Bay vs. Holliday

[TheKilo]

This is foolishness. Holliday is a great left fielder no doubt, and would be a tremendous asset to the team, but you guys are seriously selling out to the greener grass on the other side of the hill.

 

Jason Bay is a consistent 30+ HR hitter year in, year out. He and Holliday have the same career high in HR's, but Bay has the second, fourth, and fifth most HR's in a season between them and has crossed the 30 HR threshhold two more times than Holliday has in a career track that has been as close to comparable as you're likely to get with two ballplayers.

 

Holliday is a good OPS hitter, but does not have that kind of raw power on his resume. Other than the truly awesome year in 2007, he's a slightly better offensive version of Kevin Youkilis, and I'm not sure what kind of "true #4 hitter" that makes him. (actually over the last 2 years I'd give the edge to Youkilis)

 

Also, this year Jason Bay had a slightly higher OPS than Holliday, in a tougher division. You lose practically nothing if you "settle" for Bay over Holliday.

 

I understand the sexiness of Holliday's batting average and his slightly higher OBP does make a difference, but what we're looking for is specifically a home run hitter. Both Bay and Holliday would serve more than adequately next year if called upon to do so and there are great arguments to go for either guy. Bay does NOT take a back seat to Holliday. He just has a different skillset.

 

Finally I'd like to point out that while Bay hit .267 this year he's a career .280 hitter. He's not THAT vulnerable. Even with that, he hit for more raw power than Holliday and got on base about as much.

 

I can't imagine that the team has done anything like stiffed or disrespected Bay when there's every possibility that he becomes the best remaining option on the market at some point in the offseason. If they did, it would be an incredibly stupid thing to do.

 

You're using Holliday's mediocre performance in his only exposure to the American League to DEFEND him? Oy.

 

Holliday performed at exactly the same level in 2008 -- at Coors' Field. I could throw your barb right back at you.

 

Holliday's banking almost entirely on his 2007 campaign while Bay is a model of consistency. Given the choice, I'd take the one more likely to repeat his best numbers. Right now, that's Bay.

 

Example, here are the posts Dojji made about Holliday v Bay and their likelihood to replicate numbers year after year.

[TheKilo]

What do you think about my concerns re: the Yankees getting Holliday?

 

It's the same concerns I shared when they landed Teixeira. Getting a young superstart, a top 5 player at his position, is never good for the Sox if the Yankees land that particular player. Your analysis is pretty much spot on.

 

Do you think that your concerns about Bay (his need to move to DH in the next few years) coupled with the enormous contracts the Yankees gave to Teix and A-Rod, mean that they would be unlikely to pursue Bay as aggressively as Holliday, as they cannot risk tying up the DH position lest A-Rod or Teix need to move there eventually? It seems reasonable to me.

 

This is a very salient point and one that I think gets missed quite a bit...in 4-6 years, when ARod and Tex are nearing the end of their deals, they will need to keep that DH spot vacant for them.

 

I don't think it would stop them from comitting long-term to Holliday, though.

 

I could see the Yankees being very interested in Holliday if the Sox are stupid enough to just sign whichever signs first (my money is on the non-Boras client, Bay), and not being that interested in Bay at all. I can also see the Yankees getting Bay and ultimately ending up with a logjam of talented hitters trying to get the DH spot.

 

I don't think signing Bay makes them stupid. I just think they wouldn't be as good as they would be had they signed Holliday.

 

I can't judge the worth without seeing any kind of contract number though....but if you ask me, I think Bay signs for Drew money while Holliday signs for Tex money.

[jacksonianmarch]

There is absolutely no doubt that the yankees will have an impact on the LF market. No doubt. There is a chance they put pressure on the sox and increase the chunk of change while hanging onto Damon and Matsui. There is a small chance they nab Bay based on his "yankee-killing" capabilities. But I do think they make a good run at Holliday. He's young, he's a good defender and he's fast. All things that make him look like an OFer long term. While with Bay, he looks like he should be a DH now, let alone how he will look in 4-5 yrs. I do think the yankees end up with Holliday if I was a betting man. Doesnt mean that is what is best for them considering the money coming off the books. But I do think they end up with him.

