10 Ways to Fix this team

[Eck20and8]

Wasn't Duquette. Lester was drafted in '02.

 

was Duquette who had been scouting, Port pulled the trigger

 

either way, Theo's been bailed out by having the $ to sign big name FAs, he'd get crushed if forced to run a mid-market team

[Dipre]

was Duquette who had been scouting, Port pulled the trigger

 

either way, Theo's been bailed out by having the $ to sign big name FAs, he'd get crushed if forced to run a mid-market team

 

So looking up and down this roster you dont think this FO could construct a similar or better team with some more money constraints but a better drafting position? Thats intellectually dishonest.

[TedWilliams101]

Some people just don't understand that draft position can play a big part. Lets take a look at the current Phillies homegrowns compared to Boston.

Pitching: Hamels, Happ, Kendrick, Madison

Position players: Ruiz, Howard, Utley, Rollins

 

For Boston:

Pitching: Lester, Buchholz, Papelbon, Bard

Position Players: Youk, Pedroia, Ellbury

 

Those are pretty good players on both teams, I'd say the Sox have drafted better pitching while the Phillies drafted better position players, but look at what the teams have accomplished while drafting/developing these players (and draft position):

The Red Sox have won 90+ games 9 out of 11 seasons since 1998, making the playoffs in 8 of them and winning 2 WS.

The Phillies have only won 90+ games twice since 1998, only making the playoffs the last 3 years and winning 1 WS.

 

It's hard to keep a strong farm system when you are constantly drafting near the end of rounds and use your prospects as trade bait. The Sox have done a GREAT job of balancing this.

[Eck20and8]

So looking up and down this roster you dont think this FO could construct a similar or better team with some more money constraints but a better drafting position?

 

Don't forget they've lost some picks from signing FAs, which has never been Theo's strength.

 

I really don't like what happened this year with the trendy "defense first" philosophy. Reminds me a lot of the 2003 Bill James-inspired closer by committee strategy that eventually necessitated the Foulke signing. Theo has a thing for these faddish ideas that get cooked up by stats geeks. Rather than Beltre, Hall, and Cameron, would rather have seen more traditional Red Sox players who can hit - guys like Ankiel or Matsui.

 

Part of the reason there's so much pressure on Ortiz and JD Drew is so much of the rest of the lineup is there for a glove, not a bat. And the result is $100 million worth of guys OPSing .630.

[Eck20and8]

Pitching: Hamels, Happ, Kendrick, Madison

Position players: Ruiz, Howard, Utley, Rollins

 

For Boston:

Pitching: Lester, Buchholz, Papelbon, Bard

Position Players: Youk, Pedroia, Ellbury

 

Lester and Youk weren't drafted by Theo.

 

Give Theo the credit for Pedroia - that was not an obvious pick, and for being present during the championships. But these failed flirtations with Sabermetric trends are incredibly costly, and instead of $200 million for Lackey and Dice-K, there should be guys like Bowden, Abe Alvarez, or someone from the farm actually panning out.

[Dipre]

Lester and Youk weren't drafted by Theo.

 

Give Theo the credit for Pedroia - that was not an obvious pick, and for being present during the championships. But these failed flirtations with Sabermetric trends are incredibly costly, and instead of $200 million for Lackey and Dice-K, there should be guys like Bowden, Abe Alvarez, or someone from the farm actually panning out.

 

Do you know how much time it takes to develop an above average starting pitcher? Youre talking like it happens overnight, and once again, that attempt at criticism is intellectuallly dishonest. Bash the FO for their FA failures all you want, since it is a valid gripe, but attacking the farm system in such a manner is an exercise in futility. There arent many other teams that have such a strong core of homegrown talent even with such a weak drafting position year in-year out. This is fact.

[Eck20and8]

There arent many other teams that have such a strong core of homegrown talent even with such a weak drafting position year in-year out. This is fact.

 

The Marlins and Twins sprout pitching prospects like weeds, and while they don't usually draft near the bottom, they're also not getting top 10 picks either.

 

The core of what both teams is some stats work - Twins pitchers are taught from day one that nothing is more important than throwing strikes, and the team is always among the leaders in fewest walks given up. While the Marlins are absolute scouting experts - both through minor league trades and draft. They're always able to find guys like Josh Johnson, Dan Uggla, Chris Volstad, and Ricky Nolasco.

 

Theo's mistakes with any lesser payroll would not have been patched up so easily, and he would have needed a far more productive farm system than he has created. He's not as bad as other big $ GMs like Jim Hendry and Omar Minaya, but he's not exceptional either. And this year we are seeing his defense experiment go bad quickly.

