The Beckett Deal Revisited (or is it The Ramirez Deal?)

[MANNYHOF24]

My biggest problem with Jayhawks arguement IMO, is when he says that the Sox would have won 102 games if they hadn't made the Beckett deal. That is the biggest BS I have ever heard. Ramirez did put up good numbers in 06, but who is to say that he would have put up the same numbers here? I know its hard for you sabermetric people to believe, but pressure does exist, and there is a little more pressure in Boston than Florida wouldnt you think? Hey we all know that Hanley is going to be a great SS, but we would not have won the 06 WS with the Rotation we had, and last time I checked Hanley couldn't heal the injured. Also to say that Anibel would have pitched well here is also a ridculous statement. I doubt he would have made much of an impact at all with of 06 Sox. You know the last time I checked 2006 was in the past, and we just won the WS this year. If I was you I would just enjoy, and they realize how amazing Josh Beckett was in the postseason for us this year. Seriously, we are the Red Sox, we have the money to be consistent for the forseebable future. Also the last time I checked we have a pretty bright future with the likes of Ellsbury, Perdoia, Buchholz, Moss, and Lowrie. Seriously enjoy the fact that the FO has made this a perinal contendor for the next 10 years.

[Jayhawk Bill]

My biggest problem with Jayhawks arguement IMO' date=' is when he says that the Sox would have won 102 games if they hadn't made the Beckett deal. That is the biggest BS I have ever heard.[/quote']

 

First, thank you for the superlative.

 

Second, what is it? The non-linearity of WARP analysis as one veers too far away from 81 wins? Pardon if you took 102 wins--with both Arroyo and Burnett--as an attempt at exact projection. The range of 98 to 105 was more what I had in mind.

 

Ramirez did put up good numbers in 06, but who is to say that he would have put up the same numbers here? I know its hard for you sabermetric people to believe, but pressure does exist, and there is a little more pressure in Boston than Florida wouldnt you think? Hey we all know that Hanley is going to be a great SS, but we would not have won the 06 WS with the Rotation we had, and last time I checked Hanley couldn't heal the injured. Also to say that Anibel would have pitched well here is also a ridculous statement. I doubt he would have made much of an impact at all with of 06 Sox.

 

Nah. You're veering from mere unfounded subjective disagreement to absurdity as the paragraph progresses. Anibal Sanchez pitched a no-hitter in 2006. While I concede differences between leagues and situations, claiming that a no-hitter caliber pitcher who was 10-3 with the hapless Marlins with a 2.83 ERA in 17 games started would be less than excellent with the Red Sox is ridiculous.

 

You know the last time I checked 2006 was in the past, and we just won the WS this year. If I was you I would just enjoy, and they realize how amazing Josh Beckett was in the postseason for us this year.

 

I do! I celebrate that we can win a World Series despite the blunders that every MLB team makes: the Beckett-Lowell trade, the misuse of Wily Mo Pena, the squandering of Kelly Shoppach...I could go on. We can point instead to the decisions not to sign Johnny Damon or Pedro Martinez, or the gamble taken on David Ortiz, or the last-minute acquisition of Dave Roberts that resulted in one absolutely crucial stolen base that changed the karma of Red Sox Nation forever.

 

Seriously, we are the Red Sox, we have the money to be consistent for the forseebable future. Also the last time I checked we have a pretty bright future with the likes of Ellsbury, Perdoia, Buchholz, Moss, and Lowrie. Seriously enjoy the fact that the FO has made this a perinal contendor for the next 10 years.

 

I'm on record elsewhere in cyberspace as claiming that Theo Epstein appears to be on track to become the greatest GM in MLB history, with a record in his first few years that is unsurpassed.

 

I still think that trading away Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez plus two other prospects for Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell was a mistake.

[redsoxrules]

We do NOT win the WS this year if lowell and beckett werent on the team

[Jayhawk Bill]

We do NOT win the WS this year if lowell and beckett werent on the team

 

Why not? :dunno:

 

My positions are supported--can you support yours, or is it just your opinion?

