Official 2009-2010 Hot Stove season thread

[bostonule25]

we should blow away for HamRam, we really need him

[Dojji]

This is sensible.

 

But you miss my point.

 

Mauer's a FA after next year, Gonzales and Hanley are not.

 

It's as simple as that.

 

Sure, and I understand that. I think that's the only way anyone would ever countenance trading Mauer away -- is if he's in the last year of his deal and making salary demands that are so big that if you give in you don't feel like you'll have money left to build a team around him.

 

Of a group of players including Joe Mauer, Adrian Gonzalez, Felix Hernandez and Hanley Ramirez, if Mauer isn't at the top in value he's second to Felix.

[bsox0407]

i see cliff lee may be an option as a pitcher. he could be really good in boston.

[Dipre]

Sure, and I understand that. I think that's the only way anyone would ever countenance trading Mauer away -- is if he's in the last year of his deal and making salary demands that are so big that if you give in you don't feel like you'll have money left to build a team around him.

 

Of a group of players including Joe Mauer, Adrian Gonzalez, Felix Hernandez and Hanley Ramirez, if Mauer isn't at the top in value he's second to Felix.

 

He's at the top in value for this team, at least IMHO.

 

But the problem that i point out is a big one.

[bostonule25]

i see cliff lee may be an option as a pitcher. he could be really good in boston.

Philly keeps him

[Dojji]

He's at the top in value for this team, at least IMHO.

 

But the problem that i point out is a big one.

 

 

 

Yeah, but I think that if they trade for Mauer, a contract extension is going to be part of the deal, so that problem is only one if Mauer isn't keen to be a Red Sox long-term.

 

In which case we weren't getting him anyway.

[Dipre]

Yeah, but I think that if they trade for Mauer, a contract extension is going to be part of the deal, so that problem is only one if Mauer isn't keen to be a Red Sox long-term.

 

In which case we weren't getting him anyway.

 

Oh?

 

It wasn't part of the deal for Holliday.

 

Until such a thing actually happens, i'm sticking with going for the guy who'd under team control for more than one year so we don't find ourselves in the dilemma that the Cards are facing now.

[Dojji]

i see cliff lee may be an option as a pitcher. he could be really good in boston.

 

Cliff Lee makes me very nervous. I'm not sure how he'd react to pitching half his games at Fenway. He strikes me, perhaps unfairly so, as the kind of pitcher who would struggle in that situation.

[bsox0407]

daniel cabrera is on the market and he throws hard and if tought correctly could be good.

[Dipre]

Cliff Lee makes me very nervous. I'm not sure how he'd react to pitching half his games at Fenway. He strikes me' date=' perhaps unfairly so, as the kind of pitcher who would struggle in that situation.[/quote']

 

It strikes you unfairly.

[Dipre]

daniel cabrera is on the market and he throws hard and if tought correctly could be good.

 

Dude please.

[jacksonianmarch]

Oh?

 

It wasn't part of the deal for Holliday.

 

Until such a thing actually happens, i'm sticking with going for the guy who'd under team control for more than one year so we don't find ourselves in the dilemma that the Cards are facing now.

 

that's because it was a mid season deal. A lot of the offseason deals would require a contract extension

[Cocos Disciples]

Cliff Lee makes me very nervous. I'm not sure how he'd react to pitching half his games at Fenway. He strikes me' date=' perhaps unfairly so, as the kind of pitcher who would struggle in that situation.[/quote']

 

That's odd, considering his performance in Philly.

 

daniel cabrera is on the market and he throws hard and if tought correctly could be good.

 

Dear god no.

[bsox0407]

That's odd, considering his performance in Philly.

 

i think if cliff hit the market he could be really good in Fenway and really helpful on the road.

 

Dear god no.

 

he could always be turned into a bullpen arm.

 

 

plus i think tazawa is going to be like clay was this year.

[Dipre]

that's because it was a mid season deal. A lot of the offseason deals would require a contract extension

 

A lot. Not all.

[Dojji]

Oh?

 

It wasn't part of the deal for Holliday.

 

Until such a thing actually happens, i'm sticking with going for the guy who'd under team control for more than one year so we don't find ourselves in the dilemma that the Cards are facing now.

