The "Unofficial Pre- Hot Stove (2010)" thread.

[Spudboy]

I've noticed that many people have ideas about what may or may not happen this off season.

 

I have my wish list. Although, it's not well thought out!

 

I'd like to see Carl Crawford here. And Kurt Suzuki.

 

Please note that I said "wish". Crawford is available. Suzuki may not be.

 

I have a question. Why is it that the Yankees snagging Crawford and Lee is a forgone conclusion?

 

Feel free to discuss any and all transactions and moves that may happen between now and spring training.

[a700hitter]

It is so sad that we have been reduced to this on August 15th. Sigh.

[Dojji]

Rather promote Kalish than rely on signing Crawford. Half the league is going to be gunning for the guy and most of them are likely to be more desperate than we are. I suspect he's a Mariner next year. Seattle's GOT to make a splash this offseason and Crawford's a great fit for what that team is trying to be.

 

This team absolutely needs two things next year: Relief help and a corner infielder. That's where the money and trade pieces need to go. I really don't like the FA targets at first base very much -- Lee is interesting but Pena rubs me wrong and Dunn is a DH and beyond that the options are not great. We may wind up accepting a substandard solution there unless we are prepared to make a real material sacrifice.

 

What I want at corner infield is a guy we commit to for 2-3 years, after which time we review our options and see what Rizzo and Anderson have been up to in the meantime. That doesn't mean I'll get it, but the guy I want will be someone who gives us that option. Right now I think that might mean a short-term commitment to Lee, especially if Cameron starts the year on the DL or goes there for some reason and we wind up with 3 lefthanded outfielders. If he sucks, we have options, both Rizzo and Anderson have a chance to be ready by midseason if all goes well

 

The reason I like the idea of giving up a prospect for Mike Napoli is that he's one of the few under-30 first base types who you actually know might be available. A lot of the guys better than him are much less expendable, even Gonzalez might not be on the block if the Padres think they can take another run at a pennant before they lose him. Sure, Napoli's not twisting in the wind -- he Angels could crowd him in at DH I suppose, but they have players they like that duplicate is skills so they ought to be able to see their way to making a reasonable deal

 

As for why Napoli from a Sox perspective, I think that Napoli's got plus righthanded power that our wall would help. The wall isn't going to help a HR hitter, but it will boost doubles and BA from the right side. A few more of the fly balls that he hits when he does make contact smacking against the Monster would raise his BA somewhere around .020 or so, a critical jump for a career.256 hitter. And there is a chance that the Boston offensive philosophy might mesh with Napoli's natural style and he does a Papi. Not banking on it of course, you'd be a fool if you did, but the chance is definitely there. Scioscia likes aggressive guys who make contact and move the baserunner, which is just about the opposite of Mike "Strikeout" Napoli. Boston is much better prepared to handle a Three True Outcomes guy -- so in that sense Napoli is a better fit here than he ever was in LAA, and maybe a different look that plays into his style more will allow him to "click."

 

So Napoli isn't the sexy pick, but in my honest opinion he's the clever pick -- if we picked him up and he played 1B for us for a full season I think we'd all be pleasantly surprised and what he came up with offensively. And if not, you're not out that much and are a year or so closer to Rizzo, so the stakes aren't huge.

[example1]

Rather promote Kalish than rely on signing Crawford. Half the league is going to be gunning for the guy and most of them are likely to be more desperate than we are. I suspect he's a Mariner next year. Seattle's GOT to make a splash this offseason and Crawford's a great fit for what that team is trying to be.

 

At the very least the Sox need to be in there making a fair market offer for him. they have to ensure he doesn't go back to TB and doesn't go to NY unless they pay a ton for him. I could think of less favorable uses for $18m.

 

He's one of the best players in the league and he's available. His skillset is totally different than Teixeira or Holliday, but he's valuable in so many ways that he's a dangerous, dangerous player. I don't expect them to treat him like Teixeira, but they should show him more $$ than they did JD Drew.

