Nixon or Drew

[Cityofchampions33]

I wouldn't mind one of their relievers, people forget to look beyond Lidge.

[Beckett95]

Who would you like to see in RF opening Day?

 

1.) Drew

2.) Willy Mo

3.) Trot

4.) Other

 

I say Drew because he is great defensively and gives Manny the best protection in the lineup

[Cityofchampions33]

Id be ahppy with Wily Mo, though Drew is an inetresting option

[Rdsxmbnt]

drew easily, we need a very good 5th hitter

[adam123]

drew for sure but he has an wash rep ?.. just hope he can play a whole season

[Rdsxmbnt]

as for CL im really not sold on Lidge and giving up Wily Mo, the pre 06' Lidge for sure but he really struggled all year and only really had one good month. One guy I might look at getting (no idea if hes available) is Mike Gonzalez, the Pirates would probaly consider moving him if they got a nice deal.

[Cocos Disciples]

I really like Drew's OBP and RBI numbers. He would be a good fit. I can see us getting him.

[jacksonianmarch]

if you like a guy who wont play through pain, and will play for his #s and not for his team, then JD Drew is your guy. No guts all stats. A sabremetricians dream.

[Texas_Red_Sox_Fan]

Soriano has had bigger numbers for years and he would love to play against Boy George and the Yankees

[pudge]

I havent read this entire thread so forgive me if this has already been brought up.But if the sox sign drew what does that mean for wily mo?I dont think the sox are high on mo anymore .Why else would they look at drew?I for one couldnt be happier to see the sox use wily as trade bait and cut ties with him.

[riverside sluggers]

Well Pudge, according to today's boston herald... Boston has been talking with Houston and Wily Mo's name has popped up. Houston is in need of a center fielder and adding more offense to their team but they would likely require more than him. Hansen, perhaps? The Sox are said to be interested in receiving any of their top 3 relievers: Lidge, Qualls, or Wheeler

[Rdsxmbnt]

i honestly wouldnt add anything for any of those guys unless it was crisp

[Bosoxwest]

Right now Wheeler is the best of the bunch. Lidge is well-known, and rightly so, for his 2004 dominance, but has declined each year since in every meaningful statistic. The big problem of course - last year nearly 20% of the balls he let into the air left the yard. A lot of that is the ballpark, but by comparison Wheeler's number was 6.5% last year.

 

Lidge: (apologies, can't figure out the table tags here)

 

YEAR 2004 2005 2006

ERA+ 235 186 85

K/9 16.5 13.6 11.9

 

BB/9 3.10 3.00 4.10

HR/9 0.84 0.66 1.14

HR/F 11% 12% 18%

 

Wheeler's K rate jumped above 9 last year, and his RA was 2.21 (ERA+ 193). His LOB percentage was 87.4%. In fact, with the exception of BB/9 (where he "skyrocketed" from 2.1 to 2.5 last year) Wheeler has improved in nearly every meaningful category since 2004. You can just check it out yourself here - http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats//main/player/index.php?lastName=Wheeler&firstName=Dan.

 

If we give up WMP, he needs to be the guy.

[seabeachfred]

Does everyone forget that we got Wily Mo to play RF? We don't need either of them, and getting Drew is a clear slap in the face to Pena ... one I'm sure he wouldn't forget when he contract is up. The only way Pena will ever improve is if he's in the lineup every day, and if he's not starting in RF this year ... he will only be here as long as his current contract.

 

A lot of you guys complained when we traded Arroyo for Pena ... do you want that trade to go down as a complete waste?

