How good is Matsuzaka going to be?

[jacksonianmarch]

So basically, what you are saying is that you expect this guy to be as good as Halladay.

 

Damn...as fans of the other side, were we this bad every time we signed a free agent? I'm afraid of the answer.

 

I think we may have when we acquired Randy. Then again, it was Randy Johnson coming off one of his best career seasons.

[ANiMAL]

anything over 15 wins and 4.00 ERA and i will be suprised

i expect him to have a "beckett" transition season this year, but to dominate years after

[TGov]

it would be hilarious if Dice-K pitches crazy good like 21-3 with a 2.43 ERA or some s*** like that... not to say he will but Ill just laugh at u guys if he does, that would be great...

[Jeff04]

anything over 15 wins and 4.00 ERA and i will be suprised

i expect him to have a "beckett" transition season this year, but to dominate years after

 

I don't see him having as tough of time as Beckett did this year and i wouldn't be surprised to see if D-Mats finishes up with 15-16 wins and a 3.5-4 ERA. I think that right out of the gate, he will win the majority of his starts simpily because no one has really seen him before. I expect a good season this year, with him getting more and more domiant as he gets used to the league and gets some experience under his belt.

[HeadOfSoxNation]

anything over 15 wins and 4.00 ERA and i will be suprised

i expect him to have a "beckett" transition season this year, but to dominate years after

 

I couldn't disagree with you more...I think if there's any kind of transition period, it will be for the hitters and his most dominant years will be his early ones.

 

Should be fun to see what happens!

[redsoxrules]

il go with 18-6 3.25 ERA ,

 

his first year will be good because the hitters wont be use to him , it wouldn't surprise me one bit if his ERA is below 3 in his first year

[BoSox21]

15-8, 3.80 ERA seems about right to me. an ERA in the low 3s is pretty damn tough in AL ball

[redsoxrules]

if wang can get an era of 3.6 ( wich was a fluke ) a low 3 for DK is possible

[castigs850]

well if i was kruck i would say 30 wins!!! but im not so im thinking 15-19 wins with an era of 3.33-3.73

[adam123]

i think dice -k can have a great year anyone remember nomos first year .

20-6 sub 3 era ... hopefully

[ANiMAL]

I couldn't disagree with you more...I think if there's any kind of transition period, it will be for the hitters and his most dominant years will be his early ones.

 

Should be fun to see what happens!

 

how could there be much of a transtion for hitters?

 

barely anybody saw beckett in the AL and he struggled.

 

dicek has gotta tranfser into the AL and that is much tougher for pitchers than in Japan.

he hasnt really proved much, so i dont know why everyone is jumping the gun to say he'll be dominent. dicek is still sketchy in my book.

not saying that im right, i hope im wrong, but i think that he will struggle.

[SuperManny]

how could there be much of a transtion for hitters?

 

barely anybody saw beckett in the AL and he struggled.

 

dicek has gotta tranfser into the AL and that is much tougher for pitchers than in Japan.

he hasnt really proved much, so i dont know why everyone is jumping the gun to say he'll be dominent. dicek is still sketchy in my book.

not saying that im right, i hope im wrong, but i think that he will struggle.

 

He pitched against the MLB all star team and did just fine. He also was the MVP of the international tournament last year when he pitched against the top players from each country. He's got the stuff to be a top 15 pitcher in baseball from day 1. He will obviously have games where he struggles but he will also have great games and should be a lock for around 18 wins with the Sox offense.

[jacksonianmarch]

that all star team was playing out of season.

[SuperManny]

that all star team was playing out of season.

 

I believe the All Star team goes over to Japan right after the world series. You can say its out of season but he still faced MLB all stars which is more than most pitchers ever face. God knows every Yankee fan sees Hughes as being dominant from day 1 and he has never even faced close to the competition that Matsuzaka has faced. (Not saying you in particular but more of a general observation, I have no idea how you think of Hughes)

 

We won't know until the season is underway but IMO Matsuzaka is going to have a really good season.

[example1]

that all star team was playing out of season.

 

Yes, it was also in a country that MLB doesn't usually play in. I think that's such a BS excuse. As for the WBC Japanese and American baseball really are only 2 weeks apart from one another (or so). It was off season for everyone.

