July 20th vs. Chicago

[Mr Crunchy]

by 7/30 we were beat

but on 6+15 we were in the hunt but wounded

the players got the message from the brass that 06 was gone and they acted accordingly

wakefields 200 ip missed hurt bigtime and the 4+5 slots in general were just gimmes for the other guys

becks didnt get it together till late eitherand by then papi and manny were done

 

the yanks got abreau lidle and wilson but they needed a stud arm

this next 10 days will be eye opening in regards to how much the brass wants it all

almost every year the yanks or our competetion trumps us at the deadline

we get the bunny kims and joe sambitos of the world

the yanks grab up king kong cliff johnson or denny neagle or jeff weaver or whoever the best available guys are

we get rachelle tarver from pawtucket and oakland lands willie mcgee and dave henderson

86 was our most successful getting seaver hendu and spike owens

the year we got suppan sauerback and kim was our worst

its not an exact science but you do need to give up coin and prospects to land what you need

[a700hitter]

How quickly would they be replaced if this team won a WS? Who would be the better Kevin' date=' Millar or Youkilis? Mueller or Lowell? Which gritty veteran do you want? Tek is still there (you neglected to mention the captain of the team, who they resigned ABOVE Johnny Damon--which appears smart now). Do you miss Scott Williamson? How about Alan Embree? Should we get rid of Delcarmen and Okajima? How about Keith Foulke. Boy I miss him. I wish that papelbon kid would take a seat. I can't believe they drafted that guy![/quote']

The idea is not to compare the replacements to the performance of the guys that they replaced after their decline. The idea is to bring in replacements that perform at the level of the guys replaced before their decline. Y2006-07 oukilis is not better than the 2003-04 Millar. Lowell is not better than the 2003-04 Mueller. 2003-04 Damon is better than 2007 Crisp. 2003 Nixon is better than 2007 Drew. 2003 Nomar is better offensively than 2005 Renteria, 2006 Gonzo and 2007 Lugo. Let's leave names out of it. The FO has done a very bad job of replacing the 2003 offensive performance.

[CrespoBlows]

Helton is healthy this year. He was injured last year and the prior year' date=' so his numbers were down. You didn't consider that his numbers were down due to injury. You concluded that he was in a precipitous decline. [/quote']

 

I considered that Helton's power numbers were falling since his peak years in 2001, he wasn't getting any younger, and he had massive home/road splits. I concluded that this guy was not a good bet going foward, and wasn't worth what the Rockies wanted. (Lowell, Tavarez, and Hansen were fine, the cash wasn't, and neither was Youkilis)

 

He's healthy now, and his numbers are good and improving as the season moves along.

 

 

They've actually gone down. He was tearing the s*** out of the ball in May, then his luck normalized. He peaked at .397, now he's at .308.

 

What do you see in this guy that makes you think he isn't a product of his environment? His ISOP was actually higher last year. If you want ISOP's of around .150, we have that in Kevin Youkilis. He makes $16,000,000 fewer dollars than Todd Helton.

 

He's going to come to Fenway, and produce at the same level? Have you not seen what's happened with J.D. Drew and David Ortiz?

 

He's signed until he's 41, and he's going to be paid to perform like he did in 2001. I'd rather take a look at a free agent SP.

 

BTW in a few short days he has closed the gap on road OPS .855 Helton .856 Youk. The only reason Youk is still ahead is because the Sox are at home right now.

 

It's actually:

 

Helton - .839

Youkilis - .856

[ORS]

The idea is not to compare the replacements to the performance of the guys that they replaced after their decline. The idea is to bring in replacements that perform at the level of the guys replaced before their decline. Y2006-07 oukilis is not better than the 2003-04 Millar. Lowell is not better than the 2003-04 Mueller. 2003-04 Damon is better than 2007 Crisp. 2003 Nixon is better than 2007 Drew. 2003 Nomar is better offensively than 2005 Renteria' date=' 2006 Gonzo and 2007 Lugo. Let's leave names out of it. The FO has done a very bad job of replacing the 2003 offensive performance.[/quote']

Sorry, but that is a completely unrealistic standard to apply. The "1000 run" Yankee teams of the last two years, with all-stars from tip to toe, won't score as many runs as that team. Get real.