 

Hell, Wang at 6mil, Matsui at 13 mil, Pettitte at 12 mil (with incentives), Nady at 6mil, and Damon at 14 mil are all due to come off the books. Thats $51 million. If you consider that we could get Holliday around 17mil and potentially resigning Pettitte for 10 mil (with incentives) and Damon or Matsui for 8-10 mil, we could decrease our payroll by around 15mil while helping to shape the team for the future.

[Lester82]

"There is absolutely no doubt that the yankees will have an impact on the LF market. No doubt."

 

You know Yankee fans get some huge grin out of saying that. They haven't been able to buy a World Series (until maybe this year?) but they excel at just plain buying...

 

"I do think the yankees end up with Holliday if I was a betting man. "

 

Yeah, why not, just buy every elite free agent. Remember to add Mauer in a couple of years too and Pujols when St. Louis doesn't re-sign him

 

 

"we could decrease our payroll by around 15mil while helping to shape the team for the future."

 

All for AROUND 200 Million, give or take, how do you guys do it? It's tough, but you manage to pull it together...

[Lester82]

"while hanging onto Damon and Matsui."

 

Only half that equation is good. The Matsui part

[jacksonianmarch]

"while hanging onto Damon and Matsui."

 

Only half that equation is good. The Matsui part

 

both of them belong in the DH spot. Damon is great in Yankee stadium and would be a good guy to keep around because he could be had cheaply solely because his market will be significantly stunted due to his increased production in one park.

[TheKilo]

Jacko, you're really going to cut ties with Wang, a guy whom you have called a Cy Young caliber pitcher ad nauseam on this board?

 

What a shocker.

[example1]

This is a very salient point and one that I think gets missed quite a bit...in 4-6 years, when ARod and Tex are nearing the end of their deals, they will need to keep that DH spot vacant for them.

 

I don't think it would stop them from comitting long-term to Holliday, though.

 

You missed my point. I think it might stop them from committing long-term to Bay. Not Holliday. Holliday is likely to be able to field, Bay is less likely so. If the Sox can land Holliday my money says the Yankees play it safe with Damon or Matsui for another year or two and they will probably be just fine doing so....

 

I don't think signing Bay makes them stupid. I just think they wouldn't be as good as they would be had they signed Holliday.

 

It depends how they do it. If they sign Bay because it is easier, or because they're afraid to go against the Yankees or afraid to disenfranchise Bay, then I think it would be stupid... I don't expect that from this FO.

 

I can't judge the worth without seeing any kind of contract number though....but if you ask me, I think Bay signs for Drew money while Holliday signs for Tex money.

 

I think Drew money sounds about right for Bay. I proposed 18, 19, 20, 19, 18 over 5 years for Holliday, or something like that, with options and incentives, etc.,

[jacksonianmarch]

Jacko, you're really going to cut ties with Wang, a guy whom you have called a Cy Young caliber pitcher ad nauseam on this board?

 

What a shocker.

 

He's gonna be brought back on a minor league deal IMO. His shoulder just got reconstructed. He isnt gonna get a guaranteed deal from anyone. Once the shoulder gets opened, nothing is guaranteed.

[yankees228]

Kilo, I think they would be wise, next year, to start DHing Posada and A-Rod. Keeping A-Rod healthy through the duration of his contract is going to be an extremely difficult task, and I think he should DH about sixty games next year (I realize that is a very arbitrary number, but I'm just throwing something out there).

[jacksonianmarch]

You missed my point. I think it might stop them from committing long-term to Bay. Not Holliday. Holliday is likely to be able to field, Bay is less likely so. If the Sox can land Holliday my money says the Yankees play it safe with Damon or Matsui for another year or two and they will probably be just fine doing so....

 

 

 

It depends how they do it. If they sign Bay because it is easier, or because they're afraid to go against the Yankees or afraid to disenfranchise Bay, then I think it would be stupid... I don't expect that from this FO.

