Official 07 offseason thread

[jacksonianmarch]

and that "other prospect" would have to be named Buchholz. It isnt that I think Salty is worth all that much. But looking at what he was acquired for makes the Rangers morons for even considering moving him.

 

I for one think Salty projects as an average to below average defender with major power. We havent seen a catcher hit for 40 homer power in a long time (Piazza or Hundley as Mets were last if I remember correctly) and he has it stamped on his forehead.

[jacksonianmarch]

You're undervaluing Red Sox talent (not that I'm surprised ). Crisp and Masterson are too much.

 

First, I've already made my case: Crisp ~ Salty. Very good center fielders are very rare commodities--look, Coco cost Boston (indirectly) Edgar Renteria, Kelly Shoppach and cash. The rest of those trades were fungible talent, and Andy Marte was just a means of converting Renteria's value into a form desired by Cleveland. Coco cost Boston a lot. He's coming off a good year--he's worth a lot.

 

The question, then, is whether Masterson is pocket change or a significant trading chip. I submit that he's significant, for these reasons:

 

1) His High-A stats were posted in one of the worst pitchers' ballparks in MiLB. Here are the Park Factors:

 

Lancaster JetHawks H 1.16 2B 1.06 HR 1.84 W 1.08 K 1.01

 

To pull off a decent season pitching there is amazing. Masterson did it, and he did it with lousy defense. Masterson is a sinkerball pitcher on the caliber of Brandon Webb: he allowed only four home runs in almost a hundred IP with Lancaster by avoiding fly balls and line drives. Still, his defense allowed a .317 BABIP when he pitched, increasing hits by maybe 10% over what might be expected for an extreme ground ball pitcher.

 

2) His AA stats are inflated because he hit a wall at roughly 130 IP. Masterson's July OPS allowed at AA was .406; his August OPS allowed was .871. Kids run out of steam, and Masterson projects more as a relief pitcher than a starter: the August stats need to come with an asterisk...even though July and August combined were a 4.34 ERA with a 3.28 K/BB ratio, nothing shabby for a 22-year-old in AA. Notably, 66% of the balls in play against Masterson at AA were ground balls, and a mere 12% were line drives.

 

Entering 2007 BP PECOTA projected Masterson to be more valuable than Buchholz. I'm not sure of that--but I'm very sure that Masterson is a valuable prospect, more valuable than loose change in a transaction.

 

Crisp for Salty? Yeah. A mid-level prospect, too? Maybe. Masterson? No way.

 

Thanks to SoxProspects.com and Minor League Splits for reference material on Masterson:

 

http://www.soxprospects.com/players/masterson-justin.htm

http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/cgi-bin/plSearch.cgi

 

You also have to look at what he projects as, though. Masterson is a short arsenal pitcher who hit a huge wall late. Dont get me wrong, his short arsenal sounds solid, but he has setup/MR written all over him. You dont deal the guy you gave up Tex + 2 others for, to get a light hitting CFer and a prospect who projects to middle relief.

[ORS]

Short arsenal? He throws sinker, slider, change. Just like your ultra-valuable CMW. You know, the guy who all we hear about is, "Bowling ball, bowling ball, purple monkey dishwasher."

[KeepTheFaith1229]

The Rangers gave up Mark Texeira (young 40 HR slugger' date=' gold glover) and 2 of their best pitching prospects (which they dont have much of) to get their catcher of the future[/quote']

 

No they didn't. They got Salty, Elvis Andrus, Matt Harrison and Neftali Feliz for Tex and useless reliever Ron Mahay.

[Jayhawk Bill]

The Rangers gave up Mark Texeira (young 40 HR slugger' date=' gold glover) and 2 of their best pitching prospects (which they dont have much of) to get their catcher of the future.[/quote']

No they didn't. They got Salty, Elvis Andrus, Matt Harrison and Neftali Feliz for Tex and useless reliever Ron Mahay.

