The "Unofficial Pre- Hot Stove (2010)" thread.

[BSN07]

I think Ortiz has something left in the tank. Not anxious to lose him when all you have to do to keep him is take the option. If Beltran is brought in to replace anyone it's most likely Mike Cameron. At the moment though that's kinda 6 of one' date=' half dozen of the other so I doubt the FO is in on that.[/quote']

You might change your tune if Ortiz shows up to ST and starts bitching about not being respected because he's only back on a one year deal.

 

The Sox picked up Felipe Lopez. Why?? If they offer him arbitration, he might take it.

 

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2010/09/lowell_feeling_2.html

I wanted them to go after him this offseason. He didn't have a great 2010, but I would offer arb and if he excepts you have a very versatile IF who normally hits decent.

[a700hitter]

You might change your tune if Ortiz shows up to ST and starts bitching about not being respected because he's only back on a one year deal.

He wouldn't be the first or the last player to negotiate through the press. Whether and how a player negotiates with the team is irrelevant to me as long as it doesn't affect on field performance. Unlike Manny, who can be a punk, Ortiz has too much character to mail it in. Also, he is smart enough to realize that he would be cutting off his nose to spite his face.

[a700hitter]

He's a type B' date=' interesting. His salary this year is 1 million and at best he will get 200K raise or cut by accepting. (not sure how arbitration works for FA accepting)[/quote']

If he accepts and we can't trade him, what would that mean for Lowrie or Hall? There are very few bench spots.

[Station 13]

If he accepts and we can't trade him' date=' what would that mean for Lowrie or Hall? There are very few bench spots.[/quote']

 

The chances he accepts are remote since he could find more playing time somewhere else. Which was what he wanted. His pay is low enough to find trade partners or they could just cut him like they they did with the Nelson, Schoenweise, Embree, (the try outs) etc.

 

Hall isn't under contract next year.

[a700hitter]

The chances he accepts are remote since he could find more playing time somewhere else. Which was what he wanted. His pay is low enough to find trade partners or they could just cut him like they they did with the Nelson, Schoenweise, Embree, (the try outs) etc.

 

Hall isn't under contract next year.

They offered Tony Graffanino arbitration after 2005 hoping he would turn it down and they would get draft picks. No one wanted Graffanino so he accepted arbitration and took up a roster spot. The Sox couldn't trade him either. It didn't work out. If he accepts arbitration, they will not make an offer to Hall, because there will be no spot for him. I'd rather have Hall, because he can play IF and OF, plus he has some HR pop and he's got good speed on the bases.

[Spudboy]

They offered Tony Graffanino arbitration after 2005 hoping he would turn it down and they would get draft picks. No one wanted Graffanino so he accepted arbitration and took up a roster spot. The Sox couldn't trade him either. It didn't work out. If he accepts arbitration' date=' they will not make an offer to Hall, because there will be no spot for him. I'd rather have Hall, because he can play IF and OF, plus he has some HR pop and he's got good speed on the bases.[/quote']

 

I'd like to see Hall back. But he's likely gone regardless.

[Station 13]

What Hall has shown is he can be a starter and another team probably feels that way. yes I would retain Hall but unlikely he wants a bench role here.

[Yaz Sideburn]

He's a type B' date=' interesting. His salary this year is 1 million and at best he will get 200K raise or cut by accepting. (not sure how arbitration works for FA accepting)[/quote']

 

that pretty much shows how broken the type a, type b free agent system is. we picked him up at the end of the year for nothing, he's not going to play a game for us and we're going to get a draft pick as compensation for the "talent we're losing"

[example1]

I'm interested in how much people would be willing to offer:

 

Victor Martinez

Adrian Beltre

David Ortiz (take option or not? if not, how much?)

 

as well as any others whose contract will be in question (meet Papelbon in arbitration? Re-sign Bill Hall? How about Darnell McDonald?).

[Station 13]

that pretty much shows how broken the type a' date=' type b free agent system is. we picked him up at the end of the year for nothing, he's not going to play a game for us and we're going to get a draft pick as compensation for the "talent we're losing"[/quote']

 

Yeah it's broken. Scooter was a type A. like really?