 

Holliday is a Boras client. If the Cards GM really thought he was going to be able to extend him I don't have a high opinion of his baseball cunning.

 

Other players, among them Johan Santana and Miguel Cabrera, have done what I suggest is possible with Mauer. There's enough of a precedent for it that I can say it's possible to do it in Mauer's case unless there's something specific saying it won't.

[jacksonianmarch]

A lot. Not all.

 

Take a look at the big time offseason deals. Holliday's with Oakland was strange because Oakland seemed to be trying to make a one yr pitch. But Johan was the last big pending FA traded and he got a big time deal. I will guarantee you that any Mauer deal will require a contract negotiation window

[example1]

Present your plan.

 

He has numerous times I believe.

 

I don't have any comprehensive plan to get Felix per-se (I think I can use his name now). This is the general shape of what I'm hoping the Sox will do:

 

The more I think about it, the more I think nobody should be shocked if it comes out that the Sox 'secretly' covet Matt Holliday and have decided that he is this year's target to be the highest paid Red Sox. He would fill the hole left by Bay in LF and provide them a guy they could feel more comfortable hitting 3rd, 4th or 5th, and possibly get them a draft pick.

 

We have Jason Bay because we happened to be able to get someone of his caliber for Manny. Few people believe the Sox coveted Bay more than Holliday at the time, it's just how things worked out. This FO is not known for being overly sentimental toward their own players if there is someone better, and I think this is especially true of their former players, now FA's, like Bay.

 

Before people stupidly s*** on Holliday's stint in the AL, please notice that his numbers were pretty good for a guy transitioning to a new league in a pitcher's park.

 

[table] 2009 | G | PA | R | HR | RBI | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |

OAK | 93 | 400 | 52 | 11 | 54 | .286 | .378 | .454 | .831 |

STL | 63 | 270 | 42 | 13 | 55 | .353 | .419 | .604 | 1.023 |

TOT | 156 | 670 | 94 | 24 | 109 | .313 | .394 | .515 | .909 | [/table]

 

He's a career .318/.387/.545/.933 hitter. That's good, and that .318--though filled with less meaning than many take from it--still has meaning. It means something more than luck when you see a guy who has had seasons where he hit .307, .326, .340, .321, .313 the past 5 full seasons. His OBP is still very high, but it comes from actually hitting the ball to get on base more than looking for walks. He's also got the higher OBP and SLG, and he's a year younger than Bay.

 

Holliday over Bay may be politically incorrect and it may be getting greedy, but it may also be a more significant change than many believe. By signing Holliday they do the same thing they did with Drew--purchase the best available at a position of need and relative scarcity in baseball--and they get the player they want, not the player they liked but got incidentally... If Holliday got comfortable and started doing in Boston what he did in Colorado, THAT would be a middle of the order, pitch around/don't make a mistake to him kind of bat.

 

In one season they would have turned Jason Varitek and Manny Ramirez into Victor Martinez and Matt Holliday.

 

If they felt they needed a bigger upgrade they could then sign Bay as well and plan for him to be the DH and backup LF for the next few years, or have he and Holliday platoon the position. Whatever, doesn't matter to me.

 

If, on the other hand, they believe that the addition of a full year of Martinez and the multi-year addition of Holliday (plus a healthy Dice-K and full season of Buchholz) may be enough to increase their wins for next year, then they may not pursue any of the other 'big bats' and then keep their minor-league resources for other needs.

 

Just adding Holliday they would have a lineup something like this:

 

Ellsbury

Pedroia

Martinez

Holliday

Youkilis

Ortiz

Lowell

Drew

Lowrie

 

Bolstering the lineup with VM and MH may be enough to keep them from needing to pull off an immediate deal with lots of prospects for a big-time hitter. Instead they can use all their resources on getting Felix Hernandez.

 

We know Theo covets him badly. He will be 24 and will be under control for long enough to entice him with a huge long-term contract. The only way to get him is to overpay for him, but overpaying for him gets you a pitcher unlike any other. He's a more polished version of Josh Beckett with better stuff. You build franchises around guys like that (hence Dojji's obvious reply that the M's won't let him go) and you overpay for them. How many prospects would we have given up for Pedro in his prime? 5-times the WARP? 10? He was irreplaceable. Many people think Felix will get to that irreplaceable point.