 

Hammer, it is time to admit that the trade WAS a complete waste. Sure, Pena has tremendous power, but the guy cannot hit a breaking pitch and in the clutch that is all he sees and that is why he is so poor in the those situations. Combine it with the fact that the guy is a total disaster in the outfield and you know why the Red Sox are thinking of trading him while his value is still somewhat high.:dunno: :dunno: :dunno:

[riverside sluggers]

http://www.philly.com/mld/dailynews/sports/16024552.htm

 

The Philadelphia news had in its daily "tidbits", that the Sox are close to signing JD Drew to 4 years/$48 million

[Bosoxwest]

http://www.philly.com/mld/dailynews/sports/16024552.htm

 

The Philadelphia news had in its daily "tidbits", that the Sox are close to signing JD Drew to 4 years/$48 million

 

If this is true then either Wily Mo or Manny is getting dealt, and I think we all would guess WMP is the logical choice, especially in light of the rumors. It's pretty certain he won't be kept as a 4th outfielder, given his limited improvement in that role. Either he plays every day to (maybe) realize his potential, or he's a wasted spot.

[ORS]

Right now Wheeler is the best of the bunch. Lidge is well-known, and rightly so, for his 2004 dominance, but has declined each year since in every meaningful statistic. The big problem of course - last year nearly 20% of the balls he let into the air left the yard. A lot of that is the ballpark, but by comparison Wheeler's number was 6.5% last year.

 

Lidge: (apologies, can't figure out the table tags here)

 

YEAR 2004 2005 2006

ERA+ 235 186 85

K/9 16.5 13.6 11.9

 

BB/9 3.10 3.00 4.10

HR/9 0.84 0.66 1.14

HR/F 11% 12% 18%

 

Wheeler's K rate jumped above 9 last year, and his RA was 2.21 (ERA+ 193). His LOB percentage was 87.4%. In fact, with the exception of BB/9 (where he "skyrocketed" from 2.1 to 2.5 last year) Wheeler has improved in nearly every meaningful category since 2004. You can just check it out yourself here - http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats//main/player/index.php?lastName=Wheeler&firstName=Dan.

 

If we give up WMP, he needs to be the guy.

Are those rates adjusted? The Baseball Cube lists them differently, and while he's slipped from '04, his K rate last year was only .27 below career average.

 

Lidge@TheBaseballCube.com

 

I don't think WMP gets Wheeler because he's their closer moving forward. Right now, IMO, is the time to get Lidge while his trade value is low. WMP has too many deficiencies to get a contender's closer, but I think he could be enough to get their fallen from grace guy who had flukey bad year. His HR/9 just about doubled from his '03-'05 average, and that doesn't surprise me since his BB/9 did too. I think the HRs are tied to the loss of control and he missed his spot with a meatball more often. Players don't tend to just lose the plate overnight. I think last year may have just been a bad year, and they should act now while the price is low.

[ksushi]

Wily Mo was also mentioned in Houston talks. Makes sense, but I think the Drew rumor is just that... a rumor.

[Bosoxwest]

Are those rates adjusted? The Baseball Cube lists them differently, and while he's slipped from '04, his K rate last year was only .27 below career average.

 

Lidge@TheBaseballCube.com

 

I don't think WMP gets Wheeler because he's their closer moving forward. Right now, IMO, is the time to get Lidge while his trade value is low. WMP has too many deficiencies to get a contender's closer, but I think he could be enough to get their fallen from grace guy who had flukey bad year. His HR/9 just about doubled from his '03-'05 average, and that doesn't surprise me since his BB/9 did too. I think the HRs are tied to the loss of control and he missed his spot with a meatball more often. Players don't tend to just lose the plate overnight. I think last year may have just been a bad year, and they should act now while the price is low.

 

I completely agree with the analysis on why the HR/9 jumped, but it's the three-year decline that bothers me. I don't think we can pin it all on the HR rate, since the total number increased is just 5 from 2005-2006. He gave up an additional 26 R in only 8 more innings last year than in 2005. His FIP jumped by a full run. LOB% declined by 15%, after a 7% drop the year prior - that's the one that scares you. I'm concerned last year doesn't look like an aberration so much as a trend.