[a700hitter]

Why not? :dunno:

 

My positions are supported--can you support yours, or is it just your opinion?

Statistics are indicators of performance and probability, but they do not precisely predict the future. I am not denigrating the use of stats in building a team, but I would doubt that there were any statistical computations that predicted Ohio State losing this weekend or New Orleans losing to the winless Rams. Your opinion is based on your review of statistics, but it is still an opinion. It is no more valid or accurate than that of a dedicated knowledgeable fan. If you asked the guys in the clubhouse, they would probably agree with redsoxrules without consulting any stats. Are their opinions also invalid or less worthy than yours? I think playing with those guys gives the players something more to support their opinions than any of us could offer.

[Jayhawk Bill]

If you asked the guys in the clubhouse' date=' they would probably agree with redsoxrules without consulting any stats. Are their opinions also invalid or less worthy than yours? [/quote']

 

Did you ask the players in the clubhouse, or are you assuming their support because you're out of ideas of your own?

 

If you haven't, your last sentence is extraordinarily presumptive.

[a700hitter]

Did you ask the players in the clubhouse, or are you assuming their support because you're out of ideas of your own?

 

If you haven't, your last sentence is extraordinarily presumptive.

Several of them have said that they don't win without Mike Lowell. Ortiz on Conan. Pedroia was quoted at length on the subject. I am sorry that I didn't survey the whole team to have better data.. you smug jerk.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Several of them have said that they don't win without Mike Lowell. Ortiz on Conan. Pedroia was quoted at length on the subject. I am sorry that I didn't survey the whole team to have better data.. you smug jerk.

 

Enlighten me. There were 25 on the roster: quotes from 13 would be conclusive. Thus far you've got zero, unless you've got YouTube or transcripts or links.

 

You smug jerk.

 

***

 

More to the point, no player is going to say, "We won, but we could've done it without the guys chosen by the media as ALCS MVP and WS MVP." That would be unacceptable in our professional sports community, regardless of the potential truth of the statement. I know that; you know that.

 

If you disagree, say "Cheez, JHB, you make a good case but I've got to subjectively disagree as an informed fan." Were that it, I'd say "Cool:" in fact, we had a similar exchange this weekend. Your posts don't stop at that; they try to call me wrong without a shred of evidence except your opinion.

 

***

 

Lay off. Put me on ignore--I won't bother you. You call my posts venomous; if that's within forum standards, I've got wide range to use in refuting every position you take if you persist in this flame war.

 

*****************************************************************

 

Moderators: You didn't act when I reported the post where I was insulted as "venomous" by a700hitter. If there are dual standards here, if he can do that and I can't, ban me now and be done. If you want researched posts, I offer that. If you want flame wars, I really prefer that those be avoided through moderation, but I'll participate if provoked and if that's the accepted standard.

[redsoxrules]

Why not? :dunno:

 

My positions are supported--can you support yours, or is it just your opinion?

 

ok , so who would have won us 20 games this year in the place of beckett?

[Jayhawk Bill]

ok ' date=' so who would have won us 20 games this year in the place of beckett?[/quote']

 

What Boston would've needed is enough talent to reach the ALDS, not necessarily a single twenty-game winner.

 

One very realistic scenario is that Boston would have signed AJ Burnett, kept Hanley Ramirez and never signed Julio Lugo, played Youkilis at third base, replaced Jeff Bailey at first base with Carlos Pena, and had enough money left over for another free agent. Carlos Pena 2007 > Mike Lowell 2007 and Hanley Ramirez 2007 >> Julio Lugo 2007. That more than offsets any difference between Burnett and Beckett--they're both sub-4.00 ERA pitchers who pitched most of the season.

[redsoxrules]

What Boston would've needed is enough talent to reach the ALDS, not necessarily a single twenty-game winner.