 

I like both Kalish and Nava, but it wouldn't hurt to have Carl Crawford out there too.

[Keeper]

Crawford would help this team soooo much more than Napoli. You get Crawford and you deal Ellsbury to the Padres for Mike Adams/Luke Gregerson/Heath Bell and some low level prospects.

 

You get Napoli, move Youk to third, keep V-Mart behind the plate, and the defense takes a big hit at the corners. And like I said before, Napoli's production would be average to possibly below average if he's at first.

[Will617]

Ellsbury is the same type of player as Crawford, and almost as good when healthy, and under club control for 3 years. I don't know why we need Crawford so badly.

I'd like Cliff Lee to come to the Sox, but it isn't happening. This free agent class doesn't seem that great for the Sox. The year after (when Fielder, AGon, and Pujols are all free agents) is the one to wait for.

[bsox0407]

And Curt Suzuki.

 

If you are talking about Kurt Suzuki of the A's as in Catcher he just signed a multi-year extension with the A's so i doubt he will be moving Although i would have liked to see him in a Sox Uni.

[Keeper]

Ellsbury is the same type of player as Crawford, and almost as good when healthy, and under club control for 3 years. I don't know why we need Crawford so badly.

I'd like Cliff Lee to come to the Sox, but it isn't happening. This free agent class doesn't seem that great for the Sox. The year after (when Fielder, AGon, and Pujols are all free agents) is the one to wait for.

 

Crawford is better than Ellsbury, and unless you want to see him in pinstripes, the Sox should go after him and send Ellsbury packing to San Diego for relievers. It's a great opportunity to upgrade the outfield and the bullpen.

 

I'd also like to see Lee on the Sox. Could have and should have got him last year at the deadline instead of V-Mart.

[Spudboy]

If you are talking about Kurt Suzuki of the A's as in Catcher he just signed a multi-year extension with the A's so i doubt he will be moving Although i would have liked to see him in a Sox Uni.

 

f***. I didn't know that.

[BSN07]

I'm sure my mind will change at some point. But for right now my "off season plan" in no particular order is something like this.

 

Sign Crawford.

Trade Ellsbury(+) for Matt Kemp

Bring Papi back for 1 possibly 2 years at a discounted rate. If that doesn't work out go after Dunn.

Trade Papelbon. Install Bard as Closer(although I won't mind if Papelbon is back for one more year)

Trade for Leo Nunez

Bring back Martinez as C/1B/DH.

Re-sign Bill Hall

Let Beltre walk

Float Dice-K's name quietly

 

2011 Red Sox

 

CF/LF Crawford

2B Pedroia

1B V-Mart

3B Youkilis

DH Papi/Dunn

LF/CF Kemp

RF Drew

C Salty

SS Scutaro

 

 

Not saying it all will easily happen. Just my spin on how to possibly attack this off season.

[Dojji]

Crawford would help this team soooo much more than Napoli. You get Crawford and you deal Ellsbury to the Padres for Mike Adams/Luke Gregerson/Heath Bell and some low level prospects.

 

You get Napoli, move Youk to third, keep V-Mart behind the plate, and the defense takes a big hit at the corners. And like I said before, Napoli's production would be average to possibly below average if he's at first.

 

Crawford and Napoli are hardly mutually exclusive, so the question of which one improves the team more is not relevant.

 

As for defense at the corners, yes it does take a hit, but not as huge as all that, and the "hit" is going to happen anyway -- I can't think of a 3B who's worth spit on the FA market other than Beltre, and I don't think he's going to want to stick around. Youkilis is an effective 3B and Napoli has looked decent in his sample at 1B this year. Neither of them are gold glove caliber, but we're not going to be able to keep Beltre around regardless and power-hitting veteran third baseman are simply not to be had, so Youks is going to third base this offseason no matter what anyway

 

And I really disagree about the production thing. Not only would the wall boost his numbers, but even if it didn't, if you extrapolate Napoli's numbers out to 450-500 at bats he's got a lot of seasons where he was on pace for 25-30 or more homers. If the Monster can help him get his batting average back into the .270 range this guy could be really effective offensively. And all we really need him to be is about a 6-hitter anyway, so it's not like being a member of the pack offensively at first base (and permitting Youk to be WAY ahead of the pack at third) wouldn't be exactly what we needed.