 

Granted, pitching in that bandbox can't be great for your confidence, so maybe that is the solution here. Since the peripherals are still pretty good and it's the actual performance that is hurting, it could be that he is just mentally not there and can't make the pitches he needs to when it counts. I just worry about overpaying (figuratively) for a guy who's maybe in decline, and whose out pitch (slider) is notoriously hard on the arm.

 

That said, if it's Lidge or Linebrink, I'll take Lidge faster than you can say Giambi's Needle.

 

Here's the report card on Lidge from a good Astros blog: http://blog.kir.com/archives/003505.asp

 

Brad Lidge: F Lidge (5.28 ERA/-6 RSAA) was one of the worst pitchers on the Stros pitching staff this season. It's not difficult to understand why -- he simply has lost his ability to throw his devastating slider for strikes consistently. As a result, hitters are laying off Lidge's slider and laying into his fastball, which Lidge does not locate well. Ever since his breakout performance in 2004 (26 RSAA), Lidge has been trending steadily downward (only an 8 RSAA over the past two seasons). The more consistent Wheeler now has a better RSAA than Lidge over the past three seasons and should be the closer going into the 2007 season. Although his trade value has plummeted over the past year, the Stros should definitely listen to reasonable offers for Lidge. It is looking less likely with each passing season that he will ever regain his dominating 2004 level of performance.

[HeadOfSoxNation]

Lidge is daaaaaaaangerous. I take a huge pass on him. I'd rather sign Gagne to an incentive-laden contract than bring in Lidge. It sounds weird to trace it back to oneeee thing, but he hasn't been the same pitcher since Pujols hit that moon shot off of him in the NLCS. Maybe a ball that has yet to land now over a year later still does have some lasting affects?

 

Does anyone still think that Hansen is the closer of the future and just isn't ready to take on the job yet...or are we encouraging dealing him?

[ORS]

Ever since his breakout performance in 2004 (26 RSAA)' date=' Lidge has been trending steadily downward (only an 8 RSAA over the past two seasons). The more consistent Wheeler now has a better RSAA than Lidge over the past three seasons and should be the closer going into the 2007 season. Although his trade value has plummeted over the past year, the Stros should definitely listen to reasonable offers for Lidge. It is looking less likely with each passing season that he will ever regain his dominating 2004 level of performance.[/quote']

Is it really a three year trend, though? He was unbelievable in '04. Best in the game good. But he preceded it with two good to very good years in '03 and '05. I think they are his more realistic baseline. When you sandwich a standard year between a career year and a poor one it can look like a trend. I'm not so sure it was one. Timing could account for the appearance of things just as likely as decline.

 

The bit about his slider is concerning, but I have to think a guy doesn't lose the ability to throw a pitch he's thrown for years for good. He'd be a risk, but that appears to be the flavor of the offseason.

[Bosoxwest]

Is it really a three year trend, though? He was unbelievable in '04. Best in the game good. But he preceded it with two good to very good years in '03 and '05. I think they are his more realistic baseline. When you sandwich a standard year between a career year and a poor one it can look like a trend. I'm not so sure it was one. Timing could account for the appearance of things just as likely as decline.

 

The bit about his slider is concerning, but I have to think a guy doesn't lose the ability to throw a pitch he's thrown for years for good. He'd be a risk, but that appears to be the flavor of the offseason.

 

Well, the LOB% is definitely trending down, but you may be right, he could have just had a real bad off year due to confidence problems. My sideline concern is that he's pitching through something, a la Clement. I'd want a very thorough examination with some imaging. Certainly, his upside is dominance. I'd still prefer Wheeler though.

 

Haha. So much for Nixon vs. Drew. Sorry dopes.

[rician blast]

since we're speaking of Lidge in the "Nixon/Drew" thread let me add a more general thought on relief pitching.

 

Remember the good old days of "bullpen by committee"...circa 2003? Well it just so happens that in 2003, the Sox were lambasted from far and wide about going forth with no proven closer...yet come September they had developed one of the best bullpen's in the league with Embree/Timlin setting up Williamson.

