Your Red Sox top prospect lists

[a700hitter]

I hope you have a bang-up time down in Fort Myers this March 700. You deserve some real highlight times in Florida considering what you personally went through last Spring. I have always enjoyed doping the prospects since I did some unofficial scouting for friends of mine who happened to be scouts, and many of the players I coached went professional. Sometimes talent just jumps out at you but you have to also try and see the intangibles that separate the ones who can make it from those who can't for other reasons than just talent.

 

I saw Pedroia on TV in a ST game against the Dodgers that was televised to my home here in California and I said right there, shrimp or no shrimp this guy was going to make it. I said the same thing about Ellsbury watching him in the CWS a few years back. Of course, it is a hit and miss thing as any full time scout can tell you. I was absolutely convinced that Jed Lowrie was headed for big things; in fact, I put him right along side with Pedey and Ells. Good for me I wasn't scouting for a team or I might have lost my job. Right now I would bet dollars to donuts that Ryan Lavarnway will be a solid RH hitting power hitter for us if he ever get the chance to make the lineup, and if Ryan Kalish is fully recovered from his neck injuries I am very high on him. I am NOT high at all of Josh Reddick. He has holes in his swing and is undisciplined at the plate. That is hard to overcome.

 

I haven't seen too much of Middlebrooks but that answer will come this year at Pawtucket. I just hope some of our young pitchers like Renaudo and others make some real progress the next couple of years because we sure as hell could use a couple of young guns for our pitching staff within the forseeable future.

I saw Lowrie in the first year he was invited to Spring Training, and his swing impressed me from the very beginning. I still think he would be a very good offensive middle infielder, but he just can't stay on the field. He's never going to set any iron man records.

[example1]

I saw Lowrie in the first year he was invited to Spring Training' date=' and his swing impressed me from the very beginning. I still think he would be a very good offensive middle infielder, but he just can't stay on the field. He's never going to set any iron man records.[/quote']

 

I think Lowrie is a solid player. His biggest issue was staying on the field. He played in the same PAC-10 that Ellsbury and Pedroia did (though Pedroia was slightly earlier) and had big success. A switch-hitting SS with some pop? Sign me up. Like you and SBF, I had high hopes for his ability to stick around. Of course, I don't mind getting a young setup man/closer under team control either. I'm happy with the Melancon trade.

 

SBF, I liked Ellsbury when he played at Oregon State too. It's hard to not be really impressed by his athleticism. I remember thinking that Buchholz was special and that Papelbon had a little something extra on his fastball, even if the velocity wasn't better than other pitchers.

 

On another note, here's a top 15 player ranking from Fangraphs I stumbled upon today. It's pretty reasonable, I think:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/top-15-prospects-boston-red-sox/

 

Definitely emphasizes some of the younger talent and emphasizes the talent that you can "dream on" (my quote) over the higher level but lower ceiling talent like Wilson, Doubront, etc.,

[Soxfan1]

If Xander Bogaerts is so up and coming, doesn't that make Middlebrooks (or Iglesias) a lot more expendable than people make him out to be? After all, it wasn't long ago Lars Anderson was "certainly" our future first basemen.

[example1]

If Xander Bogaerts is so up and coming' date=' doesn't that make Middlebrooks (or Iglesias) a lot more expendable than people make him out to be? After all, it wasn't long ago Lars Anderson was "certainly" our future first basemen.[/quote']

 

Xander is only 18 years old. Youkilis is gone after next year. Even if he is ready by the time he is 21, it will be 2-3 seasons before he's ready for a starting 3B gig. Between now and then they need a player at 3B.

 

In theory, if Middlebrooks is a keeper then Xander becomes expendable if he can't stay at 3B... or they just get a cycle of 3-year 3B who are dealt heading into arbitration to make way for the next generation.

 

3B is a good position to have organizational depth in.