[CrespoBlows]

The idea is not to compare the replacements to the performance of the guys that they replaced after their decline. The idea is to bring in replacements that perform at the level of the guys replaced before their decline. Y2006-07 oukilis is not better than the 2003-04 Millar. Lowell is not better than the 2003-04 Mueller. 2003-04 Damon is better than 2007 Crisp. 2003 Nixon is better than 2007 Drew. 2003 Nomar is better offensively than 2005 Renteria' date=' 2006 Gonzo and 2007 Lugo. Let's leave names out of it. The FO has done a very bad job of replacing the 2003 offensive performance.[/quote']

 

You have some high expectations.

 

The 2003 Red Sox had a lot of players have a lot of career years. If Theo had replaced them, he would deserve a lifetime pass.

[a700hitter]

Do you know who the Yankees traded for Abreu? They traded their #1 pick in 2005.

 

Should we have traded Ellsbury? How about Buchholz? I assume they wouldn't have taken Hansen. How about our top pick in 2004? Dustin Pedroia.

 

Henry appears to suck, but as a demand on the deal the Phillies undoubtedly would have wanted young "talent" (i.e., first or second round talent) and to take 22 million off their books and put it on Boston's books. The logical players they would have asked for are Ellsbury, Pedroia, Buchholz, Lester, etc., Abreu wouldn't have accounted for their lack of pitching and, just like with the NYY, he wouldn't have made the Sox win the WS.

This is a fallacious argument. Did anyone consider the prospects traded by the Yankees to be top prospects? No. Being drafted #1 means very little after draft day unless it is backed up by performance. The Yankees with a depleted farm system were able to keep their top prospects and still get ABreu. BTW the prospects that we offered for Abreu were reportedly better than what they got from the Yanks. Our FO tried to quibble over $6 million. The Yankees didn't quibble. I resent that the FO blew that deal for a mere $6 million. We now know that they have the money. After all they spent $4million on Piniero.

[a700hitter]

Sorry' date=' but that is a completely unrealistic standard to apply. The "1000 run" Yankee teams of the last two years, with all-stars from tip to toe, won't score as many runs as that team. Get real.[/quote']It was real in 2003...wasn't it? and they scored almost the same # of runs in 2004... didn't they? ...and all these high producing guys have been replaced with banjo hitters with no pop. Name one guy other than Lowell (who ironically they did not want) that has been added that has any pop at all?I'd like just one name.

[CrespoBlows]

This is a fallacious argument. Did anyone consider the prospects traded by the Yankees to be top prospects? No. Being drafted #1 means very little after draft day unless it is backed up by performance. The Yankees with a depleted farm system were able to keep their top prospects and still get ABreu. BTW the prospects that we offered for Abreu were reportedly better than what they got from the Yanks. Our FO tried to quibble over $6 million. The Yankees didn't quibble. I resent that the FO blew that deal for a mere $6 million. We now know that they have the money. After all they spent $4million on Piniero.

 

I have a hard time buying that the Red Sox were even remotely close to an Abreu deal.

 

They had a Nixon in RF, with Wily Mo on the bench, at the time of the deal. The last place the Red Sox needed an upgrade was RF.

 

The Sox wanted to make the same Abreu/Lidle deal but had no takers for Trot Nixon. It was the only way they could have done it.

[Mr Crunchy]

mike lowell has some good #s but im in agreement for the most part

they move agon for offense

they dumo an allstar 2bman

they sign a question mark for huge coin the year b4 an outfield filled market opens up

they offer lowe nothing and give clement 20M

they then blow the competetion out of the water for dice k

with 19 different voices in this ownership group who want a return on their investment i figured after 04 they'd blow the entire thing up but that hasnt been the case at all

they pissed away huge coin in some mind boggling moves but theyve also spent to keep this team very competetive since they bought the club

 

i was very sceptical of this crew but i now admit i am pleasantly surprised about their commitment to win and how far they went to be competetive with the 800lb gorilla 190 miles southwest of here setting the pace

[a700hitter]

I have a hard time buying that the Red Sox were even remotely close to an Abreu deal.