[Yaz Sideburn]

we're still going with yamaico navarro as our regular shortstop, right? he's been really impressive

[example1]

Time for the Dojji and Yamico dissing to stop. Not adding much to the discussion, IMO.

 

Navarro hasn't done enough one way or another to show what he would be capable of, but longterm I wouldn't be shocked if he had a key role on this team.

[mvp 78]

I'm interested in how much people would be willing to offer:

 

Victor Martinez

Adrian Beltre

David Ortiz (take option or not? if not, how much?)

 

as well as any others whose contract will be in question (meet Papelbon in arbitration? Re-sign Bill Hall? How about Darnell McDonald?).

 

Ortiz 2 @ 15

Vmart 4 @ 50

Beltre 3 @ 38

 

Pap - arbitration

Bye Hall

Darnell - 2 @ 2

[Spudboy]

I'm interested in how much people would be willing to offer:

 

Victor Martinez

Adrian Beltre

David Ortiz (take option or not? if not, how much?)

 

as well as any others whose contract will be in question (meet Papelbon in arbitration? Re-sign Bill Hall? How about Darnell McDonald?).

 

V- Mart 4/52

 

Beltre- let him walk - then offer up to 4/52

 

Ortiz-let him walk - then offer 2/18

[Yaz Sideburn]

V- Mart 4/52

 

Beltre- let him walk - then offer up to 4/52

 

Ortiz-let him walk - then offer 2/18

 

2/18 for ortiz would be the highest i'd go. i'd offer less first and he's probably accept barring another team going after him hard

[example1]

Is there any chance that the Red Sox and Papelbon get into a disagreement this offseason due to his arbitration demands? It seems that he no longer justifies being paid as an elite closer, but that is what he will be asking for.

 

I'd offer him $8.5m and try to sign him to a longer term deal--3 years/24m or so--and if he didn't take it I would save the 10m he would demand thru arbitration and let him go.

 

That money could be the difference between signing Martinez or Beltre or not, and as an internally-developed player Papelbon has been playing the odds that he would make it to FA as an elite closer. At this point it is questionable whether he or Bard are the better closer. He's bound for a letdown upon becoming a FA. I think Martinez is undoubtedly the better player and Beltre is close.

[SCM33]

I think they have to re-sign Paps regardless of how he has been this season. The bullpen is putrid, but letting him only makes them worse.

 

I think priority #1 is VMart. If he walks we have nobody to replace him and there are not any other alternatives to gamble on in the FA market. Sign him and sign him early.

 

#2 is Beltre. I am not sure if a deal can be made for him however since I think his pricetag will be above what the Sox will be willing to pay.

 

With Ortiz, we play the waiting game. Not many teams will be in the market for a DH with zero defensive positional flexibility since the sox approach to the DH position is antiquated (all hit, no glove. Most teams use DH in a rotation to get players rest now). I think he comes back but I am not sure if thats a good thing or not. Hes had a nice run, he has had a nice season, but sometimes you have to move on.

[example1]

I think they have to re-sign Paps regardless of how he has been this season. The bullpen is putrid, but letting him only makes them worse.

 

I think priority #1 is VMart. If he walks we have nobody to replace him and there are not any other alternatives to gamble on in the FA market. Sign him and sign him early.

 

#2 is Beltre. I am not sure if a deal can be made for him however since I think his pricetag will be above what the Sox will be willing to pay.

 

With Ortiz, we play the waiting game. Not many teams will be in the market for a DH with zero defensive positional flexibility since the sox approach to the DH position is antiquated (all hit, no glove. Most teams use DH in a rotation to get players rest now). I think he comes back but I am not sure if thats a good thing or not. Hes had a nice run, he has had a nice season, but sometimes you have to move on.

 

At this point I'm compelled to agree with you--and this is what I thought a few months ago too. V-Mart is the player with the most unique skillset among the three potenial FAs. Beltre is next and Ortiz is last. I would not fault them for offering the 32 year-old Martinez whatever it took to keep him around for 3-4 years. The guy is an excellent MLB hitter and hits from both sides of the plate, while also happening to be able to catch, play 1B and DH from both sides of the plate. This team is much stronger off with Victor Martinez for the next few years. Players like him do not come around often.

