Thoughts on Adrian Beltre?

[Dipre]

How many games do you have to miss to qualify for the following season "Comeback" player of the year award? If Beltre qualifies, he wins hands down. My first prediction of the year

 

I think Beltre will have a "surprising" season.

 

He wants him money, so if he's healthy, i think he'll be "motivated" to produce.

[ORS]

Who the f*** cares?

This, specifically in response to the not being "scaredy-scared" of the Sox offense. There are two routes to winning the games. Score a lot, or prevent a lot. Ideally, you try to be good at both. Historically, and statistically, teams that excell only at one find more success when it is the latter.

 

Personally, I would have done a few things a bit differently this offseason, but the team they have put together can compete. Their run prevention should be quite good with the pitching and defense, which is looking like the best Sox defensive team in quite some time. Offensively, they've traded off some BA/OBP in exchange for better speed on the bases (overall) and, believe it or not, a little more power.

 

They actually remind me of the 2006 White Sox team. Excellent pitching, excellent defense, the ability to put pressure on the opposing D with speed on the bases, good power, but some shortcomings in the BA/OBP department and proned to K quite a bit. Overall, not perfect, but capable of doing the job.

[BSN07]

He wants him money' date=' so if he's healthy, i think he'll be "motivated" to produce.[/quote']

 

Exactly.

[Dipre]

This, specifically in response to the not being "scaredy-scared" of the Sox offense. There are two routes to winning the games. Score a lot, or prevent a lot. Ideally, you try to be good at both. Historically, and statistically, teams that excell only at one find more success when it is the latter.

 

Personally, I would have done a few things a bit differently this offseason, but the team they have put together can compete. Their run prevention should be quite good with the pitching and defense, which is looking like the best Sox defensive team in quite some time. Offensively, they've traded off some BA/OBP in exchange for better speed on the bases (overall) and, believe it or not, a little more power.

 

They actually remind me of the 2006 White Sox team. Excellent pitching, excellent defense, the ability to put pressure on the opposing D with speed on the bases, good power, but some shortcomings in the BA/OBP department and proned to K quite a bit. Overall, not perfect, but capable of doing the job.

 

Even if more K prone, this should be an offense that should be more consistent than last year's. Some people may not agree with me on this, but the greater speed combined with a deeper lineup should help avoid those long dry spells that the 2009 offense would get itself into.

[rhet]

run prevention

 

I prefer to call it run contraception. Beltre is our big condom down at the hot corner.

[BSN07]

Even if more K prone' date=' this should be an offense that should be more consistent than last year's. Some people may not agree with me on this, but the greater speed combined with a deeper lineup should help avoid those long dry spells that the 2009 offense would get itself into.[/quote']

 

That and add in the defense and pitching and this team isn't going to have to score 7+ runs a night to win.

 

But there will be the fans who while gripe about the offense, because it doesn't pound the opposition into dust.

[Imperial59]

This is another hope and a prayer signing. He has all the tools' date=' but he sucked (compared to his 2004) since he got to Seattle. I understand the stadium argument, but does that account for the drop in everything from elite level to average to below average level? It doesnt. He isnt the same player he was in 2004. But, if he can play good D, stay on the field for 140 games and put up an .800OPS he'll be useful. Regardless, this offense has taken another hit from Lowell to Beltre. The sox lineup doesnt scare me at all.[/quote']

 

Beltre has been quite an offensive force away from Safeco. Here are his away splits.

 

2006 - .282/.343/.462, 9 HR, 45 RBI

2007 - .288/.320/.538, 15 HR, 54 RBI

2008 - .292/.349/.512, 15 HR, 54 RBI

2009 - .279/.324/.393, 4 HR, 25 RBI*

 

*Only played 57 games due to injury

 

If he's healthy, I don't see any reason to believe that he won't be able to be the 30 HR, 100 RBI guy that he's been away from Safeco. And he's arguably the best defensive 3B in baseball. He makes the Sox much better.

[Red Foreman]

How many games do you have to miss to qualify for the following season "Comeback" player of the year award? If Beltre qualifies, he wins hands down. My first prediction of the year

 

I think Beltre will have a "surprising" season.

 

 

Either him or Lowell.

[Spudboy]

Why did Beltre have such a monster year in 2004?

 

And why has he been unable to come close to those numbers since?

 

It cant' just be Ballpark Factors.

[Emmz]

He was in Dodger Stadium, as well. Why did Esteban Loaiza have a monster year, and nothing really close? Hell, he wasn't even viable for most of his career.

 

Beltre has stellar D, and has plenty of power. Not to mention that season came close to when most players have their prime years. Beltre absolutely got his numbers snubbed at Safeco.

[Imperial59]

Why did Beltre have such a monster year in 2004?

 

And why has he been unable to come close to those numbers since?

 

It cant' just be Ballpark Factors.

 

Probably has something to do with steroids.

[Dipre]

Probably has something to do with steroids.

 

Or a downright fluke.

[Emmz]

I'd lean towards fluke. Steroids usually wouldn't just have an impact on one season, and then simply stop.

