Unofficial Adrian Gonzalez thread.

[JimEdHOF2009]

http://night-kitchen.com/images/beltre-gonzalez/gonzalez2007.jpg (2007)

 

http://night-kitchen.com/images/beltre-gonzalez/gonzalez2008.jpg (2008)

 

http://night-kitchen.com/images/beltre-gonzalez/gonzalez2009.jpg (2009)

 

 

 

Umm..yeah...judging by Adrian's 2007-2009 Spray Charts.. I'd say his would quickly become the fastest selling jersey in Red Sox history.

[Emmz]

Pretty much says that his numbers would increase from his already monster stats. NL West is loaded with pitchers parks too, whereas the AL East is loaded with hitters parks (See Camden Yards, New Yankee Stadium, Fenway Park).

 

I could see him coming close to 50 HR.

[Dipre]

And this is why Mike Cameron is a good addition offensively for the Sox:

 

http://www.hittrackeronline.com/parks/Cameron_Mike_2009_scatter.jpg

Dude likes to pull the ball.

[TheMino007]

I could see Cameron making great use of the Green Monster. I see a jump in his offensive numbers also. Gonzalez is an all out beast who hits to all fields. Get him out of the pitcher friendly PETCO Park and NL West in General and put him in Fenway Park for 81 games and other friendly parks in the AL East like Yankee Stadium and his numbers will jump. Dude already hit 40 homers last year. He could hit 45-50 if he doned the Sox uni next year

[Dojji]

people expecting a vast jump in homers from either Cameron or Gonzalez are going to be disappointed.

 

Higher AVG and scads of doubles is another matter though. This is a decent AVG park for righties, and the most doublicious park in the league. Both Cameron and his dead pull ways, and Gonzo's ability to drive it the other way, should be big helps for them.

 

Use Mike Lowell as a template. His HR count didn't go up at all, and that's only partly due to his health. His AVG, doubles and RBI all shot up though, and it led to some of the best numbers ever put out by a Red Sox 3B. For one year anyway.

 

I'm pretty sure most of us would take a version of Adrian Gonzalez that hit .300 and clubbed 40-45 doubles even if the HR numbers didn't rise.

 

And to be fair, Fenway probably suppresses HR's to right less than Petco does, and certainly suppresses them to left less than Petco does.

[Dipre]

people expecting a vast jump in homers from either Cameron or Gonzalez are going to be disappointed.

 

Higher AVG and scads of doubles is another matter though. I'm pretty sure most of us would take a version of Adrian Gonzalez that hit .300 even if the HR numbers didn't rise.

 

What are you talking about?

 

A) In Cameron's case, what would be expected is a jump in overall production, because a lot of fly-ball outs in Miller Park are doubles at Fenway, and how much he pulls the ball would lend itself to a production increase. Home runs have not been mentioned once.

 

B ) As for Gonzales, as much as you don't like to admit it, Fenway's LF wall is heaven for cheap homers, and for a guy who hit 21 oppo-shots last year, a modest increase in HR output is not a crazy thought. Stop thinking Fenway's LF wall is not cheap-homer heaven. It is, and we've proven it to you.

[Dipre]

Use Mike Lowell as a template. His HR count didn't go up at all, and that's only partly due to his health. His AVG, doubles and RBI all shot up though, and it led to some of the best numbers ever put out by a Red Sox 3B.

 

I'm pretty sure most of us would take a version of Adrian Gonzalez that hit .300 and clubbed 40-45 doubles even if the HR numbers didn't rise.

 

Mike Lowell is not a power hitter.

[Dojji]

Mike Lowell is not a power hitter.

Umm yes he is. An elite power hitter he isn't, but before the injury he was consistently at or over the 20 HR threshhold and hovering between .470 and .500 SLG. For 3B, that counts.

 

He's at least as much of a power hitter as, say, Mike Cameron.

[Dojji]

What are you talking about?