[jacksonianmarch]

Bogaerts needs to continue developing and stay healthy and he'll still be 3 yrs off. Youk can be a FA after this yr, although I think the option gets picked up. Middlebrooks is the guy who is most likely to get that spot if Youks is dealt or leaves

[iortiz]

RED SOX TOP 10 PROSPECTS

 

A look at how Boston's Top 10 Prospects list looked at the beginning and end of the 2011 season:

 

No. Preseason ////Postseason

 

1. Jose Iglesias, SS ////Middlebrooks

2. Anthony Ranaudo, RHP ////Bryce Brentz, OF

3. Felix Doubront, LHP ////Ranaudo

4. Stolmy Pimentel, RHP ////Doubront

5. Lars Anderson, 1B ////Iglesias

6. Drake Britton, LHP ////Anderson

7. Oscar Tejeda, 2B ////Britton

8. Kolbrin Vitek, 2B ////Pimentel

9. Josh Reddick, OF ////Tejada

10. Will Middlebrooks, 3B ////Vitek

Players in bold were removed from the list after reaching the rookie eligibility threshold.

[example1]

 

Where's that list from? As in, who the hell had Lars Anderson as the 5th best prospect in the system?

[SoxFanForsyth]

Where's that list from? As in' date=' who the hell had Lars Anderson as the 5th best prospect in the system?[/quote']

 

Seriously! Lars is #6 but Bogaerts and Jacobs were both left off?!? Had to have been from like Bleacher Report.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

http://boston.redsox.mlb.com/news/print.jsp?ymd=20111028&content_id=25822934&vkey=news_bos&c_id=bos

 

His name is Johnathan Mayo. Repoter for MLB.com.

[a700hitter]

4. Doubront

5. Iglesias

6. Anderson

7. Britton

 

This is horrible. Doubront is almost to the point where he will fall out of prospect status. Iglesias still can't hit the side of a barn with a paddle. Anderson? Are you kidding? Britton? Didn't he have a Lackey type season in A ball. That doesn't bode well at all. Our system is weak. If we could load all 4 of these guys into a trade package fo a decent player, we should be grateful.

[ORS]

4. Doubront

5. Iglesias

6. Anderson

7. Britton

 

This is horrible. Doubront is almost to the point where he will fall out of prospect status. Iglesias still can't hit the side of a barn with a paddle. Anderson? Are you kidding? Britton? Didn't he have a Lackey type season in A ball. That doesn't bode well at all. Our system is weak. If we could load all 4 of these guys into a trade package fo a decent player, we should be grateful.

That depends. If this is a ranking that most would agree with, then yes, having those 4 players at spots #4-7 is not good. However, I think most have 3 of those guys well into the mid-teens with Anderson not even in the top-20. This is a bad list to draw a conclusion from.

[iortiz]

http://boston.redsox.mlb.com/news/print.jsp?ymd=20111028&content_id=25822934&vkey=news_bos&c_id=bos

 

His name is Johnathan Mayo. Repoter for MLB.com.

 

Thanks Mike. That's the list.

[a700hitter]

That depends. If this is a ranking that most would agree with' date=' then yes, having those 4 players at spots #4-7 is not good. However, I think most have 3 of those guys well into the mid-teens with Anderson not even in the top-20. This is a bad list to draw a conclusion from.[/quote']But I have not seen anything that would suggest organizational strength at the higher levels in the farm. The big team cannot dip into the minors during 2012 to provide depth for injuries or under-performance.

[Palodios]

Where's that list from? As in' date=' who the hell had Lars Anderson as the 5th best prospect in the system?[/quote']

 

If I produced results like this, I would be fired from my job immediately.

[seabeachfred]

I think Lowrie is a solid player. His biggest issue was staying on the field. He played in the same PAC-10 that Ellsbury and Pedroia did (though Pedroia was slightly earlier) and had big success. A switch-hitting SS with some pop? Sign me up. Like you and SBF, I had high hopes for his ability to stick around. Of course, I don't mind getting a young setup man/closer under team control either. I'm happy with the Melancon trade.

