The "Unofficial Pre- Hot Stove (2010)" thread.

[mvp 78]

By your reasoning, I could consider Bowden to be a "viable option" for 4th or 5th starter and Coello could be an"option" as a set up man.

[Dojji]

Not really. A couple years ago, Bowden was a viable option, because there was no reason to doubt him. That has changed as he's actually lost "stuff" in the last couple years. Every prospect evaluation is subject to change. But until there's a reason to doubt a guy, there's nothing wrong with putting him on the list of people you may be able to call upon if needed.

[Palodios]

Yeah and Dustin Pedroia looked really great in his first handful of PA's too. Whether it's good' date=' whether it's very not, what Navarro is doing at the big league level at the plate at the moment has almost NO bearing at ALL on what he can become. [/quote']

 

Except that Pedroia had hit .300 in a full year in AAA and completely proved himself. We have no clue what Navarro is capable long term in AAA because he only played a dozen or so games there. You're also completely blinded by his potential, and don't seem to realize that his stats NOW have bearing on the player he is NOW. Sure, he may hit like his AA stats indicate, but the fact that you need to use AA stats to show any large sample size of his hitting is a bad sign.

 

Young players need time to develop and adjust to higher levels of play. Kalish/Nava/Navarro/Reddick all played between 15 and 40 games before being promoted to Boston the first time, and quite frankly, none of them have performed to league averages yet because early promotions messed with their development. Good major league teams know better than to give on-the-job training to guys who clearly need more time in the minors.

[Dojji]

No, because we don't have nearly enough stats on hand to make a judgment call on what kind of player he is now at the big league level. You're talking about 30 PA as if that means something.

 

It's entirely possible that the truth is the exact opposite of what you say -- that a brief introduction to big league pitching is required for a prospect to discover what he can and can't get away with, then he goes to the minors and refines his approach for the higher level rather than focusing on putting up big numbers. Especially for a franchise that makes it very publicly known that they are not wowed by minor league numbers alone nearly as much as by meeting their developmental benchmarks, whatever they are exactly.

 

This isn't Baseball Mogul. More time spent facing minor league and AAAA pitching only helps a prospect so much. They've got to see the real thing.

[mvp 78]

Bowden has proven that he can handle AAA. Navarro has not. Bowden is more ready to be in Boston than Navarro.

We're not talking about 2013-14, we're talking 2011. He's just not a viable option right now.

[mvp 78]

No' date=' because we don't have nearly enough stats on hand to make a judgment call on what kind of player he is now at the big league level. You're talking about 30 PA as if that means something.[/quote']

 

Which is exactly why we can't consider him a viable option right now. He hasn't even had significant PA's in Pawtucket.

 

For the Pirates he'd be a viable option, because wins don't matter to them.

[BSN07]

I have read a few columns rumbling about the Mets cleaning house. New GM and Manager and possibly blowing up the roster.

 

David Wright and/or Jose Reyes could be the answer to a lot of issues for this team. Both would command a decent return. But if they really are made available, the Sox have to in on them right?

 

Maybe take on Beltran's last year to lower the cost in prospects?

 

Kelly+Doubront+Reddick+IF prospect for Wright?

[jacksonianmarch]

Wright is the face of their franchise. I highly doubt he gets moved

[a700hitter]

I have read a few columns rumbling about the Mets cleaning house. New GM and Manager and possibly blowing up the roster.

 

David Wright and/or Jose Reyes could be the answer to a lot of issues for this team. Both would command a decent return. But if they really are made available, the Sox have to in on them right?

 

Maybe take on Beltran's last year to lower the cost in prospects?

 

Kelly+Doubront+Reddick+IF prospect for Wright?

David Wright is a mystery to me and to the knowledgeable Met fans. Somehow he is able to put up enormous numbers while managing to be one of the stupidest star ballplayers that I have ever watched. My Met fan friends call him Gomer. He always seems to make the wrong play at the wrong time. If there is the opposite of clutch, it is him. A productive out is a foreign concept to him. After watching the opposing pitcher walk the bases loaded, he will swing at the first pitch and then k on a pitch in the dirt. In the field, he plays every ball off to the side like it is a charging bull. It is laughable that he won a gold glove. He can make the spectacular play, but he can turn the routine play into a fiasco. I have told my Met fan friends that the Mets would be smart to move him this off season. He has built a young career of great numbers, which should ensure a healthy return in a trade. Opposing teams see his stats, but unless you see this guy on a daily basis, you only know half the story.

