Jason Bay, Redsox ready to talk

[Dutchy]

But what happens if the Sox sign Holliday or another Type A? Don't they lose similar picks?

 

I'm pretty sure Saito's also a Type A, so the draft picks we'd get if he signed elsewhere would absorb the two we'd lose if we signed Matt Holliday. I know Penny's a Type B, and Smoltz has got to be at least a Type B as well, perhaps a Type A.

 

I think the only way we wouldn't gain draft picks from the Yankees for Bay would be if we maxed out on the compensation draft picks. And in order to do that, I think we'd have to not sign any Type A or Type B free agent at all (not likely).

[example1]

I'm pretty sure Saito's also a Type A, so the draft picks we'd get if he signed elsewhere would absorb the two we'd lose if we signed Matt Holliday. I know Penny's a Type B, and Smoltz has got to be at least a Type B as well, perhaps a Type A.

 

I think the only way we wouldn't gain draft picks from the Yankees for Bay would be if we maxed out on the compensation draft picks. And in order to do that, I think we'd have to not sign any Type A or Type B free agent at all (not likely).

 

Saito's also a Type A, so the draft picks we'd get if he signed elsewhere would absorb the two we'd lose if we signed Matt Holliday. I know Penny's a Type B, and Smoltz has got to be at least a Type B as well, perhaps a Type A.

 

I think the only way we wouldn't gain draft picks from the Yankees would be if we maxed out on the compensation draft picks.

 

Perhaps you could state this another way... I'm not sure I follow you. I hate the double submission/server problems thing.

[617_suffolkcounty_standup]

Good job by the Sox. He doesn't deserve a new contract.

[jacksonianmarch]

Perhaps you could state this another way... I'm not sure I follow you. I hate the double submission/server problems thing.

 

Saito would not be a type A most likely because he missed a ton of time in 2008. Penny might make type B status, but remember, he sucked in 2008. And Smoltz might make type B status if he pitches well, otherwise, I think he misses the boat. Bay is your only clear cut type A player.

[jacksonianmarch]

I doubt Epstein would mind taking two of the Yankees' 2010 draft picks off their hands.

 

they wouldnt. They'd only take one and then get a comp pick, which the yankees dont pay for. Essentially, the yankees would lose only one pick to Boston.

[WhiskeyBreath]

Saito would not be a type A most likely because he missed a ton of time in 2008. Penny might make type B status' date=' but remember, he sucked in 2008. And Smoltz might make type B status if he pitches well, otherwise, I think he misses the boat. Bay is your only clear cut type A player.[/quote']

 

Saito is going to be a Type A, Penny is pretty close to being a Type B but as of this month he isn't. Smoltz doesn't even qualify as a type B and he most likely won't at the end of the season.

[Dutchy]

they wouldnt. They'd only take one and then get a comp pick' date=' which the yankees dont pay for. Essentially, the yankees would lose only one pick to Boston.[/quote']

 

Bay's a clear cut Type A. And I guarantee the Red Sox will offer him arbitration if they can't extend him during their exclusive window. That's two prospects in real life (different that Jacko Land).

 

And unless Saito completely shits the bed and gets released, he'll be a Type A as well. Please look this stuff up, or provide a source before we have to go to the inconvenience of proving you wrong next time. It's a pretty regular happening.

 

Here's my source (something I've never seen you provide, even after multiple requests).

 

"If a Type A free agent who had been offered arbitration signs with another team, the team receives two first-round draft picks the following June – either a first- or second-round pick of the new team (depending on a team's record the previous season) and a “sandwich” pick between the first and second rounds."

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Major_League_Baseball_transactions

[Cocos Disciples]

The Sox get two picks, but he's saying the Yanks lose only one, which is correct AFAIK.

[Dutchy]

The Sox get two picks' date=' but he's saying the Yanks lose only one, which is correct AFAIK.[/quote']

 

The Yanks only lose one if the Sox don't offer salary arbitration. If Bay goes to FA he's doing so expecting the Yankees to overpay him, so I don't see any reason why the Sox wouldn't offer him arbitration (he's eligible if Bay doesn't accept the contract offer the Red Sox give him).

 

And if the Red Sox offer arb and Bay declines, BOTH of those draft picks come from the team who signs Bay as a FA.

[Dojji]

You're wrong, Duchy.

 

You get the top pick from the signing team and a compensatory "sandwich pick" is added to the 1a round courtesy of the league. if you offered arbitration and the player refused, or if you didn't offer arbitration, you get nothing at all.

