RJ back to the Diamondbacks??

[jacksonianmarch]

LMAO' date=' "When it doesn't count, count on A-Rod" [/quote']

 

You're in bad hands with A-Rod.

[schillingouttheks]

Hey, I'd take him...

[VA Sox Fan]

Hey' date=' I'd take him...[/quote']

 

You can have him, no thanks! I'm just sayin'...he hasn't cut it on the big stage in NY, I don't believe he'd do any better on the Boston big stage....IMO :dunno:

[schillingouttheks]

Any rational fan would want A-Rod's talent on their team. If he were our shortstop I'd s*** myself.

[VA Sox Fan]

Any rational fan would want A-Rod's talent on their team. If he were our shortstop I'd s*** myself.

 

I would love to have his talent on my team, just not his personality ...you need the whole package. His under-acheivment in NY has been worse than the Unit's.

[schillingouttheks]

Keep in mind that he has 50,000 New Yorkers booing him almost every night when he should have their support. They had a short leash with him to begin with. If the guy you're booing is Mark Blowhorn, it's different. But when you have a guy like A-Rod who's just waiting to explode out of that funk, you support him. And when he finally does, I pray he doesn't do it to us.

[VA Sox Fan]

Keep in mind that he has 50' date='000 New Yorkers booing him almost every night when he should have their support. They had a short leash with him to begin with. If the guy you're booing is Mark Blowhorn, it's different. But when you have a guy like A-Rod who's just waiting to explode out of that funk, you support him. And when he finally does, I pray he doesn't do it to us.[/quote']

 

I understand that ( the booing etc)and don't agree with it. But after what he pulled in 2004 against us (w/ Arroyo/Tek and then Arroyo in the post season- game 5 if I'm not mistaken) I have no sympathy for him or belief that he'll "break out" . He's been in NY for 3 full seasons now.....explode out of the funk? Ok, well maybe the 4th season will be the charm. If it happens, I'll be the first to admit I was wrong.

[schillingouttheks]

Well, as long as the booing and the hostility continues, it's not going to happen. If I were A-Rod and I got a curtain call at some point this season for a walk off or something, I'd go to the top of the dugout and flip off all the fans. They deserve it.

[jacksonianmarch]

Well' date=' as long as the booing and the hostility continues, it's not going to happen. If I were A-Rod and I got a curtain call at some point this season for a walk off or something, I'd go to the top of the dugout and flip off all the fans. They deserve it.[/quote']

 

you see. He hit a walkoff last yr and refused to do the whole fan thing. That makes things worse. Sometimes as a player, you just have to suck it up, do the fanfare thing and be a man. ARod refused a curtain call on that day and it only got worse for him.

[VA Sox Fan]

No offense to anyone but f*** A-Fraud.

[jacksonianmarch]

No offense to anyone but f*** A-Fraud.

 

Chapter 1 Verse 1 of the bible according to Yankee-dom. Amen my sister, amen.

[a700hitter]

On another message board I read that John Sickles rates the 3 prospects received by the Yankees as the 18th, 19th, and 20th prospects in the D'Backs system, all getting grades of C+. I think I would trade our 18th, 19th and 20th prospects plus Tavarez for the Unit.

[jacksonianmarch]

Sickles is the only one who has Ohlendorf that low in the DBack system. He is 13th on scout.com. Now 13th in the DBack system (arguably the deepest system in baseball) is well ahead of 13th in the sox or yankee system. The top 4 in the DBack system are expected to start the yr in the majors. To put it into perspective, the DBacks have an opening at their #5 rotation position. The leading candidate for that role is their #15th prospect in Nippert. That is how deep this system is. Loaded with major league ready talent.

 

What I dont really get is that Cashman was offered Owings (their top rated pitching prospect, #6 on their list who was their minor league pitcher of the yr) and Vizcaino, yet turned it down. His target all along was Ohlendorf. He may have a scout or two who loved what they saw. I will tell you what though. Sinkerballers never seem to get the respect they deserve. I know Wang did not crack a top 10 the yr after he became a sinkerballer. Then he came to the bigs and now is our ace.

 

Now our system is one of the deepest pitching wise in the game. Last season, the system was rated 17th in the majors. This yr, after the sheffield trade, it was 6th. After this trade, it is likely in the top 5.