[Dipre]

The Marlins and Twins sprout pitching prospects like weeds, and while they don't usually draft near the bottom, they're also not getting top 10 picks either.

 

The core of what both teams is some stats work - Twins pitchers are taught from day one that nothing is more important than throwing strikes, and the team is always among the leaders in fewest walks given up. While the Marlins are absolute scouting experts - both through minor league trades and draft. They're always able to find guys like Josh Johnson, Dan Uggla, Chris Volstad, and Ricky Nolasco.

 

Theo's mistakes with any lesser payroll would not have been patched up so easily, and he would have needed a far more productive farm system than he has created. He's not as bad as other big $ GMs like Jim Hendry and Omar Minaya, but he's not exceptional either. And this year we are seeing his defense experiment go bad quickly.

 

 

The difference between drafting in the middle and drafting near the bottom is enormous, for one.

 

In regards to teams "sprouting prospects like weeds", have you looked at this teams current roster construction? Have you also looked at the difference in Division composition? If youre not objective while making an assesment, the argument loses validity.

 

The last paragraph is conjecture. With a lesser payroll but better draft position you have no way of knowing what kind of team he might have constructed.

[TheMino007]

Your ignoring the defense first experiment gone badly part...

[SoxSport]

Did somebody mention CHANGE? Tito isn't a change type of manager. He likes to stick with what he has, especially when it comes to veterans. That's his history. Change will have to come down from above.

 

Most of the suggestions I've seen here are good ones. But batting Pedroia 3rd probably looks as sensible to Tito as pitching a guy in relief more than 1 inning.

 

As far as dealing for AdGon right now, I'm not sure he would want to DH only at this point, and the IF would be a logjam. They are better off moving Hermida and Lowell into the DH role.

[Eck20and8]

but better draft position you have no way of knowing what kind of team he might have constructed.

 

Minnesota's got three starters who came after the 1st round, and two who came from trades, as did their closer. Completely stole Jon Rauch from the D-backs.

 

Team ERA was just 15/100ths higher than the Sox last year in spite of having mostly league minimum guys, while the Sox spent tens of millions, and this year the Twins ERA is just 3.62.

 

Marlins got Josh Johnson in the 4th round, and Ricky Nolasco was also a 4th rounder from the Cubs they got by trading....Juan Pierre. They got Chris Coghlan, last year's NL ROY in the supplemental round in 2006. While Coghlan was still available, the Sox drafted OFer Jason Place, who OPS'd a modest .738 last year in Portland, and is OPS'ing under .500 this year.

 

The checkbook can only bail out Theo so many times. Thanks to his trendy defense first strategy this year, he's going to have to trade for a bat now, and the price could be the few remaining prospects in the system.

[John5]

They also had some crappy teams through the years which allowed them a better draft position.

 

The Rays had no money and put everything into the draft. Ditto on draft position.

 

 

 

The idea that you need high first round picks to maintain a farm system that keeps churning out top flight players is absurd. The Rays prove this, after graduating Upton, Longoria, Price and Niemen (plus Young, who they flipped for Garza & Bartlet) they should be going through a "re-loading period".

 

So why do they have, depending on the source, the best or second best farm system in Baseball?

 

 

Their top prospects:

 

Desmond Jennings - Acquired: 2006 Draft, 10th Round, 289th Overall

Jeremy Hellickson - Acquired: 2005 Draft, 4th Round, 118th Overall

Wade Davis - Acquired: 2004 Draft, 3rd Round, 75th Overall

Matt Moore - Acquired: 2008 Draft, 8th Round, 245th Overall

Alex Colome - Signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2007

Reid Brignac - Acquired: 2004 Draft, 2nd Round, 45th Overall

Tim Beckham - Acquired: 2008 Draft, 1st Round, 1st Overall

 

These are the guys who popped up on most Top 100 prospects list, in that order. See the problem?

[Spudboy]

Hahahahaha!

 

Who ever you are, this is the best 1st post on Talksox that I've seen.

 

Just so you know, multiple accounts are a ban worthy offense. And if you're a previously banned member, you'll be gone just as quickly. Good luck.

[Dipre]

The idea that you need high first round picks to maintain a farm system that keeps churning out top flight players is absurd. The Rays prove this, after graduating Upton, Longoria, Price and Niemen (plus Young, who they flipped for Garza & Bartlet) they should be going through a "re-loading period".