 

The Yankees sign a lot of top tier free agents. It's entirely possible that a Bay signing would only cost them their third round pick or something like that because of the 2 other guys they will also sign.

 

As deterrents to signing a big contract go, losing picks isn't a huge one unless the signing itself goes kersplunk. Although I definitely want that pick back that we wasted on Lugo.

[Dutchy]

You're wrong, Duchy.

 

You get the top pick from the signing team and a compensatory "sandwich pick" is added to the 1a round courtesy of the league. if you offered arbitration and the player refused, or if you didn't offer arbitration, you get nothing at all.

 

The Yankees sign a lot of top tier free agents. It's entirely possible that a Bay signing would only cost them their third round pick or something like that because of the 2 other guys they will also sign.

 

As deterrents to signing a big contract go, losing picks isn't a huge one unless the signing itself goes kersplunk. Although I definitely want that pick back that we wasted on Lugo.

 

You know what? You're right. I had misread my source. Still, I'd be happy to take a 1st round pick from the Yankees.

 

I'm sure Jacko's gonna give me s*** for this, because this is his once a month on average since I've joined that he actually proved me wrong. And he's all about small victories, with the amount of times he's proven wrong on this site, but I could care less. He's the laughing stock of this site, and no one buys his ******** story about being a doctor.

[Dojji]

It might not be a first round pick.

 

It's their best remaining pick. If the Yankees know what they're doing they'll game the system to make sure their #1 pick does not go to boston.

[Dutchy]

It might not be a first round pick.

 

It's their best remaining pick. If the Yankees know what they're doing they'll game the system to make sure their #1 pick does not go to boston.

 

So they'll let Bay sit until February? I doubt it. Regardless of how much money they have, the Yankees don't control the market. When a FA sets a deadline, and the Yankees aren't ready to offer them the best contract, the FA will sign with another team.

[WhiskeyBreath]

 

The Yankees sign a lot of top tier free agents. It's entirely possible that a Bay signing would only cost them their third round pick or something like that because of the 2 other guys they will also sign.

 

I don't think there are enough top tier free agents this off season for that to happen.

[Dutchy]

I don't think there are enough top tier free agents this off season for that to happen.

 

I don't know. The Yankees aren't very intelligent. Their strategy for some time now has been so sign the top 3 FA's in a given offseason. But I doubt Bay waits until February or March to sign with a team just to the Yankees can maximize their drat picks.

[example1]

You know what? You're right. I had misread my source. Still, I'd be happy to take a 1st round pick from the Yankees.

 

I'm sure Jacko's gonna give me s*** for this, because this is his once a month on average since I've joined that he actually proved me wrong. And he's all about small victories, with the amount of times he's proven wrong on this site, but I could care less. He's the laughing stock of this site, and no one buys his ******** story about being a doctor.

 

I like what you have to add to this site, but I think you may want to back off of the Jacko hating for awhile. I don't think he's the laughing stock of this site; he's a member who has been around for years and who has taken plenty of lumps and still comes back and contributes to this site. I've seen him provide updates, commentary on Sox and Yankees moves, a good knowledge- base about the game, minor league/draft knowledge, international baseball knowledge, and, admittedly, a lot of Yankee homerism.

 

Personally I cringe when I see you bashing him (or CrespoBlows) because you've been here for 20 days. Jacko's 15,000 posts are spread over almost a thousand days, and Crespo's over about eighteen-hundred. CB has talked plenty of baseball, and Jacko has made plenty of good points. Even his most ardent detractors would agree...

 

Given your extensive posting thus far, I doubt that you've had the time to look back at their ten-thousand-plus posts to see all of their views. I'm always more hesitant about people who make hasty judgments on clearly insufficient evidence--whether ultimately right or not--than I am about people who I have communicated a lot with and who have an extensive history of working hard to validate their points with data. .

[SCM33]

I like what you have to add to this site, but I think you may want to back off of the Jacko hating for awhile. I don't think he's the laughing stock of this site; he's a member who has been around for years and who has taken plenty of lumps and still comes back and contributes to this site. I've seen him provide updates, commentary on Sox and Yankees moves, a good knowledge- base about the game, minor league/draft knowledge, international baseball knowledge, and, admittedly, a lot of Yankee homerism.

 

Personally I cringe when I see you bashing him (or CrespoBlows) because you've been here for 20 days. Jacko's 15,000 posts are spread over almost a thousand days, and Crespo's over about eighteen-hundred. CB has talked plenty of baseball, and Jacko has made plenty of good points. Even his most ardent detractors would agree...

