Have the Red Sox improved or regressed?

[Dipre]

The union is actually starting to take action against teams receiving RS money who aren't spending it on roster. They filed something or other against the Marlins this offseason to that effect. I wouldn't be surprised if a few signings were anounced in the near future just to mollify the MLBPA. Adgon is a good candidate.

 

I think Gonzales hits the FA market. Why take a "hometown discount" when you can both get paid a lot more money, and get the hell out of Petco.

[Palodios]

Didn't he sign a hometown contract last time around?

[Dipre]

Didn't he sign a hometown contract last time around?

 

That's the point.

 

Why would he do it again?

 

Last time he forsake money for security, but this time, he'll hit the FA market in before he's 30, and if he keeps putting up numbers like the last couple of years, he'll not only be able to get a massive contract, but also get out of that horrible stadium and play for a contender.

[jacksonianmarch]

Its always difficult to assess how a guy like Gonzalez is gonna move especially since he already took a hometowner once. That being said, guys who start getting some experience behind them but havent tasted success will crave it. If the Padres kids grow up a little next yr and the Pads are around the .500 range, then I bet they could get something done. If the Pads suck again, then I bet Adrian is beating his head against a wall trying to get out of there. My bet is that he never reaches FA due to a trade and a contract extension

[riverside sluggers]

This year its a very good bet that they could end up being the worst team in baseball. The latest he will be a Padre, is the 2011 trade deadline IMO

[riverside sluggers]

Barring a significant injury to Beltre' date=' Youkilis, or Ortiz it's not going to happen. There's simply no room for him on the roster.[/quote']

 

If they have a chance at the deadline to get him, they will make the move. And its not set in stone that Ortiz will be a force this coming season

[yankees228]

On this subject of defense, it has to help the pitching. And I think the Red Sox vs Yankees struggle over the years has always been about pitching. That was true in the 40s and early 50s when NY had the pitching advantage, and also the 2000 decade, when the Red Sox had the pitching advantage--except last year when the Yankees signed the top two FA starters and the Red Sox starting pitching took a dive--with Dice-K, Penny, Smoltz and a poor spring from Beckett and Lester. Wake saved them in the spring, but he is only a half-season pitcher these days.

 

I still can't figure out how they won 95 games. Their home record, obviously. They are tough to beat at home--with the small park, the soldout crowds, etc.

 

This year, barring injuries, they should be better. Their pitching should be much better. The lineup is deeper, and some of their pickups should benefit from Fenway , as Gammons implies in his predictions mentioned earlier.

 

The Yankees' pitching was hardly anything special last year. Consider the following...

 

-It was shaky to the point where they were forced to go with a three man rotation in the playoffs.

 

-Those three guys produced ERA+'s of 127, 106, and 103, one of the worst pitching staffs of a World Series winner in the history of baseball.

 

-Meanwhile, the Red Sox top three produced ERA+'s of 138, 122, and 111 (16 starts).

 

-The bottom of both team's pitching staffs were wildly inconsistent.

 

There was a reason many people, including many people on this site, felt that the Red Sox were better prepared to make a postseason run than the Yankees. The Yankees' starting pitching (with the exception of a few games) stepped up in the postseason, but in the regular season, the difference wasn't the starting pitching.

[jacksonianmarch]

The consistency of the offense and the developing consistency of the bullpen was the reason for our AL East title. Our offense continually gave us leads, and outside of April, when we handed those leads to the pen, we didnt give them up.

[Keeper]

If they have a chance at the deadline to get him' date=' they will make the move. And its not set in stone that Ortiz will be a force this coming season[/quote']

 

I think if they had wanted him that badly, they would have traded for him instead of getting Beltre. Hoyer was asking for a lot, but it could have got done, IMO. However, since Beltre will presumably only be here for a year, that leaves the door open for next offseason, assuming Gonzalez is still available.

 

I agree with you on Ortiz. If he gets off to another slow start and doesn't pick it up in June like he did in 2009, Theo shouldn't hesitate to give up on Ortiz and aggressively pursue Gonzalez.

[Lester82]

Just noticed this to bring back the topic of whether the Red Sox had improved or not...

