Bay vs. Holliday

[Dipre]

I would like to see Bay back . I dont think Holliday can make it in AL . But he can prove me wrong I hope lol . he's just going to command so much money .. I dont know what to think .

 

He has an .880 lifetime OPS against AL pitching.

 

In a similar sample size between 08 and 09 Jason Bay compiled a .905 OPS, so i don't see the enormous difference if you account for defense.

[yankees228]

Thanks y228.

 

Not a problem. Hope that helps.

[drock]

He has an .880 lifetime OPS against AL pitching.

 

In a similar sample size between 08 and 09 Jason Bay compiled a .905 OPS, so i don't see the enormous difference if you account for defense.

 

So what do you think ? can they really let bay go after his good 2 seasons ? maybe Holliday will be better in smaller park not like oak town

[Dipre]

So what do you think ? can they really let bay go after his good 2 seasons ? maybe Holliday will be better in smaller park not like oak town

 

My prediction for Holliday with the Red Sox?

 

.310/390/540, 33 HRs, 105 RBI.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

This I disagree with' date=' especially when it comes to defense and smaller sample sizes.[/quote']

Small sample sizes are a problem... but you can safely identify it as a 'small sample size' and come back to it later. As for defense, I'm not too concerned about it. The defensive talent gap between, say, Mark Teixeira and a run-of-the-mill defensive 1B is a whole lot less than that on the offensive side of the ball.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

Hey adam.

NO

[SCM33]

My prediction for Holliday with the Red Sox?

 

.310/390/540, 33 HRs, 105 RBI.

 

Im not sure about the 33 Homers. Isnt he more of a line drive hitter? The .310/390/540 seems to be a good outcome, but I think he hits less homers and more ribbis, more like 25-28 HR with 120-125 RBI.

[Gom]

I never said it wasn't flawed. It's flaws are well known and acknowledged by the guy who created the stat. Speaking of flaws, do you not see the massive flaw in your primary reasoning as to why he had a better year this year?

 

You are creditting his improvement to Teixeira saving him from errors. The UZR is broken down into a Range and Error component. His Error component did improve when Giambi became the regular DH (this improvement occurred before Teixeira was on the team). However his range component improved this year. He reportedly spent the entire offseason working primarily on improving his range. According to the metric, he did just that. He also stole 30 bases this year, a massive improvment from the previous two years, which lends additional credence to improved foot speed from his training.

 

You aren't reading the components of the stat correctly, which isn't surprising. Therefore, you don't get anything meaningful from it due to your skull density.

 

I know what the stat is supposed to do. I just don't think it does what you say it does. I didn't notice that great of a difference. Honestly. His range looked a little better, he seemed to have gained back half a step. Do I think that 34 year old Jeter was better defensively than 27 or 28 year old Jeter? No. Not in the least.

 

You know ORS...I don't spend the time researching things that are unfinished. Seriously. I look and see a stat that wildy varied with Jeter when he gets a GG firstbaseman as opposed to Giambi, and see someone like Tex have a negative UZR/150 rating...well, honestly, that's enough for me. The formula itself is meaningless. Once the formula is ironed out, fine.

 

Let me ask ALL of you a question:

 

If I came to you in spring training and told you I had a stat that would show that Jeter was one of the best defensive shortstops come the end of the season, and Tex would be a below average defensive firstbaseman, you'd tell me to stop inhaling the fumes from my cab.

 

Even now...if I told you that, you'd still laugh at me. ORS...get your head out of your ass and talk baseball.

[Dipre]

Im not sure about the 33 Homers. Isnt he more of a line drive hitter? The .310/390/540 seems to be a good outcome' date=' but I think he hits less homers and more ribbis, more like 25-28 HR with 120-125 RBI.[/quote']

 

Two words:

 

Green monster.

[Dipre]

NO

 

Bow before my awesome powers of deduction.

[riverside sluggers]

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/10357594

 

Very interesting. If the Sox lose Bay, but sign Holliday and Scutaro... they will be in better draft position

 

Red Sox have incentive to drop Bay — 8:59 a.m.

 

Would you trade Jason Bay for Matt Holliday and a high draft pick? The Red Sox just might. The Sox failed to reach a deal with Bay during their exclusive negotiating window, leaving them with a choice of the two top left fielders in the free-agent market. One rival executive, however, says the Sox do not intend to keep Bay even though they continue to negotiate with him.

 

Their preference, the executive says, is Holliday, raising the possibility of the Bay-for-Holliday "trade." Under baseball's warped draft-pick compensation system, a high-revenue team that exchanges one Type A free agent for another actually nets an extra pick -- a supplemental choice between the first and second rounds.

 

Oh, but this gets better.

 

If the Sox lose Bay and sign both Holliday and free-agent shortstop Marco Scutaro, they not only will receive the same number of selections, but also might end up in better draft positions. Signing Holliday would cost the Sox their first-round pick. Signing Scutaro, a lower-ranking free agent, would cost them their second- round selection. But, if the Sox lose Bay after offering him salary arbitration, they will gain two picks -- a likely first-rounder and the sandwich pick.

 

The only ways the Sox would wind up with a second-rounder for Bay is if (a) the team that signed him ranked in the bottom 15 of the overall standings last season or ( the team that signed him added a higher- ranking free agent as well. Both scenarios are unlikely. The Mets are the only team in the bottom 15 of the overall standings believed to be interested in Bay, and their chances of signing him appear slim.

 

Few Type A free agents if any, meanwhile, rank higher than Bay -- and few clubs would be willing to sign two such players. As for Holliday, the Yankees and Cardinals loom as the Sox's most serious competition, with the Mariners a possible sleeper. If the Yankees or another club signed Holliday, the Sox could make a renewed push for Bay or pursue other solutions.

