Papelbon is the closer according ESPN

[BSN07]

Anyone think this could be a whole smoke and mirror act? Just for conversation sake what if we where trying to get Cordero or some other closer, and the other teams GM was trying to take advantage of our FO because they knew we were out of options and getting desperate. Papelbon coming out and saying he wants to be the closer gives Theo the ultimate leverage. He cans ay now well I wouldn't mind getting Cordero but I'm not willing to pay your ransom for him since I have Paps as a closer...

 

I fully believe Paps wants to be the closer and he will but I just bring up this part of the argument for conversation and conspiracy theorist alike...

[inkman]

I wanted him to start but this really makes me feel good about our bullpen.

 

 

http://www.derby.org/sounds/movies/chewie/chewie02.wav Me too.

[jacksonianmarch]

it could be. But that will end very soon if you see Paps reverting to one inning stints in the last week of ST. Right now, he is nearly stretched out. If they shorten him, then this is no ploy.

[jacksonianmarch]

Ok' date=' so Trevor Hoffman is a better closer than Mariano Rivera.[/quote']

 

last yr, strictly in the role of closer, he was. Hoffman was dynamite last yr.

[jacksonianmarch]

I don't think it is analogous. The hamstring problem is a muscular problem. Short sprints would be more apt to tear the muscle if it is not probably warmed up or if there is cramping due to fatigue or dehydration. The distance runner does not have the violent muscle movement and even if he starts his exercise with cramping, he is more likely to warm up the muscle and feel better during his exercise than to injure himself. The shoulder is a joint with tendons, ligaments and muscle. I would imagine the theory is that working several times a week fatigues he muscles around the joint without adequate opportunity to recover. The fatigued muscles cannot hold the joint together as well as they would like and that can strees the ligaments etc.

 

Edit: That being said, I think it is not a bad move to put him back in the closer's role. We went from having a strong rotation to having a big question mark and 2 forty year olds. The bullpen is now fairly strong, but that could break down from overwork.

 

pretty good 700. The shoulder is made up of 4 tendons and then the glenohumeral ligaments as well as the cartilagenous labrum. The glenohumeral ligaments hold the shoulder in place while the rotator cuff ( 4 tendons) lend support. The issue with Papelbon, though, is said to be laxity of the ligaments and NOT the tendons. I am not an orthopedic surgeon, so this is the farthest I can go with it. Then again, we are relying on the media relaying what is supposed to be accurate info. 3/4 of the time they goof it up.

[ORS]

last yr' date=' strictly in the role of closer, he was. Hoffman was dynamite last yr.[/quote']

Career SV%

 

Hoffman - 89.6%

Rivera - 88.2%

 

Care to rethink your definition of what makes a great closer?

[jacksonianmarch]

as we all know, a significant portion of Mariano's legacy is built on the postseason.

 

73G 0.80ERA 8-1 34Sv 112.2IP 70H 15BB 80K

 

Hoffman

12G 3.46ERA 1-2 4Sv 13IP 11H 5BB 14K

[ImissPedro]

Is there any indication if Paps would return to the role as a starter this year? If not this year, is this new found passion that he has that he loses sleep over going to make him a closer indefinatly? It would seem that he is worth more as a potential middle rotation starter than just an outstanding closer.

[jacksonianmarch]

if you would like to cut open his shoulder, insert a cherry bomb and watch it explode, you can return him to starting midway through.

[ORS]

as we all know, a significant portion of Mariano's legacy is built on the postseason.

 

73G 0.80ERA 8-1 34Sv 112.2IP 70H 15BB 80K

 

Hoffman

12G 3.46ERA 1-2 4Sv 13IP 11H 5BB 14K

Why are you throwing all those other stats in there? SV% is all that matters according to you. Even if you throw in the postseason SV% in, Hoffman's is still higher.

 

Two choices, Jacko. Hoffman is better or your standard sucks. I think it's the latter. I'm just trying to get you to admit it.

[jacksonianmarch]

Hoffman is 4 for 6 in career postseason save chances. Mo is well above that.

[ORS]

Hoffman is 4 for 6 in career postseason save chances. Mo is well above that.

So we throw out all the regular season ones? When I said include the postseason, that meant make it cumulative.

 

You've painted yourself into a corner, I just wonder if your respect for Mo can outweigh your pride?

[He Hate Me]

two things.