 

One very realistic scenario is that Boston would have signed AJ Burnett, kept Hanley Ramirez and never signed Julio Lugo, played Youkilis at third base, replaced Jeff Bailey at first base with Carlos Pena, and had enough money left over for another free agent. Carlos Pena 2007 > Mike Lowell 2007 and Hanley Ramirez 2007 >> Julio Lugo 2007. That more than offsets any difference between Burnett and Beckett--they're both sub-4.00 ERA pitchers who pitched most of the season.

 

beckett had 5 more starts than burnett , we only won the al east by 2 games , without beckett I dont think we win the east ,wich means we dont get home field advantage wich is a big + for this team

[Jayhawk Bill]

beckett had 5 more starts than burnett ' date=' we only won the al east by 2 games , without beckett I dont think we win the east ,wich means we dont get home field advantage wich is a big + for this team[/quote']

 

Let's check runs created, source Baseball Reference:

 

Mike Lowell: 109

Julio Lugo: 63

 

Carlos Pena: 135

Hanley Ramirez: 141

 

The difference is 172 to 276...the 2007 Boston Red Sox could've scored roughly 100 more runs without Lowell and Lugo.

 

Beckett (ERA 3.27) had five more starts than Burnett. Those starts might've gone to Lester (ERA 4.57) or Gabbard (ERA 3.73) or even Buchholz (ERA 1.59) had Beckett not been around. Had they gone to Lester, Boston might've allowed roughly five more runs in five starts.

 

I think 100 runs might overcome five...YMMV.

[Rdsxmbnt]

You can't honestly fault the Red Sox for not sticking with Carlos Pena. That's not realistic at all, and if any team thought he was going to have the season he just had he probaly would have gotten more of an offer than what TB presented him.

[Jayhawk Bill]

You can't honestly fault the Red Sox for not sticking with Carlos Pena. That's not realistic at all' date=' and if any team thought he was going to have the season he just had he probaly would have gotten more of an offer than what TB presented him.[/quote']

 

One could track my posts in cyberspace from last autumn suggesting that he possibly be retained even with both Lowell and Youkilis (and Ortiz) because of his bat, but that was certainly a minority perspective.

 

Without Lowell, Jeff Bailey would've been supplanted by Carlos Pena last August, and keeping Pena without Lowell is almost automatic, even if his performance in 2007 was better than almost anybody expected.

 

I agree that expecting Boston to keep him as well as Lowell, Youkilis and Ortiz is unrealistic--but I disagree if Lowell were removed from the calculus.

[a700hitter]

More to the point' date=' no player is going to say, "We won, but we could've done it without the guys chosen by the media as ALCS MVP and WS MVP." That would be unacceptable in our professional sports community, regardless of the potential truth of the statement. I know that; you know that.[/quote']I figured you would discount their opinions even though they were not asked if they could have won the championship without him. My point was that players know better than the rest of us what a guy contributes. I doubt they are refering to stats when they form their opinions whatever they may be, and I don't presume to know their real opinion about the issue.

 

If you disagree' date=' say "Cheez, JHB, you make a good case but I've got to subjectively disagree as an informed fan." Were that it, I'd say "Cool:" in fact, we had a similar exchange this weekend. Your posts don't stop at that; they try to call me wrong without a shred of evidence except your opinion.[/quote']Re-read my post. I was only making the point that, whether backed up by statistics or not, opinions are opinions. You are the one that invalidates and denigrates any opinion unless it is backed up with a stack of statistics. I appreciate the research and I find a lot of the statistics to be interesting and informative, but they are not conclusive with regard to any hypothetical set of facts. I never said you were wrong.

[TheKilo]

I gotta say...I don't agree with JHB on this exact matter but he's very articulate and raises points I hadn't considered. This is some of the best discussion I've read in a while.

 

Unfortunately, he's being attacked for his use of stats and not being responded to in the same articulate manner. A shame, really.

[schillingouttheks]

Moderators: You didn't act when I reported the post where I was insulted as "venomous" by a700hitter. If there are dual standards here' date=' if he can do that and I can't, ban me now and be done. If you want researched posts, I offer that. If you want flame wars, I really prefer that those be avoided through moderation, but I'll participate if provoked and if that's the accepted standard.[/quote']

 

I haven't received notice of a reported post. You're free to fire back - there is no dual standard. We just ask that it not get totally out of hand.

