July 18th vs. Kansas City

[yankees228]

Man, I can't believe that I defending Sox fans here. You guys are really short-sighted here. The Yankees have a stretch in August where they play the Indiands, Orioles, Detroit, Angels, Detroit, and Boston in a three week stretch. Do you guys seriously think the Yankees will GAIN ground during that stretch?

 

I think the Yankees chances for the post-season are better than when I left, as I do not fear the Mariners of the Twins in the least. That means, out of the Tigers, Guardians, and Red Sox, we only have to beat one team to get in the playoffs. I doubt it will be the Red Sox though.

 

lol, you're actually kind of still arguing with them, but you're tell them to be more optimistic. Weird...

 

(Although I understand your point.)

[Gom]

In June, they seemed to win/lose at about the right pace, only one game off...this July, they are two games off.

 

If you look at the Yankees, they have the third best RS/RA differential in baseball at +83, behind the Tigers [+111] and the Red Sox [+92]. This stat, and I know my old friend ORS agrees, is the best indicator of future performance. So, don't be surprised at the Yankees if they make the playoffs. Although the Yankees have had a lot of bad luck in the beginning of the year, lets not forget that the Red Sox have not had the production expected from Ortiz, Manny, or Lugo. So look for both of those teams to close the gap on the Tigers in the RS/RA.

 

By the way, Egypt was HOT. I haven't been there in the summer in many years, and forgot how HOT it gets. Holy s***, it's like living in an oven.

[ORS]

In June, they seemed to win/lose at about the right pace, only one game off...this July, they are two games off.

 

If you look at the Yankees, they have the third best RS/RA differential in baseball at +83, behind the Tigers [+111] and the Red Sox [+92]. This stat, and I know my old friend ORS agrees, is the best indicator of future performance. So, don't be surprised at the Yankees if they make the playoffs. Although the Yankees have had a lot of bad luck in the beginning of the year, lets not forget that the Red Sox have not had the production expected from Ortiz, Manny, or Lugo. So look for both of those teams to close the gap on the Tigers in the RS/RA.

It's not just the RS/RA that I think bodes well, it's the OPS and OPSA. In June, despite performing significantly better than the opposition at the plate, it resulted in the same amount of runs, and that got compounded by them not hitting their pyth for that month. In July it's even worse. They destroying the comp in terms of performance, which is realized in the RS/RA, but they are still dogging their pyth.

 

But, yes, you are right. The pyth is what matters looking forward. And since the components of pyth are correlated to rate performance, I'm not worried.

[Gom]

Compared to us, your pyth is awesome. According to the numbers, we should be one game back of you guys, instead of seven.

[ORS]

Not 3rd order, which BP does. They run the adjusted EqRS and EqRA based on rate performance, and by that we should be 6 ahead. You are only 6 below your EqR performance, we are 46 runs lower than where we should be for RS.

[Gom]

I'll take your word. I only go the first order, it makes life simpler, lol.

 

Plus, I think there is some serious mathemetical error in the third order. Doesn't make sense that the team in all of baseball that has the biggest RS/RA difference is 4 games over 500 at this point.

[ORS]

Here's the breakdown:

 

1st Order - Pyth based on actual RS/RA

2nd Order - Pyth based on EquivalentRS/EquivalentRA - component performance

3rd Order - Pyth based on AdjustedEqRS/AdjustedEqRA - park/opposition effects considered

 

The Yankees are closer to their Equivalents than the Sox, thus they are closer in 1st Order. If you like the predictive value of 1st Order, then you should like the other two also because they give a more accurate prediction.

[Gom]

To be honest, I never got that deep into it. I'll take your word for it though.

[Gom]

Deleted post.

[riverside sluggers]

"SchillingouttheKs'

 

I just wanted to re-iterate last night. Ok teh plan was not to meet up with friends, but moreso a date, anyways long story short the bitch called me up and said she's not up to going out like ever. I was just in a pissed off mood, didnt want to talk to anyone (including posting on here). So I just had the game in teh background, while i watched die hard 4 online

 

Whole-heartedly sorry for any confusion that was made

 

BTW good read from teh Boston Herald that apparently last night's start might be the end of the tavarez experiment. Naturally Lester is the top candidate (he pitched and won last night as well) if the Sox decide to yank Tavarez now

http://redsox.bostonherald.com/redSox/view.bg?articleid=1012193

[redsoxrules]

lester isnt the solution either , its time to stop experimenting and make a trade for someone who's allready proven

[riverside sluggers]

I do agree with that, Lester isnt at full strength yet and methinks they need a veteran pitcher (playoff experience would be a plus)

 

Hopefully this trading deadline is much better than last years version