Bullpen Concerns

[jacksonianmarch]

I think Buchholz is ready to come up as a starter and it might be time for Masterson to assume his role as pen arm. His stuff in a short stint would be nasty.

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

I think Buchholz is ready to come up as a starter and it might be time for Masterson to assume his role as pen arm. His stuff in a short stint would be nasty.

 

I agree completely. As well as Masterson has done...Clay Buchholz is the superior pitcher and we are wasting innings for him in AAA. I would not let Masterson make his start against the Yankees as that lineup is composed of mainly left handed batters and Masterson stuggles against LH and dominates RH.

[ksushi]

It isn't wasting innings. Buchholz needs to improve his fastball command to be a viable rotation option for the sox. If he can't repeat his delivery for all of his pitches, he'll be a mess, but it is an easy fix, but he needs the AAA time. Hopefully he can get it together, it looks like he has.

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

It isn't wasting innings. Buchholz needs to improve his fastball command to be a viable rotation option for the sox. If he can't repeat his delivery for all of his pitches' date=' he'll be a mess, but it is an easy fix, but he needs the AAA time. Hopefully he can get it together, it looks like he has.[/quote']

 

At this point, and looking at his stats, I think it's safe to say he is on top of his game. However, he is still in AAA and we could use him with the big league club. The problem I see is that unless there is an injury within the rotation...that is where he will stay. I have a hard time believing the Red Sox will move Masterson to the bullpen even though thats the right move.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Baseball slumps happen, the fact of the matter is that Ortiz was hitting like Ortiz after his early slump.

 

Want some Stats

 

Ortiz in May, .325 .409 .617 along with 8 homers and 22 runs batted in. Do you really think April is an indication of how Ortiz will perform for the rest of the season? I think his track record shows that we will see more of the may ortiz rather than the april Ortiz. I mean say you had a s***** hitter who was a career .200 hundred hitter than hit .300 in april, but then .200 in may. Do you think based on his april performance that he will be a .250 hitter for the rest of the season? I think not.

 

Cross-threaded and preserved for posterity in its entirety.

 

David Ortiz is 32 years old. He's listed at 230 pounds; we've all seen him, and we know that 300 pounds is closer to the truth. He had serious knee trouble affecting his swing in April: 300 pound guys have knee trouble, trust me. He overcame that issue in May, and he damaged a tendon in the process.

 

We're talking about an injured slow-moving slugger who's lost his swing. That's not good.

 

Let's look at Big Papi's ten closest comparable players through age 31 (source Baseball Reference), and see when they had their "dropoff seasons"

 

Carlos Delgado 35

Mo Vaughn 31

Lance Berkman N/A (currently 32)

Fred McGriff 33

Jason Giambi 33

Richie Sexson 32

Jeff Bagwell 37

Willie McCovey 33

Kent Hrbek 32

Paul Konerko 32

 

Excepting Lance Berkman, who at 32 hasn't yet declined, let's look at a cumulative distribution on those ages of decline:

 

 

31: 11%

32: 44%

33: 78%

34: 78%

35: 89%

36: 89%

37: 100%

 

David Ortiz is 32. He a slow-moving slugger. Slow-moving sluggers decline while young. Most of his most comparable players dropped off significantly at either age 32 or age 33. Even before sustaining a very serious injury, David Ortiz was only hitting .252/.354/.486 this season. If he comes back at all, he'll be coming back mid-season without the benefit of recent regular play.

 

But you're suggesting that he'll hit .325/.409/.617 when he returns. I'm suggesting he'll continue near .252/.354/.486 IF he returns. Which is more likely?