 

 

 

I think Drew money sounds about right for Bay. I proposed 18, 19, 20, 19, 18 over 5 years for Holliday, or something like that, with options and incentives, etc.,

 

 

Here's the deal. Bay will sign before Christmas. Holliday is going to sign mid January, remember he's a Boras client. So, if the sox go balls out for Holliday, then they risk losing Bay and then losing Holliday to NY. If Bay goes to the Mets and then the Yankees put up another last minute effort to nab Holliday, the sox would end up having to go after an old retread for LF. Remember, LF for the sox is a critical spot since it was the home of their best offensive player for 2009. For the yankees, LF was a role spot around the crux of the team at SS, 1B and 3B

[TheKilo]

You missed my point. I think it might stop them from committing long-term to Bay. Not Holliday. Holliday is likely to be able to field' date=' Bay is less likely so. If the Sox can land Holliday my money says the Yankees play it safe with Damon or Matsui for another year or two and they will probably be just fine doing so....[/quote']

 

No, I understood your point, and agreed with it. I'm saying that since Holliday is less likely to need to be moved to DH, it would not stop them from giving him a long-term commitment.

 

It depends how they do it. If they sign Bay because it is easier, or because they're afraid to go against the Yankees or afraid to disenfranchise Bay, then I think it would be stupid... I don't expect that from this FO.

 

Well, they botched the Teixeira thing pretty bad last season, I hope they learned from their mistakes.

[yankees228]

"There is absolutely no doubt that the yankees will have an impact on the LF market. No doubt."

 

You know Yankee fans get some huge grin out of saying that. They haven't been able to buy a World Series (until maybe this year?) but they excel at just plain buying...

 

"I do think the yankees end up with Holliday if I was a betting man. "

 

Yeah, why not, just buy every elite free agent. Remember to add Mauer in a couple of years too and Pujols when St. Louis doesn't re-sign him

 

 

"we could decrease our payroll by around 15mil while helping to shape the team for the future."

 

All for AROUND 200 Million, give or take, how do you guys do it? It's tough, but you manage to pull it together...

 

I'd love if they added Mauer and Pujols!!! You think it could happen?!!?!?

[example1]

Really long post. A reply to Dojji's good posts, via Kilo...

 

Originally Posted by Dojji

This is foolishness. Holliday is a great left fielder no doubt, and would be a tremendous asset to the team, but you guys are seriously selling out to the greener grass on the other side of the hill.

 

This is probably true, but even you have acknowledged that Holliday's grass IS greener, so can you blame us?

 

Jason Bay is a consistent 30+ HR hitter year in, year out. He and Holliday have the same career high in HR's, but Bay has the second, fourth, and fifth most HR's in a season between them and has crossed the 30 HR threshhold two more times than Holliday has in a career track that has been as close to comparable as you're likely to get with two ballplayers.

 

Check out the "Similar Batters" list on B-R. Yes, Bay is a comparable to Holliday, #2 on Holliday's list, actually, behind David Wright. Holliday, however, is a lower comparable to Bay. Not sure what to make of it... other than it is interesting. I take it to mean that Holliday is a more "unique" collection of skills than Bay is. Probably because of the combination of AVG and Power.

 

** Interesting note:

Here's that list of ACTIVE AVG LEADERS that I posted earlier:

 

Pujols-.3337

Ichiro-.3328

Helton-.3280

Vlad-.3213

Holliday-.3182

Jeter-.3172

Manny-.3132

Nomar-.3127

Magglio-.3120

Cabrera-.3112

David Wright-.3086

Chipper-.3075

Cano-.3065

A-Rod-.3048

Alou-.3032

 

Only the players in BOLD have a higher career SLG than Holliday. Of that fantastic list of active players who lead baseball in career AVG, only Pujols, Helton, Vlad, Manny and A-Rod have higher career SLG than Holliday. Make of it what you will, to me that's an impressive group.

 

Holliday is a good OPS hitter, but does not have that kind of raw power on his resume. Other than the truly awesome year in 2007, he's a slightly better offensive version of Kevin Youkilis, and I'm not sure what kind of "true #4 hitter" that makes him. (actually over the last 2 years I'd give the edge to Youkilis)

 

A slightly better offensive version of Youkilis is really, really good.

