Doubront joins line of Sox pitching prospects.

[NateGrey]

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PORT CHARLOTTE, Fla. – Add one more to the ranks of both Red Sox pitching prospects and rotation options.

 

A year ago, in his first big league camp, Felix Doubront was sent to the minors in the first wave of spring training cuts. That came as no surprise: he had been added to the 40-man roster the previous winter at the young age of 21, and had spent just four games at the High-A level.

 

This year, the left-hander outlasted the first group of players who were sent back to the minor league complex on Sunday. Doubront has been among the more impressive young pitchers in big-league camp this spring, having fired three shutout innings against the Tampa Bay Rays on Tuesday to extend his scoreless innings streak to seven in Grapefruit League games.

 

“Last year, he was the first-cut-of-the-camp guy,” said Red Sox advance scout Mike Cather, Doubront’s pitching coach at Double-A Portland last year. “This year, he belongs in the locker room.”

 

Doubront has flown more or less under the radar of Sox pitching prospects. Baseball America gave him a relatively modest ranking as the No. 18 prospect in the system. But he has shown the potential for a promising future this spring, something that continued with his outing against the Rays.

 

The 22-year-old allowed one hit and one walk to the Rays while striking out one. The left-hander worked quickly and kept the ball on the ground, showing an ability to leverage his fastball down in the strike zone while adding in an impressive changeup that proved tough on right-handers. It continued a solid body of work that has caught the attention of members of the Sox staff this spring.

 

The sturdy left-hander has struck out four, walked two and allowed three hits in his seven innings this spring. Also noteworthy: Doubront has recorded nearly twice as many outs by groundball (11) as he has by fly out (6).

 

“He’s an outstanding starting pitching prospect,” Sox pitching coach John Farrell had said prior to the outing. “He’s done a great job of not only working ahead in the count, but getting outs early and getting outs with his fastball. We always feel that if you can get outs with your fastball on the ground, it’s a great sign for young pitchers attacking major league hitters.”

 

This is the second straight spring in which the young left-hander, signed out of Venezuela for approximately $150,000 in 2004, has made an impression in big league camp. Last year, Doubront’s fastball velocity picked up, typically running from 90-93 mph and ticking up as high as 94 in camp, showing more power than he had before in his career.

 

This year, he fastball velocity is roughly the same, while his curveball (an inconsistent pitch that shows the potential to be an average big league offering) has showed improvement.

 

“He’s always had a great changeup. Since he was 18, 19 years old, people have said he had a major league changeup,” said Mike Cather, Doubont’s pitching coach at Double-A Portland last year who is now serving as an advance scout for the Red Sox. “To me, the curveball is still inconsistent, but he’s starting to show flashes that he gets it. That’s a really huge sign. He can show an average curveball. Now, it’s about finding it when he wants to go to it.”

 

In 2009, Doubront finished second among qualifying pitchers in the Double-A Eastern League with a 3.35 ERA, and ranked fourth among league starters with 7.5 strikeouts per nine innings. Opponents hit just .255 against him, as Doubront proved equally adept against lefties (.255) and righties (.256).

 

One game stood out as a turning point in his year. For much of the first half, Cather had tried to encourage Doubront to attack the strike zone, since high pitch count were responsible for his inability to get deep into contests.

 

On July 22, Doubront responded, throwing a complete-game, seven-inning shutout against the Twins’ Double-A team while striking out a career-high 10. Though that New Britain team was known as a good fastball-hitting club, Doubront succeeded by throwing – by Cather’s estimation – 90 percent fastballs.

 

“I had a conversation with him after that. He said, ‘Every time I thought about this guy being a good hitter, I thought aggressive, aggressive, aggressive,’” Cather recounted. “Man, it was great. It was self-taught on the hill to push him through it. That was the highlight of his year for me, because you could see that he just got it.”

 

As a left-handed starter, if Doubront can offer three pitches that are at least solid average, then he will position himself well for a future in a big league rotation. While he is all but locked into the rotation of Triple-A Pawtucket for the start of the year, his strong performance this spring suggests that an opportunity in the majors is coming ever closer.

 

“He’s been impressive,” said Farrell. “You see a guy respond favorably to this setting, whether it’s increased adrenaline, increased emotion, that is being channeled in a positive way. He’s not backed away from any challenges.”

 

 

 

 

 

 

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http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/alex-speier/2010/03/17/doubront-joins-line-sox-pitching-prospects

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Dojji]

In my mind, Doubront is perhaps our single best trading chip. He doesn't have a real chance to break into the Boston rotation, but there's a lot of other teams which would love very much to have a lefty with his skillset and would part with talent to get him.

