The "Unofficial Pre- Hot Stove (2010)" thread.

[Will617]

Next year seems like a make-or-break year for Reddick.

[a700hitter]

I've got to agree with ORS here. Nava is a competent hitter and has a very good eye. He's also a switch-hitter. I see no reason that he wouldn't have a very good shot of holding down a future bench/4th OF spot for the next few years. I think their goal will be to find a way for Kalish to get regular playing time--otherwise they would have him at AAA getting continued ABs.

 

Nava and McDonald are both players who don't necessarily need to mature at the AAA level. Kalish needs to play.

 

I think Kalish may have shown enough to warrant a regular spot on the roster, and probably as a starter. If they go after Crawford or maybe Werth then i would change my view, but with kalish ready and Nava/Reddick set to back him up, I think they will spend their money on other needs.

I view Werth as a miniature switch hitting version of Matt Stairs with a lot less power. There is no roster spot on the Sox for such a player. We have a need for a power stick in the OF. That is one of our big needs IMO. Kalish would be a perfect 4th OFer because he can play all 3 positions, and getting 350 ABs would be great for his development. Nice Grand Salami against Weaver tonight!

 

I'll go on record that Nava doesn't break camp with the Sox next year whether or not we get Crawford or Werth.

[jacksonianmarch]

Depends on who the sox have in the OF. If they have 2 guys starting who are capable of playing CF, then Nava will be the 4th OFer. If the sox get Werth and have Ellsbury or Cameron in CF, then Nava wont be. The sox need 2 players capable of playing CF. If both of those guys are starting, then they can carry Nava

[Dojji]

Gotta throw those first two years out for Werth. He had a total of 104 PA.

 

Even with that he doesn't stack up to Youk in terms of consistency. It's not as big an issue now, but as he gets older the boogeymen he's earned his way past now will reassert themselves.

 

Next year seems like a make-or-break year for Reddick.

 

Might seem that way but I'm not sure it's true. He needs to put himself in position to earn a job when Drew and Cameron's contracts expire, but I'd say that as far as "make or break" goes, that's more 2012 for Reddick.

[jacksonianmarch]

Reddick is behind Kalish and Nava on the OF depth chart. Next yr is his make or break yr, but I think it will be made on another club. He's prime trade bait

[Dojji]

I view Werth as a miniature switch hitting version of Matt Stairs with a lot less power. There is no roster spot on the Sox for such a player. We have a need for a power stick in the OF. That is one of our big needs IMO. Kalish would be a perfect 4th OFer because he can play all 3 positions, and getting 350 ABs would be great for his development. Nice Grand Salami against Weaver tonight!

 

I'll go on record that Nava doesn't break camp with the Sox next year whether or not we get Crawford or Werth.

 

Power isn't everything. He's got great contact ability, and he's already shown strong line drive gap ability, which is better than sporadic homers most of the time. If he an gain consistency with his batting average/OBP at the big league level there is no reason whatsoever he can't be a great 4th OF.

[a700hitter]

Power isn't everything. He's got great contact ability' date=' and he's already shown strong line drive gap ability, which is better than sporadic homers most of the time. If he an gain consistency with his batting average/OBP at the big league level there is no reason whatsoever he can't be a great 4th OF.[/quote']He might find a spot on someone's bench for a few years, but I don't think it will be with the Red Sox.

[Palodios]

Even with that he doesn't stack up to Youk in terms of consistency. It's not as big an issue now' date=' but as he gets older the boogeymen he's earned his way past now will reassert themselves..[/quote']

 

What the hell do you have against the guy? He had 40 mediocre games as a rookie, and had injury problems early in his career. After that, he's been extremely successful. Move on please.

[a700hitter]

What the hell do you have against the guy? He had 40 mediocre games as a rookie. After that' date=' he's been extremely successful. Move on please.[/quote']Somehow the guy is a ticking time bomb even though he is only 31 and completely healthy? I could buy the argument that he has been helped by the small ballpark, but I am not buying the late bloomer- early decliner argument.

[Dojji]

We're going to be signing him longterm to big money. Yes I *am* worried that it took him as long as it did to get good, because that suggests that there are flaws in his game that could very easily reassert themselves as he hits 35.

[Will617]

By "make-or-break", I mean Reddick needs to consistently perform at AAA to have a shot at making the team in 2012.

