5/5 Vs Anaheim.

[Palodios]

Big win! This has been the first time I've actually felt pretty good about the team all season. Lackey/Lester/ Buchholz are really getting into a groove right now, and Beckett hopefully won't be far behind. Plus, our outfield will be back to normal soon enough.

[Chamomile]

A nice, easy 10 pitch save for Papelbon. That's 21 consecutive converted save opportunities for him. Other than the first half of last year, he's been a lights out closer.

[Jasonbay44]

Dipre mojo in full effect and must continue.

[YeAuldBroade]

Great game but I'm going cross-eyed, DVRing both the Sox and Bruins... I have no life! But right now I really don't mind.

 

Dipre mojo..... I BELIEVE.

[a700hitter]

f*** Papelbon! If he wants money, get rid of him. So what that he is the all-time team leader in saves and that he is in his prime. Saves is a meaningless category.

[Cocos Disciples]

Coco in attendance mojo rolls on as well. Everyone chip in to buy me tickets to tomorrow!

[riverside sluggers]

Sox have now won 10 out of their last 15 games. Heres hoping Dice K has a quality start to put the finishing touch on this 4 game series

[bsox0407]

Nice to get back to .500 and .500 at home.

[diony]

A nice' date=' easy 10 pitch save for Papelbon. That's [b']21[/b] consecutive converted save opportunities for him. Other than the first half of last year, he's been a lights out closer.

 

Right, the ALDS doesn't counts.

[Chamomile]

Sox have now won 10 out of their last 15 games. Heres hoping Dice K has a quality start to put the finishing touch on this 4 game series

 

Yeah, as much as it @#$%ing sucks that we got swept by Baltimore, we've been playing really well for the most part. Our pitching is just starting to come around, as is our defense. We'll be just fine.

[Chamomile]

Right' date=' the ALDS doesn't counts.[/quote']

 

That's right, playoffs stats "doesn't counts" when it comes to regular season marks. But I'm sure you already knew that.

[Jasonbay44]

That's right' date=' playoffs stats "doesn't counts" when it comes to regular season marks. But I'm sure you already knew that.[/quote']

 

No, I'm pretty sure he wouldn't know that. I don't even understand why Yankee fans who add nothing to the board but trolling are allowed to post here.

 

I don't have a problem with Yankee fans here who are good posters (Y228, Jacko, 26 to 6), but diony adds nothing to this board but stupid remarks and attempts at starting a fight, which is obvious trolling.

[Migual Cabrera 2 sox 2009]

Nice win tonight, I was reading a wonderful book called "Life is sweet in Kumansenu" and missed this game, but I will attempt to finish "The first seven years" by tomorrows game. Later i am writing a poem, God I love being single

[Chamomile]

Lester is 2-0 with a 0.43 ERA his last three starts and Lackey is 2-0 with a 2.57 ERA his last three starts. Once Beckett joins the party, it'll be just like the Sox drew it up.

 

As for the offense, it's performed exactly as expected. We're third in the league in OPS, the runs will follow.

[Palodios]

Some conditional statistics are relevant, like how a relief pitcher matches up against left handers, or how some players play better earlier in the season and some play better later. But this isn't the case, its a matter of excluding a statistic to give an illusion that make Paps look better. He messed up, that isn't an opinion it is a fact, so move on.

[Chamomile]

Some conditional statistics are relevant' date=' like how a relief pitcher matches up against left handers, or how some players play better earlier in the season and some play better later. But this isn't the case, its a matter of excluding a statistic to give an illusion that make Paps look better. He messed up, that isn't an opinion it is a fact, so move on.[/quote']

 

So what if Paps blew a single postseason save? It was the first time he'd ever given up a run in the postseason in 18 appearances. Hell, Mo's the best postseason pitcher of all time and he blew 3 saves in the same postseason.

 

No one needs to give an illusion to make Paps look better. He was unhittable in 2006, he was unhittable in 2007, he was unhittable in 2008, he was unhittable the second half of 2009 and he's been unhittable this year. He's one of the best closers in baseball.

[TedWilliams101]

Some conditional statistics are relevant' date=' like how a relief pitcher matches up against left handers, or how some players play better earlier in the season and some play better later. But this isn't the case, its a matter of excluding a statistic to give an illusion that make Paps look better. He messed up, that isn't an opinion it is a fact, so move on.[/quote']

 

5 Seasons as a closer:

264 games, 158 Saves in 176 opportunities (90%), 1.82 ERA, 0.963 WHIP, 10.4 K/9, 4.5 K/BB

 

Post-Season:

18 games (27 IP), 7 saves in 8 opportunities, 1.00 ERA, 0.815 WHIP, 7.7 K/9, 2.88 K/BB

 

His regular seasons numbers are better than Rivera across the board and his playoff numbers are similar, albeit it he has a ton less appearances. Paps is one of the best closers in the game and is the best in Red Sox history by a moon shot.

[Chamomile]

5 Seasons as a closer:

264 games, 158 Saves in 176 opportunities (90%), 1.82 ERA, 0.963 WHIP, 10.4 K/9, 4.5 K/BB

 

Post-Season:

18 games (27 IP), 7 saves in 8 opportunities, 1.00 ERA, 0.815 WHIP, 7.7 K/9, 2.88 K/BB

 

His regular seasons numbers are better than Rivera across the board and his playoff numbers are similar, albeit it he has a ton less appearances. Paps is one of the best closers in the game and is the best in Red Sox history by a moon shot.

