Johan Santana

[AlexanderTheGreat13]

I'd be stunned if you get Haren for Coco and a bag of balls. Bean loves a good shake down. I remember when the Yankees asked about Kotsay he wanted Hughes in return.

[jacksonianmarch]

I am surprised Betemit hasnt come up in conversation. They are looking for a young, powerful, cheap corner IFer and Betemit fits the bill.

[das11209]

I am surprised Betemit hasnt come up in conversation. They are looking for a young' date=' powerful, cheap corner IFer and Betemit fits the bill.[/quote']

 

May be the reason why they are signing Loretta - so Betemit is available for a trade.

 

I love to see Yankee fans freak out that signing Loretta may be a prelude of trading Cano. Personally I will be shocked if the Yankees trade Cano for Santana.

[ORS]

I'd be stunned if you get Haren for Coco and a bag of balls. Bean loves a good shake down. I remember when the Yankees asked about Kotsay he wanted Hughes in return.

I don't see where that has been proposed. By my reading, BSN07 is saying Coco + those names, which is too much for Haren, IMO. Now, if you are calling Lester, Masterson, and Bowden a bag of balls, that's another story, and one I think many will take issue with, myself included.

[Gom]

Homosayswhat? With the benefit of 20/20 hindsight, it's pretty easy to say he got fleeced there.

 

Sheff played 133 games. Damon/Matsui/Giambi DH'd 137 games.

[table]Who|OPS|HR

Supersuck Trio|.729|18

Sheff|.840|25[/table]

 

In return they got a kid who needed TJ surgery and a throw in relief pitcher. Solid. Solid waste, that is.

Unquestionably. We should have gotten something worthwhile, but remember, it was addition by subtraction. So we got a bar of soap. Remember, it's not like we gave up much to get him, he was a free agent.

[Gom]

I am surprised Betemit hasnt come up in conversation. They are looking for a young' date=' powerful, cheap corner IFer and Betemit fits the bill.[/quote']

He's not good. Therein lies the problem. He sucks.

[TheKilo]

Easy now' date=' I think some crack slipped into the pipe at the hash bar. I like Ellsbury, but he won't hit for the kind of power Sizemore or Beltran do. Those are the types of guys you draw a line on when talking about CFs. I'll take the best pitcher in baseball, even if it's only for 3-4 out of 6 years, for a guy who's ceiling is just below the elite (top 5) CFs in the game. Especially when there is a capable guy on the payroll to bridge the gap to the guys in the lower minors (Kalish and Place) whose tools are closer to those you mentioned.[/quote']

 

Exactly.

 

Look, I like Ellsbury. I think he can be a very good MLB player. Is he a superstar, can't miss type prospect? No, he isn't. Coming off the WS, his value is sky high and I still think people here are overvaluing his worth to the Red Sox, especially in comparison to Crisp.

 

Look at it this way. The upgrade from Santana to Lester, IMO, is greater than the upgrade from Crisp to Ellsbury.

[das11209]

Paps likes the trade for Santana.

 

I believe all players should keep their mouth shut. I remember Kevin Millar got burnt after saying in ESPN that he prefered A-Rod to Nomar when the trade for A-Rod to Boston appeared imminant. And Paps is way more important in the clubhouse than Millar ever was.

 

 

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2007/11/papelbon_likes.html

[jacksonianmarch]

In terms of the two "other guys" the sox are talking about, here is a prospectus SR on both of them...

 

“Masterson’s sinker is not only the best in the system, it’s arguably the best in all of the minor leagues. The pitch comes out of his hand at 88-92 mph, touches 94, and features tremendous downward break. Making the pitch even more effective is his ability to locate it in any four quadrants of the zone. He has an intimidating presence on the mound, and his drop-and-drive style gives him some deception.

Masterson’s three-quarters delivery is a bit of a concern, as his causes him to often get around on his slider, taking away any depth from the pitch. He made some progress this year with a circle grip on his changeup, but it remains a below-average pitch. Because of these concerns with his arsenal, some project him to be a reliever down the road.

Perfect World Projection: Pitchers like Chien-Ming Wang, Fausto Carmona and Derek Lowe have proven that sinkerballers can have great success in starting roles. While Masterson is in that mold, he’s a notch below them.”