I wonder if we could keep Lowell one more year at first, and play VMart there often. There aren't many long-term solutions at 1B/3B, and none better than Pujols/Fielder/Gonzalez in 2012. Lowell's looked good at first, and he still hits well; it's a question of whether his health can hold up.

[a700hitter]

Somehow the guy is a ticking time bomb even though he is only 31 and completely healthy? I could buy the argument that he has been helped by the small ballpark' date=' but I am not buying the late bloomer- early decliner argument.[/quote']What about early bloomers early decliners like Andruw Jones?

[jacksonianmarch]

you talking to yourself again?

 

I think Jones is a PED kid, to be totally honest. He ballooned physically and went from a kid with nice power to incredible power, then the lights went out

[Palodios]

We're going to be signing him longterm to big money. Yes I *am* worried that it took him as long as it did to get good' date=' because that suggests that there are flaws in his game that could very easily reassert themselves as he hits 35.[/quote']

 

You keep bringing this up, but its simply not true. His first stint in the majors was when he was in 2002 (23). His first good season was 2004 (25). He broke his wrist early in 2005, so his stats suffered(26), and eventually lost the entire 2006 season(27). From 2007-2010, he has been a very good player.

 

It is not unusual for a player to start becoming a great player at age 25. I simply will not argue this point any further.

[jacksonianmarch]

He was stuck in LA where he was a platoon guy. He didnt really get a true chance until he left LA and went to Philly

[a700hitter]

He was stuck in LA where he was a platoon guy. He didnt really get a true chance until he left LA and went to Philly

He could be a product of little Citizens Park. That would concern me. What are his splits?

[Palodios]

Home/away by year

2010 1.060/.800

2009 .902/.857

2008 .835/.887

2007 .837 .890

 

I don't think its a make-or-break it factor, especially since Fenway is a pretty good hitter's park anyway.

[jacksonianmarch]

And being a righty power guy in Fenway wouldnt help his cause? Fenway is a righty's dream

[Will617]

.280/.371/.492 home, .263/.362/.463 away. Not a terrible big difference, especially since a lot of hit better at home than away, even in pitcher's parks.

[a700hitter]

.280/.371/.492 home' date=' .263/.362/.463 away. Not a terrible big difference, especially since a lot of hit better at home than away, even in pitcher's parks.[/quote']His home-away splits don't cause me much concern. He'd be a very nice pickup.

[BSN07]

I could get on board for Werth.

[PineRider]

I could get on board for Werth.

 

I could too. Seems like a nice fit for Fenway.

[jacksonianmarch]

So, let's say the sox finish 5 games out of a playff spot and dont make it. This is the roster you are left with under your control not counting the minor leaguers who did not make the bigs for an extended period of time this yr

 

C- Salty

C- Brown

1B- Youkilis

2B- Pedroia

SS- Scutaro

3B- Lowrie

LF- Ellsbury

CF- Cameron

RF- Drew

DH- Nava

OF- Kalish

OF- Reddick

 

1- Lester

2- Buchholz

3- Beckett

4- Lackey

5- DiceK

6- Okajima- if offered arb

7- Delcarmen- if offered arb

8- Bard

9- Papelbon

10- Atchison

11- Wakefield

12- Richardson

 

Obviously, that isnt the team that will be fielded, but those are the guys under contract for 2011.

 

Here is a non-updated list of 2011 FA's

http://www.suite101.com/content/2011-mlb-free-agents-a154274

[jacksonianmarch]

I am going to put myself into Theo's shoes for a second...

 

Catcher

So, what are you gonna do at the catcher position. You have Salty, and you have a player in VMart who wants to come back pretty heavily. But it is pretty obvious that VMart's days of catching are coming to a close. Which is why I wouldnt consider VMart a C at all. But Salty is far from a guy who you hand the position to outright, since Salty might end up going the way of VMart and moving off the position due to his defensive deficiencies.

 

So I would follow the big rumors that have flowed through this site recently and I would go out and get Chris Iannetta. He is going to cost a pretty penny. But he's a local kid with power in his bat, a good plate approach and a much better catcher than either VMart or Salty. He would probably cost you Doubront + a few other close to MLB ready guys, but he would be worth it in Fenway especially.

