5/5 Vs Anaheim.

[schillingouttheks]

Those are all very solid numbers with the exception of this year and that's a small sample size.

 

That's not the problem though. It's the trend.

[a700hitter]

That's not the problem though. It's the trend.

Yes, we must be alert to the trend of excellence. The warning signs are there. He'll suck in 15 years.

[italstallianion]

Yes' date=' we must be alert to the trend of excellence. The warning signs are there. He'll suck in 15 years.[/quote']

 

 

I don't think we'll have to worry about that because he won't be on the team for too much longer.

[a700hitter]

I don't think we'll have to worry about that because he won't be on the team for too much longer.

...and that will be a damned shame. I hope he signs for an NL team if he leaves so he doesn't stick it up our ass 5 or 6 times a year.

[ORS]

Are you going to answer my question?

[a700hitter]

Are you going to answer my question?

I still pray for the ball to get into Papelbon's hand, because i am confident that he will lock it down-- as confident as ever.

[TedWilliams101]

2006: 0.92 ERA, 35 saves in 41 opportunities (85% success)

2007: 1.85 ERA, 37 saves in 40 opportunities (93% success)

2008: 2.34 ERA, 41 saves in 46 opportunities (89% success)

2009: 1.85 ERA, 38 saves in 41 opportunities (93% success)

2010: 1.80 ERA, 8 saves in 8 opportunities (100% success)

 

You can post all the Whip and K/BB patterns you want, but the bottom line is he delivers. He hasn't gotten worse the last few season. He was stellar in '09 and has been great so far this season. So his walks have gone up, but it isn't causing him to blow saves or give up more runs.

 

I think the fact that people have to use his increased WHIP and walks as his only flaw says a lot about how good he is. Yeah, he might not be as dominant as he was in 06/07, but you're talking semantics. He went from absolutely unhittable to extremely hard to hit. The point is, he is still the one of the top 3 closers in baseball, probably 2nd behind Rivera.

 

ORS:

To answer your question, yes, I'm as confident as ever in Papelbon. I don't expect him to strike out the side every time he goes to the mound, but I am just as confident in him shutting the door. He may get in jams every now and then, but he almost always manages to get out of them. So he blows a few a season, no one is untouchable, not even Rivera.

[a700hitter]

I still pray for the ball to get into Papelbon's hand' date=' because i am confident that he will lock it down-- as confident as ever.[/quote']

...and why wouldn't I be? He had a 93% Save percentage-- higher than 2006, 07 or 08.

[ORS]

I too want the ball in Papelbon's hand, but only because it means we have the lead or are tied in the final frame. He scares the crap out of me right now, though. We must see different things when we watch the game.

 

To your question about Rivera and the warning signs. I recall many people saying he was starting to slip. He got better. It remains to be seen if Papelbon can. The biggest thing that scares me about Papelbon, which did not happen with Rivera, is the ballooning of the walk rate. The highest of Rivera's career after he was established was 3.0 per 9 IP. Papelbon was slightly worse last year, and is demonstrably worse this year. Hopefully, he too can get better. What's nice is that they still have all of the remainder of this year and next to find out before making a commitment. If he becomes dominant again, then it's probably a good idea to extend him this offseason. But, if he continues to get worse, I'd wait and see what the market offers him for his services.

[ORS]

2006: 0.92 ERA, 35 saves in 41 opportunities (85% success)

2007: 1.85 ERA, 37 saves in 40 opportunities (93% success)

2008: 2.34 ERA, 41 saves in 46 opportunities (89% success)

2009: 1.85 ERA, 38 saves in 41 opportunities (93% success)

2010: 1.80 ERA, 8 saves in 8 opportunities (100% success)

 

You can post all the Whip and K/BB patterns you want, but the bottom line is he delivers. He hasn't gotten worse the last few season. He was stellar in '09 and has been great so far this season. So his walks have gone up, but it isn't causing him to blow saves or give up more runs.

 

I think the fact that people have to use his increased WHIP and walks as his only flaw says a lot about how good he is. Yeah, he might not be as dominant as he was in 06/07, but you're talking semantics. He went from absolutely unhittable to extremely hard to hit. The point is, he is still the one of the top 3 closers in baseball, probably 2nd behind Rivera.

 

ORS:

To answer your question, yes, I'm as confident as ever in Papelbon. I don't expect him to strike out the side every time he goes to the mound, but I am just as confident in him shutting the door. He may get in jams every now and then, but he almost always manages to get out of them. So he blows a few a season, no one is untouchable, not even Rivera.

With Hoffman deciding to hang on rather than hang them up, I'm not sure if this still holds true, but as of 2 years ago, he had a better save rate than Rivera, with more overall saves. Clearly, he's better than Rivera, right? Or is save rate a little misleading? Let me know what you think.

[a700hitter]

I too want the ball in Papelbon's hand, but only because it means we have the lead or are tied in the final frame. He scares the crap out of me right now, though. We must see different things when we watch the game.

