New York Yankees top 50 prospects

[yankees228]

http://yankees.lhblogs.com/2009/11/24/a-few-winter-ball-updates/

 

Some winter league updates courtesy of the Chad Jennings.

[Imperial59]

I am not plagiarizing. I do take a lot of the intiricacies in velocity and what types of pitches they throw from pinstripesplus and a smattering from BA and BP.

 

Jacko's not plagiarizing. Sure, he takes all the objective stuff like velocity from other sites, but his ratings are made up mostly of his subjective gems of analysis, smattered with doses of "I really like this kid" or "he looked great when I saw him" in an attempt to give it an individualized, legitimate feel.

[Dipre]

Jacko's not plagiarizing. Sure' date=' he takes all the objective stuff like velocity from other sites, but his ratings are made up mostly of his subjective gems of analysis, smattered with doses of "I really like this kid" or "he looked great when I saw him" in an attempt to give it an individualized, legitimate feel.[/quote']

 

I like you.

[jacksonianmarch]

36. Jimmy Paredes, 3B, 20yrs old- NYP .302/.336/.410. Paredes is a very intriguing prospect who has a chance to put himself on the map next yr in the long season leagues. He is status post labrum repair, which weakened his arm a bit. He has the range and the glove to play the middle infield as well, and right now I am not sure if he is pegged for one spot or the other. He has a massive amount of speed to burn as evidenced by his 23 steals in 54 games.

Strengths- He makes solid contact, has gap power now and should develop average to above average power, plays the field well, and has top notch speed

Weaknesses- His arm injury may make 3b impossible at the higher levels. His approach is a bit too aggressive as well, as evidenced by the 10BB and 30K in 215PAs

Ceiling- Depends on the position. As a corner IFer, he'd buck convention since I dont think he'll have 20 homer power. But if he sticks in the middle infield, he could be an above average SS should he continue to develop as he has

Projection- I am gonna run into this a lot in the back end of the rankings, but it is hard to say since his current and his future are pretty far apart, even though he has a solid season in 2009

ETA- He has Pirela, Nunez and Pena above him at SS, and Cano, Adams and Joseph ahead of him at 2b. I bet he goes one level at a time. He'll be in Charleston next yr

 

37. Bryan Mitchell, RHP, 18yrs old- No stats. Mitchell was a big bonus late round pick in 2009 and has the chance to make Cashman look really good. He's got a good fastball for an 18yr old and has a plus curve now. But he has a long way to go.

Strengths- Low 90s heat as an 18 yr old with a solid frame and a plus curveball now.

Weaknesses- His inexperience and the lack of a plus change are the big ones, but he's one of the more advanced 18 yr olds you will ever see

Ceiling- He's got a top of the rotation ceiling

Projection- as with all pitching prospects, health is just as big as stuff, so we'll see if he weathers the minor league injury storm

ETA- He might skip the short seasons altogether in 2010, but he likely will end up in the NYP

 

38. Sean Black, RHP, 21yrs old- NYP- 6-0, 1.62ERA, 0.78WHIP, 6.1K/9IP 3.1K/BB. Black was a highly touted high schooler when he was selected in the 2nd round a few yrs back. But a trip to Seton Hall wasnt what he had dreamed of. He was hit pretty hard, prompting many to think he was a bust. But it turned out that he had metal bat syndrome. He has a new approach and was absolutely lights out in the NYP.

Strengths- Big frame, pinpoint control, and a plus sinker/change combo made him dominant in the NYP.

Weaknesses- He needs to develop a breaking ball that has bite to it in order to progress as a starter. Also, for a sinkerballer, he didnt get a lot of grounders, nor does he strike out batters

Ceiling- I see him as a middle of the rotation starter in the future

Projection- I think it is very easy to see him in the pen since he has a 2 pitch arsenal and he's pretty significantly blocked at the higher levels

ETA- He'll be in Charleston in 2010 and depending on his role going forward, he'll either move one yr at a time (starter) or rifle through the system (as a reliever)

 

 

39. Kevin Whelan, RHP, 25yrs old- AA/AAA 4-0 2.47ERA, 1.28WHIP in 67.1IP, 11.4K/9IP, 2.1K/BB. Whelan is the perfect example of stuff vs control. Whelan is a dominant reliever with lights out closer stuff. But he just doesnt have control of it. I am surprised he didnt get taken in Rule V, though, he is the kind of arm that teams look good in retrospect acquiring.

Strengths- 96+mph fastball, the best splitter in the system, maybe the entire minors and a plus slider are 3 solid strengths for Whelan. He has also improved over the past few seasons

Weaknesses- He struggles with fastball command, causing walks, lots and lots of walks

Ceiling- If something clicks and he can consistently locate his heater, he'll be a closer now.

