Reasons for Optimism

[Cocos Disciples]

Thanks. Over/under on his duplicate accounts now?

[BoSox21]

Over 1, under BOY levels

 

He'll probably call himself Billy Idol or something

[Dojji]

Jason Bay. Jason Bay is a reason for optimism.

[Dipre]

Tek has never been wonderful with the bat. And I never expect him to be. But he gave a reason to be optimistic about him. But if he hit's .200 I won't be shocked.

 

Beckett looks healthy, i won't go too overboard since it was his first start, just like Lester and Dice-K, but he showed flashes of 2007 Beckett.

 

Youkilis is carrying the offense. Maybe the warm California weather will get the bats going.

 

Lester looked good, not great. But you can't be on everyday.

 

Dice-K looked uninspiring, but it is his first start, I'll try and reserve judgment for now.

 

Ramon Ramirez has some sick stuff.

 

Oki was very shaky.

 

Lowell looked like he is recovering well.

 

O rly?

 

You seem to forget Jason Varitek was a top-5 offensive catcher in '99, and '03-'05, posting .850 plus OPS's on each of those years and also OPS+ at or over 101 for each of those 4 seasons.

 

You need to check your standards if you consider Jason Varitek to "never have been much with the bat".

 

Oh, and he also received MVP votes in each '03, '04, and '05.

[Youk Of The Nation]

Reasons for optimism:

 

This is the Boston Red Sox, not the Washington Nationals.

[Gom]

Smoltz. Biggest reason for optimism I can come up with.

[TheKilo]

Brad Penny was pretty good today aside from two pitches to Napoli.

[Beaneater]

Our 1-4 hitters gave us absolutely nothing yesterday and we scored 5 runs to win the game. A deep lineup gives optimism, even if (to beat a dead horse to a pulp) we don't have the vintage Papi + Manny combo. Baldelli/Drew, Bay, Lowell is good enough to be some other team's 2-3-4 in the lineup. Not a world-beating 2-3-4, I grant you, but not terrible.

 

As Kilo said, Penny is a cautious reason for optimism. We're not counting on him to give us anything, but if he can give something like 6 IP, 3 R every time, that's big.

[Youk Of The Nation]

The fact that we have a 'Reasons for Optimism Thread' by game 5 of a 162-game season is a reason for optimism, because fully half of the Sox fans on this board freak out and start uriniating on themselves and chewing the ends of their fingers off whenever the Sox win less than 4 of their first five games.

 

They'll be fine. You want some reasons for optimism?

 

This is a good team

This is a great team

This team will make the playoffs

This team has a legitimate shot at winning the World Series

This team has won World Series titles recently

This is almost the exact same team that won in 2007

I said so

 

 

...That last one is a big reason.

 

Now shutupandquitcherwhining.

 

Go Sox.

[BoSox21]

Reason: We've already beaten Anaheim once this year during the regular season, tying the amount of times we beat during the regular season all of last year

[Dipre]

Reason: We've already beaten Anaheim once this year during the regular season' date=' tying the amount of times we beat during the regular season all of last year[/quote']

 

Not only that, but we beat notable Sox slayer Saunders (the *******) while doing it!

[Death]

And, we have are ace pitching today, so we more then likely will win today.

[Cocos Disciples]

My reason for optimism: Maybe this is the one bad stretch in a year that every team has. Maybe this is the worst it's going to get. That'd be nice.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

My reason for optimism: Maybe this is the one bad stretch in a year that every team has. Maybe this is the worst it's going to get. That'd be nice.

As I said, if we take the next two, we'll have lost 2/3 at home to the reigning AL champions (we have a history of suckitude against Kazmir and Garza), and had a .500 west coast trip. Hardly the apocalypse.

[BSN07]

O rly?

 

You seem to forget Jason Varitek was a top-5 offensive catcher in '99, and '03-'05, posting .850 plus OPS's on each of those years and also OPS+ at or over 101 for each of those 4 seasons.

 

You need to check your standards if you consider Jason Varitek to "never have been much with the bat".

 

Oh, and he also received MVP votes in each '03, '04, and '05.

 

So your argument is based on 4 good seasons out of 12? The last one coming in 05.

[VA Sox Fan]

Shocking seeing me start this thread' date=' right?[/b']

 

We have a postgame grumblings thread, so I think we should have a spot where we talk about things that are encouraging.

 

My top 3:

 

Youkilis - picking up where he left off

Ramon Ramirez - came up huge today and was awesome last night

Jason Varitek - Two homers this series and didn't look helpless from the left side

 

 

Honorable mentions go out to Beckett and Papelbon, too.

