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Posted
Green played probably too much last year, that is why he started to struggle. There is reason why he is a career backup. He was great for a pretty long stretch, but the Sox rode that pony too long last year. I had no complaints about the guy, he did his best of his abilities and it worked for most his tenure while starting
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Posted

16 games in, but I think this team has shown some red flags that could potentially lead to disaster.

 

First off, the most glaring of late....defense from the catcher position. Varitek is not an everyday player anymore, and his AB's need to be limited (hes about where he should be for PT). He also has trouble throwing runners out, but at least he can handle the staff. Victor Martinez cannot continue to field the way he has. His offensive production, while great for a catcher, will not make up for what he loses in his defense, throwing ability, and his ability to handle the pitching staff. If Martinez continues to field the way he is now, a move HAS to be made, and Victor himself might need to be part of that deal since it appears that they are not going to re-sign him anyway. It was clear before we traded for him anyway that Cleveland was already transitioning him to 1B.

 

Next, there is the whole mess with Ortiz, Lowell, Beltre. If the sox have to trade for a catcher who can play everyday (Suzuki), they will need to make up for the offense lost (Martinez, if part of any deal). We have already seen that this team may have a hard time scoring runs, granted they have not been healthy. If Cameron and Ellsbury (broken rib) miss significant amounts of time, we are in trouble without acquiring a bat sooner than later. The bat we do acquire will have to be a 1B or DH, but if we do acquire a bat, then either that bat (Gonzalez?) or Youkilis will be removed from playing defense. This is another uncertainty. How do we know Gonzalez would be ok with it? How do we know Youkilis would be ok with it? We can sit here and say that Youkilis will play third, but how good of a 3B is Youkilis? He has also aged away from the position, how many years can he play 3B effectively if at all? If we acquire someone like Gonzalez....what do we do with Ortiz, Lowell and Beltre? They could acquire a bat for the OF to replace one of the injured OF, but if they acquire a star, does that mean Cameron is on the bench grossly overpaid for the next two years? If Cameron is on the bench, where does that leave Hermdia?

 

Another issue, Wakefield is going to the bullpen. Neither catcher can catch him, and the Rangers stole 10 bases on him the other night. What value does he have to the bullpen? If he has zero worth in the pen, and hes not good enough at this point for the rotation.....what is his role?

 

This is not a knee jerk reaction, since I am kind of sitting on the fence and just sort of throwing around some observations and scenarios that I have thought of in terms of moving forward the next few weeks.

 

What do you guys think?

Posted
Thus far the acquisition of Beltre has been a bust. His acquisition has created a logjam at 1st and 3rd forcing VMart to catch too much. He has not hit a HR yet, as he flails away at the plate with no plate discipline. He has already made a few fielding errors, and there have been a few bonehead plays to like not covering 3B on a ball fielded by Lester and getting thrown out at 2B when the team was behind and needed to start a rally. The worst thing he has done has been to knock our leadoff hitter and offensive catalyst out of the lineup by running into him on a ball that was clearly Ellsbury's that he was calling all the way. The worst part is that we will probably be stuck with him next season.
Posted
SCM, I think you hit the nail on the head with the Wakefield thing. He goes from starter to a guy they cannot trust with the game on the line. He's now a mop-up guy and probably this is the end for him
Posted
I'd throw Lowell out there more and let him test out the hip, its better than watching Beltre flail away at pitches and be a dissapointment. If Lowell starts to hit and prove can play the field you either increase his trade value or ride him till he cools down. Ortiz needs to be DFA or sent down to Triple A to figure his s*** out. V-Mart needs to play 1stbase/DH more b/c his inability to throw out runners and play defense behind the plate is hurting the team. For a team built on defense, having a s***** defensive catcher makes perfect sense, Theo. Trade for a defensive catcher, get V-Mart more AB's at 1st/DH, move Youk to third then and have Beltre's useless ass sit on the bench. Adrian Gonzalez rumors need to begin, but it would be hard to lose Buchholz
Posted
Thus far the acquisition of Beltre has been a bust. His acquisition has created a logjam at 1st and 3rd forcing VMart to catch too much.

 

This was my point last year when I said we didn't need him. Bad start aside, I think an average Beltre still does more harm than good to this team.

 

Funny how Lowell can still hit and make most of the plays even though many have him all but in a wheelchair. Between Youk, Lowell, Tek, and Vmart, we already had 1B, 3B, C (and DH) covered. Without Beltre, I'm betting Papi would have been sat a bit because Tito would know he'd be back in a game or two regardless of how his replacement played. Much tougher to sit him now with the logjam. Should his replacement now produce, Tito would has no excuse not to sit Papi.