 

http://news.bostonherald.com/sports/columnists/view/20100129red_sox_uzr__drs__wait_till_next_year/srvc=home&position=also

 

Yikes, Ron Borges.

[Imperial59]

Just noticed this to bring back the topic of whether the Red Sox had improved or not...

 

http://news.bostonherald.com/sports/columnists/view/20100129red_sox_uzr__drs__wait_till_next_year/srvc=home&position=also

 

Yikes, Ron Borges.

 

I stopped reading after this:

 

According to Epstein, the Red Sox will be competitive through the use of kung fu baseball, the art of winning without scoring. They will be so flawless in the field that opponents will simply forfeit, their inability to penetrate the Steel Curtain Defense so frustrating that the other side simply resigns. Sort of like playing Bobby Fischer in chess.

 

The Red Sox scored the third most runs in baseball last year by more than a 50 year margin. Anyone who doesn't think they're going to be one of the best hitting teams in baseball next year is fooling themselves. Only this time around they'll also have some of the best defense and pitching in baseball.

 

We don't need to lead the league in runs scored when we're also a top pitching and defensive team.

[example1]

That article is a rant of epic proportions and doesn't seem very well thought-out.

[Imperial59]

That article is a rant of epic proportions and doesn't seem very well thought-out.

 

Yeah, to be honest it sounds like something the average guy in a bar who follows the Red Sox but really cares more about the Patriots or Celtics would say.

[Lester82]

Football writers tend to screw up when talking Red Sox, baseball. Since Borges is a football guy. (And man he hates Belichick). I know he's covered boxing as well.

[Imperial59]

Football writers tend to screw up when talking Red Sox' date=' baseball. Since Borges is a football guy. (And man he hates Belichick). I know he's covered boxing as well.[/quote']

 

I didn't know he was a football guy, but that would explain it. He very much sounded like a fan of another sport who was trying to make a judgment in a team he didn't understand very well.

[jacksonianmarch]

I think a lot of you guys are really blowing over the possibility that the offense takes a nose-dive here. You lose a guy like Bay, who was your biggest power threat and was your second best hitter by far and add in a 38 yr old CFer and a 3B who is coming off an injury plagued season that was absolutely and totally putrid.

Here's the lineup I think Theo puts out there

 

1. Ellsbury CF

2. Pedroia 2B

3. Martinez C

4. Youkilis 1B

5. Ortiz DH

6. Beltre 3B

7. Drew RF

8. Cameron CF

9. Scutaro SS

 

 

I like your top 4, but your #3 hitter really isnt a great #3 in terms of OPS

 

Ellsbury-Pedroia-VMart-Youkilis is still solid, even with VMart being a mid .800s OPS guy in a spot where a team like the sox should have a .900+ guy

 

Papi-Beltre in the 5-6 hole could be huge or could be a massive, gaping hole. You are expecting Papi to play above his prior season's performance where he looked done for half a season and then looked solid the rest of the way. And you have Beltre who did play 111 games last season and only mustered 8 homers and a sub .700OPS. These guys are gonna be the crux of the lineup IMO. And there is a very good chance that they will stumble

 

Drew-Cameron-Scutaro. Drew will do his OBP thing and be fine assuming he stays healthy, which is a very big concern. Cameron is a very good #8 hitter. Scutaro is a good #9 if he continues to his to the .780OPS from last yr, his career high. But if he reverts to the sub .700 guy he has been for half his career, then he could be a total offensive liability.

 

I like the sox depth of their lineup as 1-9 is gonna be a tough out (aside from the free swinging Beltre that is). But you have 2 guys in the middle of the order who are massive questionmarks, something that the sox havent seen in years.

[Mr Crunchy]

If my balls were on your chin...

Good points MJ, they've lost their best power hitter and replaced him with 2 men who are stellar defensively but offensively they've seen their best days I fear.

They need an offensive strategy that takes advantage of their speed.

You'll see more running, more hit and runs and more 1st to 3rds on a single than ever before.

However the 3run homer in the 6th inning to get you back in a game maybe elusive for us.

Its going to be difficult to see this team attempt small ball but I think in tight games we're going to have to consider this as a primary option, everyone on this club needs to learn how to bunt with the exception of Ortiz, he'd only hurt himself trying.