 

There's a chart on David Ortiz's PECOTA Card called the "blood spatter diagram." Let's check it out:

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/images/ortizda01_004.png

 

The batting line for May was an Equivalent Average (EqA) of about .350. His batting line for the season thus far is an EqA of .279. The red splotches in the chart above show how well Big Papi's several dozen most-comparable players did in their age 32 seasons. Right now, if Ortiz didn't play again in 2008, his performance would be at (246, .279), right near the upper-left corner of that quadrilateral formed by four guys who collapsed at age 32. If Big Papi does come back, though, 500 PA is probably all that he'll get. The range of performance of comparable players to Big Papi who got roughly 500 PA at age 32 is an EqA of .280 to .340, weighted to the low side. What you're suggesting, an EqA of .350 or so, is rare for perfectly healthy players similar to Big Papi at his age. The median for healthy players looks to be about .320. That's lower than the .350+ EqA Big Papi posted last year, but that's normal: players decline with age. But the median for injured players like Big Papi is even lower. Expecting him to come back and to hit as he did in May is unrealistic.

 

There's room for more optimism than I offer; there's almost no chance that he'll be as good as you predict, though.

 

Which brings me back to that Chris Carter thing.

 

Chris Carter is having a good year, but not such a great year that we should chalk it up to luck. He hasn't regressed; in fact, he's getting a little bit better at age 25. Right now he's roughly at a .270 EqA if one converted his AAA stats to their MLEs. That's good, not great: it's roughly a Jacoby Ellsbury or Dustin Pedroia value level. Although Chris Carter is a very different player on the field than either of those two, his overall value at the plate might be about the same. It's MUCH better than Brandon Moss, though, who's posting an EqA below .230.

 

Putting Chris Carter into the lineup as a DH--in particular, as a platoon DH vs. RHP--gives Boston its best chance to win games and gives Chris Carter and the FO a chance to maximize Carter's potential trade value. Let's not pine and wax nostalgic about Big Papi's past greatness--let's get Carter some time in The Show to develop his skills and to show what he can do.

[mosox]

This Manny being Manny business is getting ridiculous. He has to be held accountable for his actions regardless of how well he plays.

 

From the Projo Sox Blog:

 

BY SEAN McADAM

Journal Sports Writer

 

HOUSTON -- Maybe it's something in the water in Houston.

 

Days after Houston Astros pitcher Shawn Chacon tackled general manger Ed Wade in the home clubhouse at Minute Maid Park, the visitors clubhouse was the scene of another player-club employee altercation Saturday afternoon.

 

Manny Ramirez shoved Red Sox traveling secretary Jack McCormick to the ground in an argument over Ramirez' ticket allotment. Several onlookers moved quickly to separate the two.

 

Ramirez had asked McCormick for 16 tickets for Saturday night's Red Sox-Astros game, an unusually high number for day-of-game. In addition to handling all travel details for clubs, traveling secretaries also take player ticket requests for both home and away games.

 

When McCormick cautioned Ramirez that he might not be able to fulfill his request, Ramirez responded by shouting: "Just do your job!"

 

An argument ensued and Ramirez pushed McCormick, sending him to the ground.

 

Later, the two met behind closed doors and Ramirez apologized to McCormick, who accepted the gesture. No further disciplinary action is expected against Ramirez.

 

Asked on Sunday to comment on the altercation, Ramirez responded: "That's over. We're fine now."

 

"Sometimes things happen," said Terry Francona, "and when they do, we choose to handle them internally. I'm satisfied with how we handled this."

 

Added McCormick: "It was an unfortunate misunderstanding and it's over with as far as I'm concerned."

[Jayhawk Bill]

Mosox, welcome back!

[yeszir]

Maybe frustration over his unusually unproductive week? At least he apologized, but that's 2 altercations he's been involved in recently. He needs to chill out.

[Jayhawk Bill]

...that's 2 altercations he's been involved in recently. He needs to chill out.

 

I was thinking about that quarrel with Youk, too.

 

You know, most folks seemed to blame Youk for being too intense when that went down, and folks pointed out that even "Manny being Manny" had had enough.

 

Now things look a little different.

 

In related news, the Red Sox FO continue to consider whether or not to pick up Manny's $20 million option for next season...