 

Through Youkilis's age 28 season, he had a career line of .280/.383/.434/.818

Through Holliday's age 28 season, he has a career line of .319/.386/.552/.938

 

Also, this year Jason Bay had a slightly higher OPS than Holliday, in a tougher division. You lose practically nothing if you "settle" for Bay over Holliday.

 

Holliday switched leagues, played in a tougher park for the first half, was unsure about whether he would be traded, etc., I don't think this year is a great comparison, but Holliday's OBP was still better by 10 points.

 

Again, I love the idea of Holliday settling down, getting his big paycheck and his spot in LF and playing a few seasons in the same place, in multiple pennant races. He would likely have Ellsbury, Pedroia and Victor Martinez on one side of him, Youkilis, Ortiz and Drew on the other.

 

His IsoD has progressed as such:

 

[table] YEAR | AVG | OBP | IsoD

2004 | .290 | .349 | .059

2005 | .307 | .361 | .054

2006 | .326 | .387 | .061

2007 | .340 | .405 | .065

2008 | .321 | .409 | .087

2009 | .313 | .394 | .083 [/table]

 

This is a .400 OBP kind of guy. His OBP went UP when he lost 20 points on his AVG between 2007 and 2008, and his IsoD stayed roughly the same in 2009, which tells me he made a "jump" of sorts in terms of his plate discipline.

 

What does that acquired discipline combined with that kind of career average (the ability to put the ball in play hard, basically) say? It tells me that if he manages to have another season where he's hitting .320 with a .400 OBP he will be an absurdly productive player in the middle of this Sox lineup.

 

I believe that in a bad year Holliday will have a season like Bay did this year (overall production wise) and probably be the 2nd, 3rd or 4th most valuable player on the team. In good years he will lead the club in WARP, or compete with the team's best pitcher.

 

I understand the sexiness of Holliday's batting average and his slightly higher OBP does make a difference, but what we're looking for is specifically a home run hitter.

 

Ahhh, maybe this is where we differ. I don't feel they need a HR hitter. I feel they need a hitter who is both selective and aggressive and who can hit a HR, but can just rip the ball too. They are harder to find than HR hitters.

 

Both Bay and Holliday would serve more than adequately next year if called upon to do so and there are great arguments to go for either guy. Bay does NOT take a back seat to Holliday. He just has a different skillset.

 

Different skillset means different numbers. Different numers mean different value.

 

Finally I'd like to point out that while Bay hit .267 this year he's a career .280 hitter. He's not THAT vulnerable. Even with that, he hit for more raw power than Holliday and got on base about as much.

 

Holliday's banking almost entirely on his 2007 campaign while Bay is a model of consistency. Given the choice, I'd take the one more likely to repeat his best numbers. Right now, that's Bay.

 

Taking out 2007, last 2 years (2008-2009):

 

Bay: .277/.378/.529/.907

Holliday: .317/.401/.526/.927

 

INCLUDING 2007:

 

Bay: .267/.362/.493/.855

Holliday: .325/.403/.555/.958

 

 

Bay may have been more consistent, but over the past 2 years and past 3 years Holliday has been the better player by a lot. Bay had a great year this year and played well when he was traded. Mike Lowell had a great year in 2007 and they've been regretting his contract since the beginning of this year.

[example1]

Well' date=' they botched the Teixeira thing pretty bad last season, I hope they learned from their mistakes.[/quote']

 

My hopes rest on this as well.

[TheKilo]

Example, great post - one minor quibble is comparing Youk and Holliday through their age 28 seasons, Youk got to the bigs later than Holliday did. I'd love to see a comparison of the two for their first thre or four full seasons.

[example1]

First 3 full seasons:

 

Holliday: 1632 PA: .310/.368/.533/.902 (162 G: 22 HR, 86 RBI)

Youkilis: 1926 PA: .293/..387/.483/.869 (162 G: 19 HR, 90 RBI)

 

 

First 4 full seasons:

 

Holliday: 2345 PA: .319/.380/.556/.935; (162 G: 30 HR, 115 RBI)

Youkilis: 2514 PA: .296/.393/.498/.891; (162 G: 21 HR, 91 RBI)

 

 

* Of course, those were Holliday's age 24, 25 and 26 seasons, and Youk's age 27, 28, and 29 seasons.

