Why the obsession with A-Gon? Considering other alternatives...

[Dipre]

That's why a guy like Mike Lowell' date=' who hits a lot of line drives, hits for a high average, but isn't a huge HR hitter, thrives here -- while guys like Wily Mo Pena or Jeremy Giambi who are dependent on the long bomb, tend to struggle a bit.[/quote']

 

Also, this point:

 

Mike Lowell career LD%: 21.1%

 

Adrian Beltre career LD%,:19.1%

 

 

Really not that different from each other.

[Emmz]

I still highly doubt he hits FA. But that's a personal opinion so i know it doesn't hold much water. All we can do is wait and see.

 

Yup. I'm the biggest Mauer fan on this board, so naturally, I want him to remain in Minnesota. I think the balance of power would change a lot if he left for New York or Boston.

[Dojji]

However,looking at the park aspect, we both know that Fenway is a brutal park for lefty pull hitters, AKA Adam Laroche.

 

Look, the point is, that when you measure defense, ballpark projection and actual value, Beltre outweighs LaRoche.

 

You're welcome to think otherwise if you want. But at least present your points without the smugness like you've been doing after the mini-shitstorm.

 

My smugness = your abrasive arrogance.

 

Anywho, I'd much rather get hold of a RHH who hits a lot of line drive bombs than any LHH on the market. In my mind that means Hanley. I think that the same price that gets you AGonz and his poor build for this park gets you Hanley and his excellent one. That's my $.02.

[redsoxrevenge]

They probably can wait Beltre out and hand him a short-term contract (2 and 10?). Everything that I am reading suggests that Beltre wants a big contract that the Red Sox would not be justified in handing to him.

[Dipre]

My smugness = your abrasive arrogance.

Anywho, I'd much rather get hold of a RHH who hits a lot of line drive bombs than any LHH on the market. In my mind that means Hanley. I think that the same price that gets you AGonz and his poor build for this park gets you Hanley and his excellent one. That's my $.02.

 

Yet who started with which?

 

Hanley doesn't make for the Sox unfortunately. Not with them dumping Lowell to open up a CIF position while handing out 5 mill for Scutaro. I'd jizz in my pants if they got him though.

[Dipre]

They probably can wait Beltre out and hand him a short-term contract (2 and 10?). Everything that I am reading suggests that Beltre wants a big contract that the Red Sox would not be justified in handing to him.

 

2/14 if the market keeps developing the way it has been up to this point.

[redsoxrevenge]

2/14 if the market keeps developing the way it has been up to this point.

 

$7 million per year? That would be a good bargain for Beltre.

[Dipre]

$7 million per year? That would be a good bargain for Beltre.

 

I see it as completely possible, mainly because Figgins and Feliz basically set the market for Beltre, he's getting less than Figgins but more than Feliz, so 7-9 mill AAV range seems like the logical number.

[Emmz]

$7 million per year? That would be a good bargain for Beltre.

 

Yup, that's the thing, I'd rather get the guy who's got a bat and a glove, and looks to be a prime candidate for a bounce-back season.

[Plumpamania]

Yup' date=' that's the thing, I'd rather get the guy who's got a bat and a glove, and looks to be a prime candidate for a bounce-back season.[/quote']

 

And how is a guy in his 30's in line for a bounce back season? From what 2004?

[Dipre]

And how is a guy in his 30's in line for a bounce back season? From what 2004?

 

Adrian Beltre 2009 : 689 OPS.

 

Adrian Beltre career: .779

 

Adrian Beltre away from Safeco/Dodger: .826 OPS

[diony]

Adrian Beltre away from Safeco/Dodger: .826 OPS

 

Mike Lowell as a Red Sox: .829 OPS

 

Just saying.

[Dipre]

Mike Lowell as a Red Sox: .829 OPS

 

Just saying.

 

Honest question: What exactly does that have to do with Beltre's projection at Fenway?

[diony]

Honest question: What exactly does that have to do with Beltre's projection at Fenway?

 

You prefer one more year of Lowell or signing Beltre for three years?

[Dipre]

You prefer one more year of Lowell or signing Beltre for three years?

 

Lowell can barely play defense anymore, besides, it's highly likely that the Red Sox are the only suitors for Beltre and they could negotiate a 2/year plus option deal, even Boras can't work his magic enough to make a lone team bid against themselves.

[Emmz]

And how is a guy in his 30's in line for a bounce back season? From what 2004?

 

Because he played at Safeco, and Dodger Stadium before that. I think that's pretty legitimate, especially considering that he has had about 20 home runs (19 once) in every season from 2002-2008.

[Dojji]

But not 2009.

 

But for all he's youngish, he still has 11 big league seasons under his belt, more than most 35 year olds.

 

But he underwent elbow surgery during last season

 

But he's the third worst OB% hitter of all third basemen with at least 1200 at bats in the last 3 years. (actually maybe second worse -- I'm not sure Crede qualifies)

 

But Fenway isn't a very good homer park either, even to righthanders (the Monster gives, but in terms of HR's it definitely takes too)

 

But there's no way to have Adrian Gonzalez, David Ortiz, Kevin Youkilis and Adrian Beltre on the same roster without someone playing LF, meaning Beltre is clearly Plan B at best.

 

But he's asking for a 3 year deal when instead we can simply clear Lowell's salary and bring in a lower-risk substitude instead (if you don't like LaRoche, how about bringing in Garrett Atkins to play 1B?) and have more money to make other moves if things don't pan out

 

I think there's a lot of risk involved in bringing Adrian Beltre onto the team, and I'd be surprised if Theo was really gung-ho about the idea.