 

If Americans are so much better than the rest of the world then one would expect an off-season Jake Peavy or Dontrelle Willis to be considerably better than some no-name pitcher (also in his offseason) from Japan.

 

If the Yankees had this guy I guarantee that you would be talking about him as next years #2 or #3 starter and about him battling Hughes for the #1 spot in a few years. Since he's not on the Yankees he could be MLB average, or he could be bad, but anyone who is optimistic needs to be argued with.

[jacksonianmarch]

Where have I said he is MLB average? I predicted an era in the 3.8-4.3 range. A 3.8ERA is much better than average. AND, I said he will improve over the yrs as he learns the league rather than the reverse because he isnt a novelty one trick pony like many of the japanese import pitchers are. He is a cerebral pitcher with multiple plus pitches. But he doesnt, contrary to popular belief, feature anything that isnt in a typical MLB arsenal. Once he learns the league, he'll be real tough.

[ORS]

It's the other way around Jacko, and you know it. He doesn't need to learn the league. The scouting is there. The holes in hitters' swings are known. He just needs to hit his spots. The hitters need to learn him. That was why Nomo was so good his first year. He had no pitch the league had never seen before. They just hadn't seen it from him. It's common knowledge that in a first-time matchup, where advance scouting has been done, that the advantage lies with the pitcher due to the action/reaction relationship. Stop trying to redefine conventional wisdom just because the guy in question isn't wearing pinstripes.

[ImissPedro]

It's the other way around Jacko' date=' and you know it. He doesn't need to learn the league. The scouting is there. The holes in hitters' swings are known. He just needs to hit his spots. The hitters need to learn him. That was why Nomo was so good his first year. He had no pitch the league had never seen before. They just hadn't seen it from him. It's common knowledge that in a first-time matchup, where advance scouting has been done, that the advantage lies with the pitcher due to the action/reaction relationship. Stop trying to redefine conventional wisdom just because the guy in question isn't wearing pinstripes.[/quote']

 

sounds more like a situation where the league needs to learn him

[Cityofchampions33]

It's the other way around Jacko' date=' and you know it. He doesn't need to learn the league. The scouting is there. The holes in hitters' swings are known. He just needs to hit his spots. The hitters need to learn him. That was why Nomo was so good his first year. He had no pitch the league had never seen before. They just hadn't seen it from him. It's common knowledge that in a first-time matchup, where advance scouting has been done, that the advantage lies with the pitcher due to the action/reaction relationship. Stop trying to redefine conventional wisdom just because the guy in question isn't wearing pinstripes.[/quote']

 

Agreed. That's why I expect a great start to the season for him. If anything there might be a slight drop-off towards the season's end when pitchers see more of him, but it's not likely (5/6 plus pitches will factor in here). In Hideo's rookie season, he was 1.27 under the league average ERA-wise. Last year the league average was 4.61 for the AL. So it's not hard to imagine Matsuzakak putting up at least a 3.42 ERA if not better in his rookie season. Either way, good start or bad, the second half of the season will be telling to see how good he really is, because you can't use the adjusting or gaining knowledge of hitters excuse.

[jacksonianmarch]

It's the other way around Jacko' date=' and you know it. He doesn't need to learn the league. The scouting is there. The holes in hitters' swings are known. He just needs to hit his spots. The hitters need to learn him. That was why Nomo was so good his first year. He had no pitch the league had never seen before. They just hadn't seen it from him. It's common knowledge that in a first-time matchup, where advance scouting has been done, that the advantage lies with the pitcher due to the action/reaction relationship. Stop trying to redefine conventional wisdom just because the guy in question isn't wearing pinstripes.[/quote']

 

see, I disagree with this sentiment. Nomo had a splitter that was so unbelievably good that you couldnt possibly hit it. And he had a windup that was so strange that it took multiple times to get accustomed to it. Once the hitters learned he was a one trick pony and laid off the splitter and waited on his delivery, he became decidedly average.