 

A) In Cameron's case, what would be expected is a jump in overall production, because a lot of fly-ball outs in Miller Park are doubles at Fenway, and how much he pulls the ball would lend itself to a production increase. Home runs have not been mentioned once.

 

Then you really don't disagree with me and are just generally being an ass. OK.

 

B ) As for Gonzales, as much as you don't like to admit it, Fenway's LF wall is heaven for cheap homers, and for a guy who hit 21 oppo-shots last year, a modest increase in HR output is not a crazy thought. Stop thinking Fenway's LF wall is not cheap-homer heaven. It is, and we've proven it to you.

 

Sure it gives some cheapies, it also takes away its fair share of line drives that would go in other parks. How many times have we all seen that line drive that hits the wall so sharply it bounces back to the infield? Most of the time that's only recorded for the distance it actually travelled, from home plate to off the top of the wall, and the fact that it would have cleared any other wall in the league isn't even put down for posterity.

 

Fenway's about average for HR's to left. Which is, of course, an improvement from Petco. I still think that Fenway will help Gonzalez much more in the doubles and AVG departments.

[Dipre]

Then you really don't disagree with me and are just generally being an ass. OK.

 

No. It means you're being an idiot for putting words in other people's mouths.Ok.

 

No one has expressed they expect a homer jump from Mike Cameron. You're simply making s*** up.

 

Btw, even though it's easy to notice the fact that i've abandoned personal attacks, i won't take them. So if you're a douche to me, i'll be a douche to you.

 

Sure it gives some cheapies, it also takes away its fair share of line drives that would go in other parks.

 

Fenway's about average for HR's to left. Which is, of course, an improvement from Petco.

 

Where did you get this?

 

Fenway Park was 7th in the AL, tied with the Metrodome, with 2.30 HR/Game. And a total of 186 HR's were hit at Fenway last year.

 

117 of those homeruns were hit to LF last year. 62.90% of HR's at Fenway last year were hit to LF.

 

Explain to me how a park that yielded 117 HR's to straightaway LF last year is "average" in HR's to left?

 

 

For conceptualization purposes:

 

Kauffman stadium yielded 134 HR's all of last year.

 

Safeco Field yielded 156 HR's all of last year.

 

Jacobs Field yielded 138 HR's all of last year.

[Dipre]

Umm yes he is. An elite power hitter he isn't, but before the injury he was consistently at or over the 20 HR threshhold and hovering between .470 and .500 SLG. For 3B, that counts.

 

He's at least as much of a power hitter as, say, Mike Cameron.

 

Cameron's not the player being discussed here.

[example1]

Is any of this discussion even bordering on whether or not AG would be a good addition for the Sox? If not then why are you arguing?

 

He may put a few more over the wall, he may merely lash some doubles toward the top of the monster. Being able to predict one way or the other makes little difference on whether he'd provide an impact for the lineup (he would) and by extension whether that would help the Sox be a beter team overall (they would).

 

I think we all agree about most of this stuff. I'll chalk the arguing up to a slow news week...

[Dipre]

Is any of this discussion even bordering on whether or not AG would be a good addition for the Sox? If not then why are you arguing?

 

He may put a few more over the wall, he may merely lash some doubles toward the top of the monster. Being able to predict one way or the other makes little difference on whether he'd provide an impact for the lineup (he would) and by extension whether that would help the Sox be a beter team overall (they would).

 

I think we all agree about most of this stuff. I'll chalk the arguing up to a slow news week...

 

Incorrect.

 

For some reason, for the past few weeks Doiji has attempted to undermine the effect Fenway park's LF has on HR totals.

 

He claims that Fenway is a "doubles" park. And this would be correct, but can only be partially attributed to the Green monster, because research done by ORS and myself shows that Fenway is homer-heaven for RH pull hitters, and while putting it into the context of the Adrian Gonzales scenario, it should greatly improve his HR potential at Fenway Park, a fact that can be attributed his ridiculous opposite-field HR total the past two years, because the guy sprays ball to Left as if he were a LHH.