[Palodios]

They need to look at Konkero/Dunn/Ortiz/Guerrero/Huff etc for short term solutions. I'd love to see them fill DH and 1B for two quality 1/10 type deals, maybe cheaper. A two year obligation at DH (Or a 1B who would transition to DH) wouldn't be horrible either, but it is definitely in this team's best interest to find guys who don't mind knowing that they may be succeeded by Agon/Fielder/Pujols/Rizzo in 2012/2013.

 

Besides Drew and Bard, the entire outfield/bullpen has drastically underperformed, and their WAR values show that pretty cleanly. They can't just expect mediocre players to serve significant roles in 2011, they just can't.

 

But my number one priority is to find a new pitching coach. John Farrell needs to go. The pitching staff has been in ruins over the last two years, and he can't fix bad pitching mechanics to save his life. Maybe if he helped Papelbon develop a second pitch, he wouldn't be underperforming this badly. He also goes something completely against the philosophy of this team's coaching staff, and will openly criticize players to the media. He does not deserve a free ride because Schilling and Beckett won a world series.

[BSN07]

I think Farrell will be managing somewhere next season.

[a700hitter]

I posted this in a game thread, but it is more appropriate here:

 

This team needs a catcher, who can play defense and hit. They need to part ways with Beltre and move Youk permanently to third base. VMart should be the primary first baseman, but he should go behind the plate to spell the starter for 30-35 games. If Lowrie ever gets his strength back, he can handle all of the IF backup work.

 

They need to bolster the OF. Drew has been the iron man in the OF this year. I never thought I'd say that. Ellsbury's trade value is in the toilet, so he will have to stay as the starting CFer and redeem himself. Cameron has another year on his contract and he will have no trade value. He should strictly be the 4th OFer- not a starter. We need a LFer? McDonald, Nava, and Patterson are not a consideration. If they want Kalish on the team, he could platoon with Cameron, but I am not crazy about that. I'd prefer they get a full time LFer and let Kalish start the season in AAA ready to come to Boston when Ellsbury starts his spa treatments, or when Cameron tears up his other testicle or his arthritis acts up. Crawford would be really nice. That would give us a ton of speed. It would be really hard to drop a hit in between those guys. If Ellsbury makes a comeback, he could be traded after 2011, and Kalish could take his spot.

 

The starting rotation is set. If Beckett starts out bad like this year, they should send him flying with a Yankee pilot.

 

Finally, the bullpen. A lot of work and creativity is needed here. First, I'll address the low hanging fruit. Wakefield needs to be put out to pasture. Screw the quest to pass Clemens and Cy Young in wins or whatever else. Let's be frank. He is not in their class- not even close, so he doesn't deserve the record. He's had a really nice career for a guy with a trick pitch and not much else. Keep Papelbon and Bard together for another year at the end of the bullpen. That has been the one strength of our pen. Get a real lefty reliever. Oki can go back to Japan. Get a lefty who is capable of pitching the 7th, 8th or 9th innings. Dubront can compete for the second lefty spot. There will be additional renovating to do with the pen which is probably every GM's biggest challenge.

 

In a nutshell:

 

Get a catcher

Move VMart to first

Move Youk to third

Get Carl Crawford

Get a top lefty for the pen

 

 

I think this is all very achievable, and it would improve the team.

[Youk Of The Nation]

I want to see CJ Wilson in a Sox uniform just so I don't have to see him beat them all the goddamned time.