 

They had a Nixon in RF, with Wily Mo on the bench, at the time of the deal. The last place the Red Sox needed an upgrade was RF.

The prospects were agreed upon. The money was not. That is what was being reported at the time. If they weren't interested in or negotiating to get Abreu, then why did they have to explain why they were unable to get him? Their attempt to get him was never in question.

[CrespoBlows]

The prospects were agreed upon. The money was not. That is what was being reported at the time.

 

Who were the prospects? Did they actually say that they had a deal with the Phillies?

 

If they weren't interested in or negotiating to get Abreu, then why did they have to explain why they were unable to get him? Their attempt to get him was never in question.

 

They asked the FO, about Dontrelle Willis, Barry Zito, Jon Lieber. They were never on those guys.

[example1]

This is a fallacious argument. Did anyone consider the prospects traded by the Yankees to be top prospects? No. Being drafted #1 means very little after draft day unless it is backed up by performance. The Yankees with a depleted farm system were able to keep their top prospects and still get ABreu. BTW the prospects that we offered for Abreu were reportedly better than what they got from the Yanks. Our FO tried to quibble over $6 million. The Yankees didn't quibble. I resent that the FO blew that deal for a mere $6 million. We now know that they have the money. After all they spent $4million on Piniero.

 

Like I said before, I agree that they didn't pull the trigger when they could have on Abreu. They have pulled the trigger big-time on players who they feel will be really valuable. My thinking is that Abreu isn't and never was really in their plans. I'm not arguing that Drew is a better player (though I think he may have more longevity), but that for whatever reason Abreu didn't excite them enough to offer something that couldn't be refused.

 

I hope they are willing to make an offer that can't be refused for Teixiera.

[Mr Crunchy]

the yanks ate more money than we were willing to eat.....thank god

 

abreau is the hr hitting softball player that lost his pop and is now a 19m per .265 singles hitter since he won the hr derby

his obp was enormous in burying the sox but now hes a burden and unmovable with that coin on his ass

[example1]

I have a hard time buying that the Red Sox were even remotely close to an Abreu deal.

 

They had a Nixon in RF, with Wily Mo on the bench, at the time of the deal. The last place the Red Sox needed an upgrade was RF.

 

Pretty much every deal I ever heard proposed involved Trot Nixon.

[ORS]

It was real in 2003...wasn't it? and they scored almost the same # of runs in 2004... didn't they? ...and all these high producing guys have been replaced with banjo hitters with no pop. Name one guy other than Lowell (who ironically they did not want) that has been added that has any pop at all?I'd like just one name.

And Abreu is the answer for pop? By statistical record, Drew is the guy with more pop. He's had a s***** year, but he's your answer

[a700hitter]

the yanks ate more money than we were willing to eat.....thank god

 

abreau is the hr hitting softball player that lost his pop and is now a 19m per .265 singles hitter since he won the hr derby

his obp was enormous in burying the sox but now hes a burden and unmovable with that coin on his ass

...and how movable is the high performing Vagina that currently occupies RF? At least Abreu only had a one-year commitment attached. Drew has 5 years for big, big money and he bring's with him a bad shoulder.

[example1]

...and how movable is the high performing Vagina that currently occupies RF? At least Abreu only had a one-year commitment attached. Drew has 5 years for big' date=' big money and he bring's with him a bad shoulder.[/quote']

 

That shoulder looked pretty good tonight when he drove three balls harder than I've seen from him in weeks.

[a700hitter]

And Abreu is the answer for pop? By statistical record' date=' Drew is the guy with more pop. He's had a s***** year, but he's your answer[/quote']If Drew is the only guy with pop that you can point to that the FO has brought in since '03-04, that answer speaks for itself. That is as resounding of a condemnation of the FO as I could have conjured up. We are past the half way point and Nancy Drew has 6 dingers.