 

Exactly, and it was all for 1.33 seasons of Teixeira, not even two years' worth of playing time, and Teixeira wasn't cost-controlled for 2008. Let's look at what was written about the trade at the time:

 

First, Jon Daniels did what he needed to do, converting his biggest chip, Teixeira, into a solid package of prospects. Jarrod Saltalamacchia will end up as either the AL’s best-hitting catcher or an above-average first baseman. The Rangers get two months to develop a preference one way or another. Elvis Andrus may be, as Jay Jaffe alluded, an updated version of Joaquin Arias, but an 18-year-old who’s playing in High-A and whose numbers (.244/.330/.335) aren’t that far behind the league averages—with a home park that just obliterates offense—is very valuable. Neftali Perez is a hard-throwing upside play, and we should learn today who the second pitcher in the trade is.

 

I’ve come around on this deal from the Braves’ standpoint. I noted in my chat yesterday, and on radio in Austin, that Saltalamacchia probably would have given the Braves 75-80 percent of Teixeira’s production for a lot less cost. I think that underrates Teixeira, in no small part because the defensive difference between the two players is substantial. Saltalamacchia is a converted catcher, while Teixeira is an above-average glove man at first. This assumes the Braves would have gone ahead with Saltalamacchia, rather than continuing to play Julio Franco at first. The gap between Teixeira and Franco can’t be measured with existing technology.

 

This deal also gives the Braves additional lefty depth in Ron Mahay, and in total makes the Braves two, perhaps three wins better over the last two months.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6529

 

Salty was the centerpiece in return value going to Texas, but BP valued SS Elvis Andrus at roughly 80% of Salty's five-year value. Neftali Feliz was filthy at Danville this year, holding opposing batters to a .522 OPS, and he got 21 strikeouts in 13 IP at Spokane. Ron Mahay, of course, is a 36-year-old pitcher who played minor league baseball at ages 34 and 35--he filled a role for the Braves, but his value was negligible. Salty was only about half of the value going to Texas.

 

All of that for 1.33 seasons of Mark Teixeira, next year not cost-controlled. What would three full cost controlled seasons of Coco Crisp be worth--at least, perhaps, the half of Teixeira's 1.33 year value represented by Saltalamacchia?

 

Coco is not a very good center fielder. That is reserved to Ichiro, Hunter, Jones, Beltran, and Ellsbury might be in the category by next season. Yes he has speed and makes unbelievable catches... but over the last 2 seasons he fas failed to hit above .270, has a poor K:BB ratio, 10-15 HR power at best. Tell me, how often is it for a starting player to lose his job to a rookie during the playoffs?

 

Regarding your last question: Cheez, dunno? How often is it that rookies of Jacoby Ellsbury's caliber appear as late-season callups on teams that are good enough to make the ALCS? I think that you'd find a pretty high correlation.

 

But the issue isn't Ellsbury's value, it's Coco Crisp's. Sure, if you just look at his hitting, Coco is just below the median among full-time MLB center fielders. But let's combine hitting and defensive value in two run-denominated stats, VORP and FRAA:

 

NAME          	VORP+FRAA
C Granderson	93
Ichiro Suzuki	78
Carlos Beltran	60
Aaron Rowand	57
Hunter Pence	52
Grady Sizemore	47
B.J. Upton	43
Torii Hunter	40
Coco Crisp	40
Nick Swisher	38
G Matthews Jr.	29
Willy Taveras	23
Melky Cabrera	23
Johnny Damon	21
Mike Cameron	19
Marlon Byrd	16
Jacque Jones	16
Dave Roberts	14
Andruw Jones	13
Chris Young	9
Alfredo Amezaga	5
Jim Edmonds	0
David DeJesus	-1
Vernon Wells	-1
Corey Patterson	-3
Juan Pierre	-3
Bill Hall	-5

 

You mentioned Torii Hunter: Coco Crisp is suddenly tied with Hunter in value. He was better than Andruw Jones in, admittedly, an off year for Jones. Coco was tied for eighth-best CF in MLB using VORP+FRAA. I subjectively consider that "very good," although YMMV.

