Sox still pursuing Tek

[Dojji]

(shrink that image please)

 

meh' date=' its 2 mil[/quote']

 

It's more the games played guarantee that worries me

[VA Sox Fan]

** AMEN **

 

Thank Gawd the deal is done! Yeah Tek!

[example1]

Yep, good to have that done. Now they should continue their quest for that catcher of the future (COTF) into next season so they don't have to do this again in two years while Tek is in a retirement home.

[Papelbon58]

It's essentially a two year deal. The team option seems to show me that the team wanted to have him for two and is just minimizing their risk, such as if he hits below .100 or something catastrophic like that. I still hope they pull the trigger on a deal for a young catcher.

[example1]

So, Texas, we have a catcher now, but we're still offering you a really nice young pitcher + for that guy Saltalamacchia. What do you think?

-Theo

 

*I would say if the Sox land another young catcher for less than Buchholz then they have really done a nice job after the frustrating Teixeira situation.

[soxfan17881]

(shrink that image please)

 

Done

[BoSox21]

lol, Heyman is such a Boras schill

 

The new deal, with its mutual options, guarantees Varitek two years. It is also said to include performance bonuses.

 

How does it guarantee two years? If the Sox don't want to $5 mil for Tek in 2010 and Tek isn't happy making $3 mil, then there's no second year

[diony]

There's your 'catcher of the future'.

 

2 years, just in time for Joe Mauer

[Papelbon58]

I don't see the Sox going for Salty now. I mean, it's certainly possible and he is a good option, but he is also very much ready now, and they will most likely try to get a less experienced player so they don't waste two years.

[riverside sluggers]

couldnt imagine him in a different uni

[BoSox21]

It buys them time to see if Kottaras either continues to improve or if he's topped out

[Cocos Disciples]

Not too pleased about it being two years, but at least it's over.

[italstallianion]

I agree with the general consensus here...at least the waiting and head banging is over...well fiscally anyway...

[riverside sluggers]

Jacoby Ellsbury cf

Dustin Pedroia 2b

David Ortiz dh

Kevin Youkilis 1b

J.D. Drew rf

Jason Bay lf

Mike Lowell 3b

Jason Varitek c

Jed Lowrie/Julio Lugo ss

[soxfan17881]

I know he's a liability in several ways, but I'm happy he'll still be there this season. I know it makes little sense from a practical perspective, but I'm old fashioned.

[BoSox21]

I'm curious to see what happens with the situation behind Varitek. I imagine they'll let Bard, Brown and Kottaras battle for the backup spot in ST or just let Bard and Brown battle and let Kottaras get as many ABs in Pawtucket as possible and hope that he progresses enough where having Varitek make $3 mil to backup Kottaras next season becomes an attractive option.

[TheKilo]

It's the same genius offer I lauded earlier in the thread, but with $2m in easily attainable incentives....not too crazy about that, but not too upset about it either.

 

There needs to be a 50/50 split with whomever he plays with.

[BoSox21]

which there won't be

[BoSox21]

Jacoby Ellsbury cf

Dustin Pedroia 2b

David Ortiz dh

Kevin Youkilis 1b

J.D. Drew rf

Jason Bay lf

Mike Lowell 3b

Jason Varitek c

Jed Lowrie/Julio Lugo ss

 

I still want

 

JD Drew

Pedroia

Ortiz

Youkilis

Bay

Lowell

Lowrie

Varitek

Ellsbury

 

until Jacoby starts living up to some potential

[Dipre]

There's your 'catcher of the future'.

 

2 years, just in time for Joe Mauer

 

Well, they might just make a run at him.

 

And if ya ask me , FO's got a huge boner on Mauer.

[jacksonianmarch]

Well, they might just make a run at him.

 

And if ya ask me , FO's got a huge boner on Mauer.

 

join the club. A lot of teams will be looking to pay ridiculous amounts for Mauer. The question is, whether one of our kids can stick well enough in that time frame to cause either team to hold back.

[laxtonto]

For all of those people that keep saying that the reason to keep Tek was his ability to call a game, please read Rob Neyer's latest blog entry on ESPN. Since I don't have enough posts some one will have to post the link latter.