 

1.

The Red Sox determined that closing no longer posed the same medical risk it did when they announced last fall that Jonathan Papelbon would be a starter, at about the time Papelbon decided he could no longer suppress his desire to take the ball in the ninth inning rather than in the first. Three nights ago, Papelbon made his feelings known first to team captain Jason Varitek, then to manager Terry Francona. -- Boston Globe

 

I'm confused, I coulda sworn Papelbon expressed a great desire to be a starter many times in the media before. Am I remembering things wrong?

 

 

2. I think Hoffman does have better numbers in the regular season, but at the end of the day, I don't think there's anyone in the league who would rather face Mo than Hoffman. Hoffman is one of the best of all time, Mo is just better.

[ORS]

I agree HHM. Rivera is the best closer, in the modern day definition, of all time. What I find silly is the notion that someone isn't the best because of their SV%. That stat is a function of situation more than anything. The more relevant rates are ERA, WHIP, OPS Against, K/9, H/9, etc. These tell us more about how the pitcher is pitching than SV% does. It is possible for a closer to perform at 100% of save opportunities while still having a 18.00 ERA. It would probably never happen, but it's possible. That possibility renders SV% a bit worthless in my book.

[BSN07]

Ya he stated that he wanted to be a starter. He was just being a good employee and not being a pain in the ass distraction like alot of players might have been in this situation. Then when he decided he rather stay in the closers role, he handled it very professionaly by going to the Captain of the team and then to the manager and stated behind closed doors what he wanted. He did not go to the media like alot of guys do and say I want to be the Closer and not a starter and cause a bunch of trouble. Even if there intentions where to have him be in the starting rotaion, I have to believe if Papelbon comes to you and says I want the ball in the 9th and you don't have any better options and you realize you will have to do this with guidelines( health concerns), then you have to let him do it.

[BSN07]

Besides after watching him pitch this spring, it is obvious he still thinks and pitches like a Closer. The FO or whoever could have noticed this to and a doctor might have come running up to them and said wait a sec guys we might have to rethink this one! I mean the way he pitches, and trying to do that for 6+ innings, I would have been suprised if he didn't have arm issues by the all star break. Like somene else put it "He's too fuking intense to be a starter!"

[mosox]

I realize I come in late on this, but really, Paps as the closer is the only sane choice. I saw this coming all winter and wrote about it here. It never made sense to me to build a playoff team and then send one of the most effective closers in the league into the starting rotation. The key to all this is Tito. He cannot have Paps pitch two inning saves. I thought this was one of the main reasons Paps got hurt last season. I glad all this nonsense about trading for a closer or using Joel Pineiro is now over. Now the team is set and it's time to win the diviison.

[He Hate Me]

I agree HHM. Rivera is the best closer' date=' in the modern day definition, of all time. What I find silly is the notion that someone isn't the best because of their SV%. That stat is a function of situation more than anything. The more relevant rates are ERA, WHIP, OPS Against, K/9, H/9, etc. These tell us more about how the pitcher is pitching than SV% does. It is possible for a closer to perform at 100% of save opportunities while still having a 18.00 ERA. It would probably never happen, but it's possible. That possibility renders SV% a bit worthless in my book.[/quote']

 

In all honesty, I think the save stat itself is completely overrated. How many times have we seen closers come in the ninth with a 3 run lead, give up 2 runs and still earn the save? I'm not tryign to knock closers, but closer is probaly the one spot that you can count on for more turnover than most other positions every year. While injury may play a role, to me, it speaks more of the quality of pitchers in those designated closer roles than anything else.

 

The guys who pitch the 7th and 8th are probably just as valuable.

[He Hate Me]

Excellent article by Ken Rosenthal.

 

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/6600124

 

Going back to 'pen a gamble for Papelbon

 

Here's the question: If the Red Sox had acquired a quality closer, would Jonathan Papelbon have been losing sleep at night, itching to return to his former role?

 

Doubtful.

 

Papelbon, 26, says otherwise. Maybe his return to closing will work out for the best. The Sox are a more complete, dangerous team this way, that's for sure.

 

As long as Papelbon stays healthy.

 

As long as manager Terry Francona uses him correctly.

 

As long as the Red Sox stick to a careful long-term plan.

 

Proper warmups. One-inning saves. Limited back-to-back appearances. Even more limited instances when Papelbon warms up without entering a game.