 

Looked at from another perspective, Coco was worth 6.0 WARP1 this year. He was forecast to be worth 13.1 wins from 2008-2010 entering 2007; that'll go up. Salty was forecast to be worth 12.7 wins over those same years; that'll possibly go down because of his somewhat disappointing 2007 (0.3 WARP1 in MLB this year due to low OBP and bad defense behind the plate, although his 85 AB in MiLB might add a win to that value).

 

***

 

Look, this is a classic case of a trade where it's easy to miss the players' respective value. Coco Crisp's value is his defense, which is, for many of us, almost intangible. Saltalamacchia's liability is his defense--he may be challenged to catch at the MLB level. If defensive stats are included, objective analysis rates Crisp as the same as or better than Salty. The only issue is the number of years on their respective obligations. That's worth some consideration, but I don't see it as worth a pitcher, Masterson, who projects to be Derek Lowe with a higher IQ once he's ready for the majors.

[ORS]

Crisp actually moves higher up that list if you use FRAR. IMO, if you are using VORP, you should use FRAR so that both offense and defense are relative to replacement level. As done now, you are on different scales.

 

The main reason I don't see this getting done is because these things aren't done in a vaccum. The public perception is they traded Tex for Saltalamacchia. The public perception will be that they traded Saltalamacchia for Crisp. A=B, B=C, therefore A=C, and for a club with any concern about public perception of how they are running things, I don't see a Tex for Crisp trade happening, which is what this will be viewed as. While it's important to do what's best for the club without regard to public perception, you can't ignore it because that perception holds the money they are after.

[das11209]

Rotoworld - no big surprise in this news:

 

Asked Wednesday about potentially re-signing Matt Clement, general manager Theo Epstein said that he "probably has better options elsewhere."

 

Clement was a major bust in Boston, posting a 5.19 ERA in 256 1/3 innings after signing a three-year deal, but has reportedly drawn interest from the Padres and Royals now that he's available cheaply as a reclamation project

[BoSox21]

Rotoworld - no big surprise in this news:

 

Asked Wednesday about potentially re-signing Matt Clement, general manager Theo Epstein said that he "probably has better options elsewhere."

 

Clement was a major bust in Boston, posting a 5.19 ERA in 256 1/3 innings after signing a three-year deal, but has reportedly drawn interest from the Padres and Royals now that he's available cheaply as a reclamation project

 

who's the idiot reporter who asked him that?

[BSN07]

who's the idiot reporter who asked him that?

 

Ya, you can't be to bright or up to date with the Sox to ask a question like that.

[jacksonianmarch]

Short arsenal? He throws sinker' date=' slider, change. Just like your ultra-valuable CMW. You know, the guy who all we hear about is, "Bowling ball, bowling ball, purple monkey dishwasher."[/quote']

 

even though he sucked in the playoffs, the bowling ball made him the winningest pitcher over the past 2 yrs.

 

And to say Masterson has a changeup is interesting to say the least. He's a sinker slider guy.

[TheKilo]

even though he sucked in the playoffs, the bowling ball made him the winningest pitcher over the past 2 yrs.

 

And to say Masterson has a changeup is interesting to say the least. He's a sinker slider guy.

 

SO basically the only pitchers who are allowed to develop new pitches are the Yanks?

 

Sounds good.

[Jayhawk Bill]

And to say Masterson has a changeup is interesting to say the least. He's a sinker slider guy.

 

Let's check a scouting report on Masterson:

 

Scouting Report: Big righty dominated Cape Cod League in 2005. Three-quarter delivery with a slinging-type motion. His arsenal includes a sinker, a slider and a changeup. His phenomenal sinker is plus with an excellent heavy drop, and he can vary its speed from 84-94 mph. Very good slider sits in the low 80s, mixed in with an improving 77-81 mph four-seam circle change.

 

http://www.soxprospects.com/players/masterson-justin.htm

 

You're right that his two best pitches are a sinker and a slider, but his changeup is his third pitch.

