The "Unofficial Pre- Hot Stove (2010)" thread.

[Palodios]

I think the Sox economic situation should be analyzed a bit more in-depth:

 

The Sox have 100 and a half million dollars tied up for 2011, with the luxury tax increasing threshold increasing to 178 million.

 

If you over-estimate and assume the Sox will spend $10 million on players reaching arbitration, then that leaves with roughly 67 million to fix the bullpen, keep the FA's, and bring in an OF bat.

 

65.5 million out of the available 67.5.

 

I do like most of your numbers--some a bit more than my own--but I think there are two major oversights that should contribute to the discussion.

 

Arbitration is going to be well over 10 million. Papelbon is due for a 20% raise, so he alone will make around 11 million. Despite what's best for the team-- there is no indication that they will be non-tendering him. I have not found a player with a similar skill set to Ellsbury, but I could see him costing around 5 million. Based on what I've read-- Buchholz is not eligible for super two status, but the FO may consider giving him a contract now. Otherwise, Buch, Lowrie, Doubront, Bowden, Bard and Atchison should total 3ish. So arbitration/ league minimum contracts should cost 19 million.

 

Also--Someone is going to be willing to overbid for atleast one of the big money guys. My initial estimates were very liberal, but that's simply because if the Sox want them, they are going to be the ones overbidding.

 

Selling Cameron for 7.25 million is unrealistic. Selling him at 3-5 million is doable. You sounded skeptical on getting full returns for him, and I think that considering his injuries, age, declining defense, and the fact that the Sox overbid on him, losing some money on him should be expected.

[Dipre]

I do like most of your numbers--some a bit more than my own--but I think there are two major oversights that should contribute to the discussion.

 

Arbitration is going to be well over 10 million. Papelbon is due for a 20% raise, so he alone will make around 11 million. Despite what's best for the team-- there is no indication that they will be non-tendering him. I have not found a player with a similar skill set to Ellsbury, but I could see him costing around 5 million. Based on what I've read-- Buchholz is not eligible for super two status, but the FO may consider giving him a contract now. Otherwise, Buch, Lowrie, Doubront, Bowden, Bard and Atchison should total 3ish. So arbitration/ league minimum contracts should cost 19 million.

 

Also--Someone is going to be willing to overbid for atleast one of the big money guys. My initial estimates were very liberal, but that's simply because if the Sox want them, they are going to be the ones overbidding.

 

Selling Cameron for 7.25 million is unrealistic. Selling him at 3-5 million is doable. You sounded skeptical on getting full returns for him, and I think that considering his injuries, age, declining defense, and the fact that the Sox overbid on him, losing some money on him should be expected.

 

Doubront is not arb elegible, and neither are Bard, Lowrie or Atchison.

 

The arbitration elegible players are Papelbon, Ellsbury, Okajima, and Salty. Ellsbury is not breaking 5 mill after missing almost all of '09, 'Jima is owed a marginal raise, the rest of the guys with the exception of Atchison are not Arb-elegible, and Atchison is probably re-signing for a similar contract.

 

My initial estimates:

 

Papelbon: 3 million raise.

 

Ells: 3 million raise.

 

'Jima: 1 million raise.

 

Salty: 500 K raise.

 

Atchison: Re-signed for one million dollars.

 

Rest of the guys: Contract renewed. That brings us to right about 10 million.

 

My source: Cot's Baseball Contracts 2010-14 Boston Red Sox

 

I think you've over-estimating the cost of your minors, arb contracts, because you only need to account for the increase, not the whole salary.

[Palodios]

I'm surprised you're not familiar with how cots works. They don't factor in the current contracts of arbitration eligible players, or current minimum value contracts. The 100 million there does not include Ellsbury/Okajima/Papelbon/Bard etc. Add them up if you want.

[Dipre]

I'm surprised you're not familiar with how cots works. They don't factor in the current contracts of arbitration eligible players' date=' or current minimum value contracts. The 100 million there does not include Ellsbury/Okajima/Papelbon/Bard etc. Add them up if you want.[/quote']

 

I shot myself in the foot by using a personally-made Excel table.. However, i still don't think the renewal, arbs, and re-signing costs reach 19 mill. Feel free to do the math, 'cause i'm feeling lazy.

[Palodios]

Well, it depends on Ellsbury, but if he costs 3.5 like you say, we're still at 17. With Okajima, that's 20-21.

[Station 13]

Let Ellsbury take it into arbitration, the person will not take his side whatever he submits for doing nothing this season.

