J.J. Hardy?

[HeadOfSoxNation]

So the BrewCrew apparently thinks that their hotshot AA shortstop Alcides Escobar will be big-league ready by the end of the season and may be looking to deal J.J. Hardy over the winter. Who thinks the Sox make a run at him?

[Thumper]

Where does that leave Lowrie?

 

I suppose it all depends how much Hardy will cost. Which I doubt would be much.

 

I think they'd make a move because while Lowrie is still good at the plate, there are some defensive skills he could tweak.

 

I'd take Hardy.

[msubulldogs21]

I wouldn't really expect the Sox to make a run at Hardy. Chances are they just stick with Lowrie and let him develop, which I think is the right move anyway.

[jacksonianmarch]

I dont see Hardy being cheap. Cmon now. He'll be 26, he's OPSing .800 and is on pace for 25 homers out of the SS position. If anything, Hardy would be moved to 2b for Escobar since Weeks has been terrible.

[ORS]

I don't see the need for this move. I think they will be roughly equivalent offensive players. Hardy with more pop, Lowrie with more OBP and better baserunning. Why give up any kind of talent to make a lateral move? Hardy is a 26 y/o, 20 HR SS. He won't come cheap.

[Soxfan1]

Whatever happened to Weeks?

 

And no need. Lowrie is fine and Hardy will cost us prospects that aren't Lowrie so we will be stuck with two young talented SS's.

[Cocos Disciples]

Whatever happened to Weeks?

 

Well he's still their 2B, but the numbers aren't so nice.

[yankee20715]

I dont see Hardy being cheap. Cmon now. He'll be 26' date=' he's OPSing .800 and is on pace for 25 homers out of the SS position. If anything, Hardy would be moved to 2b for Escobar since Weeks has been terrible.[/quote']

 

I def agree with you on that. If he was 34 he would be real cheap, but at his age your going to have to give something up.

 

And Weeks is so ridiculously streaky its comical...but of course his streaks are 1 good game 10 bad games.

[BoSox21]

Lowrie in '09, with a cheap veteran backup not named Alex Cora

[Dojji]

Imagine how good our infield would be with Hardy as the starting SS and Lowrie as the backup 2B/SS/3B providing one of the best switch-hitting bench bats in the league

[Cocos Disciples]

I strongly doubt we even go after him.

[Dojji]

I strongly doubt we even go after him.

 

I think we di a Theo Special -- sort of flirt with the Brewers about a price, but waffle about giving that much until someone else blows him away.

 

I'm guessing Hardy will be a Dodger next year.

 

One thing I do know -- you don't pass up on a possible middle of the order SS bat because of a kid without a year's service time. Not unless you're sure of him.

[Bostonsportsgreenlava]

I've taken a huge liking to Jedie of late. But Hardy being a dead pull hitter is awful tempting.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

Tempting but no.

[Dojji]

"No, we're not going to go after promising veteran players entering their peak because we have young players at the same position who are good enough."

 

Paraphrasing GM Brian Cashman on the state of the Yankee rotation.

 

If you can nail down shortstop with a quality player like Hardy, you don't let a pre-arb kid stand in the way -- especially if you can clear a path for both men to play for the price of losing a pair of liabilities.

[BigPapiEnFuego]

I wouldn't mind hardy, but I'm pretty cool with Lowrie starting next year. He's getting the job done now, so why give up something you just so you can get basically they same but with a little bit more power?

[ORS]

"No, we're not going to go after promising veteran players entering their peak because we have young players at the same position who are good enough."

 

Paraphrasing GM Brian Cashman on the state of the Yankee rotation.

 

If you can nail down shortstop with a quality player like Hardy, you don't let a pre-arb kid stand in the way -- especially if you can clear a path for both men to play for the price of losing a pair of liabilities.

I don't see this as them favoring Jed Lowrie solely due to the economics of it. We are looking at two ~.800 OPS offensive players who get there by a different route. Hardy's is by hitting the ball out of the park more. Lowrie's is by making less outs.

 

The biggest fault of OPS is that it combines SLG and OBP putting them on the same scale. While their true scales vary by 4x (4.000 for SLG, and 1.000 for OBP), one point of OBP is worth approximately 1.7 points of SLG. With that in mind, Lowrie becomes the better offensive producer.

 

As for clearing a path to play both, this involves either moving Pedroia or putting of these guy at 3B. I'm not in favor of option 1. Option 2 moves them to a spot where the benefit of their offense is mitigated.

 

I'm content standing pat, based on both an analysis of the numbers and what I've seen of Lowrie's play.

[Dojji]

 

As for clearing a path to play both, this involves either moving Pedroia or putting of these guy at 3B. I'm not in favor of option 1. Option 2 moves them to a spot where the benefit of their offense is mitigated.

 

Or option 3, use Lowrie's ability to play multiple infield positions and combine it with his ability to be a LHH platoon partner for 3 RHH positions and turn him into what Alex Cora should have been. I have a hard time believing you can't find at least 90-100 games worth of playing time for Jed, even behind Hardy, under those circumstances.

[Youk Of The Nation]

So the Brewers, after acquiring CC, will replace JJ at SS with a guy from AA?

 

Cool.

[ORS]

Or option 3' date=' use Lowrie's ability to play multiple infield positions and combine it with his ability to be a LHH platoon partner for 3 RHH positions and turn him into what Alex Cora should have been. I have a hard time believing you can't find at least 90-100 games worth of playing time for Jed, even behind Hardy, under those circumstances.[/quote']

So, a) the better player plays behind the lesser player, and you give up minor league talent to acquire a guy you don't plan on playing full-time. Sorry, just don't see it.

[Dojji]

Lowrie is the better player than Hardy? Not seeing your point.

[ORS]

Do you agree that both are likely to produce at an ~.800 OPS level?

[Dojji]

Do you agree that both are likely to produce at an ~.800 OPS level?

 

Sure, but what's that got to do with this discussion? you do realize I'm calling for both men to be on the roster, right?

 

(actually Lowrie isn't "likely" to do that yet, although his prospects are as good offensively as they'd need to be to SUGGEST he'll do that well -- he's still a rookie)

[ORS]

You are questioning my statement that Lowrie is the better player. Assuming both are about an .800 OPS short-stop, Lowrie's offensive production is better because it is predicated on making fewer outs. Just to see what I'm talking about, let's use the 1.7 conversion that has been determined to get OBP and SLG on approximately the same scale. Also, I'll extend the assumption to include that Hardy is a .330/.470 and Lowrie a .360/.440 (this is in line with what they've done in MLB and MiLB to date).

 

Lowrie = (1.7 x .360) + .440 = 1.052

Hardy = (1.7 x .330) + .470 = 1.031

 

Now, keep in mind this is on an adjusted scale. MVP caliber season's typically end up .400/.600 or better, and .400/.600 is 1.280. The difference is not large, but it's big enough to not ignore. Lowrie is the better player.

 

Furthermore, this ignores the fact that a) Hardy has not had one MiLB season that came close to Lowrie's from last year, and Lowrie leads Hardy by .070 OPS points this year.

 

Yes, I realize you are talking about having them on the same roster, and my original point still stands. Why do I care if we have both, if a condition of having both is that Lowrie, the better player, is the backup? You posit that 90-100 games out of Lowrie is an easy number to hit with him as the backup. Big deal, 150+ with him as the starter is better.