Yankees 2010-2011 Hotstove Thread

[Palodios]

I seriously can't see the Yankees going into 2011 without either Lee or Greinke.

[Meh]

You guys know if lee goes to the nats we aren't getting grienke correct?

[jacksonianmarch]

I seriously can't see the Yankees going into 2011 without either Lee or Greinke.

 

We arent getting Greinke, it just isnt worth it. I do not see a scenario where the Yankees go into 2011 without Cliff Lee, though. Nobody beats a 6yr $150 million contract, which is what I think the Yankees eventually sign Lee to

[Palodios]

We arent getting Greinke' date=' it just isnt worth it. I do not see a scenario where the Yankees go into 2011 without Cliff Lee, though. Nobody beats a 6yr $150 million contract, which is what I think the Yankees eventually sign Lee to[/quote']

 

Notice the or. I know you may optimistic about your team, but I think even you know that this team needs a #2 to lock things down, otherwise you get another 2010 ALCS. If worst case scenario happens, and Lee gets Werth-ed, do you really think they can stack up against Buchholz/Lester?

[Meh]

Notice the or. I know you may optimistic about your team' date=' but I think even you know that this team needs a #2 to lock things down, otherwise you get another 2010 ALCS. If worst case scenario happens, and Lee gets Werth-ed, do you really think they can stack up against Buchholz/Lester?[/quote']

 

I like our offense and it's not like CC, Hughes and Andy isn't a nice start to the rotation.

[a700hitter]

Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes that the Yankees have vowed not to exceed six years or the $161MM that they gave Sabathia for Lee. Sherman feels the Yankees will top out at $144MM-$150MM over six years. As GM Brian Cashman said, Sabathia's presence as an ace makes Lee a "pleasant addition," but not a necessity. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports discusses how signing Lee could affect Sabathia.

The Yankees are vowing not to go beyond 6 years. Expect a 10 year deal with them.

[jacksonianmarch]

Notice the or. I know you may optimistic about your team' date=' but I think even you know that this team needs a #2 to lock things down, otherwise you get another 2010 ALCS. If worst case scenario happens, and Lee gets Werth-ed, do you really think they can stack up against Buchholz/Lester?[/quote']

 

I do. I have a feeling Buchholz corrects back to his BABIP and shows that he is an above average pitcher rather than lockdown ace

[Palodios]

I like our offense and it's not like CC' date=' Hughes and Andy isn't a nice start to the rotation.[/quote']

 

What if Pettite is in fact retiring?

[Palodios]

I do. I have a feeling Buchholz corrects back to his BABIP and shows that he is an above average pitcher rather than lockdown ace

 

Wasn't this sort of a joke last season? Someone suggested him to have a lucky BABIP, and that he was due for correction... and while his ERA stayed the same, his BABIP dropped? And on a side note, who exactly are the #4 and #5 pitchers as of right now?

[Meh]

What if Pettite is in fact retiring?

 

Well I don't think he is but if he does let's start with what we have. An ace in CC. A fine starter in Hughes who is still what 23 or 24? AJ is AJ, but I love the hiring of Rothschild it's like a special order pitching coach for AJ. I think he suits him very well, im excited to see what he does with AJ. Nova could be the 5th starter and make adjustments mduring the season or what not.

 

Who could we add? As I said before, Chein Ming Wang would be at the top of my list.

[jacksonianmarch]

Wasn't this sort of a joke last season? Someone suggested him to have a lucky BABIP' date=' and that he was due for correction... and while his ERA stayed the same, his BABIP dropped? And on a side note, who exactly are the #4 and #5 pitchers as of right now?[/quote']

 

His BABIP was .265 last yr. That suggests a correction is in order

[Spudboy]

I do. I have a feeling Buchholz corrects back to his BABIP and shows that he is an above average pitcher rather than lockdown ace

 

Why do say that?

[Dipre]

His BABIP was .265 last yr. That suggests a correction is in order

 

Do you really believe his BABIP returning to normal levels is going to alter his ERA by an amount of a run or more? If the answer is no, then you know he'll still be within Ace range of production, if the answer is yes, i'd like to know why. Given his age, there's as much reason to believe his peripherals will improve as to believe the BABIP will correct itself.

[jacksonianmarch]

I think his ERA is due for a correction into the high 3's range which takes you out of ace range and more into #2 (or very good) range.

[a700hitter]

I think his ERA is due for a correction into the high 3's range which takes you out of ace range and more into #2 (or very good) range.

Would you like to hand Clay the ball instead of Burnett every 5th day?

[Dipre]

I think his ERA is due for a correction into the high 3's range which takes you out of ace range and more into #2 (or very good) range.

 

But based on what?

 

As i said before, there's a pretty good chance his peripherals (specially BB/9) improve as his BABIP normalizes. You're not giving me a reason why it will correct into the high 3's instead of low or mid 3's.

 

and what if the BABIP remains flukey next year given the significant amount of GB (50.8%) he induced?

 

What if the GB% stays the same and the K's improve?

 

I'm not following here.

[jacksonianmarch]

Groundball pitchers typically have BABIPs at or higher than .300 since groundballs have a better chance of being hits than flyballs, which lends to an even bigger anomaly in his BABIP than is already there. Listen, he had a hell of a year, but I highly, highly doubt he stays under 3.50 for 2011. Very highly doubt it

[Dipre]

Groundball pitchers typically have BABIPs at or higher than .300 since groundballs have a better chance of being hits than flyballs' date=' which lends to an even bigger anomaly in his BABIP than is already there. Listen, he had a hell of a year, but I highly, highly doubt he stays under 3.50 for 2011. Very highly doubt it[/quote']

 

Again, based on what.