[Spudboy]

For some reason he was able to hit .334, 48,121, and .629 slg.

 

That is nothing like his career averages.

 

I don't buy the idea that he was at or near his "prime" age. Nor do I believe the stadium played a significant role in his numbers.

 

Maybe he had some really good shakes and vitamins.

[Imperial59]

I'd lean towards fluke. Steroids usually wouldn't just have an impact on one season' date=' and then simply stop.[/quote']

 

I don't know, it's kind of hard to fluke your way into 22 more home runs that you hit in any other year of your career. That kind of requires some added strength.

[Emmz]

No, his stadium wouldn't have helped, it's Dodger Stadium, a pitcher's park.

 

I believe it was more flukey than anything. Steroids having an impact on one season? I doubt it. It's the hitter's equivalent to an Esteban Loaiza, except for that Beltre brings a lot even outside of that season. He has power, and he is a Gold Glove caliber player at 3rd.

[Emmz]

I don't know' date=' it's kind of hard to fluke your way into 22 more home runs that you hit in any other year of your career. When a player shows a dramatic jump in strength, I tend to go with the simplest explanation.[/quote']

 

Check Esteban Loaiza's stats.

[Imperial59]

For some reason he was able to hit .334, 48,121, and .629 slg.

 

That is nothing like his career averages.

 

I don't but the idea that he was at or near his "prime" age. Nor do I believe the stadium played a significant role in his numbers.

 

Maybe he had some really good shakes and vitamins.

 

I agree. He was 25 years old in 2004, so the prime age argument is a pretty big stretch. Not to mention, he never came close to those numbers in his age 27-30 seasons.

[Imperial59]

Check Esteban Loaiza's stats.

 

Who's to say he wasn't on steroids too? If they can help you hit a ball 400 feet, they can certainly help you throw a ball 60.5 feet.

[Emmz]

Most players start to enter their prime ages around their mid-late twenties, and 25 falls under that category.

[Imperial59]

Most players start to enter their prime ages around their mid-late twenties' date=' and 25 falls under that category.[/quote']

 

The prime years of most hitters' careers are roughly ages 28-32.

[Emmz]

Who's to say he wasn't on steroids too?

 

Yeah, but it happens. Flukes happen all the time.

 

A bunch of crappy seasons, and in Beltre's case solid seasons, surrounding one monster season?

 

That screams fluke to me more than it does steroids, because steroids usually have an effect on more than one season.

 

There's merit to your argument, I acknowledge that, but I personally tend to think fluke when it's just one season.

[Imperial59]

Yeah, but it happens. Flukes happen all the time.

 

A bunch of crappy seasons, and in Beltre's case solid seasons, surrounding one monster season?

 

That screams fluke to me more than it does steroids, because steroids usually have an effect on more than one season.

 

There's merit to your argument, I acknowledge that, but I personally tend to think fluke when it's just one season.

 

I think it's much easier for a player to juice up for a contract year and then get lazy again than it is for a player to juice up and then maintain that muscle for multiple years.

[Emmz]

The prime years of most hitters' careers are roughly ages 28-32.

 

I said entering prime years. Some hitters enter their prime years as early as their early twenties, and it lasts for 10 years, that being the best case.

 

25 years old certainly isn't far off from entering the prime years.

[Imperial59]

I said entering prime years. Some hitters enter their prime years as early as their early twenties, and it lasts for 10 years, that being the best case.

 

25 years old certainly isn't far off from entering the prime years.

 

Can you name many hitters who had their prime years in their mid to early twenties and then dropped off significantly in their late 20's without injuries being a factor?

[Dipre]

Can you name many hitters who had their prime years in their mid to early twenties and then dropped off significantly in their late 20's without injuries being a factor?

 

I think it was just a fluke.

 

A lot of hitters/pitchers have monster contract seasons, then never repeat them again.

 

He might have been on steroids, but none of us really knows.

[callandor1000]

Lowell can't play defense.

 

The players we like aren't necessarily what's best for the team.

 

Well a healthy Lowell this year will play excellent defense. Beltre is a punk ass piece of s***. *shrug* I foresee Beltre being Edgar Renterria but at 3B instead of SS.

[Spudboy]

Well a healthy Lowell this year will play excellent defense. Beltre is a punk ass piece of s***. *shrug* I foresee Beltre being Edgar Renterria but at 3B instead of SS.

 

[Emmz]

Can you name many hitters who had their prime years in their mid to early twenties and then dropped off significantly in their late 20's without injuries being a factor?

 

Going to Safeco, against greater pitching competition in the superior league also plays a factor, though.

 

I really never saw Beltre repeating his successes that he had with the Dodgers.

[Dipre]

Well a healthy Lowell this year will play excellent defense. Beltre is a punk ass piece of s***. *shrug* I foresee Beltre being Edgar Renterria but at 3B instead of SS.

 

Yeah, even though defensive metrics, the Sox medical staff, and hell, watching the ballgames point otherwise.

 

You know, wishing for the impossible hard enough won't make it come true.