 

The Mike Cameron discussion is a strawman brought up to divert attention from the main point. No one in the entire site has ever said "Fenway will boost Cameron's HR total".

 

I called him out on both subjects in the context of the discussion without any sort of personal attacks. He resorted to name calling, which is exactly the behavior i have been condemned for in the past.

 

Fenway Park 2007-2009 number of HR's and HR% to left field:

 

 

2009:

 

Total Homers: 186

 

Homers hit to Left Field: 117

 

Home Run Percent to Left Field:62.90%

 

 

2008:

 

Total Homers: 147

 

Home Runs to Left Field: 95

 

Home run percent to Left Field: 64.62%

 

2007:

 

Total Homers: 148

 

Home Runs to Left Field: 89

 

Home Run Percentage to Left Field:60.54%

 

If you're going to make an analysis about something such as the impact a certain ballpark has to a certain ballplayer, expect it to be challenged if it is inaccurate. Doiji's assessment of Fenway Park and its impact on Adrian Gonzales is inaccurate, i challenged his premise, and all he had to do was refute my point, not resort to personal attacks and name-calling.

[example1]

Incorrect.

 

For some reason, for the past few weeks Doiji has attempted to undermine the effect Fenway park's LF has on HR totals.

 

He claims that Fenway is a "doubles" park. And this would be correct, but can only be partially attributed to the Green monster, because research done by ORS and myself shows that Fenway is homer-heaven for RH pull hitters, and while putting it into the context of the Adrian Gonzales scenario, it should greatly improve his HR potential at Fenway Park, a fact that can be attributed his ridiculous opposite-field HR total the past two years, because the guy sprays ball to Left as if he were a LHH.

 

The Mike Cameron discussion is a strawman brought up to divert attention from the main point. No one in the entire site has ever said "Fenway will boost Cameron's HR total".

 

I called him out on both subjects in the context of the discussion without any sort of personal attacks. He resorted to name calling, which is exactly the behavior i have been condemned for in the past.

 

Fenway Park 2007-2009 number of HR's and HR% to left field:

 

 

2009:

 

Total Homers: 186

 

Homers hit to Left Field: 117

 

Home Run Percent to Left Field:62.90%

 

 

2008:

 

Total Homers: 147

 

Home Runs to Left Field: 95

 

Home run percent to Left Field: 64.62%

 

2007:

 

Total Homers: 148

 

Home Runs to Left Field: 89

 

Home Run Percentage to Left Field:60.54%

 

If you're going to make an analysis about something such as the impact a certain ballpark has to a certain ballplayer, expect it to be challenged if it is inaccurate. Doiji's assessment of Fenway Park and its impact on Adrian Gonzales is inaccurate, i challenged his premise, and all he had to do was refute my point, not resort to personal attacks and name-calling.

 

If the Red Sox signed Matt Holliday today I think you would stop caring pretty quickly about what mistakes Dojji makes... even if you are right about the HR thing.

 

Again, pretty slow news week.

[Dojji]

You get those numbers not because LF is great, but because RF is freaking horrible and CF is worse. You can't make the claim that LF is a uniquely easy field simply by comparing it to our own RF and CF, which are uniquely difficult fields.

 

If it's that easy for a RHH to homer at Fenway, maybe you should start listing the RHH's who had multiple years with other squads and had unique personal bests in homers at Fenway. And I'm going to cut off the obvious counterpoint by reminding you that Garciaparra was hurt.

 

Bay's a technical fit, since he eclipsed his previous personal high of 35 bombs by hitting an incredible... 36. Manny's personal best is a tie at 45 between one year with us and one in Cleveland. Other than that, maybe Kevin Millar? It's not really a very long list anyway.

[Dipre]

If the Red Sox signed Matt Holliday today I think you would stop caring pretty quickly about what mistakes Dojji makes... even if you are right about the HR thing.