 

"They have to use him in the same way that they would consistently use a starter," Reds medical director Tim Kremchek, who examined Papelbon last season and acts as one of his consultants, told FOXSports.com Thursday night.

 

Kremchek, entering his 11th season with the Reds, said that because the Red Sox are a perennial contender, they are in position to take the right approach with Papelbon.

 

"I'm very much for this," he said.

 

Still, the Sox need to proceed with the utmost caution.

 

All winter, club officials insisted that they were making Papelbon a starter to ensure the long-term health of his right shoulder.

 

General manager Theo Epstein, in a conference call with the team's beat reporters Thursday, stated again that, "The best decisions are made with a long view."

 

This decision, however, is the opposite of the last one.

 

Maybe Papelbon's shoulder is now sound enough for him to close without undue physical risk. The Sox's doctors certainly think so, based on the results of his rehabilitation program. Papelbon's shoulder, Epstein said, is one of the healthiest in camp.

 

Yet, the Sox's initial concerns were so acute, they never asked Papelbon to return to closing even though they were in dire need of a ninth-inning stopper.

 

Papelbon initiated the move.

 

Papelbon, who might have grown bored with the starter's routine in spring training.

 

Papelbon, who might have felt subtle pressure from teammates and club officials to reclaim his old role.

 

Papelbon, who knew as well as anyone that the Sox's bullpen was in chaos.

 

You want to believe Papelbon when he says that his decision had nothing to do with setup man Mike Timlin's strained side muscle or the team's increasingly glaring hole in the bullpen.

 

He's a sincere, refreshing kid. He wants to do what is best for the team.

 

The danger is that he's too eager to please.

 

Only three weeks ago, Papelbon told the Boston Globe's Bob Ryan, "I just feel I'm better as a starter. The reason why this team drafted me in '04 was to be a starter."

 

On Thursday, he told reporters, "I broke into the league as a closer. They drafted me as a closer."

 

He's entitled to change his mind. But if the Red Sox won't protect Papelbon from himself, they must at least protect him from their temptation to use him whenever the need arises.

 

"His long-term health can be managed out of the rotation with a routine and it can be managed out of the bullpen with a thoughtful program," Epstein said.

 

"We have a program based on three factors: Strength and fatigue monitoring, criteria-based off-days, proper strength and conditioning. Our medical staff is confident this can be managed in a bullpen role given the condition of his shoulder."

 

Fair enough, but the Sox already have shifted course once; who's to say they won't do it again if Papelbon tells them he's good to pitch three days in a row in the heat of a pennant race?

 

Epstein grasps the potential risk — he initially responded to Papelbon by telling him to go home and forget about the 2007 Red Sox, that a team's short-term needs change every month.

 

Francona, too, will want to do the right thing. But let's see what happens in September if the Red Sox's setup men are gasping in the eighth inning of a pivotal series against the Yankees.

 

This goes beyond the need for good intentions. The Red Sox owe it to Papelbon to be as cautious as possible.

 

Few closers achieve longevity or make big money; Papelbon is making a professional and financial sacrifice by returning to the bullpen. Royals right-hander Gil Meche, a mediocre starter, boasts a higher average salary than the Yankees' Mariano Rivera, perhaps the greatest closer in history.

 

Kremchek, though, says Papelbon is in the right situation to succeed.

 

"Consistently good teams are going to be able to protect their closers for many years," he said. "It's the teams that are not competitive that are strapped for pitching, forced and pressured to take their best pitchers and use them in different ways. That's when you run into arm trouble and breakdowns.

 

"A young man who understands how to be a closer, how to prepare to be a closer, can have even better longevity than a starter. A guy who is mentally tough at a young age can pitch for a long time in that role."

 

If handled with care.

[Fried Neckbones]

In all honesty, I think the save stat itself is completely overrated. How many times have we seen closers come in the ninth with a 3 run lead, give up 2 runs and still earn the save? I'm not tryign to knock closers, but closer is probaly the one spot that you can count on for more turnover than most other positions every year. While injury may play a role, to me, it speaks more of the quality of pitchers in those designated closer roles than anything else.

 

The guys who pitch the 7th and 8th are probably just as valuable.