[a700hitter]

That shoulder looked pretty good tonight when he drove three balls harder than I've seen from him in weeks.

Let's remember that we are fans of the same team. I want to see him succeed as much as you do...maybe more because I am older and the years are going by fast, but honestly, do you think this guy is having or will have the impact of a 5 year/$70 million player? are you relly seeing that in him. None of the Cardinal or Dodger fans that i know saw that in him, and I am not talking about the ******* Dodger blue fans that visit here.

[example1]

If Drew is the only guy with pop that you can point to that the FO has brought in since '03-04' date=' that answer speaks for itself. That is as resounding of a condemnation of the FO as I could have conjured up. We are past the half way point and Nancy Drew has 6 dingers.[/quote']

 

Mike Lowell has a better SLG than David Wright, Derrek Lee, Manny Ramirez, Hideki Matsui, Adrian Gonzalez and Derek Jeter. I'm pretty sure they acquired him. Youkilis's .876 OPS puts him firmly between Carlos Lee and Derek Jeter. Two spots behind Ramirez.

 

Those teams of 03 and 04 were magical teams offensively. You are a long time fan of the Sox, you know that was special. It won't be replaced in terms of everyone having a career year offensively at the same time. You can't predict that sort of thing. What you can do is put yourself in a good position to allow such things to happen. The formula is to get guys on base and hit the ball hard, work starters so they have to leave the game. The offensive philosophy hasn't changed, all the pieces haven't come together to create a 900+ run team. It has, however, created a team that is underachieving offensively and yet has played well enough to be DESERVEDLY almost 20 games over .500 with an 8 game lead. Their run differential seems to justify the record. We all know this team can do better offensively, and they are likely to do just that over time.

[a700hitter]

Mike Lowell has a better SLG than David Wright' date=' Derrek Lee, Manny Ramirez, Hideki Matsui, Adrian Gonzalez and Derek Jeter. I'm pretty sure they acquired him. Youkilis's .876 OPS puts him firmly between Carlos Lee and Derek Jeter. Two spots behind Ramirez.[/quote']In my post, I asked for one guy aside from Lowell (who ironically they didn't want)

 

Those teams of 03 and 04 were magical teams offensively. You are a long time fan of the Sox' date=' you know that was special. It won't be replaced in terms of everyone having a career year offensively at the same time. You can't predict that sort of thing. What you can do is put yourself in a good position to allow such things to happen. The formula is to get guys on base and hit the ball hard, work starters so they have to leave the game. The offensive philosophy hasn't changed, all the pieces haven't come together to create a 900+ run team. It has, however, created a team that is underachieving offensively and yet has played well enough to be DESERVEDLY almost 20 games over .500 with an 8 game lead. Their run differential seems to justify the record. We all know this team can do better offensively, and they are likely to do just that over time.[/quote']Except for Manny and Ortiz, all of those guys left and no one with pop other than Lowell has been added. In all the years that i have rooted for the Red Sox, I have seen several teams with offenses with more long ball pop distributed throughout the lineup. This years' team doesn't even come close to the late '60's and early 70's teams before Lynn and Rice. The Lynn and Rice teams blow this years' team away. i am not asking for the history making years of '03 and '04. This year's team falls short of many Red Sox teams that I have seen through the years.

[example1]

Let's remember that we are fans of the same team. I want to see him succeed as much as you do...maybe more because I am older and the years are going by fast' date=' but honestly, do you think this guy is having or will have the impact of a 5 year/$70 million player? are you relly seeing that in him. None of the Cardinal or Dodger fans that i know saw that in him, and I am not talking about the ******* Dodger blue fans that visit here.[/quote']

 

I hear ya brother. I do. But I do see a lot in Drew, to be honest with you. I've always liked him as a player. I don't know anything about his personality, but I think he is a very solid middle of the lineup guy when he's hitting well. Just think back to the beginning of the season when he was spraying the ball all over the place. He was an excellent addition at the time. I'm not sure if he's really "injury prone" or just a wuss. I haven't figured that out yet. I think that if he can stay healthy he will have a spot in this lineup. When he's hitting he's a slightly more powerful version of Kevin Youkilis, with better wheels. I think he is a fine #5 hitter if he's hitting the way he can.

