The "Unofficial Pre- Hot Stove (2010)" thread.

[Yaz Sideburn]

You think ellsbury will get that much in arb even with the season he had this year?

 

i used bj upton as a precedent. he made $3 million in the same year of arbitration after a down year so i think it's reasonable for ellsbury to make $2.5 million

[Yaz Sideburn]

Yaz-- good to finally see all those numbers in the same place. It is a little different than my numbers though --did you miss Beltre's cash coming off? Still' date=' a very helpful reference for hot stove discussion.[/quote']

 

you're right, not sure how i missed that one. i'll revise it

[Yaz Sideburn]

if the red sox trade papelbon, they'll have more money than they know what to do with. they could pick up the option on ortiz, sign v-mart to a 4 year/60 million deal with the intention of using him as the dh after 2011 and they'd have over $30 million to spend on a third baseman, relief pitchers and a backup infielder

 

i wouldn't be surprised if they get involved in the cliff lee sweepstakes. matsuzaka is signed to a very reasonable contract and i imagine they could find someone willing to take him off their hands. and if they did it would free up an additional $10 million of salary

[jacksonianmarch]

I think there is a VERY good chance that the sox pare down their payroll while improving their club. Dont expect them to approach $170 mil again.

[example1]

I think there is a VERY good chance that the sox pare down their payroll while improving their club. Dont expect them to approach $170 mil again.

 

I agree. 170m is "bloated payroll" territory for the Red Sox. They seem to get into "bloated" zone at the end of contracts for veterans. In this case it is Lowell, Ortiz, V-Mart and Lugo (among others). I think they would much prefer to have younger, cheaper guys with the occasional supplemental bloated contract.

 

Flexability-wise I think this franchise is in good shape.

[soxfan74]

I think there is a VERY good chance that the sox pare down their payroll while improving their club. Dont expect them to approach $170 mil again.

 

I think your exactly right on this one. That is the right direction for them to go as well.

[Yaz Sideburn]

I think there is a VERY good chance that the sox pare down their payroll while improving their club. Dont expect them to approach $170 mil again.

 

i expect them to stay right around the luxury tax threshold, that's what they usually do.

[Yaz Sideburn]

they could pontentially bring back ortiz and v-mart, sign a big name position player, trade for a corner infielder, replenish the bullpen and still lower their salary in the process

[EXman369]

Thats smart to compare it to BJ Upton, i feel as if the sox sign a big outfeiler a la werth or crawford and shure up the bullpen, and sign a player to a 1 year deal either at 1B or 3B to wait untill the 1B market opens up in 2012.

[jacksonianmarch]

I agree. 170m is "bloated payroll" territory for the Red Sox. They seem to get into "bloated" zone at the end of contracts for veterans. In this case it is Lowell, Ortiz, V-Mart and Lugo (among others). I think they would much prefer to have younger, cheaper guys with the occasional supplemental bloated contract.

 

Flexability-wise I think this franchise is in good shape.

 

Flexibility wise, they are in fantastic shape. Unfortunately, they are hitting their flexibility time at the wrong developmental time for their farm. A lot of their higher ceiling prospects are not ready to take on full time roles in 2011, and the FA market aside from really 3 players (outside of their own team) sucks. This means that the sox could theoretically go out and significantly overpay the top guys in a barren market, OR, they could hold pat for a yr and wait for 2012, when the market improves again.

[Yaz Sideburn]

Flexibility wise' date=' they are in fantastic shape. Unfortunately, they are hitting their flexibility time at the wrong developmental time for their farm. A lot of their higher ceiling prospects are not ready to take on full time roles in 2011, and the FA market aside from really 3 players (outside of their own team) sucks. This means that the sox could theoretically go out and significantly overpay the top guys in a barren market, OR, they could hold pat for a yr and wait for 2012, when the market improves again.[/quote']

 

i imagine the red sox will acquire a player via trade to fill one of their needs and will acquire a big name free agent like crawford who is an elite player at their position

[Palodios]

Well, there are 3 elite guys in crawford/werth/lee but there are several other guys that could make an impact, for shorter contracts. Dunn, and Konerko come to mind, Al-gon, and a few first basemen who might want a reboot from a bad 2010.

[Yaz Sideburn]

i think we all can agree that we need to address the bullpen. which relievers interest you guys?

[Yaz Sideburn]

Well' date=' there are 3 elite guys in crawford/werth/lee but there are several other guys that could make an impact, for shorter contracts. Dunn, and Konerko come to mind, Al-gon, and a few first basemen who might want a reboot from a bad 2010.[/quote']

 

dunn would be a great replacement for ortiz if the red sox choose not to pick up his option. and carlos pena might be next year's adrian beltre if the sox could sign him to a 1 year deal to up his free agent stock after a down year

[BSN07]

The BP help is probably gonna come through trade. The FA market for RP is meh. And ultimately just cost too much money for what it's worth. I would really like to see the Sox pry Nunez away from the Marlins.