 

I totally agree with you HHM. The way that teams are going now, in bullpens that is, seems to be looking for that "bullpen ace" rather than a traditional closer. The Joel Zumayas of the world. Let that guy come in when the pressure is highest, be it the 6th, 7th, 8th, whatever. The key to that, though, is that you still need a guy who can come in and get those final three outs. Todd Jones was perfect at that. He would give up a couple of hits, didn't strike anybody out, but he got through the 9th. It's a hybrid, sort of, of bullpen by committee and the traditional model.

[ORS]

I totally agree with you HHM. The way that teams are going now' date=' in bullpens that is, seems to be looking for that "bullpen ace" rather than a traditional closer. The Joel Zumayas of the world. Let that guy come in when the pressure is highest, be it the 6th, 7th, 8th, whatever. The key to that, though, is that you still need a guy who can come in and get those final three outs. Todd Jones was perfect at that. He would give up a couple of hits, didn't strike anybody out, but he got through the 9th. It's a hybrid, sort of, of bullpen by committee and the traditional model.[/quote']

The bullpen by committee was inappropriately named. It started out as an attempt to model the Bill James bull-pen usage model. This is where the usage of relievers is determined by leverage. The bigger the fire, the better the reliever that is brought in. Of course, Grady Gump didn't quite get it and reverted to traditional roles. Luckily for the Sox, the BP figured itself out by mid-season.

 

The point about the Tigers, though, is an excellent one. Zumaya was the fireman, Rodney was fireman #2, and Jones mopped up the rest after the fire was out. It was a perfectly Jamesian bull-pen usage. I'm not sure how much of it was intentional, because I'd bet money Zumaya wasn't the "closer" because Leyland is an old school kind of guy, but it worked.

[rician blast]

...but can you seriously name one good reason why he'd go to Boston OR New York. (That's for Yankee fans)

 

I can name a reason for him to go to NY versus Boston...his ego and his desired legacy.

 

If he goes to Boston and they don't make the playoffs, it was a waste to come back. Even worse, if they make the playoffs and he falters, well it's the same old Roger in Boston when it comes to big games...a blister here, an implosion there and the "legend" just can't get it done in Boston. While it makes for a nice story, that story is only nice if he excels.

 

Going to the NYY is a much easier way to give himself a chance at another WS title AND not risk his bloated ego, his self-importance, etc. He's already won the WS with them...no pressure there. Plus he knows that they'll do what it takes, or at least try, to improve the team somewhat regardless of cost.

 

- Going to Boston is risky to a guy with his need for continuos adulation.

- Staying in Houston is less risky because Houston could simply suck this year, thus no pressure on Rog. But does he want to ride into the sunset on a team with no real chance?

- Going to the NYY, IMO, gives him the best opportunity to (1) win (2) be adored and (3) not risk his legacy.

 

I say he winds up in pinstripes if he plays at all. Just my hunch.

[MANNYHOF24]

I can name a reason for him to go to NY versus Boston...his ego and his desired legacy.

 

If he goes to Boston and they don't make the playoffs, it was a waste to come back. Even worse, if they make the playoffs and he falters, well it's the same old Roger in Boston when it comes to big games...a blister here, an implosion there and the "legend" just can't get it done in Boston. While it makes for a nice story, that story is only nice if he excels.

 

Going to the NYY is a much easier way to give himself a chance at another WS title AND not risk his bloated ego, his self-importance, etc. He's already won the WS with them...no pressure there. Plus he knows that they'll do what it takes, or at least try, to improve the team somewhat regardless of cost.

 

- Going to Boston is risky to a guy with his need for continuos adulation.

- Staying in Houston is less risky because Houston could simply suck this year, thus no pressure on Rog. But does he want to ride into the sunset on a team with no real chance?

- Going to the NYY, IMO, gives him the best opportunity to (1) win (2) be adored and (3) not risk his legacy.

 

I say he winds up in pinstripes if he plays at all. Just my hunch.

 

If Clemens goes to the Red Sox then they have a better shot and going to the playoffs then the Yankees do. No one could match up with a rotation that consisted of Schilling, Beckett, Matsuzaka, Wake and Clemens. I'm going to play devils advocate for a second here and say, what if Clemens comes back here and wins 3-4 postseason games enroute to a W.S. title? I think that would greatly help how he is remembered in Boston, and I think he is probably bothered by the fact that he never one the big one with the Red Sox. Also he is 8 wins away from 200 as a red sox, and just 1 win away from being the All time leader in wins. There are plenty of reasons for Roger to finish his career here.