 

BTW, you're dealing with the flaming quite well. I agree with Kilo that it's a shame that you get blasted the way you do for offering a different insight, but please don't let that keep you from posting in the way that you do.

[rician blast]

What Boston would've needed is enough talent to reach the ALDS, not necessarily a single twenty-game winner.

 

One very realistic scenario is that Boston would have signed AJ Burnett, kept Hanley Ramirez and never signed Julio Lugo, played Youkilis at third base, replaced Jeff Bailey at first base with Carlos Pena, and had enough money left over for another free agent. Carlos Pena 2007 > Mike Lowell 2007 and Hanley Ramirez 2007 >> Julio Lugo 2007. That more than offsets any difference between Burnett and Beckett--they're both sub-4.00 ERA pitchers who pitched most of the season.

 

 

If "ifs and buts were candy and nuts...."

 

You've made some very good points and have attempted to support them with some interesting analysis. There are many, many other ways the Sox FO could have gone. Perhaps they still would have won it...perhaps not. Because the Sox have deep resources, they're better able to absorb the impact of trades they may have "lost" (based on certain statistical analysis). These resources will help the Red Sox to recover from trading Hanley, I am sure.

 

The "very realistic scenario" presented above is likely one of many realistic scenarios, but if that, or some other scenario, were to have occurred, the stats wouldn't guarantee a successful result, they'd only help predict the likelihood of those results. If you measure the trade based on fact, not supposition, projection, hypotheticals, etc. you can conclude that the Ramirez trade did not stand in the way of the Red Sox winning the 2007 WS...that much is clear. Beyond that we can all present our own arguments, support them with what ever analysis is deemed appropriate and at best develop our own opinion of the trade...and that's the neat part of this...there are a myriad of ways to look at the trade and so long as we're at least willing to read and consider opposing views, it makes for good conversation.

 

The "trade-off" (no pun intended) of winning now versus potentially giving greater long-term value away is (1) a "trade-off that paid-off" (at least in the near term) and (2) was apparently acceptable to the Sox ownership group (cuz IMO Theo does not act autonomously).

 

The above being said, I'm of the opinion that the trade absolutely was a win-win and that the potential for over-analysis is great here.

[redsoxrules]

Let's check runs created, source Baseball Reference:

 

Mike Lowell: 109

Julio Lugo: 63

 

Carlos Pena: 135

Hanley Ramirez: 141

 

The difference is 172 to 276...the 2007 Boston Red Sox could've scored roughly 100 more runs without Lowell and Lugo.

 

Beckett (ERA 3.27) had five more starts than Burnett. Those starts might've gone to Lester (ERA 4.57) or Gabbard (ERA 3.73) or even Buchholz (ERA 1.59) had Beckett not been around. Had they gone to Lester, Boston might've allowed roughly five more runs in five starts.

 

 

 

 

I think 100 runs might overcome five...YMMV.

 

 

what makes you think that carlos pena would of been still playing here if we didn't make that trade ? you cant count his numbers on this

[rician blast]

Not sure if this has come up, but...Wasn't Theo on hiatus when this deal took place? I think this was a Lucchino/Lajoie brokered deal. I know most of the focus has been on the trade itself, but as far as assigning credit/blame, perhaps its not appropriate to give Theo any :thumbsup: or :thumbdown regarding this trade.

[ORS]

Using the criteria where $$/performance is considered and the only time allowed in the analysis is the time left under current contract, then I can provide a quick synopsis that applies to every trade. Ever.

 

The team getting prospects always wins. Every time.

 

Lock the thread.

[soxfan17881]

I'd just like to stick my two cents in here...

 

I believe statistics to be as important as the Sox FO does. But baseball can not be totally broken down by numbers alone.

 

I say that if you were to ask Michael Hill (in a chat over a beer, not on the record in front of a camera) who got the better end of the deal, he would tell you that having the ALCS MVP, the rightful but robbed Cy Young winner, a 20 game winner, and the WS MVP on your (World Championship) team is not something you should ever regret, Hanley Ramirez's runs created not withstanding.

