Theo Epstein: Justly praised or overrated?

[RavenOfProphecy]

I said that the best way to assure a good draft class is to get more early round picks. You said that wasn't true because HS players are risky acquisitions. Your refutation of my point is totally irrelevant because it refutes a point I never made.

 

You also said that 20% (an approximation, I'm sure -- but whatever rate works fine for me) will go on to MLB. Assuming that 20% is correct, wouldn't more picks be the best way to assure you get an impact player each year? More picks means more chances to draft a player that can make it. Do you deny this?

 

Okay, let me rephrase that: quality is more important than quantity. Your theory is basically to draft a whole lot of guys and hope that one or two of them are decent. I was saying that by looking at production, you can do a lot better than that with fewer draft picks. Also, for the 20% thing, that was actually used in Moneyball. Billy Beane and Paul DePodesta conducted a research of high-school pitcher which showed that less than 25% of the high school pitchers drafted made it into the MLB. I just used 20% because it seemed about right. Anyways, I'm not a fan of drafting 10 high school guys and then being happy if two turn out good, I'd rather draft five proven college guys and have three or four become solid players.

[RavenOfProphecy]

with all these 100 win seasons why hasnt he won a playoff series??

he is after all a genious

 

you would think some october success would come before being labeled a genious rather than a perrenial underachiever

 

Basically, he's able to put together teams that are successful in the regular season at getting wins for as cheap as possible, but in the playoffs, he's not really able to do much other than pray because the big teams can afford more talent and are taking on some of his principles, I guess you'd call it.

[CrespoBlows]

with all these 100 win seasons why hasnt he won a playoff series??

he is after all a genious

 

you would think some october success would come before being labeled a genious rather than a perrenial underachiever

 

Bad luck? Jeter's flip, Nixon's HR, Koch's meltdown.

 

Beane assembled some of the best rosters in the 90's, all under $40 million dollars. Remember, this is when no other low payroll team even approached .500. Just because, you think that Moneyball is "pussyball" doesn't mean you should be blind to that fact that Beane managed to vault the A's from one of the worst franchises in the mid-90's to a perrenial World Series contender. (In a year)

 

Give Beane $100 million dollars, he'd win a World Series or two.

[ORS]

Okay, let me rephrase that: quality is more important than quantity. Your theory is basically to draft a whole lot of guys and hope that one or two of them are decent. I was saying that by looking at production, you can do a lot better than that with fewer draft picks. Also, for the 20% thing, that was actually used in Moneyball. Billy Beane and Paul DePodesta conducted a research of high-school pitcher which showed that less than 25% of the high school pitchers drafted made it into the MLB. I just used 20% because it seemed about right. Anyways, I'm not a fan of drafting 10 high school guys and then being happy if two turn out good, I'd rather draft five proven college guys and have three or four become solid players.

Got babble?

 

Seriously, who thinks they are just going to draft guys at random? They aren't sitting in the war room on draft day just calling the next name off an alphabetical list. Scouting, research, and signability are considered for each player. Obviously quality trumps quantity, but they are not exclusive of one another. It's possible to draft for quality, wait for it, here it comes, and have a lot of picks. Never once did I say, "just draft a whole bunch of guys and hope for something decent". I think you are going into this discussion with an ass-load of preconceived notions. Please try not to assign any of them to what I have said.

 

I don't care what the rate is. More picks is better than less. Theo has said he wants to revamp the farm while staying competitive. He gets credit for doing that IMO.

[Mr Crunchy]

whoa whoa whoa here

heres the lineup from 01 that ny dismantled

damon

tejada

giambi

dye

chavez

jeremy giambi

hernandez

long

menechino

 

with the big 3 of hudson mulder and zito and isringhausen as a closer

 

there wass no f***ing excuse not to win with that team

none

i wont go into the fact that oakland started gil heredia in game 5 of the alds the year before who promptly gave up 6 to start the game or

the fact that the twins knocked them out of the water in 2002 when they were the odds on favorite to win the whole thing or

the meltdown that happened to them in 2003 when they had us by the short hairs either

 

someone here has a saying

history will not accept difficulty as an excuse

 

in any one of these 4 seasons they couldve won it all

in each case they didnt even win a playoff series

 

thats why i consider him and that franchise to be underachievers

[RavenOfProphecy]

Got babble?