[Dojji]

Actually Ortiz is no stranger to bunting. He's done it from time to time to try to keep the overshift honest. I honestly think he should do it more often -- with the 3B playing shortstop there's a huge hole down the third base line if he can deaden it. And if he did it consistently, or tried it consistently, against the overshift he'd beat a few out and force the manager to think twice about giving him that much bunting room. If he could intimidate the overshift a little he'd probably get more honest hits for awhile.

 

Especially he should bunt with a lefty on the mound, since the pitcher is almost obliged to field bunts in an overshift, and the bunt play down the third base line is fairly awkward for an LHP to field.

[Plumpamania]

I think a lot of you guys are really blowing over the possibility that the offense takes a nose-dive here. You lose a guy like Bay, who was your biggest power threat and was your second best hitter by far and add in a 38 yr old CFer and a 3B who is coming off an injury plagued season that was absolutely and totally putrid.

Here's the lineup I think Theo puts out there

 

1. Ellsbury CF

2. Pedroia 2B

3. Martinez C

4. Youkilis 1B

5. Ortiz DH

6. Beltre 3B

7. Drew RF

8. Cameron CF

9. Scutaro SS

 

Glad Theo makes up the line ups..

 

I like your top 4, but your #3 hitter really isnt a great #3 in terms of OPS

 

Ellsbury-Pedroia-VMart-Youkilis is still solid, even with VMart being a mid .800s OPS guy in a spot where a team like the sox should have a .900+ guy

 

Let's see what VMart does with a better line up and a more hitter's park around him...

 

Papi-Beltre in the 5-6 hole could be huge or could be a massive, gaping hole. You are expecting Papi to play above his prior season's performance where he looked done for half a season and then looked solid the rest of the way. And you have Beltre who did play 111 games last season and only mustered 8 homers and a sub .700OPS. These guys are gonna be the crux of the lineup IMO. And there is a very good chance that they will stumble

 

Agreed, but I want to see you play baseball with a ruptured testicle and produce.

 

Drew-Cameron-Scutaro. Drew will do his OBP thing and be fine assuming he stays healthy, which is a very big concern. Cameron is a very good #8 hitter. Scutaro is a good #9 if he continues to his to the .780OPS from last yr, his career high. But if he reverts to the sub .700 guy he has been for half his career, then he could be a total offensive liability.

 

J.D. Drew was one of the best outfielders in baseball last year and he's still hitting seventh. I love that. 20+~ Homeruns out of our #8 slot. And Scutaro could be the best #9 hitter in baseball.

 

I like the sox depth of their lineup as 1-9 is gonna be a tough out (aside from the free swinging Beltre that is). But you have 2 guys in the middle of the order who are massive questionmarks, something that the sox havent seen in years.

 

If you want to talk about middle of the line up question marks, how about the 38 year old catcher who has missed significant time over the past few years. A second baseman who is streakier than any other hitter in baseball in terms of from year to year...and a DH who has more time on the DL than almost any other player. You replaced Damon with Randy Winn, who had the lowest OPS out of any regular OFer last year...

 

Yea...You got a great 1-4, I'm not personally sold on the rest of the line up...

[Spudboy]

But he's paid for hitting the ball over the fence.

[Mr Crunchy]

I saw Ortiz bunt in a game against the Angels in the summer of 2007, it didnt confuse me with Vince Coleman or Tommy Herr but he did get it down and far enough up the line where he got a hit out of it.

How that translates in the 9th inning of a tied game with a guy on 2nd and no one out is the issue at hand...As far as JD Drew being one of the best outfielders in the game?

His 135 games played were impressive, his 24/68/279 wasnt, his .389obp was, his 109k's werent.

Id like to see him more aggressive at the plate,his discipline is great to the point of hurting his stats.

Hes got to do better than that if we as a team are to be more successful,especially with the decline of Ortiz and Bays absense....I know many here feel RBI's are useless stats, well heres a case where they matter, sometimes a walk isnt as good as a hit,sometimes you need a double or a Hr or a single up the middle to score....I think this is his bust out year in Boston.

someone stick a hot poker up his ass or tell him how his wife chuggs dick for sport, get this guy fired up even if you gotta throw at him in batting practice....Hes capable of so much more with the gifts hes been blessed with, this is the 30/110/.290 year we've been desperatley waiting on.

