Official 07 offseason thread

[riverside sluggers]

Rangers non-tendered RHP Akinori Otsuka and outfielder Nick Gorneault.

 

The Rangers are setting Otsuka free even though the reports back from his rehabilitation have been positive. With the way the relief market has blown up, it would have been worth the risk to pay Otsuka $4 million, especially since they still would have had him under control for 2009. This makes C.J. Wilson the current favorite to close for the Rangers, though the team figures to consider Octavio Dotel and maybe a couple of other options.

 

Very surprising that the Rangers are letting go a solid piece of their bullpen. Id def like Theo to look into getting him to help set up for Papelbon

[example1]

Very surprising that the Rangers are letting go a solid piece of their bullpen. Id def like Theo to look into getting him to help set up for Papelbon

 

Hell yeah. Go get him.

[das11209]

I like Kevin Cash being available to catch Wake.

 

Red Sox signed C Kevin Cash, RHP Scott Atchison, 1B Jeff Bailey, 2B Tony Granadillo, INF Keith Ginter, 2B-OF Joe Thurston and INF Gil Velazquez to minor league contracts and invited them to spring training.

 

Cash looked for a major league deal elsewhere after the Red Sox bumped him from their 40-man roster, but he's back after not finding one. He did a nice job catching the knuckler last season, making him a viable option for Jason Varitek despite his lack of skills on offense. The Red Sox are also keeping Granadillo, who figured to be in some demand after hitting .326/.411/.492 as a 23-year-old for Single-A Lancaster last season. No one here, besides maybe Cash, should have a chance of breaking camp with Boston.

[TheKilo]

I like Kevin Cash being available to catch Wake.

 

If he's the 3rd of 4th option, great. In no way should he be the backup.

[das11209]

If he's the 3rd of 4th option' date=' great. In no way should he be the backup.[/quote']

 

3rd more likely - but can be in the line-up when Wake is pitching. Bye Bellie.

[TheKilo]

3rd more likely - but can be in the line-up when Wake is pitching. Bye Bellie.

 

So we're gonna carry three catchers?

[das11209]

So we're gonna carry three catchers?

 

Depends how frequently Wake will be in starting rotation. If he is regular - and 2nd catcher can't catch knuckleball - what can you do though. If Wake comes up if someone is on DL - then we can call Cash from minor.

[das11209]

I will do Coco and Lugo for O'cab if we do not have to eat any salary or Santana deal is dead.

 

If Orlando Cabrera really is sincere about wanting to get onto the free-agent market the White Sox might as well know that as soon as possible. It's possible that they could get Coco Crisp and Julio Lugo from Boston for Cabrera, or that they might get a rich package of prospects from the Cubs and let Juan Uribe play shortstop for another year. Or maybe Cabrera would snap up the offer they made to Kosuke Fukudome -- $50 million over four years. That wouldn't be a bad thing, either, as it would secure a position at which the Sox have few attractive internal options.

[TheKilo]

I will do Coco and Lugo for O'cab if we do not have to eat any salary or Santana deal is dead.

 

That's an atrocious, awful deal.

[das11209]

That's an atrocious' date=' awful deal.[/quote']

 

Not sure how much Coco's trade value is there - I will however take O'cab over Lugo any day.

 

Edit - TheKilo - do you think Crede + O'Cab for Coco and Lugo is fair deal? Another point I just remembered is White Sox might ask for a lot given the experience of the Dye trade talk with them last year.

[TheKilo]

Not sure how much Coco's trade value is there - I will however take O'cab over Lugo any day.

 

Edit - TheKilo - do you think Crede + O'Cab for Coco and Lugo is fair deal? Another point I just remembered is White Sox might ask for a lot given the experience of the Dye trade talk with them last year.

 

That's an awful, atrocious deal.

 

Where would Crede play?

[das11209]

That's an awful, atrocious deal.

 

Where would Crede play?

 

I have run out of trade ideas then - but I would like to have O'Cab back.

[BSN07]

Lugo+Hansen+low-mid level prospect would be good for Ocab.

 

 

Coco i think is going to be part of a bigger deal or maybe a deal that brings in a young C.

[TheKilo]

Lugo+Hansen+low-mid level prospect would be good for Ocab.

 

 

Coco i think is going to be part of a bigger deal or maybe a deal that brings in a young C.

 

What is the fascination with Cabrera? I don't get it.

[das11209]

I do think that the fans here are over valuing Coco because he had a career defensive year. Don't get me wrong - as a sox fan - I would love to get the world for him. Reality is even after all the big name CF's (Hunter, Jones, Rowand) signed - there is not much demand for Coco. I am afraid( hope I am wrong) - we are not gonna get much for him - if any. I am fine with him being 4th outfielder( if no Santana trade or we do not get enough for him) - but I think he will start bitching about that scenario.

[BSN07]

What is the fascination with Cabrera? I don't get it.