 

Matsuzaka has 4 plus pitches. None of them are novelty. None of them are unspeakably amazing to the point of being completely unhittable. Nothing novel that will shake up the game. He has a rather straightforward delivery, not much deception. His single pitches are nothing spectacular in and of themselves, but put them together and they will be nice. Scouting reports are all well and good, but personal experience is VERY important for the cerebral pitchers, and Matsu is a cerebral pitcher. He has the stuff to K you, but he has learned over time that getting the groundout on an 0-1 count is a whole lot less stressful than going 5 or 6 pitches to get the K. This comes with advanced knowledge of your own repertoire and of how the hitters react to you. This is why I think his K rate will be pretty high early on, but he will be worn down quickly by patient teams and will be a bit less effective in yr one. Once he learns the league, he'll pitch to contact a little more and maximize his innings and eventually his effectiveness. I am not bullshitting here. Look at his japanese stats. His K rates have gone down for every yr that his ERA has dropped too. He's learned how to pitch by mastering his own repertoire and learning the league. Now a new league, with better competition will cause him to learn as he goes.

 

I am not saying he is going to bomb out or suck or anything. Actually, I am quite the contrary. But I think this kind of pitcher will react more like a rookie coming up with lights out stuff rather than a novelty pitcher who will be figured out over time. Granted, he wont be any old rookie, but a veteran going through the rookie growing pains of learning a superior league to anything he has experienced over a full season.

[Cityofchampions33]

see, I disagree with this sentiment. Nomo had a splitter that was so unbelievably good that you couldnt possibly hit it. And he had a windup that was so strange that it took multiple times to get accustomed to it. Once the hitters learned he was a one trick pony and laid off the splitter and waited on his delivery, he became decidedly average.

 

Matsuzaka has 4 plus pitches. None of them are novelty. None of them are unspeakably amazing to the point of being completely unhittable. Nothing novel that will shake up the game. He has a rather straightforward delivery, not much deception. His single pitches are nothing spectacular in and of themselves, but put them together and they will be nice. Scouting reports are all well and good, but personal experience is VERY important for the cerebral pitchers, and Matsu is a cerebral pitcher. He has the stuff to K you, but he has learned over time that getting the groundout on an 0-1 count is a whole lot less stressful than going 5 or 6 pitches to get the K. This comes with advanced knowledge of your own repertoire and of how the hitters react to you. This is why I think his K rate will be pretty high early on, but he will be worn down quickly by patient teams and will be a bit less effective in yr one. Once he learns the league, he'll pitch to contact a little more and maximize his innings and eventually his effectiveness. I am not bullshitting here. Look at his japanese stats. His K rates have gone down for every yr that his ERA has dropped too. He's learned how to pitch by mastering his own repertoire and learning the league. Now a new league, with better competition will cause him to learn as he goes.

 

I am not saying he is going to bomb out or suck or anything. Actually, I am quite the contrary. But I think this kind of pitcher will react more like a rookie coming up with lights out stuff rather than a novelty pitcher who will be figured out over time. Granted, he wont be any old rookie, but a veteran going through the rookie growing pains of learning a superior league to anything he has experienced over a full season.

 

So wouldn't you agree that Matsuzaka will last longer than Nomo because he doesn't rely on one pitch? By the way, he has anywehere from 5-7 plus (some plus plus) pitches. I agree however with your K rates and pitching for contact statement. I'd ratehr him try and pitch for contact from the get go, as he needs to adjust to the 5 man rotation and such.

[jacksonianmarch]

Yes, I do. He will be the opposite of Nomo. He will start out better than Nomo finished during his prime, but will finish about as good as Nomo was in his prime. He'll be a good pitcher, I dont doubt that. But he doesnt have the "novelty" factor of the typical japanese pitcher. The crazy ass windup, the one pitch that moves in a funky ass way, something that is novel initially then gets adjusted to.

 

Mind you, he isnt Pedro, nor will be ever be. I dont think another Pedro will occur. But he will be good.

[example1]

Yes, I do. He will be the opposite of Nomo. He will start out better than Nomo finished during his prime, but will finish about as good as Nomo was in his prime. He'll be a good pitcher, I dont doubt that. But he doesnt have the "novelty" factor of the typical japanese pitcher. The crazy ass windup, the one pitch that moves in a funky ass way, something that is novel initially then gets adjusted to.

 

Mind you, he isnt Pedro, nor will be ever be. I dont think another Pedro will occur. But he will be good.