[Dojji]

But he's paid for hitting the ball over the fence.

 

He's getting paid to produce offensively. HR's are part of that, but only part. If he invests in a few bunt singles, and it makes managers back off the overshift, that's a worthy investment of a few bunts where there might have been big swings, as he'll sacrifice one or two potential homers for maybe as many as 5-10 additional doubles.

 

Also, they only really overshift on Big Papi when there aren't lots of baserunners on, so in those situations he's still free to swing for the downs and has a better chance of something falling in if it doesn't work out.

 

Any time there's an LHP on the mound and nobody on, Ortiz should drop one down. He should do it until the infield has to stay put when there's a lefty on the mound. That way the managers get to choose -- the Lefty Specialist, or the Overshift. One or the other. But not both.

[Plumpamania]

From: http://www.sportsofboston.com/2009/10/23/in-defense-of-j-d-drew/

 

Red Sox General Manager, and erstwhile boy wonder, Theo Epstein graced Boston sports talk radio with his presence, and his opinions on Thursday. The results were interesting, to say the least. Among other things, Theo unequivocally defended his right fielder, David Jonathan “J.D.” Drew, and, in fact, referred to him as “one of the two or three most valuable outfielders in the league.” Judging by the responses of the callers, Red Sox Nation was not amused.

 

Drew is a polarizing figure, who draws the ire of fans for reasons both real and imagined. Essentially, the criticism of Drew boils down to three things: (1) he is vastly overpaid, (2) he doesn’t seem to care, and (3) he is injury prone. I will argue that only the third criticism is valid.

 

Drew’s Durability, Dollars, and Demeanor

Durability is not J.D. Drew’s strong suit. In eleven full seasons in the Major Leagues, he has never played more than 146 games. In three seasons in Boston, Drew has averaged 129 games played. He reminds me of another smooth, oft-injured Sox outfielder—Fred Lynn. When he is on the field, he is productive. He is not, however, going to remind anybody of Cal Ripken, Jr.

 

As for his demeanor, or the fact that he is “overpaid,” I don’t think they have any relevancy at all. Why should any of us care how much money he makes? We are not shareholders, so why does it matter how much of John Henry’s cash he deposits in his bank account? The Red Sox are among the wealthiest teams in baseball, so do not believe for one moment that Drew’s contract will prevent them from signing any, and I mean any, player they want to. What about high ticket prices, you say? I could write a whole piece on why ticket prices are not correlated in any way to team payroll, but I won’t—I promise. As for his demeanor, who cares what a player looks like. Players should be judged by their numbers, by their productivity, if you will.

 

Back, then, to his production, for a moment. In arguing his case for Drew, Theo stated, inter alia, that “primitive” baseball statistics such as batting average, home runs, and RBI are a poor judge of a player’s value. This is, in fact, the rub. To fans of a certain age—this author included—the value of a player was measured by the “back of his baseball card” numbers. It was only grudgingly that I accepted the superiority of the Sabermetric approach pioneered by Bill James. Many have still not accepted the James approach; and if you haven’t, then Drew is a hard sell indeed.

 

Sabermetric Theory

A brief digression into basic Sabermetric theory is, I believe, in order. At its most basic, the James approach seeks to remove context-dependent statistics from player evaluation. For instance, RBI and Runs Scored are often cited as proof that a player is “productive.” It is obvious, however, that those stats are heavily dependent upon context. A player can only drive in runners if they are on base, and can only score a run if somebody drives him in. So far, so good. Batting average is context-independent, and thus seemingly a valuable tool for judging a player. Closer examination, however, demonstrates an obvious problem: a player with a high batting average who does not walk very much or hit home runs (Juan Pierre) is less clearly less “productive” than a player with a low batting average who walks a lot and hits home runs (Adam Dunn). Fans know this intuitively, and the numbers back this up.

