Manny Ramirez's future in Boston....

[SCM33]

Do you think the option is picked up, or is this his last go-around with Boston?

 

I think if he puts up .290 35 100 the option may be picked up considering the market, potential FA replacements, and lack of minor league depth at the LF position.....

 

Another .296/20/88 at his salary though.......he could become expendable.

 

Thoughts?

[HeadOfSoxNation]

Do you think the option is picked up, or is this his last go-around with Boston?

 

I think if he puts up .290 35 100 the option may be picked up considering the market, potential FA replacements, and lack of minor league depth at the LF position.....

 

Another .296/20/88 at his salary though.......he could become expendable.

 

Thoughts?

 

Yea no way they pick up a $20 million option if he puts together another year like last year, let alone two $20 million options like Manny's suggesting.

 

Who knows, maybe "The Secret" has brought Manny back to the Manny of 04 and those two options will be a no-brainer for the Sox? I certainly hope so...but you never know with this character.

 

One thing that's for certain though...no way the Sox sign him for another four years AFTER the two option years. I think Manny's gameplan is a little off base.

 

Prove me wrong, ManRam.

[Cocos Disciples]

They will pick up both his options IMO.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Do you think the option is picked up, or is this his last go-around with Boston?

 

I think if he puts up .290 35 100 the option may be picked up considering the market, potential FA replacements, and lack of minor league depth at the LF position.....

 

Another .296/20/88 at his salary though.......he could become expendable.

 

Thoughts?

 

I expect that Manny will have a contract year this season, and that, barring injury, he'll be back with Boston in 2009. Either .300/.400/.500 or .270/.400/.500 in 150 games seems reasonable, although not guaranteed. PECOTA has .273/.376/.497 ...not too far off, and PECOTA doesn't have "contract year" as an input.

 

Expecting that two years in a row...no, sorry, that's below a 50% chance, IMO. Manny isn't a good defender, and he's got to hit very well to be worth $20 million a year. There are signs this spring that his swing is a little slower despite his excellent off-season work...at some point his OBP is going to decline.

[jacksonianmarch]

I remember hearing somewhere that these 2 options are bound, is that true? IE, the sox need to exercise both or none at all. Or was EEI pulling my leg.

[Cocos Disciples]

I haven't heard that.

 

EDIT: Just checked Cot's Contracts, there was no mention of that.

[Sox Fan on Cape]

I remember hearing somewhere that these 2 options are bound' date=' is that true? IE, the sox need to exercise both or none at all. Or was EEI pulling my leg.[/quote']

 

They are not linked.

[jacksonianmarch]

not the first time EEI was wrong

[soxfan17881]

I'm assuming that the decisions about the option/s will depend on: A. How bright Manny shines (or not) this year, and B. Who might be out there that the Sox could drop dough on to fill the clean-up spot.

 

...so, who's due to be a free agent after '08? Quite a few, actually.

 

Let's start strictly with outfielders. (Taken from Cot's) Player's with asterisks have contracts that include a 2009 option.

 

Bobby Abreu NYY

Moises Alou NYM

Garret Anderson * LAA

Rocco Baldelli * TB

Willie Bloomquist SEA

Emil Brown OAK

Pat Burrell PHI

Endy Chavez NYM

Carl Crawford * TB

Adam Dunn CIN

Jim Edmonds SD

Juan Encarnacion STL

Cliff Floyd TB

Brian Giles * SD

Ken Griffey Jr. * CIN

Vladimir Guerrero * LAA

Raul Ibanez SEA

Jacque Jones DET

Mark Kotsay ATL

Rob Mackowiak WAS

Kevin Mench TEX

Jason Michaels * CLE

Craig Monroe MIN

Jay Payton BAL

Scott Podsednik COL

Juan Rivera LAA

Rondell White MIN

 

Of course, the intangible feature of Manny is the fans who love to watchin him, no matter how goofy he is and no matter whether he's hitting 20 jacks or 50.

[Cocos Disciples]

Wouldn't mind me some Adam Dunn...

[SCM33]

I'm assuming that the decisions about the option/s will depend on: A. How bright Manny shines (or not) this year' date=' and [b'] B[/b]. Who might be out there that the Sox could drop dough on to fill the clean-up spot.

 

...so, who's due to be a free agent after '08? Quite a few, actually.

 

Let's start strictly with outfielders. (Taken from Cot's) Player's with asterisks have contracts that include a 2009 option.

 

Bobby Abreu NYY

Moises Alou NYM

Garret Anderson * LAA

Rocco Baldelli * TB

Willie Bloomquist SEA

Emil Brown OAK

Pat Burrell PHI

Endy Chavez NYM

Carl Crawford * TB

Adam Dunn CIN

Jim Edmonds SD

Juan Encarnacion STL

Cliff Floyd TB

Brian Giles * SD

Ken Griffey Jr. * CIN

Vladimir Guerrero * LAA

Raul Ibanez SEA

Jacque Jones DET

Mark Kotsay ATL

Rob Mackowiak WAS

Kevin Mench TEX

Jason Michaels * CLE

Craig Monroe MIN

Jay Payton BAL

Scott Podsednik COL

Juan Rivera LAA

Rondell White MIN

 

Of course, the intangible feature of Manny is the fans who love to watchin him, no matter how goofy he is and no matter whether he's hitting 20 jacks or 50.

 

There arent very many names on that list I like.

 

Baldelli is always hurt, but would be a great pickup if he could stay healthy and return to pre-injury form....that would still be a downgrade from Manny, even circa 2007.