 

Do you expect no advancement on his peripherals?

 

Do you have a specific reason why his BABIP will regress? Did you know that your point is wrong?

 

Use Chien-Ming Wang (.294 career BABIP), Brandon Webb (.294 career BABIP) or Jon Garland (.288 career BABIP) as reference.

 

Can you give me significant example of groundball pitchers with very high career BABIP?

 

I'm waiting.

[VA Sox Fan]

Again' date=' based on what.[/b']

Do you expect no advancement on his peripherals?

 

Do you have a specific reason why his BABIP will regress? Did you know that your point is wrong?

 

Use Chien-Ming Wang (.294 career BABIP), Brandon Webb (.294 career BABIP) or Jon Garland (.288 career BABIP) as reference.

 

Can you give me significant example of groundball pitchers with very high career BABIP?

 

I'm waiting.

 

Based on the fact that he pitches for the Red Sox and not the NYY

[jacksonianmarch]

I dont think his peripherals improve enough to offset a massive correction in his BABIP. I am sorry, but a 2.33ERA is a stellar season, something that is rarely done in the AL and especially in the East. I highly, highly, doubt he does it again.

[jacksonianmarch]

And based on the fact that he has done it for exactly one season. He was hit or miss prior to this past season and then came out and had a Cy Young caliber year. I'd like to see him prove me wrong, but I think he ends up being a solid #2. I do not think he reproduces his ace 2010 season

[Dipre]

You're still not telling me anything.

 

Couple of pointers:

 

A) In the AL, "Ace-type production" is basically lower 3's ERA and a healthy amount of quality starts.

 

B ) Bucholz' current age is one that (like you have excitedly said about Phil Hughes so many times) lends itself to peripheral development.

 

C) Your initial point was shot down, you resort to "he's done it with year" but if you have any knowledge about Buch's stuff and minor league numbers (and you do) and the Sox developmental approach (See: Lester, Jon) you know that there's a pretty good chance that Buch's GB numbers maintain themselves next season but his peripherals improve.

 

That being said: His ERA will obviously not be in the low 2's next year, but all seems to indicate (except your bias) that aside from a BABIP correction which isn't as significant as you're trying to make it seem, there's no real reason why he'd regress as much as you state he will.

 

Agree to disagree if you'd like, but expect the call-out post once the stellar 2011 season with similar GB numbers, increased K rate and decreased BB rate rolls along with a very low 3's ERA. Calling it now.

[jacksonianmarch]

I'll eat crow if he does, but I will tell you right now, his ERA will be over 3.50 this coming season

[ORS]

IIRC, Jacko's point last year was that his WHIP was not indicative of his ERA and that it (ERA) go up, without even looking at the specific rates (K/9, BB/9, etc.) and BABIP. In fact, I don't recall BABIP being in the conversation. The people that argued with him said, yes, it's true that the WHIP doesn't support the ERA, but rather than the ERA going up, the WHIP could come down. Which it did.

 

Now it appears he's shifting gears, admittedly to a valid point, because his original prediction, the only one we'll ever get BTW - ie that a Sox player will get worse (I know, shocking isn't it?), was wrong. So in order to maintain the only point he'll ever make, again - that a Sox player will get worse, he's fishing for another reason.

 

Personally, none of us know what's going to happen. You can't predict BABIP. And his rates were all over the board in different parts of the season last year. Whatever happens, happens, but there's equal room to argue either side, although none of it will be overwhelmingly convincing for this simple reason, he hasn't played in the bigs long enough to give you any idea of what to consistently expect from him.

[Palodios]

Buster Olney says "The Yankees are prepared to zig off Cliff Lee if necessary". What does zig mean? Is that an obscure Zero Wing reference?

[jacksonianmarch]

Zig as in zig zag. Meaning, they were prepared to move off him. With Crawford getting insane money from the sox, I doubt that is going to happen. Lee went from being nice to being absolutely necessary and I think Cashman knows this

[Cocos Disciples]

Lee was always necessary, in the Yankee sense of the word. They have three starters locked down for 2011 and one of them is AJ Burnett. That's not going to fly. Lee is a Yankee.

[jacksonianmarch]

So the Yanks offered a menu of options, including a 7 yr deal world slightly less than CC's contract. I highly doubt the Rangers can beat that

[BSN07]

So the Yanks offered a menu of options' date=' including a 7 yr deal world slightly less than CC's contract. I highly doubt the Rangers can beat that[/quote']

 

Do they seriously want to? I'm starting to get the feeling whoever gets Lee for 7 years will be kicking themselves by year 5. Could be wrong though. Should be interesting. I've said for awhile I think Texas would be better off getting Grienke and putting all that money into other parts of the roster.

[yankees228]

I'd be thrilled if the Yankees got Lee. While I agree that it's too long, in today's game (especially with the Yankees' resources), what's more important is what they have now, not what they'll have in five years. I'll enjoy the first four or five years when he's very good, and worry about the back end of the contract when the time comes. I'd imagine this is the way the Yankees are viewing the situation as well.

 

With that said, I really have no idea what Cliff Lee is thinking, and wouldn't be surprised at all if he went back to Texas. It sounds like the Rangers made some very competitive offers yesterday, to the point where the difference in money is probably marginal.