 

Again, pretty slow news week.

 

The issue is not the mistake.

 

As you say, it's a slow week, the discussion revolves around what little we have, and there's no need for personal attacks.

[Dipre]

You get those numbers not because LF is great, but because RF is freaking horrible and CF is worse.

 

If it's that easy for a RHH to homer at Fenway, maybe you should start listing the RHH's who had multiple years with other squads and had unique personal bests in homers at Fenway. Bay's about the only one I can think of who's even a technical match, and he beat his previous personal best by one single, solidary home run. Accounting for the steeper pitching difficulty of the AL East, the guy pretty much carried on as he always has.

 

Account for stadium rankings.

 

Do this research yourself:

 

Tell me how many of the other AL stadiums yield 88+ HR's to LF on a consistent basis.

 

Hit tracker online

 

Back it up with statistics.

[Dipre]

For instance, in Citizens Bank Park (An absolute launching pad) , 207 Home Runs were hit last year (21 more than Fenway), but only 107 of those were hit to LF.

 

in other words, more Home Runs were hit to LF last year in Fenway Park than one of the best Home Run stadium in the Majors, and unlike Yankee stadium, Citizens Bank doesn't have a preferred HR destination.

[Dojji]

If Hit Tracker breaks it up by which field the ball was hit in, I can't find it.

 

Anyway, food for thought.

 

http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2009/04/home_run_park_f.php

 

Fenway comes in pretty much average in overall HR's and only allows 54% hr's to left -- which is pretty danged average despite our issues in right and center.

 

Most parks give up most of their HR's to left. It's simply a result of the fact that there's a lot more pure RHH than they are LHH and switch hitters combined.

 

Is our differential a bit more exaggerated than most? Kinda depends on the year. And at least half of what we do see is a known problem hitting HR's to RF and CF, rather than any particular advantage to left.

 

How about instead of passing the buck onto me to try and prove a negative, go ahead and find some evidence that it's a unique park effect favoring our left field, as opposed to an artifact of our deep RF and CF which are particularly difficult -- or merely the fact that we cater to RHH and LHH that hit to LF more than most teams because of the monster, creating a statistical chicken and egg question.

[Dipre]

If Hit Tracker breaks it up by which field the ball was hit in, I can't find it.

 

Anyway, food for thought.

 

http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2009/04/home_run_park_f.php

 

Most parks give up most of their HR's to left. It's simply a result of the fact that there's a lot more pure RHH than they are LHH and switch hitters combined.

 

Is our differential a bit more exaggerated than most? Sure, but not by all that much, and at least half of that is a known problem hitting HR's to RF and CF, rather than any particular advantage to left.

 

How about instead of passing the buck onto me to try and prove a negative, go ahead and find some evidence that it's a unique park effect favoring our left field, as opposed to an artifact of our deep RF and CF which are particularly difficult -- or merely the fact that we cater to RHH and LHH that hit to LF more than most teams because of the monster, creating a statistical chicken and egg question.

 

To the bolded part:

 

According to your own research, Fenway Park yields 10% more HR's to LF than the average ballpark. And the website you used has Hit Tracker as its main source.That means that, just like i did, they found a way to sort Hit Tracker's HR's by the part of the stadium they were hit to. Simply sort by horizontal angle. Anything over 95.0 is Left Field. Of course, try using 2007-2009. 2006 is a statistical anomaly by Fenway's standards.

 

Here are the averages for all regular season home runs from 2006-2008 for which Hit Tracker has information. Here is the glossary for the terms. I've broken the fields into left, center, and right. I'd love to get more granular if I had more data. The second column refers to how many home runs were hit over the timespan, and the percentage hit to each field. The rest are Hit Tracker terms.

 

Thank very much for proving my point.

 

Also, your "chicken and egg" question reference does not suit the context it was used in. Try again.