 

As for where they fit in the yankee top 10? Sickles wont have either of the prospects cracking the yankee top 10. As for scout.com, Ohlendorf will likely slide into the 9-11 slot as Garcia has slid out of the top 10 with arm injury, Sanchez and Whelan have endoubtedly moved into the yankee top 10 and Ohlendorf moves in front of Ian Kennedy.

 

I looked at Sickles list, and it seems to be a philosophical difference between scout.com and BA. Sickles seems to list players based on their ceilings without taking into account the years it will take to get there. Granted, if someone is a can't miss prospect in the lower levels, then fine, but the sheer fact that he had Ian Kennedy as the 5 in the yankee org shows his hand. Kennedy is likely to start the season in A ball, not even Tampa but lower. So he has a long way to go. Now what hurts Ohlendorf is ceiling. I am not fooling myself into thinking that a low 90s sinkerballer with plus control and command as his only plus attributes translates into anything but a mid rotation pitcher with a high end ceiling of a 2. This hurts Ohlendorf. Because he will never be rated highly as those who project ceiling first will put the guys with ace potential over a sinkerballers every day of the week. But as far as sure bets to make the majors, Ohlendorf is right there. As a matter of fact, he, Owings, and Nippert were originally going to go to camp battling for the last 2 spots in the DBack rotation with Nippert being nearly assured one of them. Now that RJ fills the 4 hole, you could assume Owings stays in the minors and Nippert takes the 5 for now. The fact that Ohlendorf was considered for the DBacks major league rotation without having thrown more than 5innings in AAA ball shows you what they think about him.

[ORS]

Personally, I think Sickel's way of ranking prospects is the right way to go about it. I think ceiling is completely dependent on talent and physical prowess, and it is what everyone is interested in ultimately. The fact that someone else is "closer" to the majors means little to me. All it proves is they have accomplished being born earlier, or, in other words, their "closer" has little to do with talent.

[jacksonianmarch]

Personally' date=' I think Sickel's way of ranking prospects is the right way to go about it. I think ceiling is completely dependent on talent and physical prowess, and it is what everyone is interested in ultimately. The fact that someone else is "closer" to the majors means little to me. All it proves is they have accomplished being born earlier, or, in other words, their "closer" has little to do with talent.[/quote']

 

Well, I dont think scout.com ranks their prospects 100% based on being closer, per se. But as you start putting it all together, being closer is certainly a boon. Plus, I just dont see how you can place pitchers drafted in this yrs draft so close to the top is all I am saying. Especially, when none of them were ticketed for the majors right away (I understand Millers high rating in Detroit). He has Bard as the #4 prospect on the sox, above Pedroia and Hansen, 2 guys who are major leaguers and expected to hold down roster spots. For the yanks, he had Kennedy as the 5, a guy who everyone in their right minds knows was an overdraft.

 

I just feel that ranking based on guys who are ticketed for low level places leaves you vulnerable to have egg on your face. And it makes it so that you write off a guy if he has one bad season, which isnt how it works. I recently made the choice to pay for one of these sites. I chose scout.com because they are a bit more conservative.

[jacksonianmarch]

Personally' date=' I think Sickel's way of ranking prospects is the right way to go about it. I think ceiling is completely dependent on talent and physical prowess, and it is what everyone is interested in ultimately. The fact that someone else is "closer" to the majors means little to me. All it proves is they have accomplished being born earlier, or, in other words, their "closer" has little to do with talent.[/quote']

 

One other thing that doesnt always get considered when it comes to pitching. For the most part, scouts will take stuff over command. The reason why Ohlendorf hasnt been given his just due is that he has one plus pitch and the rest is plus command and control.

[ORS]

One other thing that doesnt always get considered when it comes to pitching. For the most part' date=' scouts will take stuff over command. The reason why Ohlendorf hasnt been given his just due is that he has one plus pitch and the rest is plus command and control.[/quote']

That isn't true. Command is scouted and rated. In Ohlendorf's case, the fact that he has one good pitch with command and control speaks volumes about the needs of an MLB pitcher. History is rife with failed starters who had one plus pitch that just wasn't enough to get the job done. You've said so yourself. SPs need secondary pitches to make it over the long haul. I don't find it surprising that you appear to be going back on your previous posts now that a Yankee acquisition doesn't fit the mold. Very convenient.

[TheKilo]

The deal, as it is, gets a "meh" from me.

