Theo Epstein: Justly praised or overrated?

[ORS]

I was aware of the first four players, but none of the last three are exactly the kind of players that make a GM's career.

I think you are missing my point.

 

Those last 3 (and Lowrie, Bard, Caleb Clay) are the types of players that can make a GM's career, if the GM is still around when they are ready for the highest level. You were quick to give Duke credit for his drafts, so I think Theo deserves the same treatment.

 

When Theo took over, the farm system was completely depleted of impact talent because Duke used prospects like currency. Letting the big name FAs walk gave the Sox 7 extra early round picks the last two years. Early rounds are where the potential impact talent comes from. I think they made the decision to retool the farm system as soon as they won a championship. When you let one FA walk while replacing him with another, you still net a pick in the supplemental round. I think the goal was to take advantage of that loophole. They went out, spent the coin needed to put a championship caliber club together, and won it all. After that, they have some leeway with me to restructure.

 

Like I said earlier, I think the fanboys overrate him, but the second guessers do just as bad a job underrating him. Well, at the very least, they don't read between the lines and look at the motives/long term goals that some decisions indicate.

[yeszir]

Theo is also overrated as a guitar player. I've been to two hot stove cool music concerts and I must say, I have not been impressed.

[RavenOfProphecy]

I did read it, and you continually defend Duquette and point out Theos mistakes. You compared Clemens leaving to Theo allowing Pedro to leave, but money AND numbers aside, it appears the Sox are doing just fine without him, and I still think to this day.....as much as I loved Pedro, that he made the right decision. Had he signed Pedro, and Pedro got hurt, that would have been a very wrong decision and he would have been crucified for it.

 

The thing about it is, we knew Petey wasnt in the twilight, but it was a risk to resign. Duquette let it be known that he thought Clemens was on the downside of his career, and here he is ten years later still pitching well.

 

I know what you're saying about Clemens leaving and the team declining after that, but we declined after we got rid of Pedro, no? Here's what happened after we dropped Clemens:

 

1996: 85-77 (Third Place, AL East) - Last year of Clemens

1997: 78-84 (Fourth Place, AL East) - First year without Clemens

1998: 92-70 (Second Place, AL East, Wild Card) - Second year without Clemens

 

It seems as though the team took a hit originally but overall, the team improved seven wins on the 1996 team. Now, let's look at the Pedro situation:

 

2004: 98-64 (Second Place, Al East, World Series Champions) - Last year of Pedro

2005: 95-67 (Second Place, AL East, Wild Card) - First year without him

 

Dropping seven wins and dropping three but being eliminated two rounds earlier in the playoffs are both bad. It's not like we did better without Pedro. Clement somehow got to 18-10 last year, but he's 5-5 this year (23-15 cumulative) and another of his moves, David Wells, hasn't been a smash hit, either. Basically, if you're saying it's a risk to re-sign Pedro for four years, isn't it a risk to give a big-money contract to a guy coming off of a 9-13 season and a multi-year deal to a guy on the wrong side of 40?

[RavenOfProphecy]

Kim’s 13.50 ERA was from his one appearance in the playoffs where he allowed 1 run in 0.2 IP. For the 2003 season he had a 3.18 ERA. He came on to be a starter, and because of the need for a closer he was moved into the role. Kim did eventually stink up the joint as the season went on , but I believe it was determined he had some kind of injury, similar to what DiNardo has now.

The 3 saves you mention for Williamson were from 3 save opportunities that he had in the ALCS.

Looking back you can say that Theo, in his first year as manager, misjudged the need for a solid closer, but the team did make it to the playoffs without one. Theo did learn from bullpen by committee problem and signed Foulke after the season ended.

 

My point was what you pointed out in the third paragraph. Still, most of his trades and signings were ill-advised in that spot (other than Scott Williamson, who's not even with the team.) Kim was scouted horribly. I believe I read somewhere that he only threw about 86 on the gun but it was misread by scouts as being much faster (this may have been due to his delivery.) It might have been in Johnny Damon's book. Theo did do a good job signing Keith Foulke (who probably was the World Series MVP in my opinion) but even that doesn't seem too smart in retrospect because I think we all know he's got nothing left (or at least, it looks that way.)

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

Theo is also overrated as a guitar player. I've been to two hot stove cool music concerts and I must say, I have not been impressed.

 

Peter Gammons is nasty though; that man can absolutly rock.

[RavenOfProphecy]

I think you are missing my point.

 

Those last 3 (and Lowrie, Bard, Caleb Clay) are the types of players that can make a GM's career, if the GM is still around when they are ready for the highest level. You were quick to give Duke credit for his drafts, so I think Theo deserves the same treatment.