[Dojji]

To the bolded part:

 

According to your own research, Fenway Park yields 10% more HR's to LF than the average ballpark.

 

And the question you're dancing around, and failing or refusing to tackle head-on, is what the cause of that is. Is it because it's particularly easy to homer out of our LF compared to other ballparks? Or is it because it's a hell of a lot harder to homer out of our CF and RF? Both causes would yield the same sort ratio. And quite frankly, both your data and mine point out that it's pretty damned hard to hit it out to right or center at Fenway. In order to prove either of us wrong or right, we need to figure out a way to tell the difference between a left field that's "particularly good," and one that's only "not particularly awful."

 

If all you use is total HR's hit at Fenway, you're not going to answer that question. The fact is that the total number of HR's hit at Fenway over the last year or so is fairly low. Overall park effects have listed us in either the middle or the bottom 15 as an overall home run park each of the last several years. So left field gets a larger cut than average, yes, but it's a cut of an average to below average sized pie. See how that works?

[Dipre]

And the question you're dancing around, and failing or refusing to tackle head-on, is what the cause of that is. Is it because it's particularly easy to homer out of our LF compared to other ballparks? Or is it because it's a hell of a lot harder to homer out of our CF and RF? Both causes would yield the same sort ratio. And quite frankly, both your data and mine point out that it's pretty damned hard to hit it out to right or center at Fenway. In order to prove either of us wrong or right, we need to figure out a way to tell the difference between a left field that's "particularly good," and one that's only "not particularly awful."

 

If all you use is total HR's hit at Fenway, you're not going to answer that question. The fact is that the total number of HR's hit at Fenway over the last year or so is fairly low. Overall park effects have listed us in either the middle or the bottom 15 as an overall home run park each of the last several years. So left field gets a larger cut than average, yes, but it's a cut of an average to below average sized pie. See how that works?

 

But you're failing to account for the actual number of home runs that are hit out to left field.

 

If someone is looking for tangents to get out of the main issue, it's not me.

 

I used both percentage and HR number.

 

More Home Runs were hit over the Green Monster and LF power alley last year than the same area in Citizens' Bank Park. A known launching pad.

 

It's simply easy to homer over the Green Monster. Not because it's hard to hit it out through CF and RF (this has been acknowledged several times) but because the actual number of Home Runs hit in that area reflects this.

[Dipre]

2009 Fenway Park:

 

Total Homers: 186

 

117 HR's to LF.

 

2008 Comerica Park:

 

Total Homers: 202

 

117 HR's to LF.

 

2009 Citizens Bank Park:

 

Total Homers:207

 

107 HR's to LF.

[Keeper]

I could see Cameron making great use of the Green Monster. I see a jump in his offensive numbers also.

 

Cameron will be 37 next season. If he weren't so old, I'd have to agree with you. I know he's been fairly consistent throughout his career, but 37 is 37. My expectations for Cameron aren't nearly as high as some fans.

[riverside sluggers]

Im just expecting solid defense, .250 avg, 20 HRs, 75 RBIs

[Dipre]

Im just expecting solid defense' date=' .250 avg, 20 HRs, 75 RBIs[/quote']

 

.800 OPS.

[Keeper]

I don't expect an .800 OPS. Bill James projected a .756 OPS. I'd say that's a little low, but I could see an OPS in the range of .765 - .780.

[Dipre]

I don't expect an .800 OPS. Bill James projected a .756 OPS. I'd say that's a little low' date=' but I could see an OPS in the range of .765-.780.[/quote']

 

I think the increase in XBH will push him just enough to reach the .800 range.

[Keeper]

Kelly got the largest signing bonus in club history' date=' $3.0 million. FWIW.[/quote']

 

Jose Iglesias has the largest signing bonus now at $6.25 million.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/organization-top-10-prospects/2010/269311.html

[jacksonianmarch]

They might be talking about amateur talent. Cuban and Japanese players have the caveat of being professionals before coming to the US.