[Palodios]

The best comparison I can find is Michael Bourn

 

In 2008, he had a .588 OPS with 41 steals.

In 2009, he had a .738 OPS with 61 steals.

In arbitration the next season he made 2.4 million while playing for the Astros.

 

Average/OPS is .269/.673 for his career.

 

Ellsbury

In 2008, he had a .729 OPS with 50 steals.

In 2009, he had a .770 OPS with 70 steals.

He was injured-- and the Red Sox medical misdiagnosed his injury.

 

Average/OPS

.291/.749 for his career in the toughest division.

 

He definitely deserves more than Bourn. Crawford got a 4/16 contract through arbitration + the year before, and Crawford wasn't hitting quite as well back then. 4 to 5 million seems very likely, and because of the medical complications, were it to go to arbitration, he could definitely use that in his favor.

[Yaz Sideburn]

The best comparison I can find is Michael Bourn

 

In 2008, he had a .588 OPS with 41 steals.

In 2009, he had a .738 OPS with 61 steals.

In arbitration the next season he made 2.4 million while playing for the Astros.

 

Average/OPS is .269/.673 for his career.

 

Ellsbury

In 2008, he had a .729 OPS with 50 steals.

In 2009, he had a .770 OPS with 70 steals.

He was injured-- and the Red Sox medical misdiagnosed his injury.

 

Average/OPS

.291/.749 for his career in the toughest division.

 

He definitely deserves more than Bourn. Crawford got a 4/16 contract through arbitration + the year before, and Crawford wasn't hitting quite as well back then. 4 to 5 million seems very likely, and because of the medical complications, were it to go to arbitration, he could definitely use that in his favor.

 

bourne never went to arbtration so that's probably not the best comparrison

[jacksonianmarch]

Ellsbury has Boras as his agent, so we know he isnt signing a club friendly long term deal. My guess is that he gets $3.5 mil or so in arbitration.

[Palodios]

bourne never went to arbtration so that's probably not the best comparrison

 

Considering the Red Sox don't let players go to arbitration hearings, a one year contract resulting from avoiding arbitration like Bourn's is exactly what he's going to get.

[Yaz Sideburn]

Considering the Red Sox don't let players go to arbitration hearings' date=' a one year contract resulting from avoiding arbitration like Bourn's is exactly what he's going to get.[/quote']

 

i think it was a bit misleading to say that bourne made $2.4 million "in arbitration" if the point you were trying to make is that ellsbury may get a similar 1 year contract outside of arbitration

[Yaz Sideburn]

a couple things of note. both gammons and epstein were on weei yesterday. epstein said he plans on rebuilding the entire bullpen this offseason and gammons said that if the red sox were to pursue an outfielder this offseaosn, they're more likely to go after crawford than werth

[Yaz Sideburn]

Epstein came to the defense of outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury, who played in only 18 games because of fractured ribs.

 

“All in all, it became a lost season for Jacoby,’’ he said. “We certainly missed his contributions along the way. Importantly, I don’t think there’s any residue of this going forward.

 

“I don’t think these injuries are going to affect Jacoby’s career going forward. I expect him to pick up right where he left off when he comes back, and be a dynamic player, and our leadoff hitter and a guy who contributes offensively, defensively, and on the bases. I don’t think there’s any residue whatsoever, or hard feelings.

 

“I think Jacoby’s going to take this year as a learning experience, work out this winter and come back.’’

 

boston globe

[Palodios]

i think it was a bit misleading to say that bourne made $2.4 million "in arbitration" if the point you were trying to make is that ellsbury may get a similar 1 year contract outside of arbitration

 

Everyone should know what I meant. "In Arbitration" is just as likely to mean "in arbitration years" as "in arbitration hearings". Please don't nitpick-- there are usually enough holes in my argument that semantics should be the least of your worries:lol:

[Spudboy]

boston globe

 

A timely post.

[Yaz Sideburn]

Everyone should know what I meant. "In Arbitration" is just as likely to mean "in arbitration years" as "in arbitration hearings". Please don't nitpick-- there are usually enough holes in my argument that semantics should be the least of your worries:lol:

 

i didn't mean to nitpick. i think there's a significant difference between what a player makes "in arbitration" and what a player makes outside of the arbitration process

 

i haven't tried especially hard, but i can't find much of a precedent for what ellsbury would make if he went to arbitration. it would make for a very interesting case if in fact he did go to arb