[BSN07]

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/10357594

 

Very interesting. If the Sox lose Bay, but sign Holliday and Scutaro... they will be in better draft position

 

Interesting take on the situation.

[ORS]

While I'm a proponent of them going after Holliday, both because he's the superior player and because of the potential to improve their drafting position, they need to be careful here. I doubt Boras lets Holliday sign before Bay, and they run the risk of ending up with neither if Holliday is the last one there with the Yankees still needing an OF.

[BSN07]

While I'm a proponent of them going after Holliday' date=' both because he's the superior player and because of the potential to improve their drafting position, they need to be careful here. I doubt Boras lets Holliday sign before Bay, and they run the risk of ending up with neither if Holliday is the last one there with the Yankees still needing an OF.[/quote']

 

This is also a concern of mine. But I believe the Sox will make a very good offer with a deadline soon and if Boras BS's around they may move on and get aggressive with Bay fast.

 

But Boras should also know that if the Sox aren't in the bidding it will effect Hollidays price tag. Unless the Yankees bail him out again.

[Gom]

While I'm a proponent of them going after Holliday' date=' both because he's the superior player and because of the potential to improve their drafting position, they need to be careful here. I doubt Boras lets Holliday sign before Bay, and they run the risk of ending up with neither if Holliday is the last one there with the Yankees still needing an OF.[/quote']

 

I don't see the Yankees going after either, to be honest. They can sign BOTH Matsui and Damon for the price of Holliday, and also make it short term deals. I see Holiday with the Mets or Giants.

 

I think the team everyone is sleeping on is the Angels. They could sign Holliday [or Bay, but I think Holliday appeals to them more] to replace Guerrero. I can't see them losing Lackey and Figgins and Guerrero and getting nothing.

[ehaz]

Please God give me Holliday. Bay's defense is horrible, I don't want an overpriced DH a few years down the road. He didn't accept 4 years 60 million, the Red Sox shouldn't go a cent over that. Thanks for the memories, I'll take the draft picks and the obviously superior younger player.

[Dipre]

I don't see the Yankees going after either, to be honest. They can sign BOTH Matsui and Damon for the price of Holliday, and also make it short term deals. I see Holiday with the Mets or Giants.

 

I think the team everyone is sleeping on is the Angels. They could sign Holliday [or Bay, but I think Holliday appeals to them more] to replace Guerrero. I can't see them losing Lackey and Figgins and Guerrero and getting nothing.

 

Arte Moreno has publicly stated that he's interested in Bay, not Holliday.

 

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/sports_blog/2009/11/arte-moreno-no-to-holliday-maybe-to-bay.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Fe

 

This is old news, you need faster internet in your cab.

[Gom]

I stand corrected.

[Emmz]

Arte Moreno has publicly stated that he's interested in Bay, not Holliday.

 

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/sports_blog/2009/11/arte-moreno-no-to-holliday-maybe-to-bay.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Fe

 

This is old news, you need faster internet in your cab.

 

[rhet]

On top of that, he stated that Holliday hot dogged on other plays during the NLDS, and that was proven to be incorrect.

 

Rhet, you have to understand that your argument holds very little water, especially after your examples were invalid.

 

You are fee to believe that. I know what I have seen from him.

[yankees228]

You are fee to believe that. I know what I have seen from him.

 

When you claim that he hot dogged a few plays during the NLDS, and that is proven incorrect, do you think that your argument loses some of it's validity? Do you think, maybe, your memory of him hot dogging these plays is inaccurate? How many other games of his did you watch? Can you find any examples of him hot dogging plays?

[jacksonianmarch]

Holliday lost the ball in the sun/lights/crowd what-have-you. Watch the replay, he looked lost on it. He certainly wasnt hot dogging it

[Paradisecity]

Yeah- you generally don't hot dog balls that are driven at your nuts either.

[riverside sluggers]

Ok Im hearing that the rejected offer to Bay was actually 5 years/$60 million

[riverside sluggers]

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/baseball/red_sox/view/20091211mets_1st_to_bay_bid_good_for_65m/

 

The Mets made an offer to Bay, 4 years $60-65 million. Bay is believed to be looking for 6 years;/$96-108 million

[rhet]

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/baseball/red_sox/view/20091211mets_1st_to_bay_bid_good_for_65m/

 

The Mets made an offer to Bay, 4 years $60-65 million. Bay is believed to be looking for 6 years;/$96-108 million

 

Think the Sox would go 4 @ 17 per?

Is that reasonable to pay for him?

[riverside sluggers]

Definitely reasonable. Maybe for extra incentive, a team option for a 5th year that includes a buyout if they deem its best to move on after 4 years

[jacksonianmarch]

Someone will offer him 5 yrs, even if it is a vesting option. The longer the sox wait on this one, the more they are going to get burned. They have an absolute dire need for a middle of the order bat and they might be letting Bay go for a couple million dollars here or one season there. It isnt good business for an extremely big business baseball team

[Gom]

Someone will offer him 5 yrs' date=' even if it is a vesting option. The longer the sox wait on this one, the more they are going to get burned. They have an absolute dire need for a middle of the order bat and they might be letting Bay go for a couple million dollars here or one season there. It isnt good business for an extremely big business baseball team[/quote']

 

I agree. Right now, there are only two options to replace Bay. Bay himself, and Holliday. The Red Sox could be left holding the bag.

 

If Bay signs elsewhere, expect the Yankees to enter the bidding for Holliday just to drive up the price.

[rhet]

Just curious... who are the starting three Yankee outfieders next year as of now? And what happens to all the other ones on the 09 roster?