[jacksonianmarch]

If Clemens goes to the Red Sox then they have a better shot and going to the playoffs then the Yankees do. No one could match up with a rotation that consisted of Schilling' date=' Beckett, Matsuzaka, Wake and Clemens. I'm going to play devils advocate for a second here and say, what if Clemens comes back here and wins 3-4 postseason games enroute to a W.S. title? I think that would greatly help how he is remembered in Boston, and I think he is probably bothered by the fact that he never one the big one with the Red Sox. Also he is 8 wins away from 200 as a red sox, and just 1 win away from being the All time leader in wins. There are plenty of reasons for Roger to finish his career here.[/quote']

 

I still wont buy that. Manny, think about it. He wants wins. You put Roger on the red sox and you have a suspect MR and a solid closer. In Ny you have a solid middle relief and a solid closer. Go along with better offense in NY (potentially a 1K run offense) and Roger may win 1-2 more games.

 

And rician is spot on. Roger's legacy in boston has enough dust on it for fans to forget his failures. If Roger comes back, he has a chance to bring it back to the forefront.

[riverside sluggers]

Excellent article by Ken Rosenthal.

 

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/6600124

 

Well yea its an excellent article for Yankee fans to read, which Ken Rosenthal is. This wont be Rosenthal's last article of how the Sox could falter in different areas

[jacksonianmarch]

it isnt about faltering. rosenthal is right. I have said it before. When the rubber hits the road and when the rest of the sox pen is sucking wind, who comes in to save the 3rd game of a series against the yankees late in the season? My guess, Paps. regardless of how many games in a row or how many times he warmed up, etc. Paps will be the guy called upon a lot this yr, and dont think Tito will be reluctant to use him. If the sox suck this yr, Tito is likely out, and I think Francona will care more about his status than the arm of a kid.

[ksushi]

This isn't a decision made with only 2007 in mind. Anyone who has any idea what Theo is about would know that he is absolutely not going to budge and sacrifice long term success for the short term. If they are moving Papelbon back to closer, its because they are confident his subluxation was a one-time thing and isn't going to effect him long term. That is the only way this move happens.

[riverside sluggers]

Jacko, you ridiculed us all this winter, saying the Sox wont win much games without a pure closer? They have brought back their all-star closer, but now its being layed on thick about the middle relief. With the way youre talking Im very surprised you are expecting them to have a good season

[SuperManny]

I still wont buy that. Manny, think about it. He wants wins. You put Roger on the red sox and you have a suspect MR and a solid closer. In Ny you have a solid middle relief and a solid closer. Go along with better offense in NY (potentially a 1K run offense) and Roger may win 1-2 more games.

 

And rician is spot on. Roger's legacy in boston has enough dust on it for fans to forget his failures. If Roger comes back, he has a chance to bring it back to the forefront.

 

1 k offense? Honestly no chance at 1000 runs. Everyone is a year older and the only young guy on the team is Cano. I have no clue where Clemens would go and really no one does besides him. Given Clemens ego though I seriously doubt that the fear of failure is what drives his decision.

[a700hitter]

I believe Mr. Clemens has a front office job waiting for him as soon as he hangs up his cleets, and you and I both know that, that job is not in Boston or New York.

 

He's a freaking legend in Houston, he's probably as revered as Nolan Ryan. Plus, throw in the fact that he's going to get the same $20 million (pro-rated) that either Boston or New York is going to offer, and his home is 20 miles away from his work. Why would he turn that job down?

It is a long term contract, but not for a FO job. Clemens has no interest in a 9 to 5 job. It's probably more in the nature of public appearances and visiting instructor. He could most certainly balance that with a personal appearances contract with the Red Sox. These are not 5 day a week jobs. They require maybe 25 personal appearances for the entire calendar year. They get paid thousands for hobnobbing with fans, sponsors etc. It's well paid lucrative work, and Clemens would be a fool not to take advantage of it with the Red Sox as well as Houston.

OK' date=' I'm probably guilty of not having a good point on the Papelbon issue, but can you seriously name one good reason why he'd go to Boston OR New York. (That's for Yankee fans)[/quote']I agree that if the teams bid comparable dollars that Raajaaah sticks with Houston. I think Houston is going to bomb this season, so I don't see them in the sweepstakes.