[BoSox21]

yea, something seems up with manny this year

[MANNYHOF24]

Possibly the pressure of the contract year spilling over? I know usually things don't seem to phase him, but he is human.

[yeszir]

Maybe we're just hearing about it more, whereas in the past the front office tried to keep any incidents under wraps. I don't want to theorize about anything, but could it have something to do with his contract year and them trying to justify not re-signing him? just floating it out there.

[stooge]

as long as he starts hitting again he can do whatever he wants in my mind

[oldersoxfan]

This Manny being Manny business is getting ridiculous. He has to be held accountable for his actions regardless of how well he plays.

 

From the Projo Sox Blog:

 

BY SEAN McADAM

Journal Sports Writer

 

HOUSTON -- Maybe it's something in the water in Houston.

 

Days after Houston Astros pitcher Shawn Chacon tackled general manger Ed Wade in the home clubhouse at Minute Maid Park, the visitors clubhouse was the scene of another player-club employee altercation Saturday afternoon.

 

Manny Ramirez shoved Red Sox traveling secretary Jack McCormick to the ground in an argument over Ramirez' ticket allotment. Several onlookers moved quickly to separate the two.

 

Ramirez had asked McCormick for 16 tickets for Saturday night's Red Sox-Astros game, an unusually high number for day-of-game. In addition to handling all travel details for clubs, traveling secretaries also take player ticket requests for both home and away games.

 

When McCormick cautioned Ramirez that he might not be able to fulfill his request, Ramirez responded by shouting: "Just do your job!"

 

An argument ensued and Ramirez pushed McCormick, sending him to the ground.

 

Later, the two met behind closed doors and Ramirez apologized to McCormick, who accepted the gesture. No further disciplinary action is expected against Ramirez.

 

Asked on Sunday to comment on the altercation, Ramirez responded: "That's over. We're fine now."

 

"Sometimes things happen," said Terry Francona, "and when they do, we choose to handle them internally. I'm satisfied with how we handled this."

 

Added McCormick: "It was an unfortunate misunderstanding and it's over with as far as I'm concerned."

 

 

 

not a big deal

[yeszir]

not a big deal

 

Let's hope not.

 

Welcome to Talksox!

[rician blast]

Maybe we're just hearing about it more' date=' whereas in the past the front office tried to keep any incidents under wraps. I don't want to theorize about anything, but could it have something to do with his contract year and them trying to justify not re-signing him? just floating it out there.[/quote']

 

Sox FOs (not specifically this regime) have been accused of this sort of thing before. Let's look at it without considering the incidents.

 

He's currently batting .289, 16 HRs, 52 RBIs with a .378 OBP. Is that worth $20m in today's market?

 

He's played in 77 of the Sox 81 games, that's pretty good (although some games have been at DH). But the past two years he played in 133 and 130, respectively. Is my man wearing down? And if they don't resign him, how do they fill the void?

[Jayhawk Bill]

He's currently batting .289' date=' 16 HRs, 52 RBIs with a .378 OBP. Is that worth $20m in today's market?[/quote']

 

I can help with this part of the question.

 

The worth of a player on the 2007 Free Agent Market was

 

$1,200,000*(Projected WARP^1.5) + $380,000

 

Manny's projected WARP for 2009 entering the 2008 season was 3.1, suggesting a worth well short of $20,000,000. Manny is on track for a 5.2 to 5.8 WARP this year, though. (5.2 is double his current WARP1; 5.8 is his current WARP3; IMHO, WARP3 is better suited to this at the All Star Break.)

 

If Manny were projected to be worth 5.8 WARP in 2009, he'd be worth $17,141,899.65 by the above formula. A couple of words of caution:

 

1) $17,141,899.65

 

2) A 36-year-old player worth 5.8 wins in 2008 would be expected to be worth fewer wins in 2009.