 

I'm still convinced this front office makes more moves than they need to and ultimately disrupt the team's rhythm and flow unnecessarily.

Posted

Let me trying and think of ten ways to fix the team (in no order of importance)

 

1. Bench Ortiz. The guy is out there killing our lineup and when you have a bat as capable as Lowell on the bench you can't waste it

 

2. Get a defensive minded catcher. Either trade for Kurt Suzuki or bring up Mark Wagner. Get V-Mart more Ab's at DH and 1stbase, which means Beltre needs to sit down for a while when Youk plays 3rd and Ortiz gets DFA'ed

 

3. Trade for Adrian Gonzalez

 

4. Get some help in middle relief

 

5. Get everyone healthy and on track. Its hard to perform at your top level when your catalyst atop the lineup and LF, and CF are on the DL. The starting rotation will be fine, its the least of my worries. If Dice-K sucks then Wake goes back into the rotation. V-Mart, Youk, and Drew are struggling, that won't last forever.

 

Well, I got 5

Posted
Offensively' date=' Beltre's approach should be concerning. The guy swings at everything. But he is as advertised. He'll hit double digit homers and play good D. He just wont have a high OBP[/quote']

 

Exactly what he has done over his career. Kill the OBP department but hit a bunch (Not double digits, 20+ would seem more accurate) of homers and doubles. He'll come around.

Posted
Buchholz loses trade value if he moves to the pen.. no need to stunt his growth as a starter.. he has pitched better and IS a better pitcher than Tim Wakefield. A kid who has confidence issues is fragile..it will do more harm than good sending Clay to the pen after he has pitched so well this season and the end of last year. You can bet Hoyer has his eye on Clay...he would be the ace of the Padres staff right now and for years to come.
Posted
What i'm trying to say is that he's (Green) probably not as good as he looked last year' date=' but probably right around average.[/quote']

 

Average is more or less what he looked last year -- at least what I mean by that is that he both hit and defended up to his major league career levels. There isn't too much evidence to suggest what Nick Green is was a fluke. He could start for a weak team, I actually thought the Orioles or someone might even give him a shot, but his real value is as a backup infielder, and I really wanted him back for that role.

 

I'd like this team to take a look at a deal for Derrek Lee. The Cubs are not doing well but they are a team that can take salary back, and they have some expensive talent to offload. Unlike the Padres, the Cubs are a team that has a clear use for the players we have available as trading pieces.

 

If we sent them Mike Lowell and enough prospects to offset the value of Lee, that's something whoever's in charge down there can sell to the fanbase as an investment in the future youth movement while securing a short-term replacement so that the team could still contend this year. Lowell would play 1B in Chicago and we get the bigtime hitter we need.

Posted
Average is more or less what he looked last year -- at least what I mean by that is that he both hit and defended up to his major league career levels. There isn't too much evidence to suggest what Nick Green is was a fluke. He could start for a weak team' date=' I actually thought the Orioles or someone might even give him a shot, but his real value is as a backup infielder, and I really wanted him back for that role.[/quote']

 

I'm talking about Defense. There's a lot of evidence to support that UZR can easily suffer significant deviations on smaller sample sizes. On the offensive side of the ball, Nick Green was, well, Nick Green.

Posted
Average is more or less what he looked last year -- at least what I mean by that is that he both hit and defended up to his major league career levels. There isn't too much evidence to suggest what Nick Green is was a fluke. He could start for a weak team, I actually thought the Orioles or someone might even give him a shot, but his real value is as a backup infielder, and I really wanted him back for that role.

 

I'd like this team to take a look at a deal for Derrek Lee. The Cubs are not doing well but they are a team that can take salary back, and they have some expensive talent to offload. Unlike the Padres, the Cubs are a team that has a clear use for the players we have available as trading pieces.

 

If we sent them Mike Lowell and enough prospects to offset the value of Lee, that's something whoever's in charge down there can sell to the fanbase as an investment in the future youth movement while securing a short-term replacement so that the team could still contend this year. Lowell would play 1B in Chicago and we get the bigtime hitter we need.

 

The Cubs will be in the race, and they have money. We'd need to look for an early seller, and i don't think the Cubs fit that mold.

Posted
I'm talking about Defense. There's a lot of evidence to support that UZR can easily suffer significant deviations on smaller sample sizes. On the offensive side of the ball' date=' Nick Green was, well, Nick Green.[/quote']

 

I'm talking about both. I am leaning a bit hard on UZR/150 but it did like Nick Green's overall defensive performance this year, and it was a match for what career numbers were available for Green at SS.