 

The Yankees aren't as good in 2007 without RJ. Mention whatever statistics/feelings you want, to me the Yankees are not as good. RJ every time out had the potential to be a dominant pitcher, and whoever replaces him won't have that.

 

Mussina is a year older. Pettite's elbow is just as big of a question mark as RJ's back is. He's coming back to the AL, which is a superior hitting league. Igawa is sompletely unproven, and while Matuszaka is as well, no one has ever callen Igawa "ace" material. Wang, the best of the bunch, is probably going to face some regression this year. Unless he learns to miss some more bats, I don't see how he can continue to pitch like he did last year. Right now, the Yankee rotation really doean't strike fear in my heart. Mussina and Wang are the best of the crowd, and unless Wang's peripherals improve I'm not so sure they're as good as people think.

 

edit - Unless Clemens signs in New York I think it's going to be difficult to replace those 17 wins.

[jacksonianmarch]

That isn't true. Command is scouted and rated. In Ohlendorf's case' date=' the fact that he has one good pitch with command and control speaks volumes about the needs of an MLB pitcher. History is rife with failed starters who had one plus pitch that just wasn't enough to get the job done. You've said so yourself. SPs need secondary pitches to make it over the long haul. I don't find it surprising that you appear to be going back on your previous posts now that a Yankee acquisition doesn't fit the mold. Very convenient.[/quote']

 

No, I said he only has one plus pitch. He has an average slider and change. He has 3 pitches.

[jacksonianmarch]

The deal, as it is, gets a "meh" from me.

 

The Yankees aren't as good in 2007 without RJ.

 

That is a very questionable statement with a lot of if's. If RJ is completely healthy, if RJ finds his fastball and slider, if the yankees get clemens, if Pavano is as healthy as they say, if, if, if. This statement above is far from a certainty in any way.

 

Mussina is a year older.

so is RJ and Schilling. Mussina last yr embraced his lack of velocity for the first time in his career. He changed himself from someone who is flat out dominant when the velocity is up to a consistently good starter. He wont be a hit or miss guy. He'll give consistent production so long as he gets on the field. Dont expect a bunch of shutouts or complete games, but dont bank on his production being a sine wave.

 

Pettite's elbow is just as big of a question mark as RJ's back is.

Completely wrong. Pettitte's "cranky elbow" only had him at a 2.8 era coming down the stretch, which would contradict those who thought his elbow was getting worse. And that bad elbow hasnt required surgery since 2004, and allowed him to make 68 starts over the past 2 yrs.

 

He's coming back to the AL, which is a superior hitting league.

you are right. His #s are going to bump. But who is the real pettitte. The guy who was a 2.39ERA in 05 or 2.80 ERA down the stretch or the 5.28ERA he posted pre-allstar. Either one, he will expect a bump in those numbers. He is far from a certainty in production, but from his track record, he'll be in the 4's and give us 200 innings, which is more than what RJ was gonna give us.

 

Igawa is sompletely unproven, and while Matuszaka is as well, no one has ever callen Igawa "ace" material.

 

nor does he need to be. He is being relied upon as a 4. As I have said before, I have no idea what his production will be. But he has a history of averaging 200IP over the last 6 yrs, so at least he'll take the mound for us and give us innings.

 

Wang, the best of the bunch, is probably going to face some regression this year. Unless he learns to miss some more bats, I don't see how he can continue to pitch like he did last year.

See this is where you continue to buy the hype. This isnt Aaron Small or Shawn Chacon beating all of the odds with s*** stuff. This is a guy with a 95mph CONSISTENT sinker with sick bite. He throws it nearly every pitch. He isnt going to change. Last yr was his second in the bigs and still nobody adjusted. So long as he throws that thing over the plate, he will be fine. Obviously there are seasonal variations in ERA, but dont bank on a precipitous drop in production.

 

Right now, the Yankee rotation really doean't strike fear in my heart. Mussina and Wang are the best of the crowd, and unless Wang's peripherals improve I'm not so sure they're as good as people think.

 

edit - Unless Clemens signs in New York I think it's going to be difficult to replace those 17 wins.

 

The Yankee rotation doesnt need to strike fear in anyone. Their offense and back end of the pen will. This team needs consistent production from the rotation. Nothing spectacular as they arent expected to carry the team. But they will need to get 900+ innings out of them and then good things will happen.

 

This rotation doesnt have the expectations or the pressure on them like the sox rotation does. The sox will live and die by their rotation. The offense is good, but it isnt 03-05 good and the bullpen needs to be used as little as possible.

