Predicting the 2010 Standings

[Lester82]

On another topic, the starting staffs of Boston, NYY.... interesting what Verducci said on WEEI in Boston. I don't agree with him, but he favors the Yankees staff

 

http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2010/03/19/tom-verducci-on-dc-yanks-have-rotation-edge-on-sox/

[Lester82]

He also said the Rays look like the best team training here in Florida of the Sox, Yanks etc.

[Dojji]

On another topic, the starting staffs of Boston, NYY.... interesting what Verducci said on WEEI in Boston. I don't agree with him, but he favors the Yankees staff

 

I can't think why. Lester's nearly a match for Sabathia and after Sabathia the quality of the NYY staff goes way down, unless you think Vazquez' resurrection last year is sustainable.

[Lester82]

I can't think why. Lester's nearly a match for Sabathia and after Sabathia the quality of the NYY staff goes way down' date=' unless you think Vazquez' resurrection last year is sustainable.[/quote']

 

I know.

 

I really respect Verducci, but simply disagree with him on saying the Yankees have the edge in rotations.

[Dipre]

Because of the Matsuzaka situation, i find logic in Verducci's statement, but i also find it illogical to expect Vasquez to really be a difference maker.

[msubulldogs21]

I also would not have minded Tulowitzski here either

 

You know, I wouldn't mind seeing Ryan Braun in LF and Joe Mauer behind the plate but some things just aren't possible. Tulo is the face of the Rockies franchise. He's going to be there for a long, long time.

 

I like how you have actual facts in front of your face and you dismiss them as if they are imaginary based on what you think is going to happen this year. Please remove your head from the sand and we might be able to discuss things rationally.

[jacksonianmarch]

Because of the Matsuzaka situation' date=' i find logic in Verducci's statement, but i also find it illogical to expect Vasquez to really be a difference maker.[/quote']

 

You find it illogical to expect Vazquez to be a difference maker? I thought you were a stat based guy?

[jacksonianmarch]

Just read everything he said, and I think he's spot on here.

 

First of all, the sox lack versatility in their lineup and I agree that power righties will give them trouble. Plus, with the de-emphasis on holding runners and the poor arms of the catchers, I dont see how a sox-rays matchup isnt a nightmare for Boston.

[Dojji]

You find it illogical to expect Vazquez to be a difference maker? I thought you were a stat based guy?

 

Sure, and the biggest stats when dealing with Vazquez are h/9 (generally quite high), hr/9 (legendarily high) and flyout rate (which took an unsustainable dip last year -- the single biggest reason for the uptick in his performance).

 

As a righthanded power pitcher in Yankee Stadium, the already fly ball prone, home run prone Vazquez will really have to pitch brilliantly to avoid giving up 35-40 dings this year. Even though he's not really bad against lefties, he'll give up fly balls and the fly balls off the bat of lefthanders will disappear over the wall. A lot.

[jacksonianmarch]

This is exactly why Verducci is right and some people on this site arent.

 

#1- Javier Vazquez is coming off a great season. A season of ace level performance where his ERA was under 3, and he put up ANOTHER 200+IP and 200+K season. It isnt like this guy has just languished in mediocrity and now is expected to be great.

 

#2- Javier Vazquez is going to be the #4 starter. A guy who has shown throughout his career that he is as durable as anyone.

 

#3- The Yankees had 4 pitchers make 31+ starts last yr, and they are all back, PLUS Vazquez.

 

Lets put a minimum out there. Lets say that Vazquez puts up 200+IP, 200+K's and a 4.50ERA. Would that not be a massive upgrade? This is the problem here. Everyone seems to think that Vazquez needs to have an ERA under 3 to be considered GREAT for the Yankees. He doesnt. He needs to take the bump every 5th day and give us 6IP 3ER and 6K per night. I'll take that. Lets just have a game here. Just some prediction for the 2010 season

 

1. CC Sabathia- 34 starts 20-7 3.20ERA 230IP 200K

2. A.J. Burnett- 32 starts 15-9 4.00ERA 200IP 210K

3. Andy Pettitte- 32 starts 15-11 4.40ERA 190IP 160K

4. Javier Vazquez- 32 starts 17-11 4.50ERA 210IP 200K

 

Now, those numbers are not out of the realm of possibility at all. Actually, I think you can pretty much bank on CC, Andy and Vazquez for at least that level of production and AJ has shown 2 yrs running that he has been durable. Now, tell me any other team out there with a more durable, more productive starting 4. Cmon, go ahead. You cannot

 

Now, Boston's rotation has the POTENTIAL to give better numbers assuming Lackey sheds his recent injury history, Beckett doesnt go down again late in the season, Buchholz shows he can be durable and effective in the bigs, and DiceK shows he can take the mound and be effective. But, those are a lot of questionmarks, and exactly the reason why I think Wakefield was retained on a two yr deal.