[TheKilo]

LOL

[jacksonianmarch]

there is a difference between throwing a pitch and considering it useful in an arsenal. Masterson has the perfect 1-2 punch for relief. The sox dont have the holes in the rotation for Masterson, yet they dont want to waste his arm. What does that leave you?

 

With Masterson in the pen in 09. That is where he will be and where he projects to be.

[ORS]

How many change ups does Roy Munson Wang throw a game? Three, maybe 4? And what does a spot in the Sox rotation (something there will be after this year with Schilling and Wake likely gone) have to do with his trade value as a starter? More thoughtless spew.

[Jayhawk Bill]

there is a difference between throwing a pitch and considering it useful in an arsenal.

 

Pardon, but I'm only familiar with the Red Sox, where pitchers try to throw pitches that will be effective. You appear to be familiar with the Yankees: in the Yankees system, do pitchers frequently choose to throw pitches that will not be useful, perhaps to get work for their defense or excitement for fans in the outfield?

[DUSTINMOHR4LIFE]

Well done Jayhawk Bill. Don't forget about baserunning: I believe Coco is 30 bases above average on the path's (Bill James Handbook 2008), which, however slight it may be, adds even more value.

[Fried Neckbones]

Personally (and this is one man's opinion) I think they should make a good solid run at getting Salty if Texas is serious about moving him. Even if it takes Coco and Masterson. The Sox have great organizational depth at pitching - it's not like Masterson is their only good prospect. They are pretty freaking weak at catcher though, and it's not like Tek is going to be around for that much longer. Trading down for Laird or someone as a stop-gap until you can develop the next big catcher? Why? If a player like Salty becomes available, and you have a chance to bring him on with at least one season to play with the likes of Schill and Tek, I say you do it. The way that the Sox mentor young players/prospects when they arrive, he'll practically be living at the Varitek's house. He would be a nice piece to add for the future (and present, given Tek's recent numbers) of this team. I like Masterson, don't get me wrong, and the price may be a little steep, but Salty would fill a big organizational need and Masterson is one of many in the system right now.

[example1]

Personally (and this is one man's opinion) I think they should make a good solid run at getting Salty if Texas is serious about moving him. Even if it takes Coco and Masterson. The Sox have great organizational depth at pitching - it's not like Masterson is their only good prospect. They are pretty freaking weak at catcher though' date=' and it's not like Tek is going to be around for that much longer. Trading down for Laird or someone as a stop-gap until you can develop the next big catcher? Why? If a player like Salty becomes available, and you have a chance to bring him on with at least one season to play with the likes of Schill and Tek, I say you do it. The way that the Sox mentor young players/prospects when they arrive, he'll practically be living at the Varitek's house. He would be a nice piece to add for the future (and present, given Tek's recent numbers) of this team. I like Masterson, don't get me wrong, and the price may be a little steep, but Salty would fill a big organizational need and Masterson is one of many in the system right now.[/quote']

 

Catching is definitely a priority.

 

That said, though, wouldn't getting a near MLB-ready catcher just push Varitek out the door? I saw that theo made an interesting comment someplace recently, saying that he thinks Tek still has some years in him. I think his bat will definitely quiet down, and who wouldn't love to have Saltalamacchia, but if he were to sit on the bench for a year or two it would stall, if not slow, his development.

 

All in all I love the idea of picking up a catcher of that caliber, but I just wonder about the timing of it. :dunno:

[ksushi]

I don't think it would push out Tek. Platoon Salty at C, and 1B and also rotate Youk and Lowell - if he signs - to spell them when they need rest. Salty could be a personal catcher for someone and spell Tek randomly to keep his legs fresh.

 

I would deal Coco, Bowden, and Masterson for Salty but obviously none of the blue chips.

 

- I probably like that better than getting Miguel Cabrera. Not to say Salty ~ Cabrera, but just that his versatility could help us keep guys fresh and swinging the bat well AND he comes with obvious potential.