 

 

 

 

2011 FA RP

 

Relief Pitchers

Jeremy Affeldt SF

Grant Balfour TB

Jesse Crain MIN

Scott Downs TOR

Chad Durbin PHI

Kyle Farnsworth ATL

Pedro Feliciano NYM

Jason Frasor TOR

Brian Fuentes LAA *

Chad Gaudin NYY

Matt Guerrier MIN

Aaron Heilman ARZ

Mike Lincoln CIN

Brian Moehler HOU

J.J. Putz CWS

Chad Qualls TB

Jon Rauch MIN

Arthur Rhodes CIN

David Riske MIL *

Mariano Rivera NYY

J.C. Romero PHI *

Bobby Seay DET

Scott Shields LAA

Brian Shouse BOS

Matt Thornton CWS *

Kerry Wood NYY *

[Dojji]

The obvious trade target is probably the Dodgers. They have a ton of interesting high-leverage arms right now. I'd trade real value for Keney Jansen for example

[Palodios]

If they couldn't get a reliever at the deadline for a good deal, what makes you think they can get a good deal now? There are 5 guys on that list that I'd be more than happy to see on this team, including quite a few from the AL East.

[BSN07]

The obvious trade target is probably the Dodgers. They have a ton of interesting high-leverage arms right now. I'd trade real value for Keney Jansen for example

 

I was thinking the same thing. The Dodgers situation doesn't look good and they have a few decent arms that could be available.

[Palodios]

Crains, Balfour, Downs, Feliciano, Guerreri, Rauch, Rhodes, Rivera, Thornton all have an ERA of 3.35 or lower this season. Is it really worth giving away high quality prospects when any of those guys would significantly help the team?

There are others too, I just didn't feel like going through them all.

[Will617]

Rivera isn't going anywhere. Downs will cost a first rounder. Other than that I'd like any of those guys.

Dodgers would want payroll relief more than anything else, IMO. If they have any high-salary relievers, I don't think it would cost much in prospects.

[Dojji]

I'd go after Downs first rounder or not, if I didn't think at least a handful of teams are going to be scouting him as a possible closer. If he wants to close, nothing we offer will do to get him here, because he will not close here.

[a700hitter]

Crains, Balfour, Downs, Feliciano, Guerreri, Rauch, Rhodes, Rivera, Thornton all have an ERA of 3.35 or lower this season. Is it really worth giving away high quality prospects when any of those guys would significantly help the team?

There are others too, I just didn't feel like going through them all.

Rivera is staying with the Yankees. Other than Downs, the rest are train wrecks. I'm not sure about Thornton. I haven't seen a lot of him.

[Palodios]

Rivera is staying with the Yankees. Other than Downs' date=' the rest are train wrecks. I'm not sure about Thornton. I haven't seen a lot of him.[/quote']

 

They all have ERAs under 3.30. This team has one guy who will finish the season with an ERA that low. Any of them will help the team, and there are about 5 other quality guys I haven't even mentioned. Normally I'd ask that you don't hate on players that will help this team, but you're incapable of that.

[a700hitter]

They all have ERAs under 3.30. This team has one guy who will finish the season with an ERA that low. Any of them will help the team' date=' and there are about 5 other quality guys I haven't even mentioned.[b'] Normally I'd ask that you don't hate on players that will help this team, but you're incapable of that.[/b]

What's this about? Are we discussing sports or attacking each other? I don't think most of those pitchers are very good options. You answer that with a snarky personal attack?:thumbdown

[Spudboy]

They all have ERAs under 3.30. This team has one guy who will finish the season with an ERA that low. Any of them will help the team' date=' and there are about 5 other quality guys I haven't even mentioned. [b']Normally I'd ask that you don't hate on players that will help this team, but you're incapable of that.[/b]

 

Was that necessary?

[Palodios]

No one else gets irritated when he calls quality players "train wrecks" and "scrubs" on a daily basis? I get tired of the bitching. If this team had any single one of those guys this season instead of okajima or delcarmen, this team would be much closer in the division.

[a700hitter]

No one else gets irritated when he calls quality players "train wrecks" and "scrubs" on a daily basis? Its not like he's contributing to the discussion' date=' just bitching about good options. If this team had any single one of those guys this season instead of okajima or delcarmen, this team would be much closer in the division.[/quote']Is my stark opinion about players an attack on you? You should resist the urge to personally attack a poster for his opinion. BTW: You can be pretty annoying at times too.

 

I said that I like Downs and that I don't know about Thornton. I think we can find better options than the others from within the organization, with the exception of Feliciano as a situational lefty.

[BSN07]

The obvious trade target is probably the Dodgers. They have a ton of interesting high-leverage arms right now. I'd trade real value for Keney Jansen for example

 

I saw Broxton was removed from the closer's role for a few games a little while back. What's the story there? Has he fallen out of favor or was it just a kick in the ass to get him going? I would have to imagine he is getting expensive soon. It might match up.

 

 

This is easily the biggest long shot. But was worth discussing. A Kemp+Broxton acquisition would be ideal

[a700hitter]

I saw Broxton was removed from the closer's role for a few games a little while back. What's the story there? Has he fallen out of favor or was it just a kick in the ass to get him going? I would have to imagine he is getting expensive soon. It might match up.

 

 

This is easily the biggest long shot. But was worth discussing. A Kemp+Broxton acquisition would be ideal

Broxton was sucking big time. It was not just a kick in the ass. He was having some major meltdowns.

[a700hitter]

Damon 0 fer 6 today on a team going nowhere. f*** him. He's dead to me.