 

None. My post was more of a hypothetical. I'm fine with Lugo at SS.

[ORS]

Coco + Lugo is actually a good deal in some respects. It would essentially end the possibility of getting Santana because Ellsbury would not be expendable, but if that falls through, I'd actually like that deal. They'd get rid of 3 years of Lugo and get an upgrade on a 1 year deal. To get this benefit, they give up an expendable, cost-controlled Crisp. Now there's no super-suck (offensively) blocking Lowrie if he continues to show he can handle SS. I like that move.

[Jayhawk Bill]

I like Kevin Cash being available to catch Wake.

 

Red Sox signed C Kevin Cash, RHP Scott Atchison, 1B Jeff Bailey, 2B Tony Granadillo, INF Keith Ginter, 2B-OF Joe Thurston and INF Gil Velazquez to minor league contracts and invited them to spring training.

 

Cash looked for a major league deal elsewhere after the Red Sox bumped him from their 40-man roster, but he's back after not finding one. He did a nice job catching the knuckler last season, making him a viable option for Jason Varitek despite his lack of skills on offense. The Red Sox are also keeping Granadillo, who figured to be in some demand after hitting .326/.411/.492 as a 23-year-old for Single-A Lancaster last season. No one here, besides maybe Cash, should have a chance of breaking camp with Boston.

 

I am absolutely ecstatic to see Kevin Cash back on a minor league contract, no longer encumbering the 40-man roster.

 

Kevin Cash is, perhaps, the best defensive catcher I have ever seen play for the Red Sox.

 

For those who understand what I'm talking about, he had a 111 BP DFT defensive rate while serving as Tim Wakefield's caddy. That's mind-boggling. For contrast, Doug Mirabelli averaged a 90 DFT fielding rate the past two years (21 runs worse per 100 games). Josh Bard had a 33 DFT fielding rate while serving as Wakefield's catcher (yes, 78 runs worse per 100 games...0.78 runs per game worse than Cash defensively).

 

There is, of course, the minor point that Cash has a career batting line of .167/.223/.265. He'll be 30 next year; he's not going to learn how to hit.

 

What he does offer is the opportunity to promote Kottaras or a different catching prospect who still has option years for a tryout. He offers insurance in case Mirabelli injures himself, perhaps by crashing through the floorboards after the players' buffet. (Have any of you here ever read the song parody "The Wreck of the Doug Mirabelli?") Kevin Cash is a bad hitter but an adequate overall catcher, and he's one of only two catchers on earth proven to be able to catch Tim Wakefield.

 

Again, I am beyond happy. I am ecstatic.

[das11209]

I am absolutely ecstatic to see Kevin Cash back on a minor league contract, no longer encumbering the 40-man roster.

 

Kevin Cash is, perhaps, the best defensive catcher I have ever seen play for the Red Sox.

 

For those who understand what I'm talking about, he had a 111 BP DFT defensive rate while serving as Tim Wakefield's caddy. That's mind-boggling. For contrast, Doug Mirabelli averaged a 90 DFT fielding rate the past two years (21 runs worse per 100 games). Josh Bard had a 33 DFT fielding rate while serving as Wakefield's catcher (yes, 78 runs worse per 100 games...0.78 runs per game worse than Cash defensively).

 

There is, of course, the minor point that Cash has a career batting line of .167/.223/.265. He'll be 30 next year; he's not going to learn how to hit.

 

What he does offer is the opportunity to promote Kottaras or a different catching prospect who still has option years for a tryout. He offers insurance in case Mirabelli injures himself, perhaps by crashing through the floorboards after the players' buffet. (Have any of you here ever read the song parody "The Wreck of the Doug Mirabelli?") Kevin Cash is a bad hitter but an adequate overall catcher, and he's one of only two catchers on earth proven to be able to catch Tim Wakefield.

 

Again, I am beyond happy. I am ecstatic.

 

I am guessing Cash might be able to run better than Belli - though chances of any one of them getting on base is remote.

[das11209]

Free agent Eric Hinske said Sunday that he might have a deal by the end of the week.

 

The Boston Herald believes he could land with Arizona, though the Diamondbacks have indicated their happy with their bench. If it's Arizona, it should probably be taken as a sign that the team doesn't think Chad Tracy will be ready for Opening Day.

 

Bye Hinske - I will remember you for the best outfield catch I have ever seen - but seriously - thanks for not coming back with us.

[BoSox21]

Red Sox signed RHP Dan Kolb and RHP Dan Miceli to minor league contracts and invited them to spring training.

 

Finally some major additions for the World Champs. Kolb, who saved 39 games for the Brewers in 2004, has a 5.53 ERA in 109 innings in the NL the last three seasons. Miceli took 2007 completely off while collecting $500,000 from the Rays in the second year of his two-year deal. Neither veteran should have any chance of making the club.