 

Seriously, who thinks they are just going to draft guys at random? They aren't sitting in the war room on draft day just calling the next name off an alphabetical list. Scouting, research, and signability are considered for each player. Obviously quality trumps quantity, but they are not exclusive of one another. It's possible to draft for quality, wait for it, here it comes, and have a lot of picks. Never once did I say, "just draft a whole bunch of guys and hope for something decent". I think you are going into this discussion with an ass-load of preconceived notions. Please try not to assign any of them to what I have said.

 

I don't care what the rate is. More picks is better than less. Theo has said he wants to revamp the farm while staying competitive. He gets credit for doing that IMO.

 

Got PMS?

 

Basically, you said earlier that the best thing to do in a draft is get a lot of picks, thus raising your chance to get a great player. We all know that, but it's more important to find an efficient way of determining whether or not a player will be successful in the major leagues. Also, having a lot of picks generally occurs when type A or B free agents are let go (resulting in extra compensatory picks), meaning that you're basically breaking up a championship team in order to have a good team in four years. He's done a good job so far of keeping together a good major league team, but how long do you think it will go on when you're letting your major-leaguers leave for a compensatory pick or two?

[riverside sluggers]

Bad luck? Jeter's flip, Nixon's HR, Koch's meltdown.

 

One of base running gaffes, but the funniest. Eric Byrnes trying to pick a fight with Varitek while not not knowing he never touched home plate to begin with

[RavenOfProphecy]

Anyways, was there not abundant proof in Moneyball that the only real reason to religiously follow the philosophy was because you didn't have money to keep your young players? This seems to be Theo's strategy:

 

"Okay, I have Johnny Damon. But if I get rid of him and pick up a pick, I can get a guy who might be Damon in four years (Jacoby Ellsbury) and then, after a year or two, I can get rid of him at age 26 or so to save money and then pick up a rent-a-player to play until yet another possible Damon is ready four years later!" It's basically a continuous cycle of mediocrity. In ten years, you might have four years of prospects playing and six yeas of development and rent-a-players.

[jsinger121]

Anyways, was there not abundant proof in Moneyball that the only real reason to religiously follow the philosophy was because you didn't have money to keep your young players? This seems to be Theo's strategy:

 

"Okay, I have Johnny Damon. But if I get rid of him and pick up a pick, I can get a guy who might be Damon in four years (Jacoby Ellsbury) and then, after a year or two, I can get rid of him at age 26 or so to save money and then pick up a rent-a-player to play until yet another possible Damon is ready four years later!" It's basically a continuous cycle of mediocrity. In ten years, you might have four years of prospects playing and six yeas of development and rent-a-players.

 

The difference between Theo and moneyball is Theo has the money to sign these players instead of losing them. He has lost guys who are in there 30's not there 20's. Big difference as well as having a bigger checkbook than beane.

[RavenOfProphecy]

The difference between Theo and moneyball is Theo has the money to sign these players instead of losing them. He has lost guys who are in there 30's not there 20's. Big difference as well as having a bigger checkbook than beane.

 

What I wonder, though, is, what's the point of waiting four years for someone who might develop and then having to extend their contract when you can sign someone for the same contract who's under 30, and proven?

[Mr Crunchy]

agreed and im not arguing about oaklands small payroll or the benefits and detractors of money ball

i actually prefer small ball but this aint about strategy

my point is this

 

he obviously had the talent in july to compete

all he needed was another reliever or another rent a player to get over the top

he never pulled the trigger and instead played it safe

 

good for him

 

it shows in the attendance how much they love and admire him in oakland

[Mr Crunchy]

duke signed nomar to a big deal locking him up for 7 yrs

beane couldve done this with several of his superstars on the cheap

he didnt

he chose to deal his studs or let them leave via free agency

 

if the a's played in the al east they'd be battling tampa for the 4th spot and beane would be just another vegetable

[ORS]

Got PMS?