 

Buchholz could be included in the deal and it wouldn't bother me. The main reason I'm protective about Buchholz is because he is really valuable. If he's traded away for something questionable then I would be disappointed. If he's traded away a HOF caliber ace, I can't complain.

 

The following year Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols and Joe Mauer may all be available, and Ortiz and Lowell leave. If they still need to improve corner IF production at that point, they would have some options.

 

Even if we could get Felix and a cleanup hitter' date=' unless that cleanup hitter is also a shortstop we still have other priorities to address. I'd rather not have another year of Alex Gonzalez if we don't have to, and there are some good alternatives out there -- if you're willing to spend the resources to get them.[/quote']

 

I'm not as concerned about the SS position. If they can upgrade it they should, but if they get someone with tremendous defense then I think they could be okay.

[Dojji]

Take a look at the big time offseason deals. Holliday's with Oakland was strange because Oakland seemed to be trying to make a one yr pitch. But Johan was the last big pending FA traded and he got a big time deal. I will guarantee you that any Mauer deal will require a contract negotiation window

 

More to the point, it'll be the Mauer camp requiring it.

[bsox0407]

that's because it was a mid season deal. A lot of the offseason deals would require a contract extension

 

i think it wouldn't require a contract extension. plus that Halladay is gonna be a big gun up for trading during the offseason. also Riccardo got fired.

[TheKilo]

I'm not on the "trade Papelbon" boat at all. I don't like going into 2010 with Bard closing' date=' and certainly not Wagner.[/quote']

 

Add me to that list for sure. Amazing what last impressions leave on you.

[Dipre]

I'm not saying it's not possible.

 

I'm just pointing out the amount of variables in this equation:

 

Option A:

 

A) Minnie wanting to trade Mauer.

 

B ) The Sox having the parts Minnie wants for Mauer.

 

C) Getting the contract negotiation window.

 

D) Striking the actual contract.

 

Option B:

 

Sign him as a FA.

[Dojji]

daniel cabrera is on the market and he throws hard and if tought correctly could be good.

 

Daniel Cabrera is a meathead and a total waste of brilliant Godgiven talent. He is completely uncoachable and is too old for me to believe he will ever come out the way people once thought he would.

 

he's the Wily Mo Pena of pitchers, in other words.

[TheKilo]

I'd be on the sign Holliday/Bay and Lackey bandwagon.

[jacksonianmarch]

i think it wouldn't require a contract extension. plus that Halladay is gonna be a big gun up for trading during the offseason. also Riccardo got fired.

 

Halladay will be up for trade. But do you really want to offer what they are gonna want for him? Or would you rather sign a guy like Lackey, who isnt far off from Halladay, and then deal those prospects away for another hole filler or keep em

[bsox0407]

Add me to that list for sure. Amazing what last impressions leave on you.

 

i wouldn't want to trade papelbon he had one bad year. remember his years before 2009

[Dipre]

i wouldn't want to trade papelbon he had one bad year. remember his years before 2009

 

How exactly was this a bad year for Pap?

[Dojji]

I'm not as concerned about the SS position. If they can upgrade it they should, but if they get someone with tremendous defense then I think they could be okay.

 

That someone is not Alex Gonzalez. Just for the record. He's a competent professional defensive shortstop with a good head and good hands, and that's useful, but this is not Ozzie Smith we're talking about.

 

It'd be intriguing if that Cuban feller they got -- Iglesias was it? -- put himself in the mix. But that doesn't really sound like something in character for this team.

[Dojji]

How exactly was this a bad year for Pap?

 

For Pap it was a bad year.

 

Objectively, based on a reasonable view of what you'd expect from the closer spot, it was a fine year.

[bsox0407]

How exactly was this a bad year for Pap?

 

in comparison to others. killing the fans with loading the bases all the time. he was down on 1-2-3 innings costing him time and needing more off days. he has turned into a FB pitcher when he needs to bring back the splitter.