 

“Lowrie is an on-base machine. His approach is highly advanced, as he works the count well, and recognizes which pitches he can drive into the gap. His makeup is off the charts--he’s a baseball grinder who plays and practices with an infectious all-out style. Defensively, he’s fundamentally sound and features a solid, accurate arm.

Scouts’ opinions of Lowrie vary wildly, with some seeing him as an everyday big league shortstop, and others seeing him as no more than a very good utility player. There is little doubt that with Lowrie’s average speed and slow first step that his range is a little short to play on the left side of an infield in the big leagues.

Perfect World Projection: A starting shortstop, though second base is more likely.”

 

And Homer Gammons called these guys studs? Studs are players who project to be studly in the majors. These are guys like Hughes, Chamberlain, Buchholz, etc. Not a reliever and a "jury is still out" middle infielder.

[jacksonianmarch]

He's not good. Therein lies the problem. He sucks.

 

how do you know? He has never played a full season. He hits for power, has a good eye and K's a ton. Thats all we know right now.

[das11209]

Exactly.

 

Look, I like Ellsbury. I think he can be a very good MLB player. Is he a superstar, can't miss type prospect? No, he isn't. Coming off the WS, his value is sky high and I still think people here are overvaluing his worth to the Red Sox, especially in comparison to Crisp.

 

Look at it this way. The upgrade from Santana to Lester, IMO, is greater than the upgrade from Crisp to Ellsbury.

 

I am OK with trading Ellsbury - but I can't imagine in my wildest dream that we will go a whole season with the serial monkey. Your point that Ellsbury's value is the highest now is very good. On the otherhand - Andruw Jones's value is as low as it can ever be as well as his agent's. If we do deal Jacoby - I don't mind Andruw Jones in Boston if we get a really good deal.

[jacksonianmarch]

Jones' agent is Boras. No 50 cents on the dollar deals for this guy. Which is a problem when his client is coming off his worst season.

[Mr Crunchy]

Haren may actually cost more since he is cost controlled through 2010. The A's are looking to rebuild' date=' but they have the time to wait on dealing Blanton and Haren.[/quote']

 

i love joe blanton

he gets the ball and doesnt f*** around

his games end in 2 hours while the rest of the league takes 4

[AlexanderTheGreat13]

I don't see where that has been proposed. By my reading' date=' BSN07 is saying Coco + those names, which is too much for Haren, IMO. Now, if you are calling Lester, Masterson, and Bowden a bag of balls, that's another story, and one I think many will take issue with, myself included.[/quote']

 

Well lets break the trade down. Coco Crisp at 10 million for the next 2 years has no value IMO. Lester is a solid prospect at this point and still has potential. I dont know much about Masterson so I cant speak on him but from what I heard hes a future reliever. Bowden I do know was highly thought of and did not proform to expectations this year. I am suprised however how the Red Sox are holding on to Ellsbury. For a pitcher like Santana he shouldnt be a deal breaker IMO.

[das11209]

Jones' agent is Boras. No 50 cents on the dollar deals for this guy. Which is a problem when his client is coming off his worst season.

 

Beacuse Bor-ass had so much issues this off-season ( apart from A-Rod Kenny Rogers dumped him) - he may be OK with a try and buy deal for Jones. I do believe Jones is better than his last season numbers and we can buy him low.

 

Only reason I will even consider that is if we trade Ellsbury - and hunter has already signed.

Edit - I will love to see a JB analysis of if it is worth signing Jones to a reasonable deal or he is absolutely done.

[das11209]

In todays Fannation - looks like Beddard and Haren is available now. So if the twins are holding out - that may not be a bad thing for Sox as the price for Santana may go down.

 

http://www.fannation.com/truth_and_rumors/mlb

[Mr Crunchy]

did jones get over .230 this year?

whats boras asking?

25m for 8 years??

 

jones had better days and being a pro since 19 has probably taken a step or 2 away

[cam780]

Can we all agree that we have no idea what's going on?