 

What would be ideal is if all three were willing to re-sign for reasonable lengths and decent prices. With the injuries this year the FO has got to be thinking that their original plan was pretty solid. If Beltre and Martinez re-signed then we would be looking at an offensive core of: (2011 age)

 

2. Martinez (32)

3. Youkilis (32)

4. Pedroia (27)

5. Beltre (32)

6. Scutaro/Lowrie/Iglesias (35) (27) (21)

7. ??/Kalish (??)/(23)

8. Ellsbury (27)

9. Drew (35)

 

DH: ??

 

With DH open and players like Ortiz, Vlad, Konerko, Dunn, Lee, etc., all available I think the Sox could be in good shape to be very good for the next few years, maintaining their 93-97 win team standard.

 

It is hard to maintain a highly successful franchise during periods of transition from one group of "stars" to another. I will be very impressed if Tampa Bay manages to lose Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena and Rafael Soriano and still reman competitive with a well-run team like the Red Sox. Hopefully that will give the Sox some breathing room to be able to bring up their minor league players with a bit of breathing room over the next few years. For this amount of money, the Red Sox should be a wild-card caliber team almost every year when other teams can only make a run every few years.

[SCM33]

I am glad to see we are in agreement.

 

In reality...a couple re-signings is all we have to do offensively.

 

The overhaul needs to be done in the bullpen. Paps I think will return, good or bad I am not positive about......what I am positive about is that everyone not named Bard or Papelbon needs to go. Time to revamp and start over back there.

 

I would also like them to sign a #3 or #4 starter for short money if available to light a fire under the ass of Beckett, Lackey and DiceK. Make them earn their spot in the rotation next year. Make Beckett feel like he isnt the star he once thought he was.

[example1]

Should the Sox pay more than what Papelbon is worth next season? I'm not sure they should.

 

Again, I would rather they assure themselves of the ability to sign Victor Martinez and maybe save for one of Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez or Albert Pujols after 2011. I would be okay with them saving some money and structuring around that FA period.

[Dipre]

Should the Sox pay more than what Papelbon is worth next season? I'm not sure they should.

 

Again, I would rather they assure themselves of the ability to sign Victor Martinez and maybe save for one of Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez or Albert Pujols after 2011. I would be okay with them saving some money and structuring around that FA period.

 

Please cross Pujols off that list. He's not going anywhere. But goddamns would he look good in a Sox uniform.

[BSN07]

 

I would also like them to sign a #3 or #4 starter for short money if available to light a fire under the ass of Beckett, Lackey and DiceK. Make them earn their spot in the rotation next year. Make Beckett feel like he isnt the star he once thought he was.

I know what your saying and agree. But those players contracts guarantee's them a spot in the rotation. Them bringing in a veteran on a 1 year deal probably won't do much to scare them.

 

If they were to do something like that though, I think Brandon Webb would be a nice candidate.

Please cross Pujols off that list. He's not going anywhere. But goddamns would he look good in a Sox uniform.

Although I agree with you, until he signs an extension it is still a possibility as much as the others. Who knows maybe he won't want to stay if Larussa is not around. Who knows. But until the ink is dry on a new deal there a chance

[Interestedobserver]

Please cross Pujols off that list. He's not going anywhere. But goddamns would he look good in a Sox uniform.

 

He'd look good in anybody's uniform, but he's not leaving St. Louis.

[a700hitter]

If they were to do something like that though, I think Brandon Webb would be a nice candidate.

 

They are not going to improve this team by Dumpster Diving for lame and infirm pitchers. They have big challenges. They need to re-sign Beltre or get another third baseman or move Youk to third and get a big stick at first. They need to add a top quality hitting OFer to play LF. They need to add 3 quality bullpen arms. They should re-sign VMart and Tek and pick up Ortiz's option. Let the s*** teams like the Nationals go dumpster diving. It never works out. How did Chieng Ming Wang do this season?

[jacksonianmarch]

a700, dumpster diving is fine if it is solely for depth. If you had your 1-5 set and you went out and signed Webb to an incentive laden deal, then it gives you flexibility should Webb show that he can actually pitch. If the idea was to sign Webb as a #5 starter and rely on him, then I agree, that is a bad move.