 

First base-

So, you have Youkilis and Beltre at the corner IF positions this season. Well, Beltre is a guy I wouldnt touch with a 10 foot pole on a long term deal and my guess is that he rides his way out of time with Boras pulling at the reigns. And the 3B market is ABSYMAL after this season aside from Beltre. So, the most logical thing to do is move Youk back to 3b. Then, you have a lot to choose from on the 1b side. Here are the list of guys who could actually make sense at the 1b position

 

VMart, Dunn, Konerko, Lee, Pena

 

Those are 5 guys with solid above average to elite bats. But you also dont want to run into a player who is going to have to be moved off the position into a DH role if you give them a long term deal. And with Fenway being a righty hitters dream, it might make more sense to go out and get a righty. Also, with AdGon probably not being available until the deadline in 2011 at the earliest, the sox are probably not going to want a 1b that is locked in long term. So, how about a 1 yr deal for a guy like Derrek Lee? He's having a massively bad yr, but was playing on a team that sucked monkey ass this yr in Chicago. If he shows any signs of life in Atlanta, how about putting him at 1b and seeing if he can find his stuff from 2009, where he batted .306 and hit 35 homers. He's very good defensively and should be completely healthy. And if he bombs out, it's a short term deal and allows you to chase Adrian Gonzalez unimpeded.

 

Left Field

I think the sox are going to make a major move in the OF, since Cameron and Ellsbury obviously havent worked out this season. I do expect the sox to move Ellsbury back to CF and use Cameron in a 4th OFer/intermittent DH role. But the sox need some more thunder out of their LF position, especially with Drew showing some signs of regression. You could go out and get Brad Hawpe and hope that this yr is a fluke? Hell, I'd love for him to be on the Yankees. But I think the sox are gonna have money to burn and going that route isnt as guaranteed as it would be if you went out and signed Jayson Werth. Give him a 4 yr deal a la Jason Bay and watch him club homers onto Landsdowne street on a nightly basis. He would be a beast in Fenway. This then allows redundancy in CF with Cameron and allows the sox to use Cameron/Lowrie/Salty/Iannetta/etc at DH if needed....

 

Designated Hitter

I am unsure of what to do about Ortiz. The 1 yr deal is absolutely enticing, and there is no buyout, so it is truly a $12.5 million option. But what would his worth be? Maybe $8 million? So, is it worth risking $4.5 million by just picking it up, or do you risk losing him over that same $4.5 million if another team came swooping in and signed him to a 2 yr deal? One thing I would absolutely not do is sign him to anything more than a 1 yr guaranteed deal. I'd add club options on, but no player or vesting options. He's a ticking time bomb and flexibility is important. I think I would just take the option, pay him the $12.5 million and at least fill the hole for 1 more yr until guys like Salty and Iannetta settle in or until the sox see what their 1b situation looks like.

 

So, the lineup that I put together goes something like this

 

C- Iannetta/Saltalamacchia

1B- Lee

2B- Pedroia

SS- Scutaro/Lowrie

3B- Youkilis

LF- Werth

CF- Ellsbury/Cameron

RF- Drew

DH- Ortiz

 

That might do the trick while also keeping two major offensive positions (1b/DH) very flexibile

[example1]

I am going to put myself into Theo's shoes for a second...

 

A pretty solid effort overall I would say Jacko. I'm sure my thoughts will develop in the offseason, but my initial thoughts...

 

Catcher

So, what are you gonna do at the catcher position. You have Salty, and you have a player in VMart who wants to come back pretty heavily. But it is pretty obvious that VMart's days of catching are coming to a close. Which is why I wouldnt consider VMart a C at all. But Salty is far from a guy who you hand the position to outright, since Salty might end up going the way of VMart and moving off the position due to his defensive deficiencies.

 

So I would follow the big rumors that have flowed through this site recently and I would go out and get Chris Iannetta. He is going to cost a pretty penny. But he's a local kid with power in his bat, a good plate approach and a much better catcher than either VMart or Salty. He would probably cost you Doubront + a few other close to MLB ready guys, but he would be worth it in Fenway especially.

 

Not sure about Iannetta, but the idea seems solid. I think the Sox are about two years from having their internal catching options sort out who has which skills, so they need someone. There is little chance that they resign Tek and I think with V-Mart's bat being a bit down he won't get the aggressive offer he might have otherwise.