[jacksonianmarch]

Atkins signed with Baltimore yesterday

[jacksonianmarch]

Beltre has options. Apparently the Giants, A's, and Mariners are still interested in him. Theo could blow them all away if he wants too, but I have a feeling he doesnt. He's gonna want him for under $10 mil per yr, likely under $8mil. But he isnt desperate like some of the teams I mentioned

[Dipre]

But not 2009.

 

But for all he's youngish, he still has 11 big league seasons under his belt, more than most 35 year olds.

 

But he underwent elbow surgery during last season

 

But he's the third worst OB% hitter of all third basemen with at least 1200 at bats in the last 3 years. (actually maybe second worse -- I'm not sure Crede qualifies)

 

But Fenway isn't a very good homer park either, even to righthanders (the Monster gives, but in terms of HR's it definitely takes too)

 

But there's no way to have Adrian Gonzalez, David Ortiz, Kevin Youkilis and Adrian Beltre on the same roster without someone playing LF, meaning Beltre is clearly Plan B at best.

 

But he's asking for a 3 year deal when instead we can simply clear Lowell's salary and bring in a lower-risk substitude instead (if you don't like LaRoche, how about bringing in Garrett Atkins to play 1B?) and have more money to make other moves if things don't pan out

 

I think there's a lot of risk involved in bringing Adrian Beltre onto the team, and I'd be surprised if Theo was really gung-ho about the idea.

 

1) Atkins signed with the Orioles.

 

2) I don't believe the amount of games played is pertinent to the discussion.

 

3) Beltre has never had elbow surgery, it was shoulder surgery, and i also don't believe it to be pertinent to the discussion. ( I may be wrong, please post a link if i am)

 

4) Fenway is not a good homer park for lefties. It's not true for righties.

[Plumpamania]

Beltre and his sub .700 OPS is NOT worth anything more than $4 million per year. I'd rather take a player such as Brandon Phillips with a B level prospect and plug him in at 3B over Beltre.

[Dojji]

2) I don't believe the amount of games played is pertinent to the discussion.

 

You missed my point, which was about Beltre's low OBP. Only Pedro Feliz among regular 3B's has a lower one.

 

3) Beltre has never had elbow surgery, it was shoulder surgery, and i also don't believe it to be pertinent to the discussion. ( I may be wrong, please post a link if i am)

 

You're right, I misread that, but the shoulder's bad enough. Remember the numbers Drew put up the year after his shoulder surgery, and frankly Drew's a much more talented hitter than Beltre.

 

4) Fenway is not a good homer park for lefties. It's not true for righties.

 

It's a great doubles park for righties, but it's not a great HR park for anyone and is consistently one of the hardest parks in baseball to hit a HR at.

[ORS]

Incorrect. The park factors you can find at the major sporting new sites are overall park factors. A guy at Baseball Think Factory did a 3 year park factor for each park by field a couple of years ago. Fenway has a strong HR factor to LF. And, why wouldn't it? Normal flyouts are dingers there.

[SoxSport]

Epstein has to be careful he doesn't reach too high (AdGon) and come up with nothing. He doesn't want to box himself in paying too much for Gonzalez. And he doesn't want anybody else getting Beltre on the cheap. I doubt he sees Kotchman as a full-time solution at 1B. The power outage will negate the pitching advantage.

 

The one thing he cannot do is deal both Ellsbury and Buchholz to SD. That negates a good deal of Gonzalez. In fact, I don't think they can afford to deal Ellsbury at all, with the current OF.

[jacksonianmarch]

Incorrect. The park factors you can find at the major sporting new sites are overall park factors. A guy at Baseball Think Factory did a 3 year park factor for each park by field a couple of years ago. Fenway has a strong HR factor to LF. And' date=' why wouldn't it? Normal flyouts are dingers there.[/quote']

 

I guess the rationale is that hard line drive homers turn into singles, but I would venture to guess that a power hitter will hit more fly ball outs to LF that would be homers in Fenway than he would hit lower liners that would be homers anywhere else.

[jacksonianmarch]

Thing is, those long fly balls would be outs anywhere else, and turn into homers. Whereas the line drives off the wall are still hits. Hence, more total bases are generated, even if the numbers are totally even

[Dojji]

The other issue is, is it righthanded HOMERS that are boosted by the Monster, or righthanded POWER or SLG? As all discussed, Fenway is the biggest doubles park in MLB and RHH's hit a ton of doubles here.

 

If ORS is basing his point off SLG rather than homer count it's entirely possible there's no disagreement here at all.

[ORS]

It's not SLG, it's HR. And it wasn't BBTF, but Hardball Times. The guy who wrote the article runs Hittracker.

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/home-run-park-factor-a-new-approach/

[Dojji]

OK, that looks like gibberish for me, so that might as well be in Russian. I don't have the background in math to understand what they're talking about. So if you'd like to discuss it, it would probably be helpful to give a LITTLE more depth than that.

 

And if I understand that at all, which I wouldn't give good odds to, it has nothing to do with platoon advantages such as the HR advantage for RHH you're talkinng about -- except pointing out that using them can lead to inaccuracies because the current PF models don't factor in roster construction the way they should. Since our 2 best home run hitters were RHH I imagine that could be a factor. Kinda like what I was talking about by referring to a chicken and egg question.

 

Again, I'm fully willing to concede that RHH's thrive at Fenway, but I'd contend it has more to do with the wall and its ability to produce Fenway doubles. I'd need some hard evidence of how RHH's do exceptionally well hitting HR's at Fenway.

 

While your list shows that they do better hitting them out to left than they do to right, the homers to left are not all hit by righthanded hitters, one, and two, that's an average number compared to the rest of the chart. 16 more parks had homers fly out to straightaway left, and 12 parks had more to left center. That's just about the definition of "middle of the pack."

[ORS]

Over 100 means it helps HR, under 100 hurts HR.