[jacksonianmarch]

Pardon' date=' but I'm only familiar with the Red Sox, where pitchers try to throw pitches that will be effective. You appear to be familiar with the Yankees: in the Yankees system, do pitchers frequently choose to throw pitches that will not be useful, perhaps to get work for their defense or excitement for fans in the outfield?[/quote']

 

Funny.

 

The point is that Masterson's arsenal is VERY top heavy. Hence why he projects as a reliever. Most pitchers have one or two good pitches and a one or two average ones. Masterson has 2 good pitches and a minus pitch. He reminds me of a more advanced George Kontos in the Yankee system. Kontos "throws" 4 pitches. But two of them flat out suck and two of them are solid (FB, Slider). Hence why, even though he is starting in the minors, he grades out as a reliever. Its not a bad thing. Just means the arsenal is limited. It also doesnt mean that they cannot work and make that 3rd or 4th pitch better. Just means that right now, the change is so far behind the other two that he will have to work extra hard to work that one in. And if he doesnt, then starting isnt in his future.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Funny.

 

Thanks!

 

The point is that Masterson's arsenal is VERY top heavy. Hence why he projects as a reliever. Most pitchers have one or two good pitches and a one or two average ones. Masterson has 2 good pitches and a minus pitch.

 

No quarrels with that: my quibble was that you wrote that he had just two pitches. He has three, he uses three, but his changeup isn't MLB-caliber yet. I think that I've posted elsewhere that he likely projects as a relief pitcher, too.

 

I do, however, expect that he'll be very good if used strictly in relief, no more than once through the lineup each outing, even if he doesn't ever improve his changeup.

 

He reminds me of a more advanced George Kontos in the Yankee system. Kontos "throws" 4 pitches. But two of them flat out suck and two of them are solid (FB, Slider). Hence why, even though he is starting in the minors, he grades out as a reliever. Its not a bad thing. Just means the arsenal is limited. It also doesnt mean that they cannot work and make that 3rd or 4th pitch better. Just means that right now, the change is so far behind the other two that he will have to work extra hard to work that one in. And if he doesnt, then starting isnt in his future.

 

My understanding is that Kontos had better success with his curveball late this year and that he's been making good progress with his changeup in the Hawaiian Winter League--I wouldn't write him off as a potential starter just yet. [/tangent]

 

Just as I wouldn't write off Masterson as a starting pitcher, either.

[RobZombie]

Lets be clear. The Red Sox are not trading Coco Crisp for Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Salty is a young stud catcher and you don't trade those for mediocre offensive veteran CFs no matter how good their defense is.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Lets be clear. The Red Sox are not trading Coco Crisp for Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Salty is a young stud catcher and you don't trade those for mediocre offensive veteran CFs no matter how good their defense is.

 

Let's be clear. I give reasons for my posts. You're spouting your opinions as fact without any support whatsoever.

 

Treat my ideas with respect, I treat yours with respect. Treat mine like crap, and I treat yours likewise.

[das11209]

Not sure it is important - Youk shaving goatee for charity. Isn't that something like Damon did after we won in 2004?

 

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/baseball/mlb/11/12/bc.bba.youkilis.goatee.ap/index.html

[das11209]

I think this thread is the best place to rant. Like any other off-season - this is turning out to be Yanks exclusive hot-stove. For once - I would like my team to be the talk of the rumor world. Every news that comes out has to do with the Yankees. We won the world series damnit.

 

I hate the damn Yankees.

[BSN07]

If your the #1 story in the Hot Stove season its not for a good reason. It's because your trying to fill all the holes that held your team back mostly, or your a low budget team that has to sell of your best player. Personally I'll take the WS title with few holes to fill.

 

Besides the great deals the Sox usually do are the ones no one really hears about( Schilling, Beckkett, Lowell) and happens quickly and usually over Thanksgiving...

