now aren't the best fit for the royals system. I'm still firm under the belief that Theo is not selling the farm. Besides Bard, there has not been a single prospect who has made a significant impact on this team over the last two seasons, simply because there has been a gap in the development of players, and in 2010 we sort of saw what might be coming up through this organization soon, and if they're that desperate for an ace they should get Lee-- because even outbidding the Yankees would potentially cost less than the money they'd have to pay to sign free agents to replace a pile of top prospects.

[NateGrey]

Iglesias is a glove first SS without much power projection. To the Royals' date=' who now have Colon, dealing away their ace for a glove first SS is not the best idea[/quote']

 

iglesias was a defense first ss when he arrived from cuba, now he's arguably the best defensive ss in the minors who's projected to be a .300 hitter. those don't grow on trees.

 

btw, the royals love iglesias.

 

 

 

Kelly took a step back this yr when he hit a wall at AA. My thought is that he rebounds at AA in 2011, but having a rough season definitely drops the prospect stock a bit, and his yr was very rough for him.

 

 

it definitely drops a prospects stock? according to who? you? remember when we traded hanley? he only hit .270 that year to go along with 6 hr's and he got us josh beckett. you're no scout, all you do is look up stats online. there's more to a prospect than stats.

 

 

 

Rizzo is a prospect who has shown a lot of power for a young man, but is waiting for the rest of his offensive game to develop in terms of contact and avg. He does draw a fair share of walks, but 132K's in a MiLB season is a ton. My thought on him is that he puts it together next yr and jumps to the forefront of the sox rankings in a big way

 

 

case in point. you claim rizzo needs to hit for avg because you looked up his 2010 stats. should have dug a little deeper to find out that rizzo hit .297 in '09' and .373 in '08'. he wasn't known for being a power hitter when he got drafted, he was known for being a good defensive 1b with a good eye.

 

"Scouting Report: Tough-as-nails first baseman with an excellent build. Solid overall approach at the plate, good eye, quick bat speed, impressive timing. Gap power to all fields. "

 

 

btw, .263, 815ops, 20hr, 88rbi from a 20 yr old in aa makes him one of the better 1b prospects in baseball.

[Meh]

So apparently not only is Kellys ceiling now reduced to that of a number 3 (According to Meh the advanced scout, anyway) and the Royals, whose OF system is nothing to write home about, couldn?t use Kalish, Reddick, or both, and they also couldnt move Colon to 2B (where he could end up anyway) and create an ultra-exciting DP combination with Iglesias.

 

You know, i wonder if one day, ill be able to enjoy the pleasure of an accurate assesment from some of the non-Y228 fans here. That expectation will probably outlive this site by a long time.

 

Reddick isn't anything to write home about either... so he's moot here. Yeah they could move Colon, but why would they? haha, SS is a premier positon, might as well give him a chance to stay there. I'm not saying they are HOFers, but would you trade Papelbon for a 2B prospect and a 1B prospect? Probably not since you have Pedo at 2B and then have a gaggle of guys waiting at 1B if Youkie moves.

 

could you deal for him? yes... im not saying you couldn't if it was just the Red sox and Royals but other teams are going to get in the mix and almost with certainty they will match up better and probably have better stuff to trade.

[Palodios]

Would you trade Papelbon for a 2B prospect and a 1B prospect?

 

I would trade Papelbon for the grandmothers of those respective prospects at this point. Greinke is in a very different league than Papelbon right now.

[BSN07]

Is Meh cloned from Gom? Every time I read a post of his I expect to look over and see Gom's name

 

. Or is this common knowledge and I missed something awhile back?

[BSN07]

I'm not saying they are HOFers' date=' but would you trade Papelbon for a 2B prospect and a 1B prospect? [/quote']

 

Sure why not? Talent is talent. Who cares if it's at positions the Sox may have filled. It's not an automatic the Sox would want ML ready talent back for him anyways. Could be younger prospects they intend n using as pieces to a deal later on.