[Dipre]

Well, to finish the comparison, some may say defense in left field is "only a tiebreaker" but if the Sox are gonna go balls out on a player, it should be someone who can catch the ball, and will not be a DH by 2012, that player is Matt Holliday.

[rhet]

Just as long as he promises no more basket catches in the playoffs.

[BSN07]

Well' date=' to finish the comparison, some may say defense in left field is "only a tiebreaker" but if the Sox are gonna go balls out on a player, it should be someone who can catch the ball, and will not be a DH by 2012, that player is Matt Holliday.[/quote']

 

I agree. There going to need a DH eventually, but they don't need to invest 90+m in one. If there making that kind of commitment then it should be a player that contributes at the plate and in the field.

[TheKilo]

One point that I also think hasn't been touched on enough is the befit of Holliday hitting in Fenway for 81+ games. Stats aside, think of all the dents he'd put into the Monster.

[BSN07]

One point that I also think hasn't been touched on enough is the befit of Holliday hitting in Fenway for 81+ games. Stats aside' date=' think of all the dents he'd put into the Monster.[/quote']

 

I'm with you there. I think Holliday could put up huge numbers at Fenway.

[SCM33]

Well' date=' to finish the comparison, some may say defense in left field is "only a tiebreaker" but if the Sox are gonna go balls out on a player, it should be someone who can catch the ball, and will not be a DH by 2012, that player is Matt Holliday.[/quote']

 

UGHHHHHHHHH

 

Wasnt I the one who was parading Holliday since I dont know, the trading deadline!!!! While you/others were telling me that there wasnt that much of a difference/Bay was a more productive hitter because Holliday was overrated sicne he was sinking in Oakland?

 

I apologize way in advance if I am wrong Dipre, but I could of sworn we were butting heads about this at some point.

 

If not, im glad we agree. If we were butting heads, thanks for seeing my point finally.

 

Go back through the threads, I was pissed when the Cards got him, bc I thought we had a chance and at the time both Papi AND Bay were struggling along with the injury to Lowell. I was pissed at the package the Cards got him with.

 

PS. You are slightly more jacked than me.

[example1]

I for one am in favor of getting him as a FA. I was not interested in trading to get him.

 

The reason? With Boras as his agent he wouldn't sign a longer term deal so they would still have had to acquire him this off-season via free agency.

[Dipre]

I for one am in favor of getting him as a FA. I was not interested in trading to get him.

 

The reason? With Boras as his agent he wouldn't sign a longer term deal so they would still have had to acquire him this off-season via free agency.

 

This was always my POV as well.

[BSN07]

I for one am in favor of getting him as a FA. I was not interested in trading to get him.

 

The reason? With Boras as his agent he wouldn't sign a longer term deal so they would still have had to acquire him this off-season via free agency.

 

This was one of the very few hang ups on Hollidays there was for me.

[jacksonianmarch]

Buster Olney is reporting that the sox will likely not go past 4 yrs for Bay. I had read before that the sox are looking at a 3yr deal with a 4th yr club option.

[a700hitter]

Buster Olney is reporting that the sox will likely not go past 4 yrs for Bay. I had read before that the sox are looking at a 3yr deal with a 4th yr club option.

They had better start to realize that there is a substantial gap with the Yankees that needs to be closed.

[Dojji]

They had better start to realize that there is a substantial gap with the Yankees that needs to be closed.

 

And when they sign Bay or Holliday there will still be a substantial gap with the Yankees that needs to be closed. And playing just for this year is not going to close it. Not to mention what sticking too long with the wrong guy will do to us. Look what it did to the Yankees over the last few years.

[example1]

Buster Olney is reporting that the sox will likely not go past 4 yrs for Bay. I had read before that the sox are looking at a 3yr deal with a 4th yr club option.

 

Per usual, they're screwed if they do and screwed if they don't.

 

Do: end up overpaying by probably at LEAST 1 year, possibly more, limit future flexibility and competitiveness. See: Lowell, Mike; Ortiz, David.

 

Don't: have huge hole in lineup, don't have adequate offensive production now.

 

Only one team can stomach having players on their roster for too many years who shouldn't be there...