[ORS]

Jacko, did you ever play football as a DB, because you back pedal quite well. Prospects with one plus pitch and unremarkable secondary pitches are thought of as having one pitch, and I've seen you say as much about non-Yankee prospects. Care to reconcile those comments?

 

For what it's worth, I've seen quotes from Pettitte's father that the Yankees "signed a guy with a sore elbow". It's still a question mark.

 

Doesn't matter how many times you say it, and at this point, I think you need to say so often to convince yourself, other than Rivera there are no consistent performers in either 'pen. Given the number of quality arms that are options for both squads, they'll have enough of them on an "on" year to be successful. Some of the Yankee guys you are touting will disappoint while some of the Sox guys you dismiss will surprise. Book it. Such is the nature of relief pitching.

[riverside sluggers]

The offense is still an upgrade over 2006's version. And remember that the 2006 Sox offense was one of the best by the All-Star Break even with the inconsistencies in the rotation that is also a downgrade compared to this year's version

 

As Ive said last year's opening day rotation threw a combined 614 innings. Id find it hard believe that will replicate. Jackson you actually think that all 5 Yankee starters will get close to or exceed 200 innings? Thats basically banking that each of them will make every start, and will average 6.5 innings or longer

[jacksonianmarch]

Jacko, did you ever play football as a DB, because you back pedal quite well. Prospects with one plus pitch and unremarkable secondary pitches are thought of as having one pitch, and I've seen you say as much about non-Yankee prospects. Care to reconcile those comments?

 

For what it's worth, I've seen quotes from Pettitte's father that the Yankees "signed a guy with a sore elbow". It's still a question mark.

 

Doesn't matter how many times you say it, and at this point, I think you need to say so often to convince yourself, other than Rivera there are no consistent performers in either 'pen. Given the number of quality arms that are options for both squads, they'll have enough of them on an "on" year to be successful. Some of the Yankee guys you are touting will disappoint while some of the Sox guys you dismiss will surprise. Book it. Such is the nature of relief pitching.

 

No, I NEVER say that. I say that having one pitch or two pitches does not a starter make. I never said they need to be plus pitches, they just need to locate them. He has a plus sinking fastball, an MLB average slider, and an MLB average change. I NEVER said that you need 3 or more plus pitches. You need 3 or more pitches you have confidence in and you can locate. They dont need plus movement or K potential.

[jacksonianmarch]

The offense is still an upgrade over 2006's version. And remember that the 2006 Sox offense was one of the best by the All-Star Break even with the inconsistencies in the rotation that is also a downgrade compared to this year's version

 

As Ive said last year's opening day rotation threw a combined 614 innings. Id find it hard believe that will replicate. Jackson you actually think that all 5 Yankee starters will get close to or exceed 200 innings? Thats basically banking that each of them will make every start, and will average 6.5 innings or longer

 

I do not expect all of the 5 starters to exceed 200. I am going on track record for the top 4. Wang, Mussina, Pettitte, and Igawa averaged over 200IP per last season. As for the 5 spot, who knows. There are no Jaret Wrights or Shawn Chacon's which would lock you into 5IP at most per start in that 5 hole. But there arent any sure things. Thing is though, there are multiple options, and all 3 who will be given the shot out of ST have a track record of giving innings when they are healthy.

[riverside sluggers]

So you do believe that all 5 starters (or at the least the top 4) will be healthy and make every start for the 2007 season?

[jacksonianmarch]

So you do believe that all 5 starters (or at the least the top 4) will be healthy and make every start for the 2007 season?

 

nobody can make that guarantee. But it is a better likelihood than it was a year ago or even 2 yrs ago.

[riverside sluggers]

And for the Sox you have all 5 not likely to sustain a whole season, and average under 175 innings each or worse

[jacksonianmarch]

And for the Sox you have all 5 not likely to sustain a whole season' date=' and average under 175 innings each or worse[/quote']

 

Things are different on that end. Beckett has a yearly injury history and Paps is a new starter this yr coming off an arm injury and Matsuzaka is going to be handled with kid gloves at least initially.

[jacksonianmarch]

overall, the sox rotation will reach 900 innings and likely surpass it.

[kreinbihl34]

Paps had a SHOULDER injury; starting will prevent it. Therefore there's not a lot to worry about.