 

Basically, you said earlier that the best thing to do in a draft is get a lot of picks, thus raising your chance to get a great player. We all know that, but it's more important to find an efficient way of determining whether or not a player will be successful in the major leagues. Also, having a lot of picks generally occurs when type A or B free agents are let go (resulting in extra compensatory picks), meaning that you're basically breaking up a championship team in order to have a good team in four years. He's done a good job so far of keeping together a good major league team, but how long do you think it will go on when you're letting your major-leaguers leave for a compensatory pick or two?

Nope, no PMS. I don't take well to people telling me what my point is and being completely wrong. Don't make assumptions or construct false points out of what I have said, and we'll be fine.

 

Obviously you can't have a revolving door of impact players coming and going via FA in order to hit the supplemental rounds every year. You need some continuity. However, when the goal is to rebuild a depleted farm system, you can do it when you have some aging stars hitting the market. I think that is why we saw with the dismantling of the '04 squad. Agree with it or not, I think the goal was to build 'their' (the new ownership's) team and farm system after the championship while staying competitive. They have accomplished both goals.

 

You were quick to hang the onus of not signing Pete, JD, and Lowe on Epstein. You would be right if the goal was simply to field a winning team in '05 and '06. However, I think the evidence points to them having their eyes on 3-5 years down the road, so, in terms of what they are trying to do, they have been successful.

[CrespoBlows]

duke signed nomar to a big deal locking him up for 7 yrs

beane couldve done this with several of his superstars on the cheap

he didnt

he chose to deal his studs or let them leave via free agency

 

if the a's played in the al east they'd be battling tampa for the 4th spot and beane would be just another vegetable

 

What are you talking about? You think Beane could have signed Giambi for cheap? Maybe 16 million is cheap to the Yankees, but that's 40% of the A's budget. Perhaps the $12 million to Hudson was "cheap."

 

If the A's played in the AL East, they wouldn't have played the Yankees in 2001 or 2002. Maybe, it all plays out differently.

 

he obviously had the talent in july to compete

all he needed was another reliever or another rent a player to get over the top

he never pulled the trigger and instead played it safe

 

Ricardo Rincon and Ray Durham were two deals made by Beane. I didn't get them over the top, but to say he "played it safe" is wrong.

[riverside sluggers]

What I wonder, though, is, what's the point of waiting four years for someone who might develop and then having to extend their contract when you can sign someone for the same contract who's under 30, and proven?

 

Thats what Theo & co. did with Coco Crisp. Im not sold on this 1st season to speculate it was a bad trade because he was out for almost 50 games, cant yet get a full assesment of what he can do in a full season of Boston. Each season before this had seen his avg, obp, extra base hits rise. They extended him to a 4 year deal. I see him holding down the fort, then later move back to left field if/when Ellsbury comes up to Boston

[RavenOfProphecy]

Nope, no PMS. I don't take well to people telling me what my point is and being completely wrong. Don't make assumptions or construct false points out of what I have said, and we'll be fine.

 

Obviously you can't have a revolving door of impact players coming and going via FA in order to hit the supplemental rounds every year. You need some continuity. However, when the goal is to rebuild a depleted farm system, you can do it when you have some aging stars hitting the market. I think that is why we saw with the dismantling of the '04 squad. Agree with it or not, I think the goal was to build 'their' (the new ownership's) team and farm system after the championship while staying competitive. They have accomplished both goals.

 

You were quick to hang the onus of not signing Pete, JD, and Lowe on Epstein. You would be right if the goal was simply to field a winning team in '05 and '06. However, I think the evidence points to them having their eyes on 3-5 years down the road, so, in terms of what they are trying to do, they have been successful.