 

Given your extensive posting thus far, I doubt that you've had the time to look back at their ten-thousand-plus posts to see all of their views. I'm always more hesitant about people who make hasty judgments on clearly insufficient evidence--whether ultimately right or not--than I am about people who I have communicated a lot with and who have an extensive history of working hard to validate their points with data. .

 

 

Agreed, say what you want about Jacko (ive always liked him, even with his bias, but thats what makes this fun), but hes paid his dues and taken his lumps, and is far from the laughingstock. I dont think its in your best interest to attack members who have been around the block man. Yankee lover or not, they have been around here for a while......so I am less likely to scan through their postings, like I do with the everyday guy who comes in, runs their mouth and disappears, or gets banned.

[Dutchy]

I like what you have to add to this site, but I think you may want to back off of the Jacko hating for awhile. I don't think he's the laughing stock of this site; he's a member who has been around for years and who has taken plenty of lumps and still comes back and contributes to this site. I've seen him provide updates, commentary on Sox and Yankees moves, a good knowledge- base about the game, minor league/draft knowledge, international baseball knowledge, and, admittedly, a lot of Yankee homerism.

 

Personally I cringe when I see you bashing him (or CrespoBlows) because you've been here for 20 days. Jacko's 15,000 posts are spread over almost a thousand days, and Crespo's over about eighteen-hundred. CB has talked plenty of baseball, and Jacko has made plenty of good points. Even his most ardent detractors would agree...

 

Given your extensive posting thus far, I doubt that you've had the time to look back at their ten-thousand-plus posts to see all of their views. I'm always more hesitant about people who make hasty judgments on clearly insufficient evidence--whether ultimately right or not--than I am about people who I have communicated a lot with and who have an extensive history of working hard to validate their points with data. .

 

I can only judge the posters by what I see. And so far I've seen that posters prefer Gom to Jacko by a 2-1 margin because Gom at least displays a fraction of objectivity, even if he doesn't have nearly the baseball knowledge of Jacko. Jacko can make a legitimately intelligent comment every once in a while, but most of the time his hard on for the Yankees completely skews his opinions and causes him to be a hypocrite.

 

And as for Crespo, from the time I joined this site until the time I put him on ignore, I never once saw him make a baseball related comment. All I ever saw him do was bash all the other posters on the site. That's why I put him on ignore. I'm not here to listen to posters argue over the internet. I'm here to talk baseball.

 

I don't care how long someone's been a member of the site. I judge them by the legitimacy of their baseball related arguments.

[jacksonianmarch]

I like what you have to add to this site, but I think you may want to back off of the Jacko hating for awhile. I don't think he's the laughing stock of this site; he's a member who has been around for years and who has taken plenty of lumps and still comes back and contributes to this site. I've seen him provide updates, commentary on Sox and Yankees moves, a good knowledge- base about the game, minor league/draft knowledge, international baseball knowledge, and, admittedly, a lot of Yankee homerism.

 

Personally I cringe when I see you bashing him (or CrespoBlows) because you've been here for 20 days. Jacko's 15,000 posts are spread over almost a thousand days, and Crespo's over about eighteen-hundred. CB has talked plenty of baseball, and Jacko has made plenty of good points. Even his most ardent detractors would agree...

 

Given your extensive posting thus far, I doubt that you've had the time to look back at their ten-thousand-plus posts to see all of their views. I'm always more hesitant about people who make hasty judgments on clearly insufficient evidence--whether ultimately right or not--than I am about people who I have communicated a lot with and who have an extensive history of working hard to validate their points with data. .

 

 

thanks example. We all have our disagreements, but the site works because there is balance

[jacksonianmarch]

I don't know. The Yankees aren't very intelligent. Their strategy for some time now has been so sign the top 3 FA's in a given offseason. But I doubt Bay waits until February or March to sign with a team just to the Yankees can maximize their drat picks.

 

Actually, that isnt true either. In 2008, we had a 1st and a 1st supplemental with the full complement of picks thereafter. In 2007, we had a full complement of draft picks. In 2006, we had a 1st, a 1st supplemental and no second. In 2005, we had a full complement of picks. In 2004, we had two first rounders, a supplemental 1st and a full complement thereafter. In 2003, we had the full complement of picks. 2002 was the last time we didnt have a pick in the first or the supplemental round. And in 2001, we had 3 first rounders and 2 second rounders.

 

So what does this show you? This shows that, while the yankees are signing top players, they are typically balancing them with a type A or a type B loss. I fully expect them to do that this offseason between the loss of Johnny Damon and probably one or two high profile acquisitions (maybe Lackey and Bay). And this yr was the only exception to the rule, but for the most part, we havent signed multiple top tier FAs in a season in awhile.