 

 

Why, yes it is! Completely

 

Why not to worry

 

Posted by Adam Kilgore, Globe Staff April 14, 2009 01:05 PM

 

April lies. One month – let alone one week, which is what has elapsed in the Red Sox’ season – is an inadequate measure of a team. If the Red Sox were playing an NFL season, they would be about halfway through the third quarter of the first game. Maybe 2-5, Boston's worst seven-game mark since 1996, is unsettling, but there’s a good chance it’s a mirage.

 

First, there is one indicator that favors a turnaround. The Red Sox have a .250 batting average on balls put in play. (This means that if you take away home runs, sacrifices, and strikeouts, the Red Sox are batting .250.) The .250 mark is worst in the American League and better than only the Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies. The league average is .300. That means the Red Sox have run into some good defense, gotten unlucky, or both in relation to the rest of the majors.

 

The Red Sox have been built for a marathon. By the time June comes and attrition forces other team to wedge guys who should be in Triple A into their starting rotations, the Red Sox will be bulwarked by a fresh John Smoltz. Name another rotation where Clay Buchholz could have the spring he did and not make the roster. That advantage won’t be revealed in the standings for another 40 games or so.

 

And anyway, seven games is such a ridiculously small sample size to base any kind of conclusion on. Look at the seven-game records for every World Series champion since the strike:

 

2008 Phillies: 3-4

2007 Red Sox: 4-3

2006 Cardinals: 4-3

2005 White Sox: 5-2

2004 Red Sox: 4-3

2003 Marlins: 2-5

2002 Angels: 3-4

2001 Diamondbacks: 3-4

2000 Yankees: 4-3

1999 Yankees: 6-1

1998 Yankees: 3-4

1997 Marlins: 6-1

1996 Yankees: 4-3

1995 Braves: 6-1

 

Five of the past 11 World Champions failed to start better than .500 after a week’s worth of games, and only three post-strike champs had a start worth getting excited over. Would it be better if the Sox were hitting and Jon Lester was cruising through starts and they were in first place? Yes, of course. Would it really matter to the final outcome of this year if those things were the case? Probably not that much.

 

I’m not trying to ignore the fact that the Red Sox have played below their expectation over the first week. And there most definitely comes a point when “It’s early” ceases to be a valid excuse. But Dustin Pedroia is not going to finish with a 52 OPS+, and Lester won’t have a 1.82 WHIP, and the Red Sox aren’t going to hit .180 with runners in scoring position, etc. You can go on and on. It's just too soon to worry.

 

Now, if Daisuke Matsuzaka can't get past the fifth inning tonight ...

 

(Just kidding.)

[Dipre]

So your argument is based on 4 good seasons out of 12? The last one coming in 05.

 

Yes.

 

And it kills your argument because of a very simple logical equation.

 

You said he's "Never been much with the bat."

 

In which never means on no occasion.

 

But the fact that he has been an All-Star level performer on 1/3 (4 of 12) of his Major League seasons tells you that he has in fact not only been "something" with the bat, but he's been an above-average to All-Star level performer for more than half of his career, thus making your argument a moot one.

[BSN07]

Yes.

 

And it kills your argument because of a very simple logical equation.

 

You said he's "Never been much with the bat."

 

In which never means on no occasion.

 

But the fact that he has been an All-Star level performer on 1/3 (4 of 12) of his Major League seasons tells you that he has in fact not only been "something" with the bat, but he's been an above-average to All-Star level performer for more than half of his career, thus making your argument a moot one.

 

Sorry I guess I should have said Tek hasn't been relevant with his bat since about the half way point of his career, the last passable year being 05:D 4 seasons ago<_>

 

And don't give me the AS argument. He was on the squad last season when he had absolutely no right being there.

[jacksonianmarch]

Lowell, Papi and Varitek, 3 guys who father time and injuries have rendered significantly questionable for 09, start off 14 for 76, or .184.

 

Jed Lowrie is still having problems with a wrist he broke 6 months ago. Now the big savior is Lugo, a guy who everyone wanted to run out of town? Interesting.

 

Ellsbury has completely regressed, hitting .194 with 2 walks.

 

Jon Lester allowed 20 baserunners in his first 11 innings. Granted, only 2 walks.

 

DiceK has allowed 19 baserunners in 6.1IP and was lifted due to arm fatigue. Send your thank you letters to the WBC.

 

Right now, the sox offense is clicking on 2 cylinders with Bay and Youkilis. The rotation has Beckett firing on all cylinders and one good start from Penny, whose shoulder is a time bomb. Wakefield goes tonight to try and halt the 3 game skid.

[BoSox21]

its called Reasons for Optimism, jackass

[TheKilo]

Lowell, Papi and Varitek, 3 guys who father time and injuries have rendered significantly questionable for 09, start off 14 for 76, or .184.