 

While he probably doesn't have what it takes to headline a Gonzalez deal, he'd be useful in any deal for a lesser talent that fills a position of need, such as an LF/CF, 3B, SS or C, should the veterans occupying those positions prove not up to the task. The chances of failures at any one of these four positions is fairly small, but the chance of failure at AT LEAST ONE of these positions is non-negligible IMHO

 

Does anyone think this kid could gain just a little more velocity? He's alreay got good K rates, and command well above Lester's at the same level, if he's able to sit 92 and flash 95, he might just make something of himself.

 

BTW the forum summary truncated the title at "Doubront joins line of Sox." It gave me a turn, despite the non-sequitur English. For just about half a second I thought he'd been guaranteed a roster spot lol.

[jacksonianmarch]

Doubront isnt close to their best trading chip and he wouldnt get a lot in return until he proves he can do more in an extended period of time. Kelly, Bard, Buchholz, etc are way ahead of him in terms of tradeability.

[Dojji]

I don't count the guys Boston won't willingly trade as trading chips and I have no idea why you would. It'd be not unlike claiming Joba Chamberlain and Miguel Montero as New York's best trading chips.

[jacksonianmarch]

Its Jesus Montero and yes, they are the two biggest trade chips. Just because they arent on the block doesnt mean they wont move for the right return

[Dojji]

Yeah you're right, it's Jesus Montero, and my point stands because Boston has already declared these guys untouchable, therefore they are not trading chips. You're right that they could be traded if the return is big enough, but that's not the same thing as being a trading chips.

 

Of course, rooting for a team like you do that uses all of its prospects as "trading chips," I'm not surprised that you're confused as to the distinction.

[jacksonianmarch]

First of all, the Yankees had more home grown players on their roster than any team except the rockies last yr.

 

Secondly, the guys you don't want to trade are exactly the guys who are your best trade chips. If the player is expendable, then the return will be minimal. Casey Kelly, IMO, is the first guy who gets dealt in a deal that matters. Especially in any Adrian Gonzalez deal

[Dipre]

Casey Kelly's not going anywhere.

[Dojji]

Which apparently means he's our best trade piece.

[BoSox21]

I think it entirely depends on the depth we have in the farm at any particular position. If Doubront does continue to emerge, it makes a Casey Kelly more expendable. But any trading partner could have more of a "you want our best player so we want your best prospects" type of attitude.

[italstallianion]

I think it entirely depends on the depth we have in the farm at any particular position. If Doubront does continue to emerge' date=' it makes a Casey Kelly more expendable. But any trading partner could have more of a "you want our best player so we want your best prospects" type of attitude.[/quote']

 

 

 

And you know that is exactly how Hoyer in San Diego feels considering he knows our farm system better than we do. The fact is, we're not going to get a top line player without giving up at least one top prospect. The filler in the deal is what gets negotiated. If we could get Gonzalez without giving up Kelly or Westmoreland (before surgery level) then somebody in San Diego would get fired.

[Dojji]

I only about half agree. If you think you've got the leverage to hold out for the top guys, sure, go for it, but you'd better be right. Insisting on only the best players from the other team's system is the mistake the Twins made in the Santana deal. A nice package of the better players Boston could have offered them without giving up on Lester, Ellsbury and Buchholz would have been a lot better than what they wound up with.

[italstallianion]

I only about half agree. If you think you've got the leverage to hold out for the top guys' date=' sure, go for it, but you'd better be right. Insisting on only the best players from the other team's system is the mistake the Twins made in the Santana deal. A nice package of the better players Boston could have offered them without giving up on Lester, Ellsbury and Buchholz would have been a lot better than what they wound up with.[/quote']

 

 

I didn't say that San Diego should do what I said, I simply stated that San Diego would do it. Besides, since when was the Padres known as a fiscally sound franchise? Seriously, I'd buy stock in Enron before buying stock in the Padres.

[Dojji]

Doubront has opened some eyes in Pawtucket this year. He's currently posting a 1.05 ERA (!) in AAA in the 4 starts following his promotion

 

It's not enough yet to be 100% comfortable promoting the kid, but he definitely looks good. A lot of teams, maybe half of them, would be talking about when, not whether, Doubront would join the rotation, and giving the ETA in months rather than years IMHO.

 

I think Doubront is basically ready. Not that he has nothing left to learn in the minors, but he can learn the rest in the bigs if he's needed. The kid just looks good, and I don't have any trouble saying I think he could be average in the big leagues right now.

[Keeper]

Dojji, 4 starts in AAA where he's been good, yes, but where he's also averaging just under 4 1/3 innings per start. His WHIP was also unimpressive in AA this year in a much larger sample size.

 

That said, I could see him being used in the bullpen if the Sox need a southpaw.

[Dojji]

1.30 WHIP isn't all bad and the sample size dilutes the concern. Lester's WHIP was worse for most of his minor league career -- not really a fair comparison since Lester was promoted based on talent as much as performance but nonetheless...