Projection- I have a feeling he harnesses it enough to crack the big leagues, but I doubt he will be accurate enough to be a trusted reliever. Reminds me a lot of Bruney

ETA- He'll make his MLB debut this yr so long as he doesnt fall off a cliff

 

40. Hector Noesi, RHP, 22yrs old- A/A+ 6-4 2.92ERA, 0.95WHIP, 9.1K/BB, 7.9K/BB. Noesi was one of those feel good stories for the yankees this yr. He went from being depth in Charleston to a true prospect story. And all of that was based on his impeccable control and the development of his curveball. Look at the K/BB. That is not a type. Nearly 8Ks for every walk, 118Ks to 15 walks in 117IP. Thats not bad

Strengths- Low to mid 90s heater, plus curveball now and a league average change with impeccable command has put him on the map

Weaknesses- He needs to prove this wasnt a fluke, cause without the curve, he isnt worth much

Ceiling- I see Noesi as a middle of the rotation starter, his command plays out better in the rotation

Projection- If he puts up another solid season, he'll be trade bait. He has solid stuff, but other guys have better stuff and I have a feeling Noesi gets dealt

ETA- He'll probably start the yr in AA and should see big league action in 2011.

[Meh]

Bryan Mitchell at 37? No, you must be getting these ranks from PP, if you really believe he's 37 then you have no idea. He's a top 15 prospect in the system. Everyone one in the Yankees FO is estatic about Mitchell. They like the most out of Cotham, Stoneburner and himself.

[diony]

How Corban Joseph made the Top 10? He's an horrendous defender at 2B and hasn't show much hitting ability aside from a pair of good months last year with an unsustainable BABIP. Yet he's ahead of more solid prospects like Dan Brewer or David Adams, they all belong to the 20-30 range.

 

D.J Mitchell ahead of Arodys Vizcaino... Jesus Christ.

[jacksonianmarch]

Corban Joseph plays multiple positions and has shown the basic tools to be a good middle infielder. His bat is what I like more than anything else. And it isnt just the average with Joseph, he was 20 last yr and had a big IsoPatience which I like and really started smoking the ball into the gaps towards the end of the yr. I dont really look at BABIP in the minors, to be honest with you. The fact that the kid was a yr or two younger than most in tnat league, AND he was in his first full professional season was impressive. He will earn that spot, I guarantee it.

 

I dont have a lot of info on Bryan Mitchell aside from what I got from PP, hence why I ranked him so low. Plus, with him being a HSer, I figure he has room to improve. But everything I have read on him is impressive

 

I have Mitchell over Vizcaino mostly because Mitchell showed it at a higher level. VIz has a much higher ceiling, but I doubt his ability to stay healthy. But if both are healthy and make the majors, Viz will be a lot better

[diony]

Corban Joseph plays multiple positions and has shown the basic tools to be a good middle infielder. His bat is what I like more than anything else. And it isnt just the average with Joseph, he was 20 last yr and had a big IsoPatience which I like and really started smoking the ball into the gaps towards the end of the yr. I dont really look at BABIP in the minors, to be honest with you. The fact that the kid was a yr or two younger than most in tnat league, AND he was in his first full professional season was impressive. He will earn that spot, I guarantee it.

 

I dont have a lot of info on Bryan Mitchell aside from what I got from PP, hence why I ranked him so low. Plus, with him being a HSer, I figure he has room to improve. But everything I have read on him is impressive

 

I have Mitchell over Vizcaino mostly because Mitchell showed it at a higher level. VIz has a much higher ceiling, but I doubt his ability to stay healthy. But if both are healthy and make the majors, Viz will be a lot better

I totally agree with Joseph. But Top 10 is too much.

 

Mitchell is a 22 year old that had success at A/A+, he?s too old for that league, and he lack a pitch that he can use against leftys (changeup). His ceiling is Chad Gaudin at this point, with way worst K rates. Vizcaino is a 18 year old that sits at the mid-90s with his fastball and tops at 98. What not to like.

[jacksonianmarch]

Like I said my friend, Viz has a much higher ceiling. But Mitchell has more polish and has been successful at higher levels. A good part of a ranking is proximity. And Viz hasnt played a game in the long season leagues yet. If he dominates Charleston, which I expect him to do, he'll be top 5

 

In terms of Mitchell's stuff, you are missing a few things. Mitchell has turned the corner with his curveball, which is one of the reasons why he's got a pretty good K rate for a sinkerballer, and he made strides with his changeup. If he gets that thing down, then he'll profile well in the rotation. If not, then he is a Shields-like reliever with deception, movement and velocity

[26 to 6]

Well looks like this debate is moot now that Viz has been traded. Damn!