 

Finally, I tend to judge whether players were up to the task based on how the team does. If this team wins 2 or 3 World Series in a row (just dreaming) and Drew played most of the games in the OF, scoring 80 runs, hitting .280 with a .375 OBP, I will probably think he was fine, based on the results. The reason I'm so wishy-washy about it is that I think you have a choice of either basing your expectations of a player on snapshot opinions (for instance, scouts overvaluing something from a particular game they attended; or a particular media report; or with how someone values themselves as an employee by wanting more money) or a long term track record. I am going to go with the track record every single time. Tony LaRussa, in the book Three Nights in August, comments that he thought Drew had tons and tons of talent, but his head wasn't in the right place. I think that if the Sox fans could actually get behind Drew he could find himself as a player and give him a place where he can take risks, sometimes incurring failure. It was that unending support of Mueller and Damon and Varitek from the fans that the FO hopes will boost Drew's play and focus.

 

I'm not sure if they have judged his personality correctly with Sox fans. He doesn't have that 'look' to him, but that is a superficial judgment that is too hasty for 90 games into his first season with us. Again, if he comes through a few times down the stretch he could become a mainstay. Fans--myself included--are fickle.

[a700hitter]

Before I turn in for the night, I'll be driving up with my son for the games tomorrow and Sunday. If any of my fellow posters will be at the games, I'd like to say hello and buy you a beer (if you are legal drinking age). Just drop me a PM if you will be at one of the games.

[a700hitter]

I hear ya brother. I do. But I do see a lot in Drew, to be honest with you. I've always liked him as a player. I don't know anything about his personality, but I think he is a very solid middle of the lineup guy when he's hitting well. Just think back to the beginning of the season when he was spraying the ball all over the place. He was an excellent addition at the time. I'm not sure if he's really "injury prone" or just a wuss. I haven't figured that out yet. I think that if he can stay healthy he will have a spot in this lineup. When he's hitting he's a slightly more powerful version of Kevin Youkilis, with better wheels. I think he is a fine #5 hitter if he's hitting the way he can.

 

Finally, I tend to judge whether players were up to the task based on how the team does. If this team wins 2 or 3 World Series in a row (just dreaming) and Drew played most of the games in the OF, scoring 80 runs, hitting .280 with a .375 OBP, I will probably think he was fine, based on the results. The reason I'm so wishy-washy about it is that I think you have a choice of either basing your expectations of a player on snapshot opinions (for instance, scouts overvaluing something from a particular game they attended; or a particular media report; or with how someone values themselves as an employee by wanting more money) or a long term track record. I am going to go with the track record every single time. Tony LaRussa, in the book Three Nights in August, comments that he thought Drew had tons and tons of talent, but his head wasn't in the right place. I think that if the Sox fans could actually get behind Drew he could find himself as a player and give him a place where he can take risks, sometimes incurring failure. It was that unending support of Mueller and Damon and Varitek from the fans that the FO hopes will boost Drew's play and focus.

 

I'm not sure if they have judged his personality correctly with Sox fans. He doesn't have that 'look' to him, but that is a superficial judgment that is too hasty for 90 games into his first season with us. Again, if he comes through a few times down the stretch he could become a mainstay. Fans--myself included--are fickle.

There's no denying his talent. The high talent level was quite evident to me during ST. He makes it look almost effortless, which may be part of his problem. When he is not going well, it looks like he is not trying. He needs to prove himself in some big spots. Right now, I am very disappointed in his lack of power production.