[das11209]

Rotten day for sox : Pretty much sums up how I feel

 

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2007/11/15/not_a_banner_day_for_fans/

[elsrbueno]

Rotten day for sox : Pretty much sums up how I feel

 

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2007/11/15/not_a_banner_day_for_fans/

 

I'm not sure this is that rotten a day for the Sox. I think Nick Cafardo did his Boston media duty to put a negative spin on a story to get more readership. He's starting to listen to Shaughnessy too much.

 

I think I'm on record (if you count old posts on this site and conversations with friends) that I'd like the Sox to resign Mike Lowell, so this isn't spin because the outlook is bleak, but at 4 years and $60 million I'd much rather someone else take that risk. Some facts about RSN's new favorite son:

 

1. He'll be 34 on opening day. 34 year old players don't typically improve going forward. No matter whose age curve you use, he's on the downward portion of it.

 

2. Lowell's RBI and average total were both career highs by a large margin, and to a certain extent out of his control. Batting Average is dictated partially to skill but also partially to luck. Based on the fact that Lowell's .324 was SO FAR above his career mark of .280 I'd expect his average to fall off from 2007 significantly. Along with that would inevitably come a drop in hits/doubles/homers and you'd assume RBIs. Also, you can't accumulate RBIs of the 2007 Lowell magnitude without people on base, meaning if he goes to a lesser lineup (either LA, St. Louis) even if he produces another good offensive season that number will likely drop.

 

3. Lowell had some very dramatic home/road splits in 2007:

 

Home:.373 .418 .575

Road: .276 .339 .428

 

This suggest to me that those of us who were predicting that Fenway would help Mike Lowell (me included) were right, but those road slash stats are very close to his career numbers: .280/.344/.468 which to me is a much better indication of his true ability. Put him in LA, Atlanta, St. Louis, or even NY and these are the types of numbers he'd put up. Decent? Sure, but worth $15 million? It's even laughable that he'd be considered a productive first baseman 4 years from now with those types of numbers.

 

Now, some things that aren't necessarily fact but should be taken into consideration:

 

Mike Lowell has a reputation for being a gold glove caliber third baseman. I admit, watching this guy play makes me glad he's on "our side." That having been said, some of the more sophisticated defensive metrics rank him at the bottom of the MAJORS in defense at third base. The Fielding Bible (a fascinating read BTW for folks who like numbers and over-analyzing baseball) and those who put the data together for it hired people to watch every single Major League baseball game over the course of 3 years and log where every single ball was hit. Read the book for more details, but they basically rate Mike Lowell as being very good at fielding bunts (probably the best in the league) and one of the best at fielding balls down the line (or to his right). Of course it's difficult to tell how much of that is good fielding and how much is good defensive placement, but the numbers suggest that he is in the lower third of third baseman at fielding balls right at him and to his left.

 

Another defensive Metric (called SAFE) developed by Shane Jensen (method explained here: http://stat.wharton.upenn.edu/~stjensen/research/safe.html ) rates Lowell as a very poor defensive third baseman.

 

Typically a good sign of a good conclusion is the fact that you can get the same result using different methods. OF COURSE, any of these methods have inherant flaws and they are not gospel, but perhaps us fans (and I'm guilty of it too at times) take what we see on face value and overrate/underrate players-- and there's a pretty good chance Mike Lowell isn't the golden boy we make him out to be.

 

Will I be happy if the Sox resign Lowell-- sure... if they do it AT THE RIGHT PRICE. If Mikey can get $60 million over 4 years from the another team, I'd give him a congratulatory phone call, thanking him for his service and let him walk away. There's no evidence I've seen anywhere to suggest that Mike Lowell is a superstar player capable of earning $15 million per for 4 years. I'd even walk away from 3 years and $45 if I were the Red Sox. Luckily, Theo and his team are not only smarter than me, but they also spend a lot more time and have a lot more resources than I do to make the correct decision, but I would not be surprised in the slightest if the Sox let Lowell walk here... and I wouldn't blame either party one bit.

[TheKilo]

Rotten day for sox : Pretty much sums up how I feel

 

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2007/11/15/not_a_banner_day_for_fans/

 

That's unfortunate.