 

So, the sox rotation may have the potential to surpass the Yankee rotation, but the durability and the effectiveness in the top 4 of the Yankee rotation is EXACTLY why Verducci is right. Schilling said it best, the team that will win is the team that will get the most starts out of their top 5. And right now, you have to say that the edge in that category is NY.

[Dipre]

I love how Jacko ignores everything that may harm his argument.

 

1)NL East.

 

2) Home-Run supressing stadium.

 

To:

 

1) AL East.

 

2) Home-Run inducing stadium.

 

It's not rocket-science.

[Palodios]

I love how Jacko ignores everything that may harm his argument.

 

1)NL East.

 

2) Home-Run supressing stadium.

 

To:

 

1) AL East.

 

2) Home-Run inducing stadium.

 

It's not rocket-science.

 

Did you even read his post? He said even with a 4.50 era, a huge 1.50 bump from last year's stats, he'll still make a big difference for the yankees because of reliability. Will more runs mean fewer innings? sure, but he's still a dependable pitcher capable of better than average pitching.

[Dojji]

Since the guy opposite Vazquez in the rotation comparison is either Josh Beckett or John Lackey, that point is relatively meaningless because it is not in the perspective of the conversation we're actually having.

 

Sabathia > Lester

Vazquez/Burnett

Burnett/Vazquez

Joba = Buchholz

Pettitte > Wakefield/Daisuke

 

The top and bottom are about equal but the Yankees really lose out in high end depth. They're a "one ace and everyone else" team, like Boston in the first few years of last decade, and the Red Sox as ideally constructed are a "5 upper middle tier pitchers" team, like the Yankees were durng their dynasty years.

[Dipre]

Did you even read his post? He said even with a 4.50 era' date=' a huge 1.50 bump from last year's stats, he'll still make a big difference for the yankees because of reliability. Will more runs mean fewer innings? sure, but he's still a dependable pitcher capable of better than average pitching.[/quote']

 

It was in response to his "I thought you were a stat-based guy" post, defender of Jacko.

 

I've acnowledged several times Vasquez is what he is. A guy who will give you innings and K's, but will give up lots of homers and XBH.

 

When you talk of a "Difference maker" (which was my initial statement) you're not talking of a guy giving you a 4.50 ERA.

 

Context please.

[Dipre]

It's really a matter of when Daisuke's ready to pitch and how he pitches, because in the meantime, he's really hurt our depth.

[Palodios]

His arguement still stands. 6 IP and 3 ER with that lineup will win games. And winning games makes a difference.

[Dipre]

You'd have to actually see him pitch to see which version of Vasquez they're getting.

 

Neither the 2004 NYY, or the 2006 and 2008 CHW got a lot of 6 ip, 3 ER performances from Vasquez.

 

By your theory, Chad Gaudin could help win quite a bit of ballgames as well.

 

Not to mention that's not actually relevant to the discussion we're having, which is a rotation-to-rotation comparison.

[Lester82]

....*Shocker* that Jacko went giddy about Tom Verducci's "spot-on!" favoring of the Yankees starting rotation.

 

Btw, Tom Verducci picks the Yankees seemingly every year in the AL East. I like him, but the SI baseball issue that he helps do each year, rarely picks anyone but the Yankees to finish first in the AL East. Not that it's unusual to see a team with the Yankees talent + resources finish 1st. But, I was most puzzled when Verducci was picking the Yankees to finish ahead of Boston in 2007. I just didn't see going into 2007 how the Yankees had a better club than Boston's.

 

Verducci then said the Red Sox would have trouble repeating the next season, so he was predicting the Yankees would finish ahead of them in '08. He basically said it was the Year-After Effect for W.S.-winning teams and that Boston would have trouble. So he picked NYY over Boston in '08. I notice he isn't talking about the 'year-after effect' for the 2010 Yankees and all the innings that oldman Pettitte had to log, and even younger guys like CC. It's just tough for pitching staffs coming off long runs in the playoffs + the number of starts that Pettitte, CC, and Burnett made on short rest towards the end.

[riverside sluggers]

Cmon now the Yankees rotation will be healthy for the whole season and the 1-4 starters will pitch at least a combined 800 innings!!