 

Just checking. I have the same stance of people who don't get the point of my stuff as well. You're mistaken if you think I wrote this to somehow turn this message board against Theo Epstein or make Dan Duquette out to be a baseball god. I'm saying that Duquette is very underappreciated in Boston (remember the "Duquette Sucks!" chants?), and that Theo hasn't really done much other than add a few pieces (some might say unintentionally, as in the case of David Ortiz) to what was Duquette's team.

 

It is obvious, as you pointed out, that they want to make the team their own, and it's certainly their right to do t hat if they feel, but it might not be the best course for the success of the Red Sox as a baseball team. I can't argue with the results so far, but taking a team who had six winning seasons out of eight under Duquette (one of the losing ones being the first year) and getting rid of almost all of the people who were part of the solution in less than three years doesn't seem like the best way to get back to the World Series.

[Cocos Disciples]

How do you unintentionally sign someone? They obviously saw something in David Ortiz and they jumped at the oppurtunity. He signed quality ballplayers without attitude deals (Mueller, Bellhorn, etc.) while Duquette didn't really have a concern for the clubhouse (Everett)

[RavenOfProphecy]

Thats what Theo & co. did with Coco Crisp. Im not sold on this 1st season to speculate it was a bad trade because he was out for almost 50 games, cant yet get a full assesment of what he can do in a full season of Boston. Each season before this had seen his avg, obp, extra base hits rise. They extended him to a 4 year deal. I see him holding down the fort, then later move back to left field if/when Ellsbury comes up to Boston

 

Coco was the guy I had in mind when I was writing about that. Of course, I was happy to have Coco Crisp for this year, but I'm sure they could've gotten a hitter of the same quality as Crisp for cheaper and kept Marte (Baseball America's #14 prospect this year) and Mota. Hell, even Jeremy Giambi wouldn't have been bad, save for his defensive ability. He gets on base a lot, has some power, and his lack of speed isn't really exploited in Boston. I think Alex Sanchez is a free agent, he's got a lot of the same tools as Coco Crisp, plus steroids! He was batting .346 with a .373 OBP in 2005, and he's a lefty leadoff guy for under $1,000,000 (or at least close) who's also under thirty. It's not like you're missing out on much, at least based on so far.

[RavenOfProphecy]

How do you unintentionally sign someone? They obviously saw something in David Ortiz and they jumped at the oppurtunity. He signed quality ballplayers without attitude deals (Mueller' date=' Bellhorn, etc.) while Duquette didn't really have a concern for the clubhouse (Everett)[/quote']

 

As Mr. Crunchy said before, Kevin Millar and co. were Theo's first options at first base, and David Ortiz was basically signed for chemistry with Pedro (maybe to try and provide incentive for him to re-sign) but ended up surprising everyone and getting promoted to a full-time job.

[Mr Crunchy]

dule built winners in detroit even montreal before the 94strike

in fact the 94 expos had the best record in baseball i believe when the season ended

anyways

he was essentially a failure in milwaukee

he had a great eye for talent

he had 0 people skills

0

and this is why i think hes out of baseball

 

he was the guy who barred johnny pesky from the lockeroom??

f***ing jerk

he was also the guy who got us petey,the best pitcher ive ever seen and manny,the best right handed hitter ive ever seen

he got us the premier lead off hitter in the game in damon

he got us tek and lowe for the suicidal heathcliffe slocumb

he didnt sign mo vaughn

and if he did sign raja we never wouldve seen petey imo

 

ive hated every single gm in this town and will probably always hate them becuase i dont agree with them 100%

 

redsox baseball is my birth right

the general managers obligation is to make my summer and fall pleasant anyway he see fit

 

i was at game 3 in fenway last year,ive seen 200 sox games live if ive seen 1

theo didnt do anything last year to make my summer&fall better

 

its my birthright to be a sox fan

its theos responsibility to make my life better as the gm

i like a new starter on my plate every christmas(beckett)

i like a new starter on my plate every august 1st(??????)