 

 

 

In a nut shell,

Using a method to "match" innings, he comes up with a 4.77 ERA with Varitek behind the plate, and 4.66 for other Red Sox catchers. Stripping Tim Wakefield from the study -- Varitek rarely catches Wakefield -- the numbers are 4.80 for Varitek, 4.63 for everyone else.

 

Yes, there is a great deal of noise in the data. Yes, there probably is a more sophisticated way to study the issue. But it's hard to argue with the notion that if Red Sox pitchers were better with Varitek behind the plate, we would expect to see different results than we're seeing here.

 

So once again why did the Sox just sign him to a 2 year deal, with the fist year starting at 5M? If he was such a factor behind the plate by calling a game, the pitchers that he caught at least 5 times had and ERA higher than the minimum 5 times he didn't catch them. If he was such a significant upgrade there should be a huge shift here in the other direction, not a slight shift towards having a better ERA without Tek.

[jacksonianmarch]

That is an interesting stat lax.

[italstallianion]

For all of those people that keep saying that the reason to keep Tek was his ability to call a game, please read Rob Neyer's latest blog entry on ESPN. Since I don't have enough posts some one will have to post the link latter.

 

 

 

In a nut shell,

 

So once again why did the Sox just sign him to a 2 year deal, with the fist year starting at 5M? If he was such a factor behind the plate by calling a game, the pitchers that he caught at least 5 times had and ERA higher than the minimum 5 times he didn't catch them. If he was such a significant upgrade there should be a huge shift here in the other direction, not a slight shift towards having a better ERA without Tek.

 

 

 

I thought that the Red Sox had a team ERA of 4.01 last year. With those catcher's numbers, how is that possible??

[Dipre]

Sample sizes, anyone?

[diony]

For all of those people that keep saying that the reason to keep Tek was his ability to call a game, please read Rob Neyer's latest blog entry on ESPN. Since I don't have enough posts some one will have to post the link latter.

 

In a nut shell,

 

So once again why did the Sox just sign him to a 2 year deal, with the fist year starting at 5M? If he was such a factor behind the plate by calling a game, the pitchers that he caught at least 5 times had and ERA higher than the minimum 5 times he didn't catch them. If he was such a significant upgrade there should be a huge shift here in the other direction, not a slight shift towards having a better ERA without Tek.

 

Are you serious?

 

Red Sox Catchers in 2008

 

Varitek 120 GS: 1041.1 Inn

 

Cash 42 GS: 372 Inn (Oh, that's the biggest sample size EVER)

 

Theres your 162 games. Both Sox catchers combined for 1413.1 Inn behind the plate.

 

Tek played 74% of those innings at the catcher position, Cash only 26%. Can you notice the sample size is bigger for Tek than for Cash? The difference is about 669 Inn. So you can't compare the Soxs starting catcher with Wake's caddie using ERA.

 

And the difference is? 4.77 with Tek and 4.66? And Neyer is using ERA to say pitchers do better without Tek when the sample size is so small.

 

I don't remember Cash replacing Tek when either Timlin or Aardsma came into the game with their ERAs over 5, it was always TEK! It was also Tek that catched Buchholz.

 

But yeah I assume you think is Tek's fault that THEY SUCKED.

 

And Cash was Wake's catcher, so he catched his 30 starts and his 181 IPs with a 4.13 ERA. While Tek mostly handled the rest of the staff.

 

That is an interesting stat lax.

 

ASS

[laxtonto]

You guys are missing the point, this covers ALL pitchers to EVER pitch to Tek wearing a Red Sox uniform. Not just last season, for the past 11 years

 

At the first breakdown, there does seem to be a difference. Over the last 11 years, Red Sox starting pitchers have put up a 4.19 ERA in 1182 Varitek starts, compared with a 4.38 ERA in 624 starts by other Red Sox catchers. That's a difference of about 30 runs over the course of a season, or about 3 wins. Which is pretty significant.

 

It doesn't take much consideration, though, to recognize that this isn't an acceptable answer. The catchers haven't caught all of the same pitchers. Varitek caught 57 of Bronson Arroyo's 61 Red Sox starts, but only 2 of David Cone's 25. He caught all 16 of Wade Miller's starts, but only one of David Pauley's five.