 

When Theo took over, the farm system was completely depleted of impact talent because Duke used prospects like currency. Letting the big name FAs walk gave the Sox 7 extra early round picks the last two years. Early rounds are where the potential impact talent comes from. I think they made the decision to retool the farm system as soon as they won a championship. When you let one FA walk while replacing him with another, you still net a pick in the supplemental round. I think the goal was to take advantage of that loophole. They went out, spent the coin needed to put a championship caliber club together, and won it all. After that, they have some leeway with me to restructure.

 

Like I said earlier, I think the fanboys overrate him, but the second guessers do just as bad a job underrating him. Well, at the very least, they don't read between the lines and look at the motives/long term goals that some decisions indicate.

 

It's true that Dan Duquette traded away a lot of prospects, and correct me if I'm wrong, but he brought up far more established players than Theo (obviously, because he was there longer, but hey, is Jon Lester not our top prospect, at least until tomorrow? We can't give Theo full credit yet for drafting good prospects. I think we have to see that those prospects are actually as good as advertised before we go out and do that. Rocco Baldelli was a #2 prospect, but he hasn't been a great draft pick. I'm not going to go look at it right now, but judging by other people on that list under him, I'm sure they could have made a better pick. Josh Hamilton, Sean Burroughs, Juan Cruz, Ryan Anderson, Jon Rauch...all were high top-100 guys (I think all but Hamilton were in the top ten) and none have done much of anything on the major leagues. So, I will take a wait-and-see approach with our minor league talent and hope for the best.

[rician blast]

Dropping seven wins and dropping three but being eliminated two rounds earlier in the playoffs are both bad. It's not like we did better without Pedro.

 

its about the future when these moves are made, so a year over previous year comparison is not fair...the deal with Petey was his demand (12-13m per year) over 4-5 years had the Sox FO wondering what they'd have in year 3 and 4 with a sometimes fragile, primadona pitcher.

 

oh and another thing. Let's not fall into the trap of believing Theo operates autonomously in that FO. Larry Lucchino has, and has always had, a big role in decision making for this organization. Remember Theo was off on sabbatical when the Sox landed Beckett and Lowell, despite Texas anteing up Hank Blalock (who doesn't make much, which was important to the Marlins) and their top pitching prospect. And I'll guarantee ya that the deal wasn't pulled off by the assistant GMs.

[RavenOfProphecy]

its about the future when these moves are made, so a year over previous year comparison is not fair...the deal with Petey was his demand (12-13m per year) over 4-5 years had the Sox FO wondering what they'd have in year 3 and 4 with a sometimes fragile, primadona pitcher.

 

oh and another thing. Let's not fall into the trap of believing Theo operates autonomously in that FO. Larry Lucchino has, and has always had, a big role in decision making for this organization. Remember Theo was off on sabbatical when the Sox landed Beckett and Lowell, despite Texas anteing up Hank Blalock (who doesn't make much, which was important to the Marlins) and their top pitching prospect. And I'll guarantee ya that the deal wasn't pulled off by the assistant GMs.

 

Okay, for the second thing, that's pretty much a granted. So I'm not going to spend much time responding to that, but for the first thing...I know where you're coming from, but Pedro was what, 32 when he asked for a four year deal? That would make him about 36 at the end of his contract. There are PLENTY of old pitchers still playing and doing a hell of a job. A lot of the best guys are still up past 36. Curt Schilling, John Smoltz, Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson, hell, when David Wells was 36, he was a pretty good pitcher. If you'd put Pedro up there with the first four guys I'd mentioned, then you have to assume that he'd be a great pitcher over each of the four years.

 

Personally, I would find it more risky to try and replace the wins by Pedro Martinez (50 wins) and Derek Lowe (52) over the past three years with an pitcher with a losing record and a 40+ year-old man (yes, Derek Lowe won more games than Pedro over three years. Go figure.) Matt Clement is 18-11 so far, and Wells is 15-8 or so. So basically, these two combined aren't going to reach Pedro's total. So far this season we've paid $14 million for five wins and six losses from the two combined. That's almost three million a win.

 

On a side note, does anyone know where I can find the team payrolls from 1994-2002? I want to see how much Dan Duquette paid for his team.