 

To your question about Rivera and the warning signs. I recall many people saying he was starting to slip. He got better. It remains to be seen if Papelbon can. The biggest thing that scares me about Papelbon, which did not happen with Rivera, is the ballooning of the walk rate. The highest of Rivera's career after he was established was 3.0 per 9 IP. Papelbon was slightly worse last year, and is demonstrably worse this year. Hopefully, he too can get better. What's nice is that they still have all of the remainder of this year and next to find out before making a commitment. If he becomes dominant again, then it's probably a good idea to extend him this offseason. But, if he continues to get worse, I'd wait and see what the market offers him for his services.

He doesn't scare me at all. As for his higher BB/9 than Mo, he makes up for it with higher k/9 numbers. What would scare me would be if he wasn't on the mound holding the ball at the end of the game. This guy is great, and he finds out how to get it done. He's $ in the bank year in and year out with no slippage in the important categories.

[TedWilliams101]

I think you are overstating his K/BB ratio. Rivera's career K/BB ratio is 3.93. He had 3 seasons with a K/BB ratio under 3 (surprisingly it was his 2,3, and 4th seasons as a closer similar to Paps right now). Guess what, he still was lights out in all 3 of those years and his K/BB ratio got better again.

 

I think it's way to early for this conversation. If at the end of the year Paps has a K/BB ratio under 3 and his ERA and blown saves skyrocket, then I'd say it's time to be worried.

[a700hitter]

With Hoffman deciding to hang on rather than hang them up' date=' I'm not sure if this still holds true, but as of 2 years ago, he had a better save rate than Rivera, with more overall saves. Clearly, he's better than Rivera, right? Or is save rate a little misleading? Let me know what you think.[/quote']If Hoffman had Mo's post season record, it would be hard to say that he wasn't just as good as Mo. The post season record is the only reason why Hoffman is not considered to be as good as Hoffman. Hoffman is not as good as Mo so that means save % is meaningless? Sorry, but I am not buying. When his slipping peripherals affect his save %, they become meaningful. Until then, the peripherals are still pretty good and they are having no effect on his save %. But let's let him walk on a pattern that isn't really a pattern that has no effect on his results. That sounds like a plan.

[TedWilliams101]

With Hoffman deciding to hang on rather than hang them up' date=' I'm not sure if this still holds true, but as of 2 years ago, he had a better save rate than Rivera, with more overall saves. Clearly, he's better than Rivera, right? Or is save rate a little misleading? Let me know what you think.[/quote']

 

I'm not going strictly by saves rate, I'm simply showing that his ERA was under 2 last year and so far this year while converting his career high save percentage. My point was that he is still elite and getting the job done, despite more walks.

 

As for Hoffman, he was one of the best closer in history as recent as last year. 2008 wasn't a great year for him and age has certainly caught up with him... how does that have anything to do with Rivera or Papelbon? Rivera is still dominating and Papelbon is in his prime. It feels like your reaching.

[a700hitter]

I'm not going strictly by saves rate, I'm simply showing that his ERA was under 2 last year and so far this year while converting his career high save percentage. My point was that he is still elite and getting the job done, despite more walks.

 

As for Hoffman, he was one of the best closer in history as recent as last year. 2008 wasn't a great year for him and age has certainly caught up with him... how does that have anything to do with Rivera or Papelbon? Rivera is still dominating and Papelbon is in his prime. It feels like your reaching.

His argument has no merit. It is a theory without anything to back it up.

[Palodios]

I think you are overstating his K/BB ratio. Rivera's career K/BB ratio is 3.93. He had 3 seasons with a K/BB ratio under 3 (surprisingly it was his 2,3, and 4th seasons as a closer similar to Paps right now). Guess what, he still was lights out in all 3 of those years and his K/BB ratio got better again.

 

I think it's way to early for this conversation. If at the end of the year Paps has a K/BB ratio under 3 and his ERA and blown saves skyrocket, then I'd say it's time to be worried.

 

Talksox loves overstating advanced statistics. Sometimes you need to use your own judgement-- especially in a case of Papelbon whose save percentage is so ridiculously high.

[Dipre]

Talksox loves overstating advanced statistics. Sometimes you need to use your own judgement-- especially in a case of Papelbon whose save percentage is so ridiculously high.

 

Explain exactly how.

[a700hitter]

Explain exactly how.

In the case of Papelbon's peripherals and the so-called pattern of decline in those statistics.

[Dipre]

In the case of Papelbon's peripherals and the so-called pattern of decline in those statistics.

 

Don't think they're overstating it. I simply don't agree because Papelbon keeps getting it done, but signs indicate he could blow up anytime soon.

[a700hitter]

Don't think they're overstating it. I simply don't agree because Papelbon keeps getting it done' date=' but signs indicate he could blow up anytime soon.[/quote']He could go on and on like Mo, Hoffman, Lee Smith etc. Those stats indicate nothing. ORS is a knowledgeable guy, but he is chasing shadows in this case.

[Dipre]

He could go on and on like Mo' date=' Hoffman, Lee Smith etc. Those stats indicate nothing. ORS is a knowledgeable guy, but he is chasing shadows in this case.[/quote']

 

Those stats indicate a decline in his overall performance, and the stats are unbiased. We're on similar sides of the argument, but until he proves with performance he can go on as the names above mentioned, the shadow cast on him is legit.