[soxfan74]

I agree with the above post that states we need a defensive catcher. I would like to see Saltalamachia get a shot at the starting catcher slot. Bring back Varitek for a year as a backup and mentor.

 

After just a year and a half. Way over the Victor Martinez hype. He has a better than average bat for a catcher. His defense at both catcher and first base absolutely sucks. Let him walk. He is not worth the money.

 

Would love to bring Beltre back. Beltre at third and Youkilus at first is a much better defensive tandem than Youk at third and Martinez at first. There will be alott of competition to sign him this offseason, and we may just sign a Scutaro type player for a couple years till Middlebrooks or Vitek is ready.

 

The outfield. While I absolutely think Carl Crawford is a great player. We have plenty of outfielders. Kalish in my opinion is the answer in left field. Reddick or Nava could very well take over for Drew after this season. Ellsbury is not going anywhere. He is the centerfielder next season.

 

Starting pitching is set. Buchholtz and Lester are the top two now. Lackey needs a bounce back season. Dice -K is well Dice-K. The contract extension with Beckett this season was probably a mistake. But despite his problems. He is still better than alott of pitchers in this league.

 

The Bullpen needs a complete overhaul minus Bard. Doubrant Looks like he could be a solid lefty reliever. Okajima is done. Send Delcarmen packing. Atchinson while he tries hard doesn't have it. If you can trade Bowden. Do it. Papelbon will probably be back as the closer. I would be trying to move him in a trade. It's his last season under team control and we should get something for him. He is not the same pitcher anymore.

 

That's my take. Theo has alott of work to do. Unfortunately I didn't bring Papi back here as well. Although I'll change my earlier stance and say I'd bring back Ortiz before Martinez.

[Dojji]

We've already lost one young catcher to our unability to let Varitek go. Kottaras would have been useful when all we had to trot out there was Cash and Molina, and he isn't sucking in Milwaukee. I can't believe we're also going to sacrifice Saltalamacchia to the same pagan idol. He's going to be here, backing up V-Mart if not starting himself with V-Mart at first

 

I would absolutely LOVE to keep Varitek around in a coaching capacity, he's got the perfect mentality to switch into that role, and I want him around to be the next manager if Francona's health betrays him. Shift DeMarlo Hale back to third base coach (PLEASE!!!!) and install Tek as the bench coach. Or install him as the bullpen coach. But his days in the field are done.

[Palodios]

I think its pretty clear that Varitek is great in limited time. Yes, his defense is suspect, but his offense has been ridiculously good, especially against lefties this season. He is still very valuable to this team as a captain, and with his working knowledge of how to command a pitching staff. I think he's worth bringing back if VMart walks.

 

On another note, does anyone have opinions on John Buck? He's only 30, he hits for power, and can probably be gotten on the cheap. He's another one that fails to throw out baserunners, but if he can save the team 40 million while waiting for prospects, he may be worth looking at. As usual, the free agent market for catchers is dismal, and offense seems to drop off substantially after Buck/Vmart.

 

Kottaras is hitting .196. I don't think he's a huge loss.

[Dojji]

Theo has committed to Saltalamacchia. specifically he's committed 4 prospects to Saltalamacchia. I'm 99% certain Salty will be in the majors as one of our two catchers come Hell or high water, so you get to choose between Tek and V-Mart as the other one. I'd say the choice is fairly obvious.

[a700hitter]

Theo has committed to Saltalamacchia. specifically he's committed 4 prospects to Saltalamacchia. I'm 99% certain Salty will be in the majors as one of our two catchers come Hell or high water' date=' so you get to choose between Tek and V-Mart as the other one. I'd say the choice is fairly obvious.[/quote']I think Salty should start out 2011 in AAA until he proves himself. I would cut ties with Tek and get a starting catcher. I like VMart as the first baseman playing about 30-35 games at catcher. There are better offensive and defensive options at first base, but in interleague play we could put him behind the plate and play Ortiz at first and not lose one of our big bats.