[Mr Crunchy]

duquttes team won the world series in 2004

lets be clear on this

petey lowe manny damon tek meintxxx and cabrerra were all due to the duke

i give theo credit for trading nomie for cabs and meintxxx

those 2 goldglovers were solid down the stretch

and dealing fossum for schill was a no brainer but lets face facts

theo wanted vasquez,not schilling and the yanks beat him to the punch

theo wanted contreras and bought the entire hotel where contreras was staying

cashman got him,not theo

theo wanted carl pavano

cashman got him too

 

it was theo who brought in papi

but dont forget

he signed millar and jeremy giambi to be their 1b and ortiz was brought as an after thought cause he was tight with petey

 

this is a great subject and i could go on for years here but lets start with duke not signing clemens

clemens wanted to pitch closer to his family in texas and for a winner

after getting the biggest contract in bball history he proceeded to go what??

39-40 over 5 years i think??

despite this

duke offered him 7M per for 3 years and roger left to fullfill his destiny to pitch for a winner closer to his family in texas by accepting 32M/4yrs

from the last place team in canada

f*** clemens for loafing for 5 years and f*** him for not saying it was about the money

 

speaking of which

mo vaugh

""eddie its not about the money i got 25million in the bank""

sure mo

....duke offered him good money but not 72/6 like anaheim did

mo left and we saved millions not to mention the fact that we didnt have his lard ass around our necks for 6 years of disabled list trips

 

theo is young

hes a local guy

and happened to be in the right place at the right time but dont think for a minute theo does anything without lucky luchinos blessing

 

the book is still open on this arroyo thing and i for 1 am still besides myself with rage over this

lets see what happens down the stretch this year

if theo gets trumped again by ny and fails to win the division i will say he f***ed up and should be crucified for trading pitching for what amounts to be a 5th outfielder

[riverside sluggers]

After a very disappointing year which saw Curt Schilling and Keith Foulke completely underperform (below league average), Theo left the Red Sox.

 

Schil gets a mulligan as he had played hurt all last season and at times was questioning if that was it for him.

[rician blast]

the book is still open on this arroyo thing and i for 1 am still besides myself with rage over this

lets see what happens down the stretch this year

if theo gets trumped again by ny and fails to win the division i will say he f***ed up and should be crucified for trading pitching for what amounts to be a 5th outfielder

 

I like your post...all of it...but I want to focus on this last part. For ME, personally, the book is not open and never will be open again on the Arroyo trade.

 

If Wily Mo hits .290., 30 jacks, 100 rbis in 2008, it'll not erase the basic idea in my mind that you don't trade decent starting pitching for anything other than a proven commidity.

 

It's like making the first or last out of an inning at third base or throwing behind a runner and letting him advance. Ya just don't do it.

 

I'm not a see, I told you so, it all worked out in the end kind of guy. This trade was just plain dumb, IMO, and I still don't blame just Theo...Larry is right there beside him.

[riverside sluggers]

We can't give Theo full credit yet for drafting good prospects. I think we have to see that those prospects are actually as good as advertised before we go out and do that.

 

Jonathan Papelbon

Craig Hansen (He's just 22 so better times are ahead for him)

 

waiting in wings

Dustin Pedroia

Jacoby Ellsbury

Michael Bowden

Clay Bucholz

[riverside sluggers]

I like your post...all of it...but I want to focus on this last part. For ME, personally, the book is not open and never will be open again on the Arroyo trade.

 

If Wily Mo hits .290., 30 jacks, 100 rbis in 2008, it'll not erase the basic idea in my mind that you don't trade decent starting pitching for anything other than a proven commidity.

 

It's like making the first or last out of an inning at third base or throwing behind a runner and letting him advance. Ya just don't do it.

 

I'm not a see, I told you so, it all worked out in the end kind of guy. This trade was just plain dumb, IMO, and I still don't blame just Theo...Larry is right there beside him.

 

So you'll still condemn the Sox if Wily Mo becomes a lethal slugger for us?

[Mr Crunchy]

so long as dee snyder jj johnson miss pauley and the lenny dinardo experiment continue to be trotted out there 20% of our starts then ya man

 

lethal slugger or a 5th outfielder??

nick esasky hit 35 hrs for us the year before he left town and then retired

larry parrish hit over 30 then we let him go into retirement and tony armas sr did as well

do i need to go on here?

phil plantier

sam horn

dick stewart

danny fukin cater

 

many of y'all have short memories

pitching is the key to winning in baseball

always was

always will be

its the only game where the defense puts the ball in play

good pitching beats good hitting 99.9% of the time when all things are equel

 

i truly hope wily mo is a stud for us for 15 years but id rather have arroyo at this point and time for the above mentioned reasons

[RavenOfProphecy]

Jonathan Papelbon

Craig Hansen (He's just 22 so better times are ahead for him)

 

waiting in wings

Dustin Pedroia

Jacoby Ellsbury

Michael Bowden

Clay Bucholz

 

Duquette brought up Nomar Garciaparra and Shea Hillenbrand (both have done more than Papelbon and Hansen), and had Casey Fossum, Manny Delcarmen, Freddy Sanchez, Kevin Youkilis, Kelly Shoppach, Jon Lester, Brandon Moss etc. waiting in the wings. EDIT: I mean, Pedroia, Ellsbury, etc. could flop in the majors and bat .240. We don't know. Same with Moss. But at least Duquette was responsible for a league-average pitcher, a good reliever, a .350 batter, and guy with an on-base over .400, a quality catcher, a 5-0 pitcher (and our top prospect), and a former top-100 guy in the wings. Seems like a good minor league system to me.