 

SBF, I liked Ellsbury when he played at Oregon State too. It's hard to not be really impressed by his athleticism. I remember thinking that Buchholz was special and that Papelbon had a little something extra on his fastball, even if the velocity wasn't better than other pitchers.

 

On another note, here's a top 15 player ranking from Fangraphs I stumbled upon today. It's pretty reasonable, I think:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/top-15-prospects-boston-red-sox/

 

Definitely emphasizes some of the younger talent and emphasizes the talent that you can "dream on" (my quote) over the higher level but lower ceiling talent like Wilson, Doubront, etc.,

 

EX1--It's a lot of fun trying to pinpoint which prospects are going to make it and which ones won't. Sometimes it's something large like a hole in a person's swing or inability to hit a certain pitch. Actually it can be most anything and it can be a hit or miss proposition. Back in the day I posted on Dirt Dogs you wouldn't believe the number of people on there who kept saying to go after Ronnie Belliard because Pedroia just wouldn't cut it in the Bigs. Fortunately I had some comrade support to keep battling those doomsayers and we all know what happened to Pedroia after that slow start in 2007. Maybe some people give size an overrated check on their boards. As for Ells, man I knew him to be the real thing. His talent just jumped out at me. I kept saying 300 hitter and 60 stolen bases in the bag. His power numbers? Fooled the hell out of me. Still, I'm disappointed I was wrong on Lowrie. I could have sworn he would turn out to be a helluva player.

[seabeachfred]

If I produced results like this' date=' I would be fired from my job immediately.[/quote']

 

Hey Palodios, I looked at that list and just laughed my rear end off. I almost mistook it for an April Fool's joke. The guy who came out with that lost, with all due respect, doesn't know s*** from shinola.

[example1]

4. Doubront

5. Iglesias

6. Anderson

7. Britton

 

This is horrible. Doubront is almost to the point where he will fall out of prospect status. Iglesias still can't hit the side of a barn with a paddle. Anderson? Are you kidding? Britton? Didn't he have a Lackey type season in A ball. That doesn't bode well at all. Our system is weak. If we could load all 4 of these guys into a trade package fo a decent player, we should be grateful.

 

Did you read the fangraphs list I linked earlier? It was a much better (more accurate) ranking. You should check it out. It looks pretty different.

[jacksonianmarch]

That depends. If this is a ranking that most would agree with' date=' then yes, having those 4 players at spots #4-7 is not good. However, I think most have 3 of those guys well into the mid-teens with Anderson not even in the top-20. This is a bad list to draw a conclusion from.[/quote']

 

I agree with this completely. I loved the sox drafts from 2009 to 2010 and thought last yr's was solid as well. The retread AAAA guys should be replaced with guys who are just starting to make their push through the low minors. The sox system will be restocked in 2 yrs.

[a700hitter]

Did you read the fangraphs list I linked earlier? It was a much better (more accurate) ranking. You should check it out. It looks pretty different.

It is a very different list-- a very young inexperienced list. Except for Middlebrooks and Lavarnway, none of the top 10 have played or are expected to play above A ball in 2012. A farm system should provide a source of depth for the big club in the event of injuries and under-performance. Our system is very deficient in this regard. The young guys on this list will shift position on the list or drop off in the next season or two-- that's how imprecise it is to evaluate young talent. In the end, unless about 5 of those guys progress to ML ready prospects in a couple of seasons, I think we'd have to conclude that Theo left the system in a bad place, because we have zero MLB ready talent right now.

[jacksonianmarch]

Well, it's difficult to say he left you with nothing. You do have Lavarnway and Kalish, who are likely to spend significant time with the sox in 2012. But the pitching aspect is dire, but he did go very young for 3 straight years, and that means that it takes much longer for your guys to get there. But typically the fruits of your labor are sweeter.