 

Also, Bay doesnt need to wait to sign in February for the sox to get compensation. Here's how the FA cycle works. The first 15 days post world series is the exclusive rights period. This is where a team can sign their players and offer arbitration. If a team doesnt offer arbitration and doesnt resign that player, then there is no penalty to teams signing that player. In Bay's case, I can guarantee you two things. He isnt signing in the exclusive window and the sox will be offering arbitration. So, Bay will have arbitration type A status following him wherever he goes. This arbitration status lasts until June 15th, so if he signs before that time, whomever signs him loses their top pick. Now the free agents are rated prior to the free agent market opening. If the yankees sign both Bay and Lackey, and Lackey is rated higher than Bay, the sox will get the Yankees second round pick and a first round supplemental choice, while the Angels would get the Yankees first round pick and a supplemental first round selection.

[BSN07]

I like what you have to add to this site, but I think you may want to back off of the Jacko hating for awhile. I don't think he's the laughing stock of this site; he's a member who has been around for years and who has taken plenty of lumps and still comes back and contributes to this site. I've seen him provide updates, commentary on Sox and Yankees moves, a good knowledge- base about the game, minor league/draft knowledge, international baseball knowledge, and, admittedly, a lot of Yankee homerism.

 

Personally I cringe when I see you bashing him (or CrespoBlows) because you've been here for 20 days. Jacko's 15,000 posts are spread over almost a thousand days, and Crespo's over about eighteen-hundred. CB has talked plenty of baseball, and Jacko has made plenty of good points. Even his most ardent detractors would agree...

 

Given your extensive posting thus far, I doubt that you've had the time to look back at their ten-thousand-plus posts to see all of their views. I'm always more hesitant about people who make hasty judgments on clearly insufficient evidence--whether ultimately right or not--than I am about people who I have communicated a lot with and who have an extensive history of working hard to validate their points with data. .

Agreed. Jacko wears his Yankee Blue tinted glasses some of the time, but we all do at one point(just some more then others;)). But Jacko's always got interesting thoughts and opinions, and that's what I look for most. He is willing to go out on a limb and completely miss the boat, and will come back for more:D

 

I like what Dutchy brings to the plate too. But I have seen plenty of posters start out good, get into pissing contest's with the few Yankees fans that are on this site and fizzle out quick. Hopefully Dutchy you don't fall by the way side.

[WhiskeyBreath]

 

If the yankees sign both Bay and Lackey, and Lackey is rated higher than Bay, the sox will get the Yankees second round pick and a first round supplemental choice, while the Angels would get the Yankees first round pick and a supplemental first round selection.

 

That is correct.

 

As of 7-12-09, Bay is rated 5 points ahead of Lackey. Lackey is currently a Type B guy who is only a few points away from becoming a Type A. I don't know enough about the formula to know if it's possible for him to pitch well for the next two months to become a Type A guy.

[092era]

Holliday - .276/.371/.424

Bay - .255/.374/.516

 

Less of a difference than you'd think.

[617_suffolkcounty_standup]

I think we are seeing the real Jason Bay right now.

 

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/7143/career;_ylt=AhiMEwk1EHHZa09eaE4fZ52FCLcF

 

He strikes out at will. And doesn't hit above .290 ever. Please do not re-sign this guy.

[jacksonianmarch]

That is correct.

 

As of 7-12-09, Bay is rated 5 points ahead of Lackey. Lackey is currently a Type B guy who is only a few points away from becoming a Type A. I don't know enough about the formula to know if it's possible for him to pitch well for the next two months to become a Type A guy.

 

if he pitches like he has recently, then he'll end up a type A.

[BSN07]

I think we are seeing the real Jason Bay right now.

 

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/7143/career;_ylt=AhiMEwk1EHHZa09eaE4fZ52FCLcF

 

He strikes out at will. And doesn't hit above .290 ever. Please do not re-sign this guy.

His fall off from the start of the season is worrying to some extent. I've been all for getting him re-signed, but am starting to lean towards another direction. What that direction is I'm not sure. If they could get him at around 12M a season for 3 or 4 years then sure. But if he's going to cost 15M+ it might be better to let him walk. There's no telling who might become available via trade come November/December. Teams might be looking to dump salary. Or the Sox could finally be willing to move some of their young pitching. Then throw Matt Holliday in there. The market might not be as hot on him as Boras would have wanted. We can expect his normal antics I would assume though. Wanting the Moon and Stars. But reality might set in and Holliday might be had at a reasonable price. I'd take him at 10-12M a season, before Bay at 16M or 17M(or whatever the Yankees offer him) at this point in time.

if he pitches like he has recently' date=' then he'll end up a type A.[/quote']

 

That's reasonable. I for one would hope he doesn't make it above Bay for obvious reasons. But it's probably gonna be close.