[Palodios]

The deal ended up being for a 12th rounder who is hitting .156 in single A, an international player who has been struggling badly in low A, and a 13th rounder 1B playing decent in intermediate A. If any of them reaches the majors, it will be a surprise. Salty is here to give depth, he isn't guaranteed a spot unless he hits, and he wasn't hitting for Texas.

[a700hitter]

Kalish is not the answer in LF. I think he is the answer in CF after they part ways with Ellsbury after 2011. I wouldn't pass on Crawford who is a force.

[BMPritchard]

"Get a catcher

Move VMart to first

Move Youk to third

Get Carl Crawford

Get a top lefty for the pen"

 

Couldn't agree more with this. I've wanted Crawford for a while now, I think he'd be great in a Sox uniform.

 

I would add though, I think it's time for Bard to step into the closer's role. Get what we can for Papelbon.

[Will617]

If we could get Matt Kemp for Ellsbury (plus not too much else), that'd really be a trade worth looking into. He's a power right-handed bat that also has speed. I don't know about the status of possible prospects of theirs who would step into the 5th spot next year, but if Lilly leaves Doubront would look awfully interesting to them.

There's no reason to sign Crawford just to keep him from the Yankees. He is better than Ellsbury, but he's not significantly better, and that $18 million would be $18 million that doesn't go towards a power 1B down the road, or addressing the bullpen.

Adam Dunn is an interesting option to play first. His defense there has actually been average or slightly below average, after he finally gets a full offseason to work on one position defensively. The only problem is that he's left handed, and this teams' handedness seems like a major problem down the road. He probably wants a longer contract than we'd like to give him, though.

[redsoxrules]

I'd like to see Lee on this team but how would they make room for him ?

 

Lester

Buchholz

Lackey

Beckett

Dice K

[Will617]

Maybe Dice K could get traded. I heard the Diamondbacks were in the market for pitchers who are really good at racking up wins.

[Dojji]

"Get a catcher

Move VMart to first

Move Youk to third

Get Carl Crawford

Get a top lefty for the pen"

 

You skip a step if the "catcher" you grab is Napoli.

 

Just saying.

[jacksonianmarch]

The sox arent outbidding the Yanks for Lee

[Dojji]

If we could get Matt Kemp for Ellsbury (plus not too much else), that'd really be a trade worth looking into. He's a power right-handed bat that also has speed. I don't know about the status of possible prospects of theirs who would step into the 5th spot next year, but if Lilly leaves Doubront would look awfully interesting to them.

There's no reason to sign Crawford just to keep him from the Yankees. He is better than Ellsbury, but he's not significantly better, and that $18 million would be $18 million that doesn't go towards a power 1B down the road, or addressing the bullpen.

Adam Dunn is an interesting option to play first. His defense there has actually been average or slightly below average, after he finally gets a full offseason to work on one position defensively. The only problem is that he's left handed, and this teams' handedness seems like a major problem down the road. He probably wants a longer contract than we'd like to give him, though.

 

Not only do I think that Ellsbury is here to stay, I think that the price on Kemp would be an unpleasant surprise. The Dodgers saw what happened with Alexis Rios just like everyone else did.

[Will617]

Not only do I think that Ellsbury is here to stay' date=' I think that the price on Kemp would be an unpleasant surprise. The Dodgers saw what happened with Alexis Rios just like everyone else did.[/quote']

 

Yeah, I doubt that Kemp will come here either without a massive package, but a lot of players get moved after a bad season. See: Dan Haren. Given that the Dodgers thought they were buyers at the deadline, I don't think their FO is very good; there's a chance that their FO makes a reactionary move to drop Kemp. Not big, but hey, if we want to discuss the possibility of an Adrian Gonzalez trade, we should talk about Matt Kemp while we're at it.