 

The 'novelty' is often all that some pitchers from Japan seem to have in the MLB, as I think you were trying to say above. However, the most common thing that people talk about when watching Matsuzaka is how hard he throws. Nomo threw hard too, but Matsuzaka pitches like an American power pitcher. I think he might pitch like David Cone in his prime: tons of different good pitches, all of them thrown at multiple speeds and all of them complimented by a very good fastball that kept hitters too honest for their own good. He compliments that arsenal with that 'scarry wildness' that the best pitchers have. They can be deadly accurate 85% of pitches, but on ANY pitch he might uncork one up and in. Then he uses that to his advantage by setting guys up for his slider, curve, change or forkball. He doesn't rely on any one pitch, which means that if he loses feeling for any pitch he's not screwed entirely. I've seen various reports saying that his best pitch is either his two-seamer or his forkball but from my casual observation (of every game available online) it seems his best skill is his relentless attacking of the strikezone with multiple good pitches, forcing teams to swing and thus getting himself very short innings. He finished more than 50% of his starts last year, which is NOT a common thing in Japan but is due to his low pitch counts and ability to be efficient.

[Cityofchampions33]

The 'novelty' is often all that some pitchers from Japan seem to have in the MLB' date=' as I think you were trying to say above. However, the most common thing that people talk about when watching Matsuzaka is how hard he throws. Nomo threw hard too, but Matsuzaka pitches like an American power pitcher. I think he might pitch like David Cone in his prime: tons of different good pitches, all of them thrown at multiple speeds and all of them complimented by a very good fastball that kept hitters too honest for their own good. He compliments that arsenal with that 'scarry wildness' that the best pitchers have. They can be deadly accurate 85% of pitches, but on ANY pitch he might uncork one up and in. Then he uses that to his advantage by setting guys up for his slider, curve, change or forkball. He doesn't rely on any one pitch, which means that if he loses feeling for any pitch he's not screwed entirely. I've seen various reports saying that his best pitch is either his two-seamer or his forkball but from my casual observation (of every game available online) it seems his best skill is his relentless attacking of the strikezone with multiple good pitches, forcing teams to swing and thus getting himself very short innings. He finished more than 50% of his starts last year, which is NOT a common thing in Japan but is due to his low pitch counts and ability to be efficient.[/quote']

 

Exactly, remember, Matsu is the BEST that's ever come out of Japan. He doesn't rely on a wierd wind-up, or one great pitch to win and will definately benefit from having Tek call the game for him. The scary thing about him, as a hitter, is that he doens't have just one strike-out pitch, it could be the two-seamer, the 12-6, th change-up, or the high cheese, you don't know. And if Tek utilizes this he can keep hitter soff balance all day, maybe without even adjusting speeds most of the game. That's why I think he can manage a very low #'s ERA in his first season. Plus if Beckett can rack up 16 with his ERA, Mastuzaka should easily get 15 if not more.

[jacksonianmarch]

Beckett had a closer last yr.

[rician blast]

And if Tek utilizes this he can keep hitter soff balance all day' date=' maybe without even adjusting speeds most of the game. [/quote']

 

good point.

 

but to me Tek didn't look to magical handling pitchers last year...I know the staff was at times decimated by injury, but even so, I did not come away from the '06 campaign feeling like Tek was all he'd been made out be in the prior 2 yrs in terms of handling the staff.

[BSN07]

You could easily see how important Tek was to the staff last yr. When he got injured the rookies all crashed and the Starting rotation tanked. Tek is more important to the staff then alot realize or give him credit for.

[jacksonianmarch]

You could easily see how important Tek was to the staff last yr. When he got injured the rookies all crashed and the Starting rotation tanked. Tek is more important to the staff then alot realize or give him credit for.

 

that staff was starting to crash and burn prior to his injury. His injury just kept up his teflon coat as a great pitchers catcher. Kinda like how Jeters gold gloves give the teflon shortstop an air of solid defense.

 

BTW, has Variteks arm gone to the shitter or what. He used to be tough to run on, but he cant throw anyone out anymore.

[BSN07]

There aren't too many catchers how throw guys out on a consistant basis really.

[jacksonianmarch]

Posada, Pudge, and thats about it off the top of my head.