[diony]

 

When you talk of a "Difference maker" (which was my initial statement) you're not talking of a guy giving you a 4.50 ERA.

 

Context please.

 

He's a difference maker considering the "aces" he's replacing.

[Dipre]

He's a difference maker considering the "aces" he's replacing.

 

Actually looking at it from this POV, you would be correct.

[PWNdroia]

You'd have to actually see him pitch to see which version of Vasquez they're getting.

 

Neither the 2004 NYY, or the 2006 and 2008 CHW got a lot of 6 ip, 3 ER performances from Vasquez.

 

By your theory, Chad Gaudin could help win quite a bit of ballgames as well.

 

Not to mention that's not actually relevant to the discussion we're having, which is a rotation-to-rotation comparison.

 

I agree that I think Vazquez won't be that great.

[Dipre]

I agree that I think Vazquez won't be that great.

 

Best post you have made in this site.

[jacksonianmarch]

Dipre, just so I can get this out there, please give me a prediction for Vazquez in 2010. Go for it.

[Dipre]

It's not about my prediction.

 

I already gave my prediction in that loooooooong analysis of Vasquez i made which you apparently skimmed through.

 

Now, putting it into context, let me explain to you what i mean by "Difference maker":

 

A guy with a 4.50 ERA is not a "difference maker" in a starting rotation, by that account, i don't consider Matsuzaka or Wakefield "Difference-makers" either.

 

Now i have a question, if the Sox and Yankees meet in the playoffs (and they just might), which do you like better? (Assuming everyone healthy).

 

Lester-Beckett-Lackey-Bucholz or Sabby-Burnett-Pettite-Vasquez.

 

Honest answer plz.

[PWNdroia]

Best post you have made in this site.

Thanks, I appreciate it. I completely agree with Dipre on Vazquez. I can't wait until Yankee fans see him fail. They should have kept Melky Cabrera.

[italstallianion]

Then again we were all counting on AJ Burnett to make his usual lengthy vacation on the DL and by some act of God he stayed healthy all year. I guess that was the first signal that God rigged it to be the Yankee's year.

[PWNdroia]

Then again we were all counting on AJ Burnett to make his usual lengthy vacation on the DL and by some act of God he stayed healthy all year. I guess that was the first signal that God rigged it to be the Yankee's year.

 

Still, Yankees have the offense. Even if their pitching goes down, they'll have offense to keep them in the game. The Sox don't have this.

[TheMino007]

I don't see Vasquez fairing well in NY this time in NY, just like his first stint went or when he pitches in the AL in general. He'll strike out a lot of guys, but he gives up a lot of HR's and he is playing in the ultimate hitters park. The point was brought up that 4 Yankees starters made 30+ starts last year, well thats not gonna happen again. Burnett will be on the DL like he does every year but last year, Pettitte is older, and maybe not this year, but someday CC will break down. As for Scutaro, he's an average player coming off a career year. For a stop gap solution, I don't mind. He'll provide stability at the SS position, something we haven't had in a while.

[jacksonianmarch]

It's not about my prediction.

 

I already gave my prediction in that loooooooong analysis of Vasquez i made which you apparently skimmed through.

 

Now, putting it into context, let me explain to you what i mean by "Difference maker":

 

A guy with a 4.50 ERA is not a "difference maker" in a starting rotation, by that account, i don't consider Matsuzaka or Wakefield "Difference-makers" either.

 

Now i have a question, if the Sox and Yankees meet in the playoffs (and they just might), which do you like better? (Assuming everyone healthy).

 

Lester-Beckett-Lackey-Bucholz or Sabby-Burnett-Pettite-Vasquez.

 

Honest answer plz.

 

This is just stupid. Somehow, he needs to meet your definition of a "difference-maker." A difference maker, by definition, makes a difference. Adding a guy who can throw 200IP, K 200+ guys and an ERA of 4.5 to a rotation that had a rotating roation spot which averaged less than 5IP and had an ERA over 6 makes a difference.

 

In terms of which rotation I would take, all healthy and all living up to their career norms, I call it a wash. 1 goes to NY. 4 goes to NY. 2 and 3 go to Boston. But you also have the caveat that Buchholz is entering his first full season as a starter and Beckett has been hurt entering the playoffs two seasons in a row. The entire point is that he gives innings, gives power AND is durable. You can say that about 3 guys definitely in the Yankee rotation with a guy who is getting toward dependable in Burnett since he's been healthy 2 yrs in a row. While you have Beckett and Lackey who have been injured at times over the past 2 yrs, then Buchholz who is unpredictable and a frequently injured DiceK and you see the point here.