[example1]

In my post, I asked for one guy aside from Lowell (who ironically they didn't want)

 

Except for Manny and Ortiz, all of those guys left and no one with pop other than Lowell has been added. In all the years that i have rooted for the Red Sox, I have seen several teams with offenses with more long ball pop distributed throughout the lineup. This years' team doesn't even come close to the late '60's and early 70's teams before Lynn and Rice. The Lynn and Rice teams blow this years' team away. i am not asking for the history making years of '03 and '04. This year's team falls short of many Red Sox teams that I have seen through the years.

 

And yet their run differential says they are exactly where they should be, with a record right near the top of all of baseball. PLUS they have been under producing for the past two months to an ALARMING degree in terms of outcome. They are getting so many guys on, and getting extra base hits, and working counts. It just hasn't scored the way the statistics say they should.

 

EDIT: In other words: the stats say they should be scoring more runs based on how many runners they are getting on and their relatively decent SLG. Their expected wins is saying that they are winning the appropriate number of games for a team that has allowed and scored as many runs as they have. The first set of stats say the Sox--if they continue with their current OBP trends--should start scoring more runs very soon. The same is true of what was happening to the Yankees for the first 2.5 months of the season (except for a few gaps of success). If their pitching continues its relative success (enough to justify a .589 win percentage, or whatever) and they start scoring more runs then we're looking at 100 wins and the playoffs. I like this team in the playoffs. I think they are built very well. I can imagine any three players getting hot for the Sox during a series and helping to carry the offense. Pedroia, Crisp, drew, Ortiz, Ramirez, Lowell, Youkilis. When these guys are hot they rip. Varitek and Lugo are more than adequate "support players".

[ORS]

If Drew is the only guy with pop that you can point to that the FO has brought in since '03-04' date=' that answer speaks for itself. That is as resounding of a condemnation of the FO as I could have conjured up. We are past the half way point and Nancy Drew has 6 dingers.[/quote']

Here's the problem with your penchant to gladhand yourself when 20/20 hindsight benefits you, the statistical record supports that move. It's not working out, but that is the case. And, maybe, just maybe, like with Petey and Damon, we ought to give it more than 2/3 of season before we cast judgement on a 4+ year deal. You practically dislocated your shoulder patting yourself on the back for criticizing those moves, but now you have little leg to stand on regarding those decisions.

[example1]

Before I turn in for the night' date=' I'll be driving up with my son for the games tomorrow and Sunday. If any of my fellow posters will be at the games, I'd like to say hello and buy you a beer (if you are legal drinking age). Just drop me a PM if you will be at one of the games.[/quote']

 

Nice man. Have a great time. I hope it is a great time. My wife and I are taking my parents to a game against the Angels in a few weeks. I'm really looking forward to it; I'm jealous of those who get to go to games regularly.

[example1]

There's no denying his talent. The high talent level was quite evident to me during ST. He makes it look almost effortless' date=' which may be part of his problem. When he is not going well, it looks like he is not trying. He needs to prove himself in some big spots. Right now, I am very disappointed in his lack of power production.[/quote']

 

Everyone is. I bet Drew is. But despite his s***** AVG he's still managing to get on base at a more than survivable level. Some players who are considered good hitters struggle to get .330 OBP and above .300 when they are struggling. Drew is nowhere close to .300 OBP with his .360-.370 OBP. With a hot two week streak he could be close to .400 OBP. We've seen just about everyone else on this team start producing after a long period of struggling. Drew says he thinks he has been hitting the ball hard, and tonight he sure looked like he was ready to break out. I'm psyched to see how he does tomorrow.

[ksushi]

...and how movable is the high performing Vagina that currently occupies RF? At least Abreu only had a one-year commitment attached. Drew has 5 years for big' date=' big money and he bring's with him a bad shoulder.[/quote']

 

I think long run, even later into this season you will be happy about drew. But, I don't really disagree, just wanted to tell you that the Sox do have an out if his shoulder affects his play. They can scrap the deal if the shoulder acts up or something close to that. It very much affects the contract in a big bad way if your name is JD drew and your shoulder hurts.

[Youk Of The Nation]

If Coco keeps pounding out the triples at this pace hell overtake Granderson for the lead.