 

Jed Lowrie is still having problems with a wrist he broke 6 months ago. Now the big savior is Lugo, a guy who everyone wanted to run out of town? Interesting.

 

Ellsbury has completely regressed, hitting .194 with 2 walks.

 

Jon Lester allowed 20 baserunners in his first 11 innings. Granted, only 2 walks.

 

DiceK has allowed 19 baserunners in 6.1IP and was lifted due to arm fatigue. Send your thank you letters to the WBC.

 

Right now, the sox offense is clicking on 2 cylinders with Bay and Youkilis. The rotation has Beckett firing on all cylinders and one good start from Penny, whose shoulder is a time bomb. Wakefield goes tonight to try and halt the 3 game skid.

 

I hate you so much, you have no idea.

[ORS]

That's what he's here for, don't believe it when he tries to tell you any different. He'll tell you he hates Yankee boards because of the sycophants, but look at how he posts about their players. Pure ball slobbering adulation for every player at every level. No, what he hates about Yankee boards is what he can't accomplish there. Baiting Red Sox fans.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

Lowell, Papi and Varitek, 3 guys who father time and injuries have rendered significantly questionable for 09, start off 14 for 76, or .184.

 

Jed Lowrie is still having problems with a wrist he broke 6 months ago. Now the big savior is Lugo, a guy who everyone wanted to run out of town? Interesting.

 

Ellsbury has completely regressed, hitting .194 with 2 walks.

 

Jon Lester allowed 20 baserunners in his first 11 innings. Granted, only 2 walks.

 

DiceK has allowed 19 baserunners in 6.1IP and was lifted due to arm fatigue. Send your thank you letters to the WBC.

 

Right now, the sox offense is clicking on 2 cylinders with Bay and Youkilis. The rotation has Beckett firing on all cylinders and one good start from Penny, whose shoulder is a time bomb. Wakefield goes tonight to try and halt the 3 game skid.

Its 8 games, you f***ing moron.

 

 

This beginning stretch is the farthest thing from a big deal.

[TheKilo]

Its 8 games, you f***ing moron.

 

 

This beginning stretch is the farthest thing from a big deal.

 

At what point do you come to the realization that this team just isn't that good?

[Dojji]

SOme time well after 8 games, against:

 

-- the team that beat us in the ALCS last year

 

-- the regular-season Angels

 

-- a team we've lost 23 of 25 games against over the last 3 years (including when we were good) at their park

 

-- Not to mention starting the season on a West Coast swing. Again.

[BoSox21]

Reason: The bullpen, excluding Lopez, was very stellar last night

[TheKilo]

SOme time well after 8 games, against:

 

-- the team that beat us in the ALCS last year

 

-- the regular-season Angels

 

-- a team we've lost 23 of 25 games against over the last 3 years (including when we were good) at their park

 

-- Not to mention starting the season on a West Coast swing. Again.

 

This team is offensively cooked at 3B, C, and DH, and the suck at SS and CF. They added no offense this offseason except for Rocco Baldelli.

 

The Yankees and the Rays improved themselves quite a bit.

 

I'm looking at an 88, 89 win team right now and that's just not going to get it done.

[Dojji]

Cooked not = cold. All we know at this point is that the bats are cold.

 

If you want to play defeatist I guess you have that right, but you're sounding like one of those ridiculous knee-jerk specialists that populate places like NYYFans.

 

For the record, yes we have not played well, but I'd like to bring up two points.

 

First, is that we haven't really been out of any games either. Seriously, it is a good sign we have yet to be blown out. Means that only a couple more things need to go right before we start winning again (as long as nothing else goes wrong of course)

 

Second, we've had a fairly nasty schedule, following up the Rays series with two road series on the West Coast, one against the Western division winner, another against a team that always shuts us down at their place. That's a little rough on anyone and our record in that stretch of games is hardly representative.

 

Also, we've had stretches as bad as this game in every season we've ever played. It's just bad luck for appearance's sake that we're having this one right at the start of the season instead of having the decency to give guys something close to their career average numbers before plunging them into a slump.

 

Also, our "shortstop controversy" was just solved by 2 trips to the DL, I expect a resurgence when we actually don't have a scrub at SS again.

[das11209]

At what point do you come to the realization that this team just isn't that good?

 

TheKilo - did you not kill me for saying the same thing in the other thread.

 

I just want to know if you changed your mind since.

[das11209]

This team is offensively cooked at 3B, C, and DH, and the suck at SS and CF. They added no offense this offseason except for Rocco Baldelli.

 

The Yankees and the Rays improved themselves quite a bit.

 

I'm looking at an 88, 89 win team right now and that's just not going to get it done.

 

Glad we finally agreed.

 

Edit - They were not good last year either. They got career years from D-Ped, Youk etc. that might have masked the need to make an upgrade and FO has missed that part.