 

I also would like to see Doubront tried first in the pen, but in the Justin Masterson sense of the term -- put him in the pen but don't restrict him to just that forever.

[Palodios]

Dojji, 4 starts in AAA where he's been good, yes, but where he's also averaging just under 4 1/3 innings per start. His WHIP was also unimpressive in AA this year in a much larger sample size.

 

That said, I could see him being used in the bullpen if the Sox need a southpaw.

 

His first game, he only pitching one inning. Two strikeouts, 0.00 whip. Using that in his average IP is twisting statistics to make him look bad. In the last three games, he's thrown 87, 89 and 68 pitches, to 5+ inning starts. He still needs to work on endurance, but if he can repeat those results, he'll be averaging 6+ innings per start easy.

[Palodios]

1.30 WHIP isn't all bad and the sample size dilutes the concern. Lester's WHIP was worse for most of his minor league career -- not really a fair comparison since Lester was promoted based on talent as much as performance but nonetheless...

 

I also would like to see Doubront tried first in the pen, but in the Justin Masterson sense of the term -- put him in the pen but don't restrict him to just that forever.

 

Dice-k will miss atleast one more start. I'd say hell with it, give him one game in the majors to see what he's got.

[ORS]

Yeah, it's not a good idea to use the MiLB inning totals for young pitchers to find an IP/S average. Their pitch counts are pretty firm game limits, and a low relative to MLB pitchers. That said, if he's only pitching 70-85 pitches per start right now, he's not stretched out enough to be ready for the big club, so let him keep developing.

[Keeper]

His first game' date=' he only pitching one inning. Two strikeouts, 0.00 whip. Using that in his average IP is twisting statistics to make him look bad. In the last three games, he's thrown 87, 89 and 68 pitches, to 5+ inning starts. He still needs to work on endurance, but if he can repeat those results, he'll be averaging 6+ innings per start easy.[/quote']

 

I wasn't deliberately trying to distort the stats; I did not know he only pitched 1 inning in his 1st start. I don't know enough about him to say he could easily average 6+ innings, and my guess is neither do you.

[Palodios]

I wasn't deliberately trying to distort the stats; I did not know he only pitched 1 inning in his 1st start. I don't know enough about him to say he could easily average 6+ innings' date=' and my guess is neither do you.[/quote']

 

Those are fighting words. I'm giving the player the benefit of the doubt. You are not.

[Keeper]

Giving him the benefit of the doubt or making an assumption based on no empirical evidence?

[Palodios]

He dominated in the winter league. He dominated in Portland. Now he's untouchable in Pawtucket. What more evidence do you need?

[Keeper]

You are conflating dominance with the ability to pitch deep into games.

[Palodios]

He's a young kid. Innings are something that comes with time. What, do you think he's just never going to pitch more than 80 pitches?

[Keeper]

I'm just saying you are making an assumption that he can pitch deep into games solely based on the fact that he's in the Red Sox organization and you want it to be true.

[Dipre]

Holy s***, how the f*** did this turn into an argument?

 

No one can have a polished opinion on the kid due to so many outside factors affecting the amount of innings he has pitched (pitch counts, innings limit, etc etc etc)

 

That being said, if he hasn't thrown even nearly 100 pitches in a game yet, he's not sufficiently stretched to do so in MLB, but that could change in the next couple of weeks.

[jacksonianmarch]

He's not the answer right now. He is turning into a legitimate prospect, but he still need to prove he can go deeper into games and be more economical in the minors. His AA numbers were good, but his ERA was much better than his 1.3 WHIP indicated. He probably should have been in the mid 3's instead of the mid 2's. In AAA, he's been good, but the IP has been his issue. Wait till they get him up to 110 pitches or so before you jump on the bandwagon for immediate callup. Sounds like Beckett will be back before Doubront will be stretched out

[ORS]

He's not the answer right now. He is turning into a legitimate prospect' date=' but he still need to prove he can go deeper into games and be more economical in the minors. His AA numbers were good, but his ERA was much better than his 1.3 WHIP indicated. [b']He probably should have been in the mid 3's instead of the mid 2's. In AAA, he's been good, but the IP has been his issue[/b]. Wait till they get him up to 110 pitches or so before you jump on the bandwagon for immediate callup. Sounds like Beckett will be back before Doubront will be stretched out

How many times are you going to pull this from your ass and get called on it? FIP was created for what a pitcher's era "should" have been. Use it. It's free at thehardballtimes and fangraphs for MLB players, and you can find it for MiLB players at minorleaguesplits.com. Or, you could calculate it yourself, but for f***s sake, do something more than lazy guessing if you are going to try and talk intelligently about what something "should" have been.

 

His FIP has been 2.98 in AA, and 2.38 in AAA.

[Dipre]

^Lol owned.