 

So the next thing I did was winnow the data a little bit, and look at just those pitchers who made at least five starts with Varitek and at least five starts with other Red Sox catchers. That gives us a data set of 23 pitchers. 11 compiled lower ERAs with Varitek behind the plate. 12 compiled lower ERAs with other catchers behind the plate. Despite that, looking at the cumulative numbers Varitek looks even better, putting up a 4.02 catcher's ERA vs. 4.31 for his backups.

 

We still don't have a good data set, though. As we all know, Varitek has caught Tim Wakefield very little over the years, with most of Wakefield's starts going to the backup catchers. The Red Sox have also had some of the best pitchers in baseball, and the starts of Pedro Martinez, Curt Schilling and Josh Beckett have been predominantly caught by Jason Varitek. So there's a little more to be done. Let's face it - any catcher who caught a lot of Pedro Martinez starts in 1999 and 2000, as Varitek did, is going to look fantastic in a catcher's ERA comparison. Catching Tim Wakefield doesn't have the same advantage.

 

So what I did next was normalize everyone's statistics, multiplying or dividing to produce a stat line for 50 innings pitched. That is, both Varitek and the backups are credited with 50 innings of Wakefield, 50 innings of Pedro, etc.

 

Red Sox "Catcher ERA" - 1998-2008 ERA WHIP

 

Varitek 4.77 1.4

 

Other Catchers 4.66 1.41

 

 

Let's make one more tweak to the data. Including Tim Wakefield would tend to mitigate against Varitek's presumed game-calling skill. So I pulled him out of the data.

 

 

 

Red Sox "Catcher ERA" - 1998-2008 (Starters w/out Tim Wakefield) ERA WHIP

 

Varitek 4.8 1.41

 

Other Catchers 4.63 1.4

 

 

The problem is to many people want to give Tek credit for catching guys that already are very good pitchers. If you normalize the data you find out that this really isn't true (which also gets rid of the sample size issue for the most part).

[Dipre]

You guys are missing the point, this covers ALL pitchers to EVER pitch to Tek wearing a Red Sox uniform. Not just last season, for the past 11 years

 

 

 

 

The problem is to many people want to give Tek credit for catching guys that already are very good pitchers. If you normalize the data you find out that this really isn't true (which also gets rid of the sample size issue for the most part).

 

You can't be serious?

 

Do you know how many SUCK ASS pitchers 'Tek has caught during his Red Sox career?

 

And i guess your journalist douchebag idol, who has probably never even played f***ing softball has a much more informed and important opinion than that of (probably) future HOFs Pedro Martinez and Curt Schilling, as well as young stars such as Josh Beckett and Jon Lester.

 

But nah, i'll go with the genius who didn't take into account the amount of "dead years" Varitek has caught for this team, hell, if all, the 0.10 difference should tell you just how awesome a game-caller Varitek really is.

[jacksonianmarch]

All I am saying is that Tek's catching skills are overblown and most data you try to gather basing his effectiveness by pitcher ERA is flawed or not in his favor. His offense is terrible, his blocking skills have diminished, his arm is gone. All he has left that is making him money are the intangibles and how he calls a game.

[laxtonto]

You can't be serious?

 

Do you know how many SUCK ASS pitchers 'Tek has caught during his Red Sox career?

 

And i guess your journalist douchebag idol, who has probably never even played f***ing softball has a much more informed and important opinion than that of (probably) future HOFs Pedro Martinez and Curt Schilling, as well as young stars such as Josh Beckett and Jon Lester.

 

But nah, i'll go with the genius who didn't take into account the amount of "dead years" Varitek has caught for this team, hell, if all, the 0.10 difference should tell you just how awesome a game-caller Varitek really is.

 

 

Well it seems like you never read the underlying study. This is every pitcher that Tek has caught 5 times or more that also has pitched elsewhere. That way good or bad that does not matter.

 

Your problem is your lazy. Actually read the information before instantly complaining about it becasue it goes against what ever you think is correct. After reading it try to make and intelligent argument. Until you can do that, you just sound like a child that is unwilling to believe in something becasue it goes against what you think is right.