 

Burell is a proven slugger, that year he had in 2003 scares the crap out of me though. Not sure he could handle the Boston spotlight.

 

Crawford is staying with the Rays. Hes the guy I would want most. One of the best athletes in professional sports. He may eventually develop 30 HR power. Hes only 25 and getting better, plus he bangs them in (avg about 80 RBI on the Rays over the last 3) and hes lightning fast with great OB skills. Not to mention hes an elite OF capable of filling in CF.

 

Abreu, Alou, Anderson, Edmonds, Floyd, Giles, Griffey, Ibanez, and White are all too old to spend any money on them. All are as old, or older than Manny.

 

Bloomquist, Brown, Chavez, Jones, Kotsay, Mackowiak, Mench, Michaels, Monroe, Payton, Posednick, and Rivera are all 4th and 5th Outfielders (some even AAA) for a big market club. They are not good enough to start everyday in LF for Boston.

 

Dunn is a homerun, OB% monster....but hes not a very good OF (neither is Manny, but at least Manny knows the monster), and I dont think I would want him in our lineup. Listen, hes a fantasy monster.....but Papi is a lefty, Dunn is a lefty, Drew is a lefty, and Ellsbury is a lefty....that means that potentially 4 of the first 5 guys will be hitting lefthanded. I think I would rather have a RHH hitting in the cleanup spot

 

Guerrero is the only guy who you can really compare power numbers with all the way across the board, but he is a RF, and a pretty good RF (minus the dumb ass throws) and would probably balk at the idea of moving to LF, especially if the Yankees call him up and tell him RF is his once Abreu is all done.

[BSN07]

Crawford, Dunn and Vlad are the only ones I'd take. Vlad could play RF for the Sox and move Drew to LF. But I would have to imagine that the Angels will hold onto him. As well as the Rays withy Crawford. Dunn could go anywhere.

 

Id take Crawford over the lot, but I see the point with having so many LH bats in the lineup.

 

 

I think if Manny puts together a .290 28+HR and 100+ RBI he will get the extensions.

[SCM33]

Crawford, Dunn and Vlad are the only ones I'd take. Vlad could play RF for the Sox and move Drew to LF. But I would have to imagine that the Angels will hold onto him. As well as the Rays withy Crawford. Dunn could go anywhere.

 

Id take Crawford over the lot, but I see the point with having so many LH bats in the lineup.

 

 

I think if Manny puts together a .290 28+HR and 100+ RBI he will get the extensions.

 

 

I agree, but with Crawfords LH bat.....the bats will be more spread out in the lineup since he hits at the top. With Dunn, our 3,4,5 hitters could possibly all be LH and every contender will look for a quality LH specialist to neutralize the heart of our order, which could lead to a demise in the playoffs.

[RobZombie]

The issue with any contract isn't mostly the amount of money they have to give up, its the years the Sox would have to commit.

 

If the Sox wanted to sign Dunn, or Crawford we are talking about the Sox having to commit to the player for multiple years, maybe even 7 or 8. Plus they'd have to give up a pick. If they pick up Manny's option, they only have to commit to him for one year and don't have to give up a pick. The only way you go and get someone else, is if they are going to be a significant upgrade over Ramirez.

[SCM33]

The issue with any contract isn't mostly the amount of money they have to give up' date=' its the years the Sox would have to commit.[/quote']

 

LOL, I dont know why, but that kind of made me chuckle.

 

If we were Kansas City, you are absolutely right. Listen, neither really turn the Sox away. The reason we didnt resign Damon was not because of money, or years (as was stated by both parties). The reason the Sox would not pick up an option is because of his age and price vs. production.

 

When we got Coco to replace Damon, Theo absolutely thought he was getting the better player in the long run. He was paying less which was somewhat significant. The major significance was that he was a lot younger.

 

Money and years matter nothing to the Redsox, they will simply throw the money out there to the player who can best provide significant production to their lineup. If Manny hits 45 HR and knocks in 140 you think years and dollars would keep him out of Boston? Had that been the case he wouldnt have been signed in the first place (to the second biggest contract in baseball history at the time) Age is the biggest determining factor, because if there is someone who can provide what Manny can, and the player is younger......then course he will be a lot cheaper (almost every player in baseball is cheaper than Manny). If 20M for another 2 years brings us .300-45-120, or even .290-35-100, then the Sox should do it. If he puts together another season like he did, then any number of guys on soxfan17881's potential FA list could possibly put up those numbers in this lineup, in this park.

[SCM33]

 

I think if he puts up .290 35 100 the option may be picked up

 

I think I may have low balled him. I dont remember him coming out of the gate like this.....maybe one other time, If I were to guess, Id say it was his first year in Boston.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Hmmm...let's check Manny's April splits.

 

[table]Year | BA | OBP | SLG

Career | 0.313 | 0.398 | 0.579

2001 | 0.408 | 0.482 | 0.735

2002 | 0.346 | 0.495 | 0.679

2003 | 0.343 | 0.424 | 0.539

2004 | 0.388 | 0.448 | 0.647

2005 | 0.274 | 0.386 | 0.607

2006 | 0.276 | 0.417 | 0.448

2007 | 0.202 | 0.314 | 0.315

2008 (to date) | 0.338 | 0.397 | 0.676[/table]

 

Manny's April doesn't especially stand out on a career basis, or even when contrasted to his 2001-2004 April stats. It does stand out relative to his 2005-2007 April stats. One possible explanation is that he got soft and that his willingness to work out in the offseason was exaggerated by the media in 2005-2007, but that he's dedicated himself again in 2008 as he works to earn his first $20 million option year in 2009.