 

So why do they have, depending on the source, the best or second best farm system in Baseball?

 

 

Their top prospects:

 

Desmond Jennings - Acquired: 2006 Draft, 10th Round, 289th Overall

Jeremy Hellickson - Acquired: 2005 Draft, 4th Round, 118th Overall

Wade Davis - Acquired: 2004 Draft, 3rd Round, 75th Overall

Matt Moore - Acquired: 2008 Draft, 8th Round, 245th Overall

Alex Colome - Signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2007

Reid Brignac - Acquired: 2004 Draft, 2nd Round, 45th Overall

Tim Beckham - Acquired: 2008 Draft, 1st Round, 1st Overall

 

These are the guys who popped up on most Top 100 prospects list, in that order. See the problem?

 

How many of those guys are proven ML starters who are currently playing in the Majors? If they all make the Majors in a span of three years, wouldn't the Rays need a re-loading period to re-adjust their roster?

 

Also, what about the difference in drafting strategy?

 

Did you also check the Red Sox draft history during those years?

 

The Red Sox are an example of why you don't need a high draft position to amass minor league talent, but having a good position is extremely helpful in doing so, as the Rays (and the host of top 20 picks in their current roster, and a #1 pick (Delmon Young) they used to acquire Garza can help illustrate. Evan Longoria (13 overall, 2006), BJ Upton, (1st Overall, 2002) , Jeff Niemann (#4 overall, 2004) and David Price (#1 overall, 2007) who are proven ML starters and who you coincidentially forgot to mention would attest to. The core of the Rays is mostly comprised of top 20 picks. What's absurd again?

 

Now let's compare the Sox current crop of ML talent (Mind you, this is proven talent that has been streamlined to the Majors:

 

Dustin Pedroia (#65 overall, 2004)

Daniel Bard (28 overall, 2006)

Jonathan Papelbon (#114 overall,2003)

Manny Delcarmen (#62 overall,2000)

Jon Lester (#52 overall, 2002)

Ellsbury and Bucholz (23,26 respectively, 2005)

 

Not a single top 20 pick. Do your homework.

 

Hahahahaha!

 

Who ever you are, this is the best 1st post on Talksox that I've seen.

 

Just so you know, multiple accounts are a ban worthy offense. And if you're a previously banned member, you'll be gone just as quickly. Good luck.

 

Stop trying to instigate s***. Seriously.

[Dipre]

Minnesota's got three starters who came after the 1st round, and two who came from trades, as did their closer. Completely stole Jon Rauch from the D-backs.

 

Team ERA was just 15/100ths higher than the Sox last year in spite of having mostly league minimum guys, while the Sox spent tens of millions, and this year the Twins ERA is just 3.62.

 

Marlins got Josh Johnson in the 4th round, and Ricky Nolasco was also a 4th rounder from the Cubs they got by trading....Juan Pierre. They got Chris Coghlan, last year's NL ROY in the supplemental round in 2006. While Coghlan was still available, the Sox drafted OFer Jason Place, who OPS'd a modest .738 last year in Portland, and is OPS'ing under .500 this year.

 

The checkbook can only bail out Theo so many times. Thanks to his trendy defense first strategy this year, he's going to have to trade for a bat now, and the price could be the few remaining prospects in the system.

 

Nathan was acquired through trade. Coghlan is not proven and is sucking. Minnesota pitchers play in the AL Central, not the AL East. Marlins play in the AL East and keep trading away talent for talent, and also have a favorable draft position. Host of reasons why mentioning teams in weaker divisions is intellectually dishonest.

[TedWilliams101]

How about we compare the Twins drafts to the Red Sox draft since 2000:

 

2000:

Twins (31) - Aaron Heilman, didn't sign and compensation pick

Twins (342) - Jason Kubel

 

Red Sox (62) - Manny Delcarmen

Red Sox (332) - Freddie Sanchez

Red Sox (872) - Kason Gabbard

 

2001:

Twins: (1) - Joe Mauer

(77) - Jose Morales

(377) - Kevin Cameron

(857) - Nick Blackburn

 

Red Sox: (48) - Kelly Shoppach (note, Boston didn't have a 1st round pick - Ramirez)

(243) - Kevin Youkilis

 

2002:

Twins: (20) - Denard Span

(61) - Jesse Crain

(152) - Clete Thomas

(182) - Pat Nesheck

(242) - Adam Lind

(332) - Evan Meek

 

Red Sox (57) - Jon Lester (Didn't have a 1st round pick - Damon)

(238) - Brandon Moss

(1342) - Brian Banister

 

2003:

Twins: (58) Scott Baker

 

Red Sox: (17) - David Murphy

(32) - Matt Murton (supplement pick)

(114) - Papelbon

 

2004:

Twins: (22) Glen Perkins

(481) Matt Tolbert

Note - Twins had 4 comp/supp picks in the 1st round. 5 first round picks, not a single real hit.