Posted

Well I know of one RHH outfielder who's had a bit of a resurgence this year, and you know his team is going nowhere and has to be dying to get rid of his contract. You could probably get him for a song and he's the current league leader in homers.

 

I'm not sure what the team would think about bringing in Vernon Wells, though. But if he was playing for something, maybe he could be motivated to not suck. Danged expensive gamble but it could pay off bigtime.

Posted
I'm talking about both. I am leaning a bit hard on UZR/150 but it did like Nick Green's overall defensive performance this year' date=' and it was a match for what career numbers were available for Green at SS.[/quote']

 

His total career sample size at SS consists of 104 games. That is an extremely small and malleable sample size per UZR's measurements.

Posted
True, but if it's the only sample you have to work with, whatcha gonna do? It certainly does suggest that Nick Green is at least capable at SS. By shortstop standards he doesn't put up a terrible at bat either.
Posted
True' date=' but if it's the only sample you have to work with, whatcha gonna do? It certainly does suggest that Nick Green is at least capable at SS. By shortstop standards he doesn't put up a terrible at bat either.[/quote']

 

Fair enough.

Posted
Well I know of one RHH outfielder who's had a bit of a resurgence this year, and you know his team is going nowhere and has to be dying to get rid of his contract. You could probably get him for a song and he's the current league leader in homers.

 

I'm not sure what the team would think about bringing in Vernon Wells, though. But if he was playing for something, maybe he could be motivated to not suck. Danged expensive gamble but it could pay off bigtime.

 

Why do you think the Sox would pick up a 90 million dollar contract for a career .800 OPS outfielder? Especially considering Cameron is here next year, and Ellsbury and Drew are not going anywhere. If they didn't pay the money for Holliday, I can't believe that they'll try to pick up Wells. I personally thought he would be involved in a Lowell/Beckett type deal when Halladay was traded, but I don't think 17 good games for Wells would make him any easier for them to get rid of.

Posted

One of the ways to fix this team is for Theo to buy completely and totally into pitching and defense.

 

First, if your goal is to have great defense, you need to have it up the middle. Martinez is a joke defensively, Varitek isnt much better and Scutaro has shown he's average to below average.

 

Second, you need to have a roster that is redundant in this belief. Having a bench with Hermida (an AWFUL OFer), Hall (and AWFUL OFer and a poor IFer), and Lowell (now a below average defender) makes any subs or injuries completely undermine their plan.

 

I know you guys will call me a homer, but look at the Yankees. They didnt set a motto of pitching and defense, but they are living it right now. Their IF is above average right now and their outfield has been really solid. They have a poor defensive catcher, but about 1/3 or 1/4 of the time a great defensive catcher replaces him. In the IF, Pena, a very solid defender, is the first to come off the bench. And in the OF, Randy Winn is the prime defender off the bench. They seemed to buy into the pitching and defense mantra better than the sox did, and the sox came into this yr touting it.

Posted
One of the ways to fix this team is for Theo to buy completely and totally into pitching and defense.

 

First, if your goal is to have great defense, you need to have it up the middle. Martinez is a joke defensively, Varitek isnt much better and Scutaro has shown he's average to below average.

 

Second, you need to have a roster that is redundant in this belief. Having a bench with Hermida (an AWFUL OFer), Hall (and AWFUL OFer and a poor IFer), and Lowell (now a below average defender) makes any subs or injuries completely undermine their plan.

 

I know you guys will call me a homer, but look at the Yankees. They didnt set a motto of pitching and defense, but they are living it right now. Their IF is above average right now and their outfield has been really solid. They have a poor defensive catcher, but about 1/3 or 1/4 of the time a great defensive catcher replaces him. In the IF, Pena, a very solid defender, is the first to come off the bench. And in the OF, Randy Winn is the prime defender off the bench. They seemed to buy into the pitching and defense mantra better than the sox did, and the sox came into this yr touting it.

 

Homer. And how has Scutaro shown he's "Average to below average" in April?

Posted
He's been nothing but average in his career' date=' and he has been pretty bad in a [b']SSS[/b] thus far.

 

Exactly. The real problem is V-Mart.

Posted
I know VMart is a problem' date=' but if you want prime defense, you need something more than an average SS.[/quote']

 

Well i got laughed at on this board for suggesting A-Gon or Adam Everett as one-year stopgaps instead of Scutaro, so i won't argue that point.

Posted
I remember that. I just think Theo said one thing, but his actions said another. He went "pitching and defense" in response to losing Bay. But he didnt really buy into pitching and defense
Posted
In fairness, I think the Sox would have been much better off hanging onto A-Gon than signing Scutaro. I'm not complaining though.

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