 

In one corner you have the reporters who are saying that the Red Sox are ahead then there's some that don't cite the deal but say the Yanks will get him. Some that say that the Sox aren't willing to part with Ellsbury or Buchholz and some that say that they'd part with either. Some that say that the Yankees won't include Hughes or Cano some that say that the Yanks are willing to add them. This isn't a typical for these types of talks - most of the time the majority of reports you get on any particular deal coincide with some minor pieces being off - ie what we have with Charley Walters (Waters?) and Buster Olney.

 

For what its worth the two sources that have recently stated that they believe the Yanks will get him I don't necessarily trust. John Heyman gives me an impression more as a columnist than a reporter - and no I don't have anything to back it its just my impression - and although I love and respect Peter Gammons its hard to put weight in an article that says that if the Sox deal Santana that they then would be forced to redo Becketts deal. Baseball is a different entity than the NFL where that may be the case but I don't remember the last time a big league club renegotiated a contract for a second time in three years with three years remaining. It just doesn't happen. . Like I said before, Santana's deal will factor into negotiations regardless of where he plays.

 

The one thing that people aren't mentioning is the depth of the Sox system. If you hold onto all of your prospects - you're not going to have anywhere to play them all. This is a list of the Sox prospects that have a legit chance of making it with the major league club within the next 5 years. I've considered Drew locked because his contract isn't easily moveable. Lugo's would be if the Sox eat a portion.

 

IF - Pedroia and Youkilis locked at 2nd and 1st

Will Middlebrooks, Jed Lowrie, Lars Anderson, Oscar Tejeda, Ryan Dent

OF - Ellsbury, Drew locked at center and right

Kade Koewen, Josh Reddick, Jason Place, Che Hsuan Lin, Ryan Kalish

SP - Beckett, Dice-K, Buchholz, Lester

Bowden, Masterson, Hagadone, Kris Johnson

 

Thats fourteen prospects that could make an impact over the next 5 years for 3 open spots. Now prospects are prospects for a reason they may fizzle out like a Daniel Bard but even if you consider Ellsbury a lock as a future all star sacrificing that one lock for the best pitcher in baseball is a smart move because out of the ten other position guys the chances that one or two of them develop into a player like Ellsbury (or even better) would be good.

[TheKilo]

In todays Fannation - looks like Beddard and Haren is available now. So if the twins are holding out - that may not be a bad thing for Sox as the price for Santana may go down.

 

http://www.fannation.com/truth_and_rumors/mlb

 

Bedard will cost just as much as Santana in terms of prospects.

 

Andruw Jones is awful. No thanks.

[cam780]

In terms of the two "other guys" the sox are talking about, here is a prospectus SR on both of them...

 

 

 

 

 

And Homer Gammons called these guys studs? Studs are players who project to be studly in the majors. These are guys like Hughes, Chamberlain, Buchholz, etc. Not a reliever and a "jury is still out" middle infielder.

 

I've already said that I find it hard to give credit to what Gammons says but here are the scouting reports on Tabata and Kennedy:

 

2. Ian Kennedy, RHP

DOB: 12/19/84

Height/Weight: 6-0/190

Bats/Throws: R/R

Drafted: 1st round, 2006, University of Southern California

2007 Stats: 1.29 ERA at High-A (63-39-22-72); 2.59 at Double-A (48.2-27-17-57); 2.08 ERA at Triple-A (34.2-25-11-34); 1.89 ERA at MLB (19-13-9-15)

 

Year In Review: Followed the Joba development plan by opening the year in the Florida State League, dominating at every level, and finishing the season in pinstripes.

The Good: Kennedy’s best pitch is a plus-plus changeup that features arm-side deception and late, heavy drop. It worked as an out pitch at every level, including the majors. He sets it up with a fastball that has average velocity at 88-91 mph, but grades up a level because of Kennedy’s ability to locate it at will. His curveball is average and effective when he mixes it in.

The Bad: The only real knock against Kennedy is his ceiling. He doesn’t have front-end starter's stuff, and projects as no more than a third starter, but the good news is that he’s already there. He’s a bit on the smallish side, and his fastball can get a bit straight at times.

Fun Fact: In the third inning of minor league games, Kennedy allowed just one run in 25 frames.

Perfect World Projection: Kennedy is what he is, but he’s a solid big league starter right now, giving the Yankees a return on their draft investment in barely more than a year.