[jacksonianmarch]

Should the Sox pay more than what Papelbon is worth next season? I'm not sure they should.

 

Again, I would rather they assure themselves of the ability to sign Victor Martinez and maybe save for one of Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez or Albert Pujols after 2011. I would be okay with them saving some money and structuring around that FA period.

 

It's a risk, but it won us a championship and has us in the playoffs for the second straight yr. Sometimes best available for that yr is not the best option for the club. Sometimes, the best option is flexibility until a no-brainer comes available.

 

In terms of the sox, signing Beltre is a risk. He has looked like an absolute beast in Boston. He probably has the highest WAR in the AL East when you combine his ridiculous defense (which nearly kept you in the game last night) to his resurgent offense. But do you give him a 4 yr $60 mil deal or a 5 yr $75 mil deal. If the answer is no, then he's gone. And if he is gone, are you better off with a stopgap like Lowrie or are you better off getting Youkilis reacquainted with 3b for the 2011 season until the 1b of the future comes available that offseason? If you are better off with Youkilis reaquainting himself at 3b, then do you promote Lars Anderson? Do you go to Lowrie just to see what he can do over a full season while waiting for a Fielder or AdGon to come available? Might not be the worst idea to raise Lowrie's stock.

[jacksonianmarch]

 

What would be ideal is if all three were willing to re-sign for reasonable lengths and decent prices. With the injuries this year the FO has got to be thinking that their original plan was pretty solid. If Beltre and Martinez re-signed then we would be looking at an offensive core of: (2011 age)

 

I take umbrage with this thinking though. Sox fans seem to act like the sox are a small market club. You have essentially 1.5 times the salary of the Pirates coming off the books and had a team that most sox fans think could have competed for a playoff spot if they stayed healthy. Why, then, is it a requirement that these players take hometown discounts when the sox coffers are overflowing? If Theo and the brass thought that this team could have competed for a playoff spot with them as is, then he should resign that team regardless of cost.

[a700hitter]

a700' date=' dumpster diving is fine if it is solely for depth. If you had your 1-5 set and you went out and signed Webb to an incentive laden deal, then it gives you flexibility should Webb show that he can actually pitch. If the idea was to sign Webb as a #5 starter and rely on him, then I agree, that is a bad move.[/quote']A guy like Webb signs with a team for 1 fo 2 reasons-- a. He'd be given a chance to win a rotation spot, or b. he looks to collect a paycheck while working himself back into playing shape. The Sox can't promise a. and I'm not interested in anyone coming to Fenway for reason b. I hope the FO steers clear of dumpsters this off season.

[a700hitter]

I take umbrage with this thinking though. Sox fans seem to act like the sox are a small market club. You have essentially 1.5 times the salary of the Pirates coming off the books and had a team that most sox fans think could have competed for a playoff spot if they stayed healthy. Why' date=' then, is it a requirement that these players take hometown discounts when the sox coffers are overflowing? If Theo and the brass thought that this team could have competed for a playoff spot with them as is, then he should resign that team regardless of cost.[/quote']We have the highest ticket prices in baseball, but of course, that doesn't matter to people who don't buy tickets and who are happy to appaud the FO for keeping as much of the profits as they can while putting out a team that is just good enough to compete and fill the seats. The Sox have many other streams of income, and some people tell me that Dice K's deal is paying dividends in japan. I don't believe the part about Japan, but the Red Sox are in there with the big boys as far as finances.

 

This season their plan failed, and we didn't compete when healthy or injured. The fans can blame injuries all they want, but we were a third place team out of the gate, and that is where we stayed. I think the FO is smart enough that it will not risk the same fate again. I don't think that they'll be thinking "we can use Papelbon's money to sign VMart." I think that they'll be thinking that they need VMart and they need to improve the bullpen and letting Paps walk would probably present a huge challenge to improving the bullpen. I think they are smart enough to know that they need to make bold moves to get back to the top.

[jacksonianmarch]

Bold moves are definitely needed. I think there will be plenty of bold moves made 200 miles southwest as well, which means that the sox might need 2 bold moves to overtake them