[a700hitter]

Well' date=' it's difficult to say he left you with nothing. You do have Lavarnway and Kalish, who are likely to spend significant time with the sox in 2012. But the pitching aspect is dire, but he did go very young for 3 straight years, and that means that it takes much longer for your guys to get there. But typically the fruits of your labor are sweeter.[/quote']Kalish got significant MLB time in 2010 and showed he could play at that level. He got derailed by injury in 2011, or he would have seen substantial MLB time in 2011. I don't consider him a prospect. He doesn't even have rookie status. He's a young major leaguer, not a prospect. Lavarnway has no position. Love his bat, but how do you get him in the line up-- a 24 year old DH? I don't think so.

[ORS]

But I have not seen anything that would suggest organizational strength at the higher levels in the farm. The big team cannot dip into the minors during 2012 to provide depth for injuries or under-performance.

Well, that is a different complaint than the one I quoted. I quoted you saying our system was weak because of some guy's ranking list and what players he had listed for some of the higher spots. I wasn't saying that there was no weakness in the farm system, just that the method you used to arrive at the conclusion that the farm is, overall, "weak", isn't a very good one.

 

It's true, most of the kids with better tools/talent are at lower, undeveloped levels. That's going to be the case following acquisitions of prime-time players like Gonzalez (and Victor Martinez only 1.5 years earlier), and deadline roster help like Bedard. I don't think it fair to demerit the system for lack of ready talent when the system has recently been used to subscribe to your preferred philosophy - that the ultimate value to the MLB team is to use their prospects to acquire stars (like Gonzalez and Martinez), or at least established veterans when there is need(like Bedard). If your point is that the farm should produce enough quality prospects to both land stars and provide ready talent to back up the big club, then I think you suffer from unrealistic expectations.

 

Also, I don't think the upper levels are as weak as you are suggesting. Alex Wilson is coming off a very solid year in AA/AAA and will start the year in the Pawtuckett rotation. Brentz is coming off a monster year in A/A+ and will start the year in the OF in Portland. These guys, Middlebrooks, Lavarnway, and Kalish are all realistic expectations of potential help if the big club needs help at their respective positions. Then, there's always to possibility of a highly regarded talent like Ranaudo, Iglesias, or even Tazawa showing improvement and being ready to contribute. I don't think it's anywhere near as dire as you are putting it.

[a700hitter]

Well, that is a different complaint than the one I quoted. I quoted you saying our system was weak because of some guy's ranking list and what players he had listed for some of the higher spots. I wasn't saying that there was no weakness in the farm system, just that the method you used to arrive at the conclusion that the farm is, overall, "weak", isn't a very good one.

 

It's true, most of the kids with better tools/talent are at lower, undeveloped levels. That's going to be the case following acquisitions of prime-time players like Gonzalez (and Victor Martinez only 1.5 years earlier), and deadline roster help like Bedard. I don't think it fair to demerit the system for lack of ready talent when the system has recently been used to subscribe to your preferred philosophy - that the ultimate value to the MLB team is to use their prospects to acquire stars (like Gonzalez and Martinez), or at least established veterans when there is need(like Bedard). If your point is that the farm should produce enough quality prospects to both land stars and provide ready talent to back up the big club, then I think you suffer from unrealistic expectations.

 

Also, I don't think the upper levels are as weak as you are suggesting. Alex Wilson is coming off a very solid year in AA/AAA and will start the year in the Pawtuckett rotation. Brentz is coming off a monster year in A/A+ and will start the year in the OF in Portland. These guys, Middlebrooks, Lavarnway, and Kalish are all realistic expectations of potential help if the big club needs help at their respective positions. Then, there's always to possibility of a highly regarded talent like Ranaudo, Iglesias, or even Tazawa showing improvement and being ready to contribute. I don't think it's anywhere near as dire as you are putting it.