[Meh]

How Corban Joseph made the Top 10? He's an horrendous defender at 2B and hasn't show much hitting ability aside from a pair of good months last year with an unsustainable BABIP. Yet he's ahead of more solid prospects like Dan Brewer or David Adams' date=' they all belong to the 20-30 range.[/quote']

 

Joseph gets the Utley comps with the bat... He's got great power potential there. If you'd seriously take Brewer over Joseph then theres no hope for you. Joseph is the second best hitter in the system behind Montero. I agree 100% on the fact Vizcaino should be higher than Mitchell. I would have Mitchell around 13th-15th.

[Dipre]

Joseph gets the Utley comps with the bat... He's got great power potential there. If you'd seriously take Brewer over Joseph then theres no hope for you. Joseph is the second best hitter in the system behind Montero. I agree 100% on the fact Vizcaino should be higher than Mitchell. I would have Mitchell around 13th-15th.

 

Willy Mo Pena used to get Manny Ramirez comparisons.

 

Check out the adavanced stats on Joseph. You'll be surprised.

[jacksonianmarch]

Dipre, stats really only tell you a small part of the story on a minor league kid and the advanced stats are nice, but you need to put them into context. I never understood the Utley comps, since I think Utley has prime power for the position. But Joseph has gap power that really started showing up late in the season. If it progressed, he's a double digit homer threat

[Emmz]

Dipre' date=' stats really only tell you a small part of the story on a minor league kid and the advanced stats are nice, but you need to put them into context. I never understood the Utley comps, since I think Utley has prime power for the position. But Joseph has gap power that really started showing up late in the season. If it progressed, he's a double digit homer threat[/quote']

 

Stats>Comparisons.

 

For example, like Dipre said, Wily Mo Pena used to be compared to Manny. If that was the case, we'd have a guy who was a .400+OBP guy, with capability to go 1.000+OPS every year, with incredible production. Well, what Wily Mo Pena turned out to be, was a guy who could not make contact like Manny, did not have the plate discipline, and overall, he really just had Manny's skills in the outfield. Basically, he was Manny without the bat, which basically means he's useless.

 

You can have all the comparisons you want, I could compare Carlos Gomez to Kirby Puckett. In fact, the Star Tribune used to stroke their cocks about getting Gomez, saying he was "the next Twins great CF", and that he could potentially be a 5-tool player. Well, that never happened. That's never going to happen, because Carlos Gomez can't hit, can't hit for power, and all he's got is a pretty good glove. Thank God Bill Smith made his first good trade as a GM, by getting rid of him for J.J. Hardy.

[Dipre]

Willy Mo Pena used to get Manny Ramirez comparisons.

 

Check out the adavanced stats on Joseph. You'll be surprised.

 

Dipre' date=' stats really only tell you a small part of the story on a minor league kid and the advanced stats are nice, but you need to put them into context. [b'] I never understood the Utley comps, since I think Utley has prime power for the position.[/b] But Joseph has gap power that really started showing up late in the season. If it progressed, he's a double digit homer threat

 

You just agreed with me, so what the hell are you talking about?

 

Just agree he doesn't have the projection you gave him. Stats tell you all you need to know about unsustainable runs. This is fact.

[jacksonianmarch]

You just agreed with me, so what the hell are you talking about?

 

Just agree he doesn't have the projection you gave him. Stats tell you all you need to know about unsustainable runs. This is fact.

 

this was my quote on the ceiling of Joseph

 

Ceiling I have heard an Utley comparison previously, but I think that's way too generous since Utley's power is incredibly rare from a MIF. He looks like he could be a .300+ hitter with double digit homers and a very high OBP.

 

Also, you continue to say "this is fact" in areas where that is not fact at all. Actually, anyone who knows anything about development knows that stats tell only a fraction of the story. A player could be working on something for a short time, they could be getting used to new mechanics, etc. You need to take in the whole picture.

[Dipre]

this was my quote on the ceiling of Joseph

 

Then you were basically agreeing with the guy making the assesment,making an exception to snake your way out of ridicule, therefore, you do agree with the assesment. Therefore, you are yet again overvaluing a Yankee prospect.

 

 

Also, you continue to say "this is fact" in areas where that is not fact at all. Actually, anyone who knows anything about development knows that stats tell only a fraction of the story. A player could be working on something for a short time, they could be getting used to new mechanics, etc. You need to take in the whole picture.