Timetable: Kennedy has a shot at earning a rotation job in spring training, but any number of potential deals and/or free agent signings could force him to return to Triple-A to begin 2008.

 

and Tabata:

 

4. Jose Tabata, OF

DOB: 8/12/88

Height/Weight: 5-11/160

Bats/Throws: R/R

Acquired: NDFA, 2005, Venezuela

2007 Stats: .307/.371/.392 at High-A (103 G)

 

Year In Review: The top-notch hitting prospect more than held his own at High-A as an 18-year-old before his season ended prematurely due to hamate bone surgery.

The Good: Tabata is a gifted hitter with outstanding bat speed and hand-eye coordination, showing the ability to hit any pitch, anywhere, from both lefties and righties. He’s an average runner and a good right fielder with the arm strength for the position. He plays under control and with a confidence far beyond his years.

The Bad: While Tabata’s hand problems were a year-long issue and mitigating factor, scouts are beginning to question his power ceiling. He’s not especially big, and his swing is on a level plane-–so while the ball flies off his bat, it’s not overly loaded with loft or backspin. If he doesn’t develop power, he doesn’t really match the profile normally associated with the position. He could also use a more patient approach.

Fun Fact: When playing right field, Tabata hit .335, but when playing designated hitter only, Tabata hit just .169 in 71 at-bats.

Perfect World Projection: Most are convinced that Tabata will hit .300+ in the majors. It’s the development of his secondary skills that will define whether or not he ends up as an impact player.

Timetable: Tabata is expected to be healthy for spring training, and once again, he’ll be extremely young for his level, playing in Double-A as a nineteen year old.

 

Masterson is a notch below great - would you say that would qualify as a big league starter ie Kennedy? And Tabata has below average power that needs to define his secondary skills to be an impact player? Much like a starting shortstop with great plate discipline?

 

Hmmm.

 

From the reports that you quote, Lowrie may project better than Tabata. Masterson and Kennedy look like the same player then the Yanks throw in Cabrera and the Sox give Lester and Crisp. Your argument has actually convinced me that I was wrong. These offers aren't comparable. The Sox have the better deal on the table.

[cam780]

Bedard will cost just as much as Santana in terms of prospects.

 

Andruw Jones is awful. No thanks.

 

I'd take Jones for 3 years at 15 because he could rebound and be another 30 homer guy. I'd love to see Beddard but I agree he will cost what Santana costs and I don't think he gets dealt within the division.

 

The last thing the Orioles want is for their ace to beat them 3 or 4 times a year and the last thing the Sox want to see is their top prospects blossom in Camden Yards

[Gom]

Exactly.

 

Look, I like Ellsbury. I think he can be a very good MLB player. Is he a superstar, can't miss type prospect? No, he isn't. Coming off the WS, his value is sky high and I still think people here are overvaluing his worth to the Red Sox, especially in comparison to Crisp.

 

Look at it this way. The upgrade from Santana to Lester, IMO, is greater than the upgrade from Crisp to Ellsbury.

Welcome to the world of Yankee fans who overvalue everyone on their team, and undervalue everyone else on every other team.

 

I would trade anyone for Santana. Chamberlain included. Even Jeter, lol. Hell, I'd trade Arod for the guy, talent-wise.

[ORS]

Well lets break the trade down. Coco Crisp at 10 million for the next 2 years has no value IMO. Lester is a solid prospect at this point and still has potential. I dont know much about Masterson so I cant speak on him but from what I heard hes a future reliever. Bowden I do know was highly thought of and did not proform to expectations this year. I am suprised however how the Red Sox are holding on to Ellsbury. For a pitcher like Santana he shouldnt be a deal breaker IMO.

Well, then you join legion with a multitude of others who totally undervalue Crisp by looking at offense alone. He was 6 wins above replacement as a CF this year despite putting up average offensive numbers. Where's that rank?

 

Granderson - 10.4

Ichiro - 8.7

Beltran - 8.4

Rowand - 7.8

Sizemore - 6.3

Pence - 6.2 (in 95 games, holy frijoles!)