[rician blast]

So you'll still condemn the Sox if Wily Mo becomes a lethal slugger for us?

 

 

condemn the Sox? no.

 

Disagree with the trade? yes because I'll remember that in 2006 the Red Sox were involved in a tight divisional race and could have used the innings-eating Arroyo instead of a backup outfielder.

 

I remember when the Sox chose not to retain Roger Clemens. I was in total agreement, as he had just come off a mediocre stint despite be the highest paid pitcher in baseball (subject to check). When he won several more Cy Youngs I didn't turn around and say they should have resigned him.

 

You make deals based on what you know at the time...including potential of those you acquire...but I maintain that typically you do not move succesful starting pitching for a 5th OF who might learn to hit a curve ball some day. Especially not when you are already competetive...if you are out of a race, things are different...but in this case I don't agree at all with the Arroyo trade.

[ORS]

Duke's track record in the draft is obviously better now. He's had more drafts and we are further removed from when those players were drafted so the maturation process is complete for most of them. Theo's guys are just now starting to hit the bigs, and only the fast movers at that. Time is needed to do a fair comparison.

 

Raven, you mentioned earlier that most prospects don't pan out so we shouldn't give Theo too much credit for what he's done in the draft yet. Then you went on to list a bunch of players that have been underwhelming when compared to the hype they received. It is undeniable that the draft has a high bust/star ratio. Knowing that the attrition rate is high, what would be the best way to improve draft performance? In my view, the best way to assure a successful draft class in each year is to increase the number of early round picks. That is where Theo deserves some credit, IMO. But the 'win now' crowd doesn't have the patience for prospects.

[RavenOfProphecy]

Duke's track record in the draft is obviously better now. He's had more drafts and we are further removed from when those players were drafted so the maturation process is complete for most of them. Theo's guys are just now starting to hit the bigs, and only the fast movers at that. Time is needed to do a fair comparison.

 

Raven, you mentioned earlier that most prospects don't pan out so we shouldn't give Theo too much credit for what he's done in the draft yet. Then you went on to list a bunch of players that have been underwhelming when compared to the hype they received. It is undeniable that the draft has a high bust/star ratio. Knowing that the attrition rate is high, what would be the best way to improve draft performance? In my view, the best way to assure a successful draft class in each year is to increase the number of early round picks. That is where Theo deserves some credit, IMO. But the 'win now' crowd doesn't have the patience for prospects.

 

The problem I have with your post is the quote, "Knowing that the attrition rate is high, what would be the best way to improve draft performance? In my view, the best way to assure a successful draft class in each year is to increase the number of early round picks." This is not true, at least in my opinion. If you have ten picks in the first three rounds and you draft nine high school pitchers, are you going to have a good draft? Probably not, because only about 20% of those players become good. That's two solid players out of ten. I believe you should draft for production in college first and foremost - while many of the great baseball players did not attend college, they are still far more risky, as the level of competition in high school is nowhere near the MLB, or even single A ball. Look at Josh Hamilton and Billy Beane. Those guys were supposed to be superstars, and they aren't anything special in retrospect.

[jsinger121]

Duquette did not draft either Jon Lester or Brandon Moss as he was already fired at the time. Both were drafted in June of 2002.

[ORS]

The problem I have with your post is the quote, "Knowing that the attrition rate is high, what would be the best way to improve draft performance? In my view, the best way to assure a successful draft class in each year is to increase the number of early round picks." This is not true, at least in my opinion. If you have ten picks in the first three rounds and you draft nine high school pitchers, are you going to have a good draft? Probably not, because only about 20% of those players become good. That's two solid players out of ten. I believe you should draft for production in college first and foremost - while many of the great baseball players did not attend college, they are still far more risky, as the level of competition in high school is nowhere near the MLB, or even single A ball. Look at Josh Hamilton and Billy Beane. Those guys were supposed to be superstars, and they aren't anything special in retrospect.