 

i think we're good enough to win it all as it stands today

however

i fear that ny will get better come 8-1 and chicago as well so we cant rest on what we have

we need to improve

 

god help me i do love my redsox and baseball to an unhealthy degree

[riverside sluggers]

Coco was the guy I had in mind when I was writing about that. Of course, I was happy to have Coco Crisp for this year, but I'm sure they could've gotten a hitter of the same quality as Crisp for cheaper and kept Marte (Baseball America's #14 prospect this year) and Mota. Hell, even Jeremy Giambi wouldn't have been bad, save for his defensive ability. He gets on base a lot, has some power, and his lack of speed isn't really exploited in Boston. I think Alex Sanchez is a free agent, he's got a lot of the same tools as Coco Crisp, plus steroids! He was batting .346 with a .373 OBP in 2005, and he's a lefty leadoff guy for under $1,000,000 (or at least close) who's also under thirty. It's not like you're missing out on much, at least based on so far.

 

You criticizing Theo for trading away Mota?

6.21 ERA... 9 HRs in 37.2 innings... opposing .298 avg... .350 avg against him with RISP/2 outs. Theo why didnt you hold onto him?

 

About Crisp, he was the best player available

Jeremy Reed from Mariners- He's great with the glove but no so much with the bat. His small time in the majors has seen him getting injured with his dirt dog style of play. The Mariners were asking for Papelbon or Lester in return.

Jason Michaels from Philadelphia- Yes Cleveland did get him for just Arthur Rhodes. But do you think the Red Sox would be so lucky? Hell no, Phillies like every other team in baseball knew that the Sox were very much in need of a center fielder. Thus asking for the farm from Boston

Adam Stern- His Triple A season numbers are showing he has 4th outfielder potential.

List any other center fielders who were free agents/trade chips last offseason

[RavenOfProphecy]

You criticizing Theo for trading away Mota?

6.21 ERA... 9 HRs in 37.2 innings... opposing .298 avg... .350 avg against him with RISP/2 outs. Theo why didnt you hold onto him?

 

About Crisp, he was the best player available

Jeremy Reed from Mariners- He's great with the glove but no so much with the bat. His small time in the majors has seen him getting injured with his dirt dog style of play. The Mariners were asking for Papelbon or Lester in return.

Jason Michaels from Philadelphia- Yes Cleveland did get him for just Arthur Rhodes. But do you think the Red Sox would be so lucky? Hell no, Phillies like every other team in baseball knew that the Sox were very much in need of a center fielder. Thus asking for the farm from Boston

Adam Stern- His Triple A season numbers are showing he has 4th outfielder potential.

List any other center fielders who were free agents/trade chips last offseason

 

I'm not criticizing Theo for getting rid of Mota, I'm just pointing out that it wasn't enough to give away our best prospect, we had to throw in pitching too. As far as Reed:

 

"He's great with the glove but no so much with the bat (Hey, that's one thing better than Coco.) His small time in the majors has seen him getting injured (Who was that guy who missed a third of the season with a broken finger again?) with his dirt dog style of play. The Mariners were asking for Papelbon or Lester in return (Both of these guys are better, but don't forget, we traded away someone considered to be a better prospect for a player who hasn't done so well.)"

[Anuj09]

idk about Marte

Coco will come around i think he will step it up soon

[riverside sluggers]

I'm not criticizing Theo for getting rid of Mota, I'm just pointing out that it wasn't enough to give away our best prospect, we had to throw in pitching too. As far as Reed:

 

"He's great with the glove but no so much with the bat (Hey, that's one thing better than Coco.) His small time in the majors has seen him getting injured (Who was that guy who missed a third of the season with a broken finger again?) with his dirt dog style of play. The Mariners were asking for Papelbon or Lester in return (Both of these guys are better, but don't forget, we traded away someone considered to be a better prospect for a player who hasn't done so well.)"