Renaudo and Iglesias took steps backward in 2011, especially Iglesias. Tazawa had shown promise prior to his injury. Kalish is not a prospect. He no longer has rookie status. I consider him a major leaguer. Will he stick and how much will he produce are the only questions? Unless he is traded, he will have the RF job -- it's his to lose.

 

Not having a minor league system that can bolster or reinforce the big club is a big weakeness. The strength of our system with the younger players is not so phenomenal that it overcomes that weakness, and where is the depth of pitching prospects-- there is none. The system is overall just so-so at best. I may not have put a full analysis in my post, but that doesn't mean that I haven't made a full analysis. Seeing these lists just confirms my opinion.

[ORS]

Renaudo and Iglesias took steps backward in 2011' date=' especially Iglesias. Tazawa had shown promise prior to his injury. Kalish is not a prospect. He no longer has rookie status. I consider him a major leaguer. Will he stick and how much will he produce are the only questions? Unless he is traded, he will have the RF job -- it's his to lose.[/quote']

This is an example of where our disagreement hinges on divergent expectations for how they will use Kalish to start the year. After missing almost the entire season to injury prior to having earned the position in question, I'm skeptical they start the year with him as the starting RF in Boston. I think he starts the year in Pawtuckett. And, while it is true he has, by definition, lost his rookie status, I consider him as part of the system depth because I don't think he starts the year with the club.

 

Not having a minor league system that can bolster or reinforce the big club is a big weakeness. The strength of our system with the younger players is not so phenomenal that it overcomes that weakness, and where is the depth of pitching prospects-- there is none. The system is overall just so-so at best. I may not have put a full analysis in my post, but that doesn't mean that I haven't made a full analysis. Seeing these lists just confirms my opinion.

It is a weakness, I don't think anyone would argue that it isn't. I contend that it's not as dire as you claim (given the omission of the names I added).

 

Well, if you have made a full analysis, why don't you include it in your post? Seeing you say that makes me think that you are primarily interested in providing confirmation of your opinion (as you stated), and less interested in testing the validity of that opinion by reviewing the credibility of confirming evidence. Maybe it's just me, but I prefer to measure twice and cut once prior to making such strong statements about the overall state of something.

[a700hitter]

This is an example of where our disagreement hinges on divergent expectations for how they will use Kalish to start the year. After missing almost the entire season to injury prior to having earned the position in question' date=' I'm skeptical they start the year with him as the starting RF in Boston. I think he starts the year in Pawtuckett. And, while it is true he has, by definition, lost his rookie status, I consider him as part of the system depth because I don't think he starts the year with the club. [/quote']I am also skeptical, because i am familiar with his injury and surgery and it is a very serious situation for a baseball player. However, I do think that barring a trade, if he comes to camp and does well, he will have the starting job on opening day. We don't have anyone else right now to challenge him. Sweeney had a hard time playing full time for the A's.

It is a weakness, I don't think anyone would argue that it isn't. I contend that it's not as dire as you claim (given the omission of the names I added).

 

Well, if you have made a full analysis, why don't you include it in your post? Seeing you say that makes me think that you are primarily interested in providing confirmation of your opinion (as you stated), and less interested in testing the validity of that opinion by reviewing the credibility of confirming evidence. Maybe it's just me, but I prefer to measure twice and cut once prior to making such strong statements about the overall state of something.

It's a difference in our style. I post my thoughts and opinions first many times, mainly because it is the opinion that generates the discussion. I have always been willing to back it up or defend it if questioned or challenged. That's my posting style. I do my research first and then let the opinion fly and the debate commence. I do measure twice. I just don't always explain that i have.

 

BTW My wife assumes that i don't do any research when i purchase a car, because once I have decided what I want after diligent research about the car and the pricing, I will go to the dealer and cut the deal usually within an hour. She is convinced that I am impulsive.