 

With regard to Reyes, I know that he has a bad rep for various reasons, but he is not the air-head that Wright is. Reyes problem is staying healthy. I'd rather have Reyes than Wright, and the price would probably be cheaper for Reyes than Wright.

[jacksonianmarch]

By your reasoning' date=' I could consider Bowden to be a "viable option" for 4th or 5th starter and Coello could be an"option" as a set up man.[/quote']

 

Dont forget Bill Lee as an option to close should the entire sox pen get ebola

[a700hitter]

Dont forget Bill Lee as an option to close should the entire sox pen get ebola

At least he throws strikes.

[Dojji]

Maybe I should just exaggerate everyone's point ridiculously out of context too, I'd win a lot of arguments around here. I haven't seen so many straw men since that scarecrow convention.

[jacksonianmarch]

Your point was stupid and you have been called on it. Eat your crow

[mvp 78]

Maybe I should just exaggerate everyone's point ridiculously out of context too' date=' I'd win a lot of arguments around here. I haven't seen so many straw men since that scarecrow convention.[/quote']

 

Your original point was ridiculous and your ongoing support of your previous statements even more so.

 

You said that we think he sucks. No one said that. We just think he's not ready yet.

 

You've looked into your crystal ball and seem to think Navarro can put up average stats. At this very moment, that thinking is completely ridiculous.

[BSN07]

Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe hears from a pair of Mets officials that the team may make a run at Jacoby Ellsbury this winter.

[a700hitter]

I never believe any report that comes from the Mets camp. That organization is a mess, and they leak more stories and rumors that are never followed through. Add to that the fact that it is a slow season for writers covering the Sox because our games have been meaningless since Youk went down. I take this story with a grain of salt. Also, the story floating around NY is that Angel Pagan will play CF because of Beltran's reduced mobility.

[Yaz Sideburn]

 

maybe we could trade them cameron and they won't know the difference. it is the mets...

[Interestedobserver]

I have read a few columns rumbling about the Mets cleaning house. New GM and Manager and possibly blowing up the roster.

 

David Wright and/or Jose Reyes could be the answer to a lot of issues for this team. Both would command a decent return. But if they really are made available, the Sox have to in on them right?

 

Maybe take on Beltran's last year to lower the cost in prospects?

 

Kelly+Doubront+Reddick+IF prospect for Wright?

 

 

 

Although I doubt the Mets would trade either Reyes or Wright, why would they possibly even consider that package? To get another team's star talent requires putting up real talent in return, not some poo poo platter of second tier prospects.

 

As for Beltran, he's probably going to have a decent year next year and is playing for a contract, although he may benefit from playing a corner outfield position and dhing part time. He's probably available for an Ellsbury type with the Mets picking up half the contract.

[jacksonianmarch]

Welcome to the board IO. I agree, getting Wright or Reyes would cost the sox something of MLB caliber, probably Ellsbury plus Kelly

[Interestedobserver]

Thank you. I doubt they'd even consider trading him. Reyes and Wright are the only thing worth watching about that team.

[example1]

Although I doubt the Mets would trade either Reyes or Wright, why would they possibly even consider that package? To get another team's star talent requires putting up real talent in return, not some poo poo platter of second tier prospects.

 

As for Beltran, he's probably going to have a decent year next year and is playing for a contract, although he may benefit from playing a corner outfield position and dhing part time. He's probably available for an Ellsbury type with the Mets picking up half the contract.

 

Ha ha, second tier prospects. Who would want an MLB ready lefty starter, a highly touted potential top of rotation starter, and an OF who could hit 20+ HRs? Not the Mets, of course, they're too good for that.

 

That's a good package. You might be right that it isn't enough for Wright, but to say its a poopoo platter of second tier prospects is overstating it. A package of Luis Exposito, Michael Bowden and Pete Hissey would be a poo poo platter of second tier prospects.