[The_Destroyah]

Agreed. Jacko wears his Yankee Blue tinted glasses some of the time, but we all do at one point(just some more then others;)). But Jacko's always got interesting thoughts and opinions, and that's what I look for most. He is willing to go out on a limb and completely miss the boat, and will come back for more:D

 

I like what Dutchy brings to the plate too. But I have seen plenty of posters start out good, get into pissing contest's with the few Yankees fans that are on this site and fizzle out quick. Hopefully Dutchy you don't fall by the way side.

 

makes you look like a genius now...nice prediction...

[617_suffolkcounty_standup]

Nothing to argue about with the Yankee fans right now. They went out and got CC AJ and Teixiera. We countered with John Smoltz Brad Penny and Nick Green.

 

Just for that fruggle behavior we deserve all the bad baseball luck coming our way right now. I wonder if this team has alot of 2006 in them where you fall behind 2-0 in the first and you know the games over already? Are we going to choke again Dave Magadon? How about you John Henry? Can you pay the extra 3 million a year to get Matt Holliday here and get this sissy Canadian Bay out of here? Holy s*** did anyone see Bay's throw home yesterday in the 7th?? That really bothered me. He sucks so f***ing bad that Lowell knew he was going to have to cut that Chad Pennington esque throw off and make a relay throw home.

 

Ok I feel better right now. But to make sure I don't take the fustration out at work I'll leave last nights game negativity at this.. Thank you Peds and Youkilis for giving your blood and sweat to this incredibly gutless team. It makes watching the games just barley watchable.

[BSN07]

Not sure if it's been mentioned but I'll throw it out there. What if the Sox traded Bay? His production has been marginal since the start of the season. He has shown he wants to test the FA market(completely well with in his rights). And that means there's probably at least an 80% chance he signs with the Yanks. Given their recent FA signings, the Sox might not even get the Yanks 1st rounder out of it.

 

I'm going to suggest maybe a 3 team deal of some sorts,

 

SF- Bay

Oakland- Combo of prospects

Boston- Holliday

 

 

SF is in utter desperation for a bat, Holliday would be nice, but SF and Oakland don't trade with each other like the Yanks and Sox don't. Bay could be the answer. He will be one of the better hitters available this off season. So offering him arb holds little risk.

 

Holliday is having a down season, and Oakland might be weary of offering him arb. Which could lead to uncertainty about compensation for him this off season. But if the Sox throw in a decent prospect, while SF adds 2 or 3 depending on how good they are, a deal could work out for all involved.

 

The Sox would most likely not have much fear in offering Holliday arb. They probably wouldn't mind him on a one year deal anyways. Then if he leaves they get picks. Or they sign him to an extension, which might be their goal anyways.

 

Just floating that out there as a possible scenario.

[617_suffolkcounty_standup]

Not sure if it's been mentioned but I'll throw it out there. What if the Sox traded Bay? His production has been marginal since the start of the season. He has shown he wants to test the FA market(completely well with in his rights). And that means there's probably at least an 80% chance he signs with the Yanks. Given their recent FA signings, the Sox might not even get the Yanks 1st rounder out of it.

 

I'm going to suggest maybe a 3 team deal of some sorts,

 

SF- Bay

Oakland- Combo of prospects

Boston- Holliday

 

 

SF is in utter desperation for a bat, Holliday would be nice, but SF and Oakland don't trade with each other like the Yanks and Sox don't. Bay could be the answer. He will be one of the better hitters available this off season. So offering him arb holds little risk.

 

Holliday is having a down season, and Oakland might be weary of offering him arb. Which could lead to uncertainty about compensation for him this off season. But if the Sox throw in a decent prospect, while SF adds 2 or 3 depending on how good they are, a deal could work out for all involved.

 

The Sox would most likely not have much fear in offering Holliday arb. They probably wouldn't mind him on a one year deal anyways. Then if he leaves they get picks. Or they sign him to an extension, which might be their goal anyways.

 

Just floating that out there as a possible scenario.

 

 

If the Redsox traded Bay, even if it were for grade B prospects. I'd litterally kiss Theo Epsteins head. I know I'm stating the obvious but I really do hate that man (Bay)