 

Overall, I think they are going to offer Beltre and Martinez basically what they could be assured they won't get a bad return on their investment and see who takes the offer. I don't think they have a master plan, they just have ways of structuring offers to not get screwed. That has resulted in most FAs leaving in recent memory, and I can see that happening again.

 

First base-

So, you have Youkilis and Beltre at the corner IF positions this season. Well, Beltre is a guy I wouldnt touch with a 10 foot pole on a long term deal and my guess is that he rides his way out of time with Boras pulling at the reigns. And the 3B market is ABSYMAL after this season aside from Beltre. So, the most logical thing to do is move Youk back to 3b. Then, you have a lot to choose from on the 1b side. Here are the list of guys who could actually make sense at the 1b position.

 

An even more conservative "lets not get screwed" option would have Lowrie playing 3B, or moving Scutaro there and moving Lowrie to SS. Lowrie is a competent hitter and could serve as a stop-gap/super utility switch hitter if they didn't want to get screwed.

 

I imagine they are hesitant to move Youkilis off of 3B unless they absolutely have to. It is probably naive of me, but I can see the Sox and Beltre finding a reasonable compromise for 3-4 years. Theo has always liked Beltre and he hasn't disappointed so far; like you, I'm skeptical of Beltre for the long haul but 3B isn't a position that has much coming up via FA. Fenway is a good fit for him and his defense is appropriately valued by this team.

 

 

VMart, Dunn, Konerko, Lee, Pena

 

Those are 5 guys with solid above average to elite bats. But you also dont want to run into a player who is going to have to be moved off the position into a DH role if you give them a long term deal. And with Fenway being a righty hitters dream, it might make more sense to go out and get a righty. Also, with AdGon probably not being available until the deadline in 2011 at the earliest, the sox are probably not going to want a 1b that is locked in long term. So, how about a 1 yr deal for a guy like Derrek Lee? He's having a massively bad yr, but was playing on a team that sucked monkey ass this yr in Chicago. If he shows any signs of life in Atlanta, how about putting him at 1b and seeing if he can find his stuff from 2009, where he batted .306 and hit 35 homers. He's very good defensively and should be completely healthy. And if he bombs out, it's a short term deal and allows you to chase Adrian Gonzalez unimpeded.

 

They will definitely keep themselves open for either Gonzalez, Fielder or Pujols (should the stars align and Pujols is looking to go elsewhere). If they didn't go after Dunn two years ago I don't imagine them going after him now. I have no clue why that is, possibly due to his lack of defensive skills or versatility. His OBP/SLG combination makes him seem like an obvious option for DH at least.

 

Left Field

I think the sox are going to make a major move in the OF, since Cameron and Ellsbury obviously havent worked out this season. I do expect the sox to move Ellsbury back to CF and use Cameron in a 4th OFer/intermittent DH role. But the sox need some more thunder out of their LF position, especially with Drew showing some signs of regression. You could go out and get Brad Hawpe and hope that this yr is a fluke? Hell, I'd love for him to be on the Yankees. But I think the sox are gonna have money to burn and going that route isnt as guaranteed as it would be if you went out and signed Jayson Werth. Give him a 4 yr deal a la Jason Bay and watch him club homers onto Landsdowne street on a nightly basis. He would be a beast in Fenway. This then allows redundancy in CF with Cameron and allows the sox to use Cameron/Lowrie/Salty/Iannetta/etc at DH if needed....

 

Werth could be a good addition and he would definitely be well suited to Fenway. I'm worried that his contract could become a regret in the 3rd and 4th years, especially if the farm system is producing good OFs who are stuck at AAA because of longterm deals (a la JD Drew). I think Theo will try to stay as flexable as possible until the next Teixeira situation presents itself.

 

Frankly, if he were going to be aggressive on an OF contract, I see a lot more reason to make it Carl Crawford.

 

Designated Hitter

I am unsure of what to do about Ortiz. The 1 yr deal is absolutely enticing, and there is no buyout, so it is truly a $12.5 million option. But what would his worth be? Maybe $8 million? So, is it worth risking $4.5 million by just picking it up, or do you risk losing him over that same $4.5 million if another team came swooping in and signed him to a 2 yr deal? One thing I would absolutely not do is sign him to anything more than a 1 yr guaranteed deal. I'd add club options on, but no player or vesting options. He's a ticking time bomb and flexibility is important. I think I would just take the option, pay him the $12.5 million and at least fill the hole for 1 more yr until guys like Salty and Iannetta settle in or until the sox see what their 1b situation looks like.