 

Welcome to the site though!

[Yaz Sideburn]

Welcome to the board IO. I agree' date=' getting Wright or Reyes would cost the sox something of MLB caliber, probably Ellsbury plus Kelly[/quote']

 

yeah, that's probably more realistic. if i was the mets gm i wouldn't take kelly, doubront, reddick and filller. i'd rather have quality than quantity

[example1]

yeah' date=' that's probably more realistic. if i was the mets gm i wouldn't take kelly, doubront, reddick and filller. i'd rather have quality than quantity[/quote']

 

I really think the Red Sox don't want to move Kelly about as bad as they didn't want to move Papelbon, Lester and Buchholz before him. At 20, Kelly is the age Buchholz was when drafted and Kelly just finished his first 95 IP at AA Portland. Lester didn't get to AA until he was 21, his break out year in Portland.

 

I'm not convinced that Kelly has Lester's stuff as I haven't seen him pitch enough. What I do feel pretty confident about is that he should end up sitting 92-94 with a strong frame and good mechanics. He's been scouted to have superior natural command, which he supposedly lost a bit this year as he threw harder but which was very good for his age. The Sox are clearly high on him as a natural athlete who stands a good chance of getting that command back.

 

This will inevitably lead to a discussion about the value of prospects who are unknown and still a few years away. So far, their conservative approach with top pitching prospects has paid off with a quality team year after year. Anthony Ranaudo is a month older than Kelly and they might both end up being valuable replacements for Dice-K and filling in for any injuries from 2012-2014. Chances are he would be the best or second-best pitching prospect on most teams in baseball. That's not something you casually throw away with Doubront, and Reddick and someone else.

[Interestedobserver]

I think a package for Wright starts with Lester. No way do the Mets trade away the face of their franchise for minor leaguers. No team would do that. Seaver still haunts them and he was 33.

[jacksonianmarch]

I think a package for Wright starts with Lester. No way do the Mets trade away the face of their franchise for minor leaguers. No team would do that. Seaver still haunts them and he was 33.

 

Lester is worth more than Wright, so that's a bit off

[a700hitter]

So far' date=' their conservative approach with top pitching prospects has paid off with a quality team year after year. [/quote']With the departure of Johnny Damon after the 2005 season, essentially all that was left of the prior (Duquette) regime was Manny and Tek. All the rest- Pedro, DLowe, Nomar, and Trot were gone. How well have they done on their own watch? Since 2005, they have made the playoffs in three years out of 5 years, won one championship and a division title in 2007, but they finished in 3rd twice. Is that a great record? It's not a bad record, but is it commensurate with the enormous payroll the Red Sox have had in those years? I don't think so.

[Dojji]

I think you're underestimating how hard it is to win the World Series. We won it twice in a 4 year stretch so we sort of got the impression that it was going to happen some more, but it's really difficult to win that Series no matter how much you spend. The kind of injuries we ran into are just one of the many things that can go wrong and leave you short of your goal.

 

Most teams, even teams that spend nearly as much as us, would be quite happy making the plaoyffs 6 of the last 8 years and coming down with a couple trinkets on top of that.

[Interestedobserver]

Any team that wins a championship has some serious luck on their side. And almost all are far healthier than the norm, which is part of the luck. That's one of many reasons why it's so hard to repeat.

[a700hitter]

I think you're underestimating how hard it is to win the World Series. We won it twice in a 4 year stretch so we sort of got the impression that it was going to happen some more, but it's really difficult to win that Series no matter how much you spend. The kind of injuries we ran into are just one of the many things that can go wrong and leave you short of your goal.

 

Most teams, even teams that spend nearly as much as us, would be quite happy making the plaoyffs 6 of the last 8 years and coming down with a couple trinkets on top of that.

2004 had a lot of carryover personnel from the Duquette years. After 2005, there was minimal carryover. No one else can can claim credit for 2006-2010, and I don't think the track record is that great. A big market team-- the Yankees have beat us 3 of those 5 years and they have won 1 championship (2 if they win in 2010). Before we anyone uses the "we can't compete with Yankee money" excuses, let's remember that a small market team --Tampa-- has also eaten our lunch twice in the last 5 years.