Where have the Sox taken HS players with 9 of their first 10 picks? They have been conservatively mixing high-risk/high-reward HS players with more polished NCAA players. Sorry, but your hypothetical doesn't matchup well with their draft history.

 

EDIT: Nice of you to state that what you quoted wasn't true while making it seem like it asserted something that it didn't. That's like me saying, "I like cookies", and your response is, "That's not true because it's July". Try and keep up.

[Mr Crunchy]

please with this billy beane ********

when he wins something other than the al west we can talk about his genious

until then

hes just another small market farm club for the real players in the american league

[RavenOfProphecy]

Where have the Sox taken HS players with 9 of their first 10 picks? They have been conservatively mixing high-risk/high-reward HS players with more polished NCAA players. Sorry, but your hypothetical doesn't matchup well with their draft history.

 

EDIT: Nice of you to state that what you quoted wasn't true while making it seem like it asserted something that it didn't. That's like me saying, "I like cookies", and your response is, "That's not true because it's July". Try and keep up.

 

I wasn't pointing out anything specific with the Red Sox, I was just pointing out what I consider to be a pretty big flaw in your strategy. And as for the edit, I have no idea what you're talking about. Care to elaborate?

[RavenOfProphecy]

Duquette did not draft either Jon Lester or Brandon Moss as he was already fired at the time. Both were drafted in June of 2002.

 

Okay, so basically what you're saying is that the MLB teams don't scout year-round and they just threw away any scouting Dan Duquette may have compiled and drafted those guys based on what, a month? I don't mean to sound harsh, but it's kind of like the whole "co-GM" thing, where the team was running kind of in line with what the administration had done prior to Theo leaving.

[jsinger121]

Okay, so basically what you're saying is that the MLB teams don't scout year-round and they just threw away any scouting Dan Duquette may have compiled and drafted those guys based on what, a month? I don't mean to sound harsh, but it's kind of like the whole "co-GM" thing, where the team was running kind of in line with what the administration had done prior to Theo leaving.

 

Duquette didn't pick the guy so he can't get the damn credit. Had he been around he might not even drafted those 2 guys. to say that he drafted them when he didn't is clearly not looking at the facts.

[RavenOfProphecy]

Duquette didn't pick the guy so he can't get the damn credit. Had he been around he might not even drafted those 2 guys. to say that he drafted them when he didn't is clearly not looking at the facts.

 

That's true. Basically, then, Mike Port is the guy who drafted Lester (even though we all know it was most likely Larry Lucchino's idea.) The point I was trying to make is that the top prospect in our farm system was not produced by our general manager at the time. This topic didn't start off as a thing between Dan Duquette and Theo Epstein, I was just trying to see what you guys thought about Theo and then it somehow degenerated into a bunch of people bickering like little kids. As an effect of this, however, it's not really fair to say that Theo Epstein had anything to do with transactions occuring from his resignation to his return (Lowell, Beckett, Marte, etc.) because he wasn't officially the general manger of the team.

[CrespoBlows]

please with this billy beane ********

when he wins something other than the al west we can talk about his genious

until then

hes just another small market farm club for the real players in the american league

 

When you can assemble a 100 win team for 40 million dollars, you deserve every credit in the world.

[jsinger121]

That's true. As an effect of this, however, it's not really fair to say that Theo Epstein had anything to do with transactions occuring from his resignation to his return (Lowell, Beckett, Marte, etc.) because he wasn't officially the general manger of the team.

 

I don't think he gets any credit and he shouldn't but its pretty clear he was giving input on those transactions behind the scenes.

[ORS]

I wasn't pointing out anything specific with the Red Sox, I was just pointing out what I consider to be a pretty big flaw in your strategy. And as for the edit, I have no idea what you're talking about. Care to elaborate?

I said that the best way to assure a good draft class is to get more early round picks. You said that wasn't true because HS players are risky acquisitions. Your refutation of my point is totally irrelevant because it refutes a point I never made.

 

You also said that 20% (an approximation, I'm sure -- but whatever rate works fine for me) will go on to MLB. Assuming that 20% is correct, wouldn't more picks be the best way to assure you get an impact player each year? More picks means more chances to draft a player that can make it. Do you deny this?

[RavenOfProphecy]

I don't think he gets any credit and he shouldn't but its pretty clear he was giving input on those transactions behind the scenes.

 

That's speculative at best. There's nothing to indicate that Theo had any say in this. It's just a case of people believing what they want to believe.

[Mr Crunchy]

When you can assemble a 100 win team for 40 million dollars, you deserve every credit in the world.

 

with all these 100 win seasons why hasnt he won a playoff series??

he is after all a genious

 

you would think some october success would come before being labeled a genious rather than a perrenial underachiever