[example1]

Not having a minor league system that can bolster or reinforce the big club is a big weakeness. The strength of our system with the younger players is not so phenomenal that it overcomes that weakness, and where is the depth of pitching prospects-- there is none. The system is overall just so-so at best. I may not have put a full analysis in my post, but that doesn't mean that I haven't made a full analysis. Seeing these lists just confirms my opinion.

 

I'm reversing the order of the posts because I think ORS answered the question before a700 brought it to light...

 

It's true' date=' most of the kids with better tools/talent are at lower, undeveloped levels. That's going to be the case following acquisitions of prime-time players like Gonzalez (and Victor Martinez only 1.5 years earlier), and deadline roster help like Bedard. I don't think it fair to demerit the system for lack of ready talent when the system has recently been used to subscribe to your preferred philosophy - that the ultimate value to the MLB team is to use their prospects to acquire stars (like Gonzalez and Martinez), or at least established veterans when there is need(like Bedard). [b']If your point is that the farm should produce enough quality prospects to both land stars and provide ready talent to back up the big club, then I think you suffer from unrealistic expectations.[/b]

 

There are very few systems that have the MLB ready impact players a700 is talking about AND the talent to land players like Victor Martinz, Adrian Gonzalez and mid-season pickups. Generally, the systems that have both (say, Kansas City) come with a s***** Major League club.

 

Secondly, I don't put much weight into the number of MLB ready prospects when evaluating a system. If the Red Sox have, say, a future Jon Lester and Dustin Pedroia in their system, they shouldn't be dinged for not having the Reed Johnson's and Carlos Silvas at AAA, particularly when they have traded those guys away. Navarro, Hagadone, Price, Rizzo, etc., were all moved for MLB talent.

 

Is it worse to have a number of yearly all-star caliber players at lower levels than to have a number of role players at the top levels with few/none who possess extreme talent?

 

We have seen the types of elite prospects who come out of the system formed by Theo: Pedroia, Lester, Ellsbury, Papelbon, Bard, Kalish, etc., are all superstar caliber talents. Why is it worse to have a number of those guys in waiting than to have a few guys who are MLB role players waiting to come in now? I don't get it.

 

All those young guys at single A are not just average "good" prospects coming through the system. They are the product of two consecutive seasons where the Sox have stockpiled draft picks in the high rounds and spent loads of money to sign the guys they want. That's not insignificant. And the fact that there are not 3-4 of those prospects but more like 10-15 says that in a few years the Sox should have a very rih payout indeed. The farm system is not merely a place to provide backup/depth talent. If used correctly, it should produce centerpieces for the future of the franchise. We have seen them do that already, and I have no reason to think it can't happen again. In my opinion, even a guy as highly regarded as Will Middlebrooks represents the low end of the talent that should be coming out of the system in the next 3-5 years.

 

Roughly half of the Sox currently 40 man roster is home grown talent. That's pretty good and is what we should expect moving forward.

[a700hitter]

The farm system is not merely a place to provide backup/depth talent. If used correctly, it should produce centerpieces for the future of the franchise. We have seen them do that already, and I have no reason to think it can't happen again.

 

In my opinion, even a guy as highly regarded as Will Middlebrooks represents the low end of the talent that should be coming out of the system in the next 3-5 years.

I agree with this, but with such thin benches in today's game due to the fact that teams often carry 11-12 pitchers, I think it is essential to have the farm system provide depth to the major league roster. As to your point about producing centerpieces for the future, that is obviously an important function, but we are 2-3 years away from seeing anything like that. The biggest deficiency across the board is pitching depth. There is none ready to step in if there is an injury and there doesn't seem to be a lot at the lower levels. I know you admired the young arms that the rays were able to bring out of their pen in 2011. Our system has nowhere near that wealth of live arms. When we bring up a guy, I bite my nails hoping that he doesn't take a wrecking ball to the game before he is able to get 3 outs.