[CoachC.]

I am going to put myself into Theo's shoes for a second...

 

Catcher

So, what are you gonna do at the catcher position. You have Salty, and you have a player in VMart who wants to come back pretty heavily. But it is pretty obvious that VMart's days of catching are coming to a close. Which is why I wouldnt consider VMart a C at all. But Salty is far from a guy who you hand the position to outright, since Salty might end up going the way of VMart and moving off the position due to his defensive deficiencies.

 

So I would follow the big rumors that have flowed through this site recently and I would go out and get Chris Iannetta. He is going to cost a pretty penny. But he's a local kid with power in his bat, a good plate approach and a much better catcher than either VMart or Salty. He would probably cost you Doubront + a few other close to MLB ready guys, but he would be worth it in Fenway especially.

 

First base-

So, you have Youkilis and Beltre at the corner IF positions this season. Well, Beltre is a guy I wouldnt touch with a 10 foot pole on a long term deal and my guess is that he rides his way out of time with Boras pulling at the reigns. And the 3B market is ABSYMAL after this season aside from Beltre. So, the most logical thing to do is move Youk back to 3b. Then, you have a lot to choose from on the 1b side. Here are the list of guys who could actually make sense at the 1b position

 

VMart, Dunn, Konerko, Lee, Pena

 

Those are 5 guys with solid above average to elite bats. But you also dont want to run into a player who is going to have to be moved off the position into a DH role if you give them a long term deal. And with Fenway being a righty hitters dream, it might make more sense to go out and get a righty. Also, with AdGon probably not being available until the deadline in 2011 at the earliest, the sox are probably not going to want a 1b that is locked in long term. So, how about a 1 yr deal for a guy like Derrek Lee? He's having a massively bad yr, but was playing on a team that sucked monkey ass this yr in Chicago. If he shows any signs of life in Atlanta, how about putting him at 1b and seeing if he can find his stuff from 2009, where he batted .306 and hit 35 homers. He's very good defensively and should be completely healthy. And if he bombs out, it's a short term deal and allows you to chase Adrian Gonzalez unimpeded.

 

Left Field

I think the sox are going to make a major move in the OF, since Cameron and Ellsbury obviously havent worked out this season. I do expect the sox to move Ellsbury back to CF and use Cameron in a 4th OFer/intermittent DH role. But the sox need some more thunder out of their LF position, especially with Drew showing some signs of regression. You could go out and get Brad Hawpe and hope that this yr is a fluke? Hell, I'd love for him to be on the Yankees. But I think the sox are gonna have money to burn and going that route isnt as guaranteed as it would be if you went out and signed Jayson Werth. Give him a 4 yr deal a la Jason Bay and watch him club homers onto Landsdowne street on a nightly basis. He would be a beast in Fenway. This then allows redundancy in CF with Cameron and allows the sox to use Cameron/Lowrie/Salty/Iannetta/etc at DH if needed....

 

Designated Hitter

I am unsure of what to do about Ortiz. The 1 yr deal is absolutely enticing, and there is no buyout, so it is truly a $12.5 million option. But what would his worth be? Maybe $8 million? So, is it worth risking $4.5 million by just picking it up, or do you risk losing him over that same $4.5 million if another team came swooping in and signed him to a 2 yr deal? One thing I would absolutely not do is sign him to anything more than a 1 yr guaranteed deal. I'd add club options on, but no player or vesting options. He's a ticking time bomb and flexibility is important. I think I would just take the option, pay him the $12.5 million and at least fill the hole for 1 more yr until guys like Salty and Iannetta settle in or until the sox see what their 1b situation looks like.

 

So, the lineup that I put together goes something like this

 

C- Iannetta/Saltalamacchia

1B- Lee

2B- Pedroia

SS- Scutaro/Lowrie

3B- Youkilis

LF- Werth

CF- Ellsbury/Cameron

RF- Drew

DH- Ortiz

 

That might do the trick while also keeping two major offensive positions (1b/DH) very flexibile

 

Can the Red Sox really afford to add BOTH Werth and Lee without losing payroll somewhere?