 

Red Sox: (65) Dustin Pedroia (No first round pick - Foulke)

(185) Cla Meredith

 

2005:

Twins: (25) Matt Garza

(73) Kevin Slowey

(84) Brian Duensing

 

Red Sox: (23) Jacoby Ellsbury

(42) Clay Buchholz

(45) Jed Lowrie

(47) Michael Bowden

Note: 4 comp/supp picks in the 1st round. 5 picks, 2 hits, 2 prospects, 1 tbd

 

2006:

Red Sox: (28) Daniel Bard

(71) Justin Masterson

(83) Aaron Bates

 

2010 Top MLB prospects:

Twins:

18 - Aron Hicks, OF

49 - Kyle Gibson, RHP

61 - Ben Revere, OF

62 - Miguel Sano, SS

94 - Wilson Ramos, C

174 - Deolis Guerra, RHP

183 - Danny Valencia, 3B

190 - Carlos Gutierrez, RHP

 

Red Sox:

20 - Casey Kelly, RHP

50 - Ryan Westmoreland, OF

53 - Michael Bowden, RHP

63 - Lars Anderson, 1B

69 - Josh Reddick, OF

101 - Ryan Kalish, OF

110 - Jose Iglesias, SS

150 - Reymond Fuentes, OF

153 - Anthony Rizzo, 1B

186 - Oscar Tejada, SS

195 - Junichi Tazawa, RHP

 

I'd say the Red Sox have done at least as good as the Twins, I'd argue they did better considering their far later draft positions and less picks.

[Dojji]

The Angels would be a better comp. Not as consistently low as we are, but in the playoffs more often than out of them over the last few years -- and while they develop their share of young players tyou'll note that that development tends to be erratic and unpredictable for them too.

 

The Twins are up and down, by design it would almost seem, and they don't build as much from the draft as you'd think. Yeah, most of their stars are homegrown, for certain values of "homegrown." But their franchise player is literally a #1 overall pick, which Boston will *never* have, at least one devoutly hopes not.

 

Basically they play the small market cycles, and try to use clever drafting, good trades and a consistent strategy to force the peaks to be bigger than the vallieys. Since they're a mid market team playing like a small market, they do spend money to keep their players a bit longer, but I can't recall the last time the Twins really spent big on FA -- they just swan dive into the early picks for awhile instead so they don't have to -- thus, Mauer being a Twin rather than a Royal or a Ray.

[Dipre]

 

I'd say the Red Sox have done at least as good as the Twins, I'd argue they did better considering their far later draft positions and less picks.

 

But that's absurd! Draft position is not related to the quality of your draft, even if you have Evan Longoria and David Price on your team!

[Keeper]

Let's not give the Twins' FO too much credit. They gave away Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett for almost nothing. I'm sorry, but Delmon Young has to be considered a bust at this point. So far, they've also got nothing in return for Johan Santana.

[TedWilliams101]

Speaking of the Rays, here's how their team came to be:

P:

Matt Garza - traded from Min

James Shields - 16th round of 2000 draft

David Price - 1st overall pick of the 2007 draft

Wade Davis - 3rd round of 2004 draft

Jeff Niemann - 4th overall pick of the 2004 draft

Rafael Soriano - traded from Seattle

Lance Cormier - traded from Arizona

Grand Ballfour - traded from Milwaukee

Dan Wheeler - 34 round of 1996 draft

Randy Choate - FA signing

 

Position players:

Dioner Navarro - traded from LAD

Carlos Pena - traded from Bos

Sean Rodriguez - traded from LAA

Jason Bartlett - traded from Min

Carl Crawford - 2nd round of 1999 draft

B.J. Upton - 2nd overall pick of 2002 draft

Evan Longoria - 3rd overall pick of 2006 draft

Ben Zobrist - traded from Hou

Willy Aybar - traded from Altanta

Pat Burrell - FA signing

Reid Brignac - 2nd round of 2004 draft

Gabe Kapler - FA signing

Kelly Shoppach - traded from Cleveland

John Jaso - 12 round of 2003 draft

 

Notice something here? Their top players are almost all top 5 draft picks or were top 10 draft picks they traded for. They got lucky on several players (Pena, Zobrist, etc) and that has really helped.