 

Still, $17,141,899.65 is at least in the right range. It'll be a different market, inflation is becoming significant, and there are intangible reasons for wanting Manny in Boston. Twenty million isn't automatic, but it's not out of the question.

[jacksonianmarch]

Scumbag

[Jayhawk Bill]

Scumbag

 

In related news, Sidney Ponson, who punched a judge in Aruba, who had three DUI arrests in one year, and who was released by the Texas Rangers despite a 4-1 record in 9 starts and a 3.88 ERA for "disrespectful and adverse reactions to situations unbecoming of teammates" has been signed by the New York Yankees.

 

"He had problems with the manager in Texas. [Ponson] was never a problem when he was here with us."

 

The official voice of the New York Yankees considers multiple DUIs, brutality against unarmed individuals, and considerable further borderline behavior OK for the Yankees, blaming problems on other teams' managers.

 

I blame the alleged incident in Houston on Cecil Cooper.

[yeszir]

In related news, Sidney Ponson, who punched a judge in Aruba, who had three DUI arrests in one year, and who was released by the Texas Rangers despite a 4-1 record in 9 starts and a 3.88 ERA for "disrespectful and adverse reactions to situations unbecoming of teammates" has been signed by the New York Yankees.

 

 

 

The official voice of the New York Yankees considers multiple DUIs, brutality against unarmed individuals, and considerable further borderline behavior OK for the Yankees, blaming problems on other teams' managers.

 

I blame the alleged incident in Houston on Cecil Cooper.

I hereby award you the award for best retort

[TheKilo]

Scumbag

 

Seriously?

 

A fan of the team who still employs Jason f***ing Giambi shouldn't be throwing stones.

[TheKilo]

It isn't wasting innings. Buchholz needs to improve his fastball command to be a viable rotation option for the sox. If he can't repeat his delivery for all of his pitches' date=' he'll be a mess, but it is an easy fix, but he needs the AAA time. Hopefully he can get it together, it looks like he has.[/quote']

 

Buchholz's lack of command on his fastball doesn't bode well for a bullpen stint, either. We already have enough wild RHH in our pen.

[soxfan17881]

The yoga, calm, cool, normal Manny was just too much to hope for all year.

[a700hitter]

As long as he is not asking for a trade, he can bitch slap as many traveling secretaries as he wants. The guy probably needed a good slap.

[jacksonianmarch]

Seriously?

 

A fan of the team who still employs Jason f***ing Giambi shouldn't be throwing stones.

 

he isnt throwing old men to the ground. But wait, you guys defended Pedro, so I shouldnt leap to conclusions. Only this time, the old man wasnt coming after Manny.

[yeszir]

Only this time' date=' the old man wasnt coming after Manny.[/quote']

 

Well there ya go, you just rationalized Pedro's actions for me. I didn't even have to say it.

 

In pictures, because I'm bored:

http://cache.boston.com/bonzai-fba/Globe_Photo/2003/10/13/1066028821_2046

"Im gonna hit you in the head"

http://gothamist.com/images/2003_10_zimmer.jpg

http://cache.boston.com/bonzai-fba/Globe_Photo/2004/11/17/1100706901_5904.jpg

http://thephoenix.com/SoxBlog/content/binary/Pedro_Zimmer3.jpg

[Jayhawk Bill]

If Bill Lee had only done that, we coulda won in 1978.

[rician blast]

he isnt throwing old men to the ground.

 

Despite the fact that Zimmer admitted fault and later didn't blame Pedro for chucking him down since it was the Gerbil who went after Petey with a right hand ready to fly, some Yankees fans still see it very differently.

 

If you look at pic 2, you'll see Pedro was saying "come here ya big lug" and just wanted to give him a kiss on the forehead, but things spiraled outta control.

[jacksonianmarch]

he couldnt just back away from the old man with metal hips and who wobbles like a weeble?

[ORS]

Weebles don't fall down, the Gerbil did. Bad description.