 

As anyone who read Moneyball knows, the “hot” statistic of the last decade is On-Base Percentage (OBP). The reason OBP is so critical is that the most important number in baseball is three—the numbers of outs allotted to each team in an inning. Every out made dramatically affects the probability that runs will be scored. Thus, the importance placed upon “not making outs,” which is the concept neatly expressed by OBP. Most of us who played little league were once told that “a walk is as good as a hit.” This is, of course, not quite true. A walk is (almost) as good as a single. Doubles, triples and, especially, home runs are better. Thus, Slugging Percentage is a valuable statistic. In an attempt to measure the overall value of an offensive player, the two statistics have been combined as On Base Plus Slugging, or OPS. If you look at the history books, or, actually, Baseball-Reference.com, you will find that the all-time leaders in OPS are, almost certainly, the five best hitters in baseball history: Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Lou Gehrig, Barry Bonds, and Jimmie Foxx. The active leader is Albert Pujols.

 

How Good is Drew?

Now that we have that out of the way, let us return to Mr. Drew. In 2009, Drew was second, to teammate Jason Bay, in OPS among American League outfielders. He was second in OBP. A fluke, you say? In 2008 he was third in OPS, and second in OBP. It is these numbers, along with his strong, and underrated, defense, that Theo is thinking of when he defends Drew. Not convinced? Then the this will really disturb you. Statisticians formulate what is called Adjusted OPS (OPS+), which normalizes the raw data for era, league, and ballpark factors; on this scale 100 is average. J.D. Drew has a career OPS+ of 129, which means that he is 29% more productive than the average player. Hall of Famer, and current NESN contributor, Jim Rice, had a career OPS+ of 128.

[Imperial59]

I think a lot of you guys are really blowing over the possibility that the offense takes a nose-dive here. You lose a guy like Bay' date=' who was your biggest power threat and was your second best hitter by far and add in a 38 yr old CFer and a 3B who is coming off an injury plagued season that was absolutely and totally putrid.[/quote']

 

 

Jacko, you're like a broken record. All you've done all year is bash the Red Sox offense. Give it up already. You've brought up the offense plenty of times already and we've discussed it to the point of exhaustion.

 

They have taken a pretty significant step back offensively.

 

Melky is the man' date=' I am so glad we didnt deal him for Cameron[/quote']

 

If I was a sox fan, I would hate that lineup as is.

 

#1- its a major dropoff from 2009, but we have been over that ad nauseum.

 

You'd see a lot of this...

 

Drew takes 7 pitches and walks

Cameron strikes out on 3 pitches

Kotchmann grounds to 1st

Scutaro pops up.

 

By the way' date=' if this is truly it offensively, the sox will have taken a step back, especially if they cannot improve on Lowell. Losing Bay takes away their biggest long ball and RBI threat, leaving only Youkilis as a true middle of the order run producer.[/quote']

 

So... how many times does a Yankees fan need to repeat the same criticism of the Red Sox for it to start to be seen as baiting? I could post a dozen more but I have to go to work.

[diony]

So... how many times does a Yankees fan need to repeat the same criticism of the Red Sox for it to start to be seen as baiting? I could post a dozen more but I have to go to work.

 

Just like when you criticized the Yankees bench so much

[Emmz]

Just like when you criticized the Yankees bench so much

 

How about providing examples?

[jacksonianmarch]

 

Jacko, you're like a broken record. All you've done all year is bash the Red Sox offense. Give it up already. You've brought up the offense plenty of times already and we've discussed it to the point of exhaustion.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

So... how many times does a Yankees fan need to repeat the same criticism of the Red Sox for it to start to be seen as baiting? I could post a dozen more but I have to go to work.

 

Enjoy work, tying up clients seems to be a forte of yours. Must suck to be a male escort

[Plumpamania]

Enjoy work' date=' tying up clients seems to be a forte of yours. Must suck to be a male escort[/quote']

 

Trolling/flaming and being a jerk.

 

Just sayin Brah.

[Plumpamania]

Just like when you criticized the Yankees bench so much

 

Red Sox fan site.

 

I'll bait you like you were a freakin sunny fish kiddo.

[Imperial59]

Just like when you criticized the Yankees bench so much

 

I hope you aren't holding a grudge for pointing out how weak the Yankees bench was a month ago when they didn't have a single player with half a year's worth of major league experience.