 

Reed last season I believe missed half of it. This year... in April he broke his wrist and will miss the rest of the season. Yeaaaa Id say thats worst than Coco being out for 42 days.

 

Yes we gave up pitching, a 6.21 ERA reliever this season and has had arm problems recently. We got in return Riske, so we did get pitching in return

 

Coco is Willie Harris? Because I dont see his stats as being a hack job in his first 4 seasons in the majors. Each season he saw his avg rise up, his OBP rise up, his extra base hits rise up (more than Damon last season). Far way too early to call out Crisp and send him packing

[RavenOfProphecy]

Okay, some of the free agents:

 

Johnny Damon, Brian Giles, Juan Encarnacion, Jacque Jones, Matt Lawton, Reggie Sanders, Preston Wilson, Craig Biggio, Jay Payton, Rondell White, Randy Winn, Carl Everett.

 

Why not sign Lawton or Payton (again)? Lawton only signed for 1 year, $400k, and he was a .277 batter in 2004 with a .366 OBP and 20 HRs. In 101 games with the Pirates last year, he hit 10 HRs and stole 16 bases with a .273 average and .380 OBP. Payton left last year because he wasn't starting, but if the Sox had thought ahead, they could've kept him. Granted, he's awful this year, but you never know.

[schillingouttheks]

Wasn't Lawton caught red handed with steroids or something?

[riverside sluggers]

Lawton signed with the Mariners in October, give him a starting job? Countless posts/threads would be made on here about this being a bad move

 

Jay Payton left Boston in a Shea Hillenbrand moment and got in a face-to-face shouting match with Tito. Yes lets bring that back. By the way, his option was picked up by the A's in October

 

Carl Everett??? Please tell me youre kidding

 

Juan Encarcion was signed in November. Damon took his time until Christmas to decide

 

Sanders is a bigger injury risk than Coco by far. Oh and hes just batting 240 this season

 

Craig Biggio is a 2nd baseman, 40 years old, and is long known to retire an Astro

 

Preston Wilson, picked up before Damon made his decision

 

Brian Giles resigned with Padres in November

 

Randy Winn, San Fran is his home. He was never considered looking for another team

 

Rondell White... yea how was his first half with the Twins??????

[SCM33]

I think this whole argument should just be put to rest. Dan Duquette did whatever it is he did, and Theo Epstein won a WS. Its really as simple as that. You can say whatever you want about who Duquette brought in, or who Theo brought in.....but every general manager who takes a job has holdovers from the previous GM. Its not like you start with zero players on the 40 man roster and then go out picking and choosing.

 

Fact is, Duquette may have done some nice things......but Theo put the finishing touch on an incomplete team. This was Theos team, not Duquettes and I think its unfair to hold it against Theo that he didnt completely put together the team from ground up. I think the ring on Theos finger, and the fact that Duquette HAS NOT BEEN OFFERED A JOB SINCE speak loud volumes about their abilities.

[Mr Crunchy]

nice post chin music

do you think we win without petey lowe tek manny damon cabrerra and meintxxxx??

[RavenOfProphecy]

Lawton signed with the Mariners in October, give him a starting job? Countless posts/threads would be made on here about this being a bad move

 

Jay Payton left Boston in a Shea Hillenbrand moment and got in a face-to-face shouting match with Tito. Yes lets bring that back. By the way, his option was picked up by the A's in October

 

Carl Everett??? Please tell me youre kidding

 

Juan Encarcion was signed in November. Damon took his time until Christmas to decide

 

Sanders is a bigger injury risk than Coco by far. Oh and hes just batting 240 this season

 

Craig Biggio is a 2nd baseman, 40 years old, and is long known to retire an Astro

 

Preston Wilson, picked up before Damon made his decision

 

Brian Giles resigned with Padres in November

 

Randy Winn, San Fran is his home. He was never considered looking for another team

 

Rondell White... yea how was his first half with the Twins??????

 

Obviously none of those guys are very good, but I was just listing the free agent outfielders available.