[example1]

I agree with this' date=' but with such thin benches in today's game due to the fact that teams often carry 11-12 pitchers, [b'] I think it is essential to have the farm system provide depth to the major league roster. As to your point about producing centerpieces for the future, that is obviously an important function, but we are 2-3 years away from seeing anything like that. [/b]

 

More essential than having a system that produces centerpieces (i.e., $20m+ value players) or key trading piees for the 20m value players? I think MLB depth is the 3rd most important function of the system, honestly.

 

As for the centerpieces being 2-3 years away, I'm not sure I agree. Kalish and Lavarnway could both be all-star caliber players and both should get key time in 2012. Middlebrooks could be ready by 2013 and although I don't think he's at the centerpiece level, I could be wrong. He is supposed to be a very balanced offense-defense player.

 

The biggest deficiency across the board is pitching depth. There is none ready to step in if there is an injury and there doesn't seem to be a lot at the lower levels. I know you admired the young arms that the rays were able to bring out of their pen in 2011. Our system has nowhere near that wealth of live arms. When we bring up a guy, I bite my nails hoping that he doesn't take a wrecking ball to the game before he is able to get 3 outs.

 

First, I think most fans of most teams bite their nails with all rookies. That's the nature of unproven talent.

 

Second, the live arms I admire from Tampa are guys like Matt Moore. He's a diamond in the rough. Drafted in 2007, he wasn't available in 2008, 2009 or 2010 for Tampa, they had to wait on him too. All teams have to wait on talent.

 

The Sox do have some arms who can help next year. I'm still pretty high on Doubront and Wilson and both can help next year. Wilson is a closer in waiting, which usually works pretty well as a 7th inning guy. Doubront has looked good in the past, but was lazy and out of shape last year. We can hope he can come back. He's good enough to be a back end starter when he's throwing well. Same with Tazawa.

[a700hitter]

More essential than having a system that produces centerpieces (i.e., $20m+ value players) or key trading piees for the 20m value players? I think MLB depth is the 3rd most important function of the system, honestly.

 

As for the centerpieces being 2-3 years away, I'm not sure I agree. Kalish and Lavarnway could both be all-star caliber players and both should get key time in 2012. Middlebrooks could be ready by 2013 and although I don't think he's at the centerpiece level, I could be wrong. He is supposed to be a very balanced offense-defense player.

I don't disagree with the ordering of your priorities, but the over all grade is still so-so, IMO. If depth was the #1 priority, it would be much worse than so-so.

 

Kalish is most probably the RF starter. He's not depth. He no longer has rookie status. He was a major leaguer in 2010 who got derailed by injuries. Lavarnway really has no position. Unless they can get him to the point of being a competent catcher, we don't need a 24 year old DH. We'll have to see if Middlebrooks is ready in 2013 to be a centerpiece. It usually takes a couple of years at the major league level before a guy establishes himself and he is at least a year away from the majors. That's why i said 2-3 years away. Not everyone hits the ground running like Pedroia. Very few do, and even he had a couple of bumpy months (Sept 2006 and April 2007). He's the exception.

 

 

The Sox do have some arms who can help next year. I'm still pretty high on Doubront and Wilson and both can help next year. Wilson is a closer in waiting' date=' which usually works pretty well as a 7th inning guy. Doubront has looked good in the past, but was lazy and out of shape last year. We can hope he can come back. He's good enough to be a back end starter when he's throwing well. Same with Tazawa.[/quote']I think you are somewhat overly optimistic about these guys. I like Doubront's stuff and his poise, but at age 24 it is put up or shut up time for him. he needs to take the next step. Tazawa-- The road back from injury is a long one and he never had great stuff prior to his injury. Is there anything about Wilson that would make you believe that he will be any better than Weiland was in 2011?

[example1]

Is there anything about Wilson that would make you believe that he will be any better than Weiland was in 2011?

 

1. He's likely to be used as a low leverage reliever in the future

2. He's not Weiland

 

 

I don't think that the track record of some other player in any way predicts what happens with Wilson.

 

All prospects are different.