 

Yup, pretty much. This is Papelbon's 5 season as our closer and his career stats are better than the best closer of all time. What more do you want from him?

[a700hitter]

He wants money. He has to go. Moonball Bard is the Red Sox closer of the future.

[YeAuldBroade]

Why is it when an established player already on the Sox is up for a new contract - he's scum and not worth what he'll be asking BUT all you hear on these boards 24/7 is how the front office needs to drop a truckload of cash on some ding-dong that plays elsewhere, may not be available but did once hit 35 homeruns in a season. Paps is tried and true, unless he overprices himself too much, then of course they should sign him.

[ORS]

I don't think it's the money, not in a vacuum. It's this....

 

[table]Year|WHIP|K/9

2006|0.776|9.9

2007|0.771|13.0

2008|0.952|10.0

2009|1.147|10.1

2010|1.200|6.6[/table]

 

...combined with a perception that the money he expects to get extended is predicated on performance from 2-3 years ago that isn't being delivered now.

 

If he can right the ship and perform like he did 2-3 years ago, I don't think money would be an obstacle, but it seems like his expectation doesn't match the reality of his current performance.

 

Conversely, "Moonball" Bard has an 0.840 WHIP with a 22/4 K/BB ratio in 16.2 IP. Those are the numbers Papelbon was putting up and is expecting to get paid for now (although he's not doing that anymore).

 

More than anything, I want Papelbon to revert to the Papelbon of old, the one that resides in everyone's mind right now when they incorrectly refer to him as a still "dominant" closer, and to get paid for it. But, if I'm playing and paying the person based on what I think they will do for me from this point forward, Bard is the choice based on trends. Hopefully that changes, not the part about Bard being good, but the part about Papelbon slipping. Overall, that would be best for the team.

[Palodios]

So what if Paps blew a single postseason save? It was the first time he'd ever given up a run in the postseason in 18 appearances. Hell, Mo's the best postseason pitcher of all time and he blew 3 saves in the same postseason.

 

The point is that its not 21 consecutive if he blew a save in the middle. It is a conditional statistic. As said, move on.

[a700hitter]

Papelbon doesn't have to revert to anything. He's better than most of the best, and that's all he needs to be. Any change in his stats probably reflect the fact of adjustments by opposing batters to him and vice versa. They don't reflect a diminishing ability. They just don't as his results are consistently excellent, and that's what matters, not peripherals.

[redsoxrules]

IF that graph that ORS showed keeps going down so will he

if no adjustements are made he wont be elite anymore in 2-3 years from now

[ORS]

Papelbon doesn't have to revert to anything. He's better than most of the best' date=' and that's all he needs to be. Any change in his stats probably reflect the fact of adjustments by opposing batters to him and vice versa. They don't reflect a diminishing ability. They just don't as his results are consistently excellent, and that's what matters, not peripherals.[/quote']

It took 4 years for hitters to realize he was good? Is that the suggestion here?

 

Give me a break. Actually, answer this, and be honest, are you as confident when he enters to finish the game as you were 3 years ago? Without looking at stats, I know I'm not. Not with the way hitters have been able to keep ABs going against him and the increase in walks. That errosion in confidence is what the peripherals back up. He's not the same pitcher.

[Chamomile]

I don't think it's the money, not in a vacuum. It's this....

 

[table]Year|WHIP|K/9

2006|0.776|9.9

2007|0.771|13.0

2008|0.952|10.0

2009|1.147|10.1

2010|1.200|6.6[/table]

 

 

Those are all very solid numbers with the exception of this year and that's a small sample size.

[a700hitter]

It took 4 years for hitters to realize he was good? Is that the suggestion here?

 

Give me a break. Actually, answer this, and be honest, are you as confident when he enters to finish the game as you were 3 years ago? Without looking at stats, I know I'm not. Not with the way hitters have been able to keep ABs going against him and the increase in walks. That errosion in confidence is what the peripherals back up. He's not the same pitcher.

He's still excellent. No one is the the same pitchers after 4 or 5 years and batters are constantly making adjustments. Closers have the advantage of hitters not seeing them a whole lot, so it takes longer to make adjustments to them than to a starting pitcher. The guys from teams in his own division see him more and they have made the adjustments quicker than the rest of the league. Papelbon has been making adjustments too. Anyone who thinks that Mo hasn't made adjustments throughout the years is just kidding themselves. His bread and butter is still the cut fastball that goes away from righties and in to lefties, but that is not all he throws. He's developed a two seamer that runs the opposite way. There were years where he used a 4 seamer a lot. The great ones adjust as they go along and continue to get excellent results. They are concerned with results not peripherals.

[italstallianion]

Those are all very solid numbers with the exception of this year and that's a small sample size.

 

 

Regardless, there's still an ominous pattern developing.

[a700hitter]

I don't think it's the money, not in a vacuum. It's this....

 

[table]Year|WHIP|K/9

2006|0.776|9.9

2007|0.771|13.0

2008|0.952|10.0

2009|1.147|10.1

2010|1.200|6.6[/table]

 

2010 is not a valid comparable. As for the other trends, those are all really good numbers. Even the incomparable, Mo had a few years where his WHIP exceeded 1.1 and he had several years where his WHIP exceeded 1. He also had a four year stretch early in his career frm 1999-2002 where his k's/9 were 5.6, 6.9, 6.8 and 6.8. Was that a trend of bad things?

[a700hitter]

Regardless' date=' there's still an ominous pattern developing.[/quote']There is no ominous pattern. The only pattern is consistent excellence.