 

Rotoworld

[jacksonianmarch]

Coco + Lugo is actually a good deal in some respects. It would essentially end the possibility of getting Santana because Ellsbury would not be expendable' date=' but if that falls through, I'd actually like that deal. They'd get rid of 3 years of Lugo and get an upgrade on a 1 year deal. To get this benefit, they give up an expendable, cost-controlled Crisp. Now there's no super-suck (offensively) blocking Lowrie if he continues to show he can handle SS. I like that move.[/quote']

 

There is the minor issue of the large chunk of change Lugo commands. If the sox picked that up, then a deal of Lugo and Crisp is feasible for a guy like Greene.

[ORS]

Try reading what I posted again. I'm aware of that issue, and a cost controlled Crisp is compensation for it.

[TheKilo]

Bye Hinske - I will remember you for the best outfield catch I have ever seen - but seriously - thanks for not coming back with us.

 

Who would you have replace Hinske?

[jacksonianmarch]

Try reading what I posted again. I'm aware of that issue' date=' and a cost controlled Crisp is compensation for it.[/quote']

 

cost controlled for a .260 hitter? He's getting what he deserves. Having a no hit, no glove SS at 8 mil a yr is hardly compensated by getting a no bat, all glove CFer for 5 mil. Especially when Greene is rather cheap in his own right. Lugo+Crisp+Cash

[TheKilo]

cost controlled for a .260 hitter? He's getting what he deserves. Having a no hit' date=' no glove SS at 8 mil a yr is hardly compensated by getting a no bat, all glove CFer for 5 mil. Especially when Greene is rather cheap in his own right. Lugo+Crisp+Cash[/quote']

 

Continue to dismiss Crisp's defensive abilities, please.

[das11209]

Who would you have replace Hinske?

 

I don't give a $$* - can't watch Hinske and Cora any more. Replace him with Carter, Brandon Moss, ballboy - just get him out of here.

[jacksonianmarch]

Continue to dismiss Crisp's defensive abilities' date=' please.[/quote']

 

Crisp is a very good CFer who was never a good CFer until he came into Fenway. He brings speed and defense. But he brings nearly nothing on the offensive side. Hence, 5 mil is about right in terms of price. It isnt like the sox are saving a ton of cash on him. If he were a FA, I wouldnt expect him to make much more than that. Hence, the whole "cost controlled" argument doesnt float.

[ORS]

Sure it does. He's a 6 WARP and 16 Win Share player because of that defense. Players with similar WS contribution last year include DeJesus, Sheffield, Kotchman, Vidro, Andruw Jones, Chris Young, Josh Bard, and Brian McCann. Not an all-star team, but all guys who you'd expect to make more than $5M either now or in the future when they pass arb.

 

BTW, you suck at this.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Using 2007 stats:

 

Crisp: 6.0 WARP1

Lugo: 0.5 WARP1

 

Total WARP: 6.5 / year

 

Greene: 4.3 WARP1

 

Total WARP: 4.3 / year

 

Both Lugo and Greene seem too low in WARP. That's partly because neither is a great fielder; that's partly because WARP works on current mean productivity for the position, and there are currently several excellent shortstops. Greene is roughly an MLB-average shortstop, all things considered.

 

2008 Salary:

 

Crisp: $4.75 MM

Lugo: $9 MM

 

Total Salary: $13.75 MM

 

Greene: ~$7 MM (likely arb award range; he made $2.25 MM last year, but he hit 27 HR as a shortstop)

 

Total Salary: ~$7 MM

 

Delta WARP1: 2.2 wins

Delta Salary: $6.75 MM

 

Cost per anticipated extra marginal win: $6.75MM/2.2 wins = $3.07 MM per win

 

It looks to me as if the extra salary is roughly worth the extra talent, because the price of new free agents would probably approach or exceed $3 million for each win added to a pennant-contending team. The counterargument might be that the average marginal cost per marginal win this century has been closer to $1.5 million. I'd suggest that the $1.5 million figure is too low for two reasons: first, free agent salaries went up sharply after the 2006 season; and second, the price to improve a good team is greater than the price to improve a cellar-dweller, and the Padres tied for the Wild Card NLDS berth in 2007.

 

Furthermore, San Diego has nobody coming up at shortstop--they could use Lugo effectively for years. Add into the mix the fact that Crisp and Lugo would both thrive in PETCO while Greene is more likely to thrive in Fenway, and that one gets fewer years from Greene than from Crisp and Lugo, and the deal continues to make sense to me without Boston offering any salary for Greene.

 

But the work above offers a model for the greatest amount of Lugo's salary that might be justified as a part of this hypothetical trade--roughly $1.6 MM per marginal win ($3.07MM - $1.5MM), or roughly $3.5MM per year for each of the three remaining years. One could certainly tinker with discounted performance values for 2009-2010 to adjust this, but the range of zero to $3.5 MM looks to cover the issue...

 

...and suggestions of Boston picking up all of Lugo's salary as a condition of such a hypothetical trade look outside the reasonable range.

 

YMMV.