 

I know its history now, but that trio had not, if I'm not mistaken, given up a playoff run through game 6 of the ALCS...and it was only Grady Little's gaffe, IMO, that cost the Sox a trip to the '03 World Series.

 

Is it a HUGE benefit to a team to have a premier closer that you have tremendous faith in right out of the gate each season? Absolutely. But In 2003 the Sox DEVELOPED a strong closing situation. In 2004 they had Foulkie, obviously. In 2006 they once again retooled and Paps filled the void. I expect they'll do so again, they're not going to go after starting pitching the way they have without addressing the back end of games.

 

Whether its a shot at Lidge, Gagne, Speier or some other more creative solution, I expect that hole will be addressed.

[seabeachfred]

Man, after reading all these posts I think I need a drink real bad. I thought I had this thing fairly wired as to who was going where but I'm more confused than ever. In my opinion, though, we should sign J.D. Drew and put him in right field, bat him fifth and expect a consistent and solid year from him, something along the lines of 300--26-108, good defense, great OBA, and even a few stolen bases. We need someone consistent behind Manny because that killed us last year. We also need to make the right decision on closer and set-up man, and Drew's signing would enable us to put guys like Pena, Crisp, Murphy and Hinske up as potential bargaining chips for needed pitching. To me it's a no brainer.

[adam123]

i would do a trade like that but no crisp i think hes gonna prove his worth this year his hand was hurt he should get another year

[Mr Crunchy]

jd drew??

anyone else remember what johnny damon went to ny for last year??

4/52

we're offering drew 4/48?

the f/o is getting me a bit sketchy over their plans

 

this i dont like and now am wondering what the f*** happened last fall that they wouldnt offer damon this kind of money.

 

drew is the same guy that refused to play in philly when he was drafted and went to st louis instead?

 

big gamble here

the kid is perpetually hurt,never played 150games and went over 140 twice in his career

hes trot nixon with a bit more power

[riverside sluggers]

Again, the Sox FO didnt up their offer because Boras made a last-effort call and told them there was a 5 year deal on the table. They didnt know the ammount of money the "other team" was offering. With Damon's health concerns popping up by year 3 or so along with top prospect Jacoby Ellsbury rsiing up the system like a cannon, they couldnt commit to Boras' lie of a counter offer deal

[Cocos Disciples]

jd drew??

anyone else remember what johnny damon went to ny for last year??

4/52

we're offering drew 4/48?

the f/o is getting me a bit sketchy over their plans

 

this i dont like and now am wondering what the f*** happened last fall that they wouldnt offer damon this kind of money.

 

drew is the same guy that refused to play in philly when he was drafted and went to st louis instead?

 

big gamble here

the kid is perpetually hurt,never played 150games and went over 140 twice in his career

hes trot nixon with a bit more power

 

He's Trot Nixon with a .400 OBP and 100 RBI.

[a700hitter]

jd drew??

anyone else remember what johnny damon went to ny for last year??

4/52

we're offering drew 4/48?

the f/o is getting me a bit sketchy over their plans

 

this i dont like and now am wondering what the f*** happened last fall that they wouldnt offer damon this kind of money.

 

drew is the same guy that refused to play in philly when he was drafted and went to st louis instead?

 

big gamble here

the kid is perpetually hurt,never played 150games and went over 140 twice in his career

hes trot nixon with a bit more power

Crunchy, I am with you on this. Drew to me is an expensive, but only slightly better version of NIxon who we could probably re-sign for 2 years for $8 million, and he could share RF with Wily Mo. To give Drew almost what Damon got from the Yankees is just baffling. Damon was 32 (1 year older than Drew). He didn't have Drew's Injury history. Plus, Damon had the speed element as part of his game and he was a CF. I don't get it.

[riverside sluggers]

Only slightly better than Trot? Take a look again at the last 3 year comparison between Drew & Trot. It weighs much in Drew's favor.

 

And no Im not for having a Trot/Wily Mo platoon for 2 more years