 

Those are who beat him in total value. Not a long list. You can't tell me you wouldn't want those close to him (Sizemore, BJ Upton, Torii Hunter) at only $5M per year.

 

I suppose that "reliever" tag will stick to Masterson until he retires as a SP, and even then Jacko would still refer to him as such. Despite that opinion, nothing he's done in his performance or progression suggests he can't workout as a starter. Hagadone has a similar comment about him in his SR due him relieving in college. Dollars to donuts, he doesn't shed the tag all the way up the ladder. These types of comments never seem to die, no matter what a player is doing on the field. He's a starter until he isn't. I know that's a Berra-esque comment, but sometimes it is what it is.

[TheKilo]

I'd take Jones for 3 years at 15 because he could rebound and be another 30 homer guy. I'd love to see Beddard but I agree he will cost what Santana costs and I don't think he gets dealt within the division.

 

The last thing the Orioles want is for their ace to beat them 3 or 4 times a year and the last thing the Sox want to see is their top prospects blossom in Camden Yards

 

Tell me why we want someone who strikes out more often than Wily Mo Pena.

[das11209]

Tell me why we want someone who strikes out more often than Wily Mo Pena.

 

I guess I am going to debate with you like you generally do - that is what alternative you have?

 

If Ellsbury is traded - who you want in the center field? Coco or Jones or someone else?

[das11209]

Bedard will cost just as much as Santana in terms of prospects.

 

Andruw Jones is awful. No thanks.

 

Haren could be interesting - because he is cost controlled.

 

Quality wise I will take Santana over those two. I am not sure who has the best return on investment in terms of prospect cost and salary.

[das11209]

Very interesting debate on the Yankee site - would they trade Kennedy and Hughes for Santana or watch Santana go to the Red Sox by not budging to Minny trade demands?

 

Believe it or not - second option is winning almost by 3 to 1 now. After all - George Steinberner does not have that much influence on the Yankee fans. If it is upto George - he will give Minny the whole farm and more for Santana.

[TheKilo]

I guess I am going to debate with you like you generally do - that is what alternative you have?

 

If Ellsbury is traded - who you want in the center field? Coco or Jones or someone else?

 

Coco Crisp.

 

 

Haren could be interesting - because he is cost controlled.

 

Quality wise I will take Santana over those two. I am not sure who has the best return on investment in terms of prospect cost and salary.

 

Like I said in the other threads, since Haren is cost controlled (read - it won't cost $20 million+ to extend him), more teams are going to be in on the bidding. Therefore, the prospects we will have to give up may be just as good as the ones we'd give up for Santana for a lesser pitcher.

[AlexanderTheGreat13]

Well, then you join legion with a multitude of others who totally undervalue Crisp by looking at offense alone. He was 6 wins above replacement as a CF this year despite putting up average offensive numbers. Where's that rank?

 

Granderson - 10.4

Ichiro - 8.7

Beltran - 8.4

Rowand - 7.8

Sizemore - 6.3

Pence - 6.2 (in 95 games, holy frijoles!)

 

Those are who beat him in total value. Not a long list. You can't tell me you wouldn't want those close to him (Sizemore, BJ Upton, Torii Hunter) at only $5M per year.

 

I suppose that "reliever" tag will stick to Masterson until he retires as a SP, and even then Jacko would still refer to him as such. Despite that opinion, nothing he's done in his performance or progression suggests he can't workout as a starter. Hagadone has a similar comment about him in his SR due him relieving in college. Dollars to donuts, he doesn't shed the tag all the way up the ladder. These types of comments never seem to die, no matter what a player is doing on the field. He's a starter until he isn't. I know that's a Berra-esque comment, but sometimes it is what it is.

Is Crisp really worth 10 mill over the next 2 years though? Your forgetting those players can actually hit. Comeon I mean who would you rather have Ellsbury or Crisp? I think the Red Sox are anwsering that question when they try to pawn Crisp off on the Twins instead of Ellsbury.

[das11209]

Coco Crisp.

 

 

 

 

I guess I beg to disagree based on how horrible he has been in terms of offense. Put Crisp in place of Ellsbury and we do not win the Cleveland series in the post season.

Crisp is nothing but an automatic out. Heck - I will take Lugo's bat over Coco.