 

It would be fact if it was about Red Sox players. That's all i have to say about that.

[diony]

Joseph gets the Utley comps with the bat... He's got great power potential there. If you'd seriously take Brewer over Joseph then theres no hope for you. Joseph is the second best hitter in the system behind Montero. I agree 100% on the fact Vizcaino should be higher than Mitchell. I would have Mitchell around 13th-15th.

 

Brewer is a solid prospect that can play multiple positions. That's something Joseph can't. He couldn't handle SS, and last season proved he can't handle 2B either. Do you know why he started the season in Extended Spring Training? He was learning how to properly field drills.

 

He's more suited for 3B, but that would reduce his already low ceiling significatively.

 

There are better hitters than him in the system, like Romine and I'd dare to say that Murphy and Heathcott are better than him. If you want a 2B, then you have Adams .281/.360/.498 last year in A+ with above average defense.

[jacksonianmarch]

Then you were basically agreeing with the guy making the assesment,making an exception to snake your way out of ridicule, therefore, you do agree with the assesment. Therefore, you are yet again overvaluing a Yankee prospect.

 

 

 

 

It would be fact if it was about Red Sox players. That's all i have to say about that.

 

can you make another inference? Please?

[jacksonianmarch]

Brewer is a solid prospect that can play multiple positions. That's something Joseph can't. He couldn't handle SS, and last season proved he can't handle 2B either. Do you know why he started the season in Extended Spring Training? He was learning how to properly field drills.

 

He's more suited for 3B, but that would reduce his already low ceiling significatively.

 

There are better hitters than him in the system, like Romine and I'd dare to say that Murphy and Heathcott are better than him. If you want a 2B, then you have Adams .281/.360/.498 last year in A+ with above average defense.

 

you truly dont know much at all about our system

[Dipre]

can you make another inference? Please?

 

Cop-out. Of massive nature.

[Dipre]

you truly dont know much at all about our system

 

Oh?

 

So if someone doesn't massively over-value a defensively-challenged infielder with some pop he doesn't know about the system?

 

Go figure.........

[jacksonianmarch]

I am not doubting that Joseph needs some work defensively. He's better than he's being portrayed, but he isnt a defensive whiz by any means. But saying that a 20 yr old who mashed long season in his first professional yr has a low ceiling is just incorrect.

[Dipre]

I am not doubting that Joseph needs some work defensively. He's better than he's being portrayed' date=' but he isnt a defensive whiz by any means. But saying that a 20 yr old who mashed long season in his first professional yr has a low ceiling is just incorrect.[/quote']

 

No one has said he has a low ceiling. What is being said (and rightfully so) is that he's not a top-ten prospect at the moment.

[diony]

you truly dont know much at all about our system

 

I know enough. I know that Mitchell (a 22 year old that dominated A/A+) is not a #6 on any Yankee prospect list, except yours. Even worst, you have him ahead of Viz and Heathcott.

 

Melancon and Dunn are not even on your list.

 

So much crap ahead of J.R Murphy, I mean Eduardo Nunez and Chris Garcia, seriously?

[jacksonianmarch]

Brewer is a solid prospect that can play multiple positions. That's something Joseph can't. He couldn't handle SS, and last season proved he can't handle 2B either. Do you know why he started the season in Extended Spring Training? He was learning how to properly field drills.

 

He's more suited for 3B, but that would reduce his already low ceiling significatively.

 

There are better hitters than him in the system, like Romine and I'd dare to say that Murphy and Heathcott are better than him. If you want a 2B, then you have Adams .281/.360/.498 last year in A+ with above average defense.

 

actually, diony did

[jacksonianmarch]

I know enough. I know that Mitchell (a 22 year old that dominated A/A+) is not a #6 on any Yankee prospect list, except yours. Even worst, you have him ahead of Viz and Heathcott.

 

Melancon and Dunn are not even on your list.

 

So much crap ahead of J.R Murphy, I mean Eduardo Nunez and Chris Garcia, seriously?

 

If you can read, I said that Dunn and Melancon wouldnt be on the list since they made their debuts. And I like some performance instead of all hype. Heathcott hardly played

[Dipre]

actually' date=' diony did[/quote']

 

Fair enough. Never said that myself though.

[diony]

If you can read' date=' I said that Dunn and Melancon wouldnt be on the list since they made their debuts. [b']And I like some performance instead of all hype. Heathcott hardly played[/b]

And Gary Sanchez is your #11 prospect

[Keeper]

On the whole, I think it's difficult for fans to rate prospects. We may have access to scouting reports and stats, but generally you have to go by what other people say and draw your own conclusions.