 

How did they assemble this team? Rebuilding mode. They knew they were bad, so they traded their best players for top prospects. After a few years, they were able to put together all those prospects they acquired and the high (top 5) draft picks they used to form this current team. Since they were successful last year, they were able to trade Kazmir and sign a couple free agents. This approach will ONLY work if you have complete retooling years. It means have several bad seasons. This is the approach you take ONLY if you can't compete or the core of your team is about to be gone and you can't slowly rebuild each year and stay competitive.

 

The Red Sox have the luxury of never having to go through rebuilding years. They can spend money to replace players and even out the effects of drafting in the late rounds. The difference between our teams is that the Rays have to trade away their best players when they get the highest return while we can keep them and just buy another player later down the road.

 

The real point of this though is to show that the Rays team is NOT just built up of their amazing draft picks. Their roster looks very normal, their best homegrown players are top 5 type draftees, their good to serviceable homegrown players are early to late round draftees, and their other players were acquired by trading away their top veteran players. They aren't loaded with amazing round 3+ draft picks like some people claim.

[Dipre]

Those 3+ round picks mentioned in the thread are their top prospects, and that bunch seems to automatically project to make the Majors or be succesful in the Majors. Interesting.

[TedWilliams101]

Those 3+ round picks mentioned in the thread are their top prospects' date=' and that bunch seems to automatically project to make the Majors or be succesful in the Majors. Interesting.[/quote']

 

I was referring mainly to Sheilds, Wheeler, etc. As for the prospects, they are prospects. Some turn out great, some average, some terrible. I put more stock into their proven players (Upton, Longoria, etc). My point was that they have acquired a lot of their players/talent from trading away their vets.

 

As for their prospects, I'll take our rotation and team over the Rays. Not only do the Rays have a small window (since I doubt they will be able to pay all these players when their rookie contracts run out), but they have financial restrictions. I'd take our current rotation over theirs and I'm not worried about the future as we will have plenty of pitching prospects ready when Beckett and Lackey leave and if all else fails, we have the money to go after the top free agents. Same thing with our lineup, although we may end up lacking power if things don't go right.

[jacksonianmarch]

I think the Rays are gonna be a thorn in the side of the AL East for awhile. Even with Pena and Crawford gone, the lineup will get Desmond Jenning, Tim Beckham, and Sean Rodriguez into every day roles, 3 guys with incredible futures. They have the rotation from hell, which only projects to get better. Regardless, I think the Rays need a new ballpark that doesnt totally suck and a 5-6 yr run of sustained success to garner fans. Their financial restrictions are mostly based on their s*** fanbase. Most of your Tampa area fans are Yankee fans from their long run in Tampa for ST. The franchise might actually benefit from a move, maybe to Las Vegas or to the Carolinas somewhere.

[a700hitter]

Five games under .500 at thirteen games into the season and John Henry sees cause for concern. That's good enough for me.

 

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2010/04/20/high_anxiety_as_even_red_sox_owner_henry_shows_concern/

[a700hitter]

Sign Jermaine Dye to give the offense a shot in the arm. Move Ellsbury back to CF and throw Hermida back on the Marlins garbage dump. This would have an immediate positive impact.

[rhet]

Five games under .500 at thirteen games into the season and John Henry sees cause for concern. That's good enough for me.

 

http://mobile.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2010/04/20/high_anxiety_as_even_red_sox_owner_henry_shows_concern/

 

Somebody should tell John Henry it's April 20th for crissakes! Way too early for such a knee-jerk reaction. C'mon, these games don't even count! Gotta wait til the ASB or trading deadline before making such an assessment.

[Dipre]

Somebody should tell John Henry it's April 20th for crissakes! Way too early for such a knee-jerk reaction. C'mon' date=' these games don't even count! Gotta wait til the ASB or trading deadline before making such an assessment.[/quote']

 

Just sent him an e-mail. Told him he needs to stop hanging out with you.

[PWNdroia]

Somebody should tell John Henry it's April 20th for crissakes! Way too early for such a knee-jerk reaction. C'mon' date=' these games don't even count! Gotta wait til the ASB or trading deadline before making such an assessment.[/quote']

 

Umm... these games DO matter. Every game does.

[Dipre]

Umm... these games DO matter. Every game does.

 

Wow. Very informative. I had no idea.

[PWNdroia]

Wow. Very informative. I had no idea.

 

Well, now you do.