 

Couldn't have said it better.

 

 

So, the lineup that I put together goes something like this

 

C- Iannetta/Saltalamacchia

1B- Lee

2B- Pedroia

SS- Scutaro/Lowrie

3B- Youkilis

LF- Werth

CF- Ellsbury/Cameron

RF- Drew

DH- Ortiz

 

That might do the trick while also keeping two major offensive positions (1b/DH) very flexibile

[Will617]

If VMart takes less money, he can return if he projects long-term as a 1B/DH. He wants to come back, but it remains to be seen how much money he gets.

I'd like to see Beltre come back, and I think his chances of returning are better than a lot of people think it is, but it's probably lower than 50/50. Youkilis hasn't said he won't play 3B, he just said he doesn't want to move around 50 times in a season, which is a reasonable request. I think a one-year deal for a 1B is the right and most likely decision here, though I don't like Lee or any of the lefties except Dunn (who will get multiple years). I like Dojji's idea of getting Napoli better than getting Lee. The key at the corners is to keep the commitments short, because 2011 is going to be a monster free agency.

I don't think Lowrie or Scutaro have the arm to play 3B.

If someone gets signed in the offseason for OF (which I don't think will happen), it's more likely to be Werth than Crawford IMO, since Crawford is too similar of a player to Ellsbury. The only way that would change is if Ellsbury gets dealt (for say, Matt Kemp?), and even then I think I'd rather have Kalish taking the reigns than Crawford.

Ortiz is probably going to return. He has a club option I think.

Money needs to get spent on the bullpen somehow.

[Will617]

Another reason Werth is a better option than Crawford - team needs right-handed bats, with Kalish and Ellsbury both being left-handed, and the fact that two of the three big 1B free agents next year (AGon and Fielder) are lefthanded, and I feel like the Red Sox might not be able to get Pujols.

[Palodios]

But you also dont want to run into a player who is going to have to be moved off the position into a DH role if you give them a long term deal.

Well, not necessarily. They just need to make sure that between 1B and DH, only one of the two is long term.

 

I am unsure of what to do about Ortiz. The 1 yr deal is absolutely enticing' date=' and there is no buyout, so it is truly a $12.5 million option. But what would his worth be?[/quote']

 

I think at this point, Ortiz and the Red Sox will likely talk before club options/arbitration happens.

 

I'm worried that his contract could become a regret in the 3rd and 4th years, especially if the farm system is producing good OFs who are stuck at AAA because of longterm deals (a la JD Drew).

 

I don't see that being a big problem. Drew/Cameron will be gone in 2012, and Ellsbury will be gone in 2014-- if not sooner. Nava and Kalish were brought up a little bit too early because of the lack of outfield depth. There's nothing wrong with having AAA players who kick ass, they are by far the most valuable trade chips you can have, they provide organizational depth, and don't cost anything. I don't see either Nava or Reddick outperforming Werth any time soon, and if they do, that's more of a blessing for this team than a problem.

[soxfan74]

Just going to throw a line-up out there with the thought process being you can go a little younger, and still have some quality players. Don't need to spend a ton to put a quality lineup out there.

 

Starters

 

1st- Youkilus RH

2nd -Pedroia RH

3rd - Betemit S

SS - Scutaro RH

C - Buck RH

LF - Kalish LH

CF - Ellsbury LH

RF - Drew LH

DH - Ortiz LH

 

 

Reserves

 

C - Saltalamachia S

IF - Lowrie S

OF -Cameron RH

UT - Hall RH

[a700hitter]

Just going to throw a line-up out there with the thought process being you can go a little younger, and still have some quality players. Don't need to spend a ton to put a quality lineup out there.

 

Starters

 

1st- Youkilus RH

2nd -Pedroia RH

3rd - Betemit S

SS - Scutaro RH

C - Buck RH

LF - Kalish LH

CF - Ellsbury LH

RF - Drew LH

DH - Ortiz LH

 

 

Reserves

 

C - Saltalamachia S

IF - Lowrie S

OF -Cameron RH

UT - Hall RH

 

I'm not liking Betemit. I'm not liking that a quality stick is not being added in the OF. You may not be spending a lot, but this lineup will not close the gap with the Yanks, especially if the Yanks land Carl Crawford.