[Mr Crunchy]

i dont know what the argument is

both teams won here

florida finished in last and the sox won the world series led by 4-0 1.20 josh becketts playoff perfermance.

 

when you're going for gold you need a stud

we got him,got him real cheap and for a long time.

 

when you're a cellar dwelling team who draws 8000 people a night you need young cheap talent or you'd be forced to fold your franchise

ani sanchez and hanley fit like a glove.

 

everyone wins here

[Jayhawk Bill]

I haven't received notice of a reported post. You're free to fire back - there is no dual standard. We just ask that it not get totally out of hand.

 

BTW, you're dealing with the flaming quite well. I agree with Kilo that it's a shame that you get blasted the way you do for offering a different insight, but please don't let that keep you from posting in the way that you do.

 

Thanks for the clarification. PM me if you want details on the reported post and follow-up PM: it's probably a moot point.

 

I've got your guidance, and I'll do my utmost to work within your standards--thank you.

[VJCPatriot]

I think that the Red Sox got a hell of a deal.

 

Josh Beckett - staff ace, only 20 game winner in the big leagues, pitching us to the World Series Championship. Absolutely clutch in the playoffs with a 4-0 1.20 era postseason.

 

Mike Lowell - gold glove 3rd baseman, World Series MVP, led the team in clutch hitting in the playoffs.

 

Anytime you get a World Series ring out of the deal, you WIN the deal, period.

That's just my take on it.

[BSN07]

I think that the Red Sox got a hell of a deal.

 

Josh Beckett - staff ace, only 20 game winner in the big leagues, pitching us to the World Series Championship. Absolutely clutch in the playoffs with a 4-0 1.20 era postseason.

 

Mike Lowell - gold glove 3rd baseman, World Series MVP, led the team in clutch hitting in the playoffs.

 

Anytime you get a World Series ring out of the deal, you WIN the deal, period.

That's just my take on it.

 

Yes but you have to remember that FL won and got what they wanted too.

 

The got to uload Mike Lowell's salary and send off the soon to be very expensive Josh Beckett. And they got probably the top SS in the league and all around one of the best players for X amount of cost controlled years.

 

Both teams got exactly what they wanted. It migh be the most even trade of all time...

[TheKilo]

This trade will go down as one of the top 5 lopsided deals in Red Sox history. Against the Red Sox. Beckett is having as good a year as you will ever see from this guy. He is not an elite pitcher. He is not a Santana, or a Halliday, etc. He is a good pitcher, but not one that will strike fear in the hearts of opposing hitters.

 

If I was starting a team from scratch, I would probably take Ramirez first, or in the top 3.

 

Look at this guys line:

 

G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB BA OBP SLG OPS

Season 115 475 95 162 35 5 22 62 38 .341 .394 .575 .969

 

As a SHORTSTOP!!!!

 

This guy is the prototypical five tool player. He can hit, hit for power, run, throw, and catch. Where you can say the overall returns have been a wash for the teams over the two years [they haven't, but for arguments sake, I'll say that] there isn't a GM in baseball who would blink for half a second if he could get Ramirez for Lowell and Beckett. I don't know when this guy is a free agent, but I would just deliver a truck full of cash for this guy. He is a bona fide star playing in a pitchers park. The Red Sox would have won the pennant last year and cruised to 100 wins this year if they had this guy. Imagine a lineup with Ramirez, Youkilis, Ortiz, and Manny.

 

lolwut

[Soxfan1]

http://farm2.static.flickr.com/1228/915231775_835ae404e1.jpg

[Cocos Disciples]

http://www.esreality.com/files/placeimages/2007/55173-lolwut.jpg

[Jayhawk Bill]

Hmmm...let's check 2008 values and costs thus far:

 

Lowell + Beckett: 12.9 VORP; $21.5 million (plus $